Compliance programme Current practice and future plans in India · 2016. 6. 14. · Compliance...

Compliance programmeCurrent practice and future plans in

India

Anumita RoychowdhuryCentre for Science and Environment

Can we prevent another dieselgate?

FIA FoundationLondon, June 8, 2016

2

Diesel related emissions high in India......

Source: based on National Ambient Air Quality Status, CPCB for 2009 and 2012 (latest available)

NO2 profile of NAMP citiesPM10 profile of NAMP cities

More cities in grip of toxic pollution

Majority of urban population exposed to unacceptable levels of pollution. 95% of Indians are breathing air pollution levels above WHO guidelines

New threat in our cities…….Multi-pollutant crisis

City wide average summer ozone concentrations (8 hourly average, April and May, 2015 and 2016)

Source: Based on DPCC air quality data

Dieselisation poses serious threat...

Diesel related pollution rising

Source: CSE’s Estimation of Economic Survey of Delhi 2014-15

Carbon monoxidelevels havedecoupled frommotorisation

PM and Nox trendsstill corelate withmotorisation anddieselisation

Serious health concerns...

2012 epidemiological study on children in Delhi (CPCB and Chittaranjan National Cancer Institute of Kolkata): -- Covered about 12,000 school-going children from 36 schools.

-- Every third child has reduced lung function. Sputum of Delhi’s children contains four times more iron-laden macrophages than those from cleaner environs, indicating pulmonary hemorrhage.

-- The levels of these biomarkers in children have been found to be higher in areas with high PM10 levels.

Sputum cytology of a 14-year old girl, showing abundance of particle laden AM

Alveolar macrophage: the biomarker of air pollution

Exposed group; Kolkata taxi driver

Increase in AM number

8

Growing toxic risk…

33% increase inlung cancerincidence sincethe middle oflast decade inDelhi – Highestamong all metrocities….(National CancerRegistry Programme)

9

Delhi: After a short respite pollution curve turns upward

Based on CPCB data

Particulate pollution decline and rise again due to rapid increase in vehicle numbers NO2 levels rising steadily

10

PM2.5 level in Delhi: stabilising again?

130

168

143151

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0

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2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

mic

rogr

amm

e pe

r cub

ic m

etre

PM2.5

Standard/ safe level

Linear (PM2.5)

Source: Submission of Delhi Pollution Control Committee in High Court 2016

11

Motorisation based on outdated polluting technology and fuels locking up enormous pollution and ill health…..

Need stringent and preventive action and decision here to influence the future stock -- several times higher than the legacy stock

Source: CSE

In lakh

12Source: India, Europe compiled from Diesel Net, USA data provided by Axel Friedrich, Germany

Technology lag…..

Diesel car PM norms in g/km

Note: Europe has additionally introduced particle number standards at Euro V levelFuture norms of US and Europe are tightening NOx norms for diesel more

Chart1

2000200020002000

2001200120012001

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2021202120212021

2022202220222022

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EU

USA

India selected cities

India rest of the country

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Sheet1

Column120002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025

EU0.05000.05000.05000.05000.05000.02500.02500.02500.02500.00500.00500.00500.00500.00500.00500.00500.00500.00500.00500.00500.00500.00500.00500.00500.00500.0050

USA0.06210.06210.06210.06210.00610.00610.00610.00610.00610.00610.00610.00610.00610.00610.00610.00610.00610.00610.00610.00610.00610.00610.00610.00610.00610.0061

India selected cities0.14000.08000.08000.08000.08000.05000.05000.05000.05000.05000.02500.02500.02500.02500.02500.02500.02500.02500.02500.02500.0050.0050.0050.0050.0050.005

India rest of the country0.14000.14000.14000.14000.14000.08000.08000.08000.08000.08000.05000.05000.05000.05000.05000.05000.05000.02500.02500.02500.0050.0050.0050.0050.0050.005

To resize chart data range, drag lower right corner of range.

Rapid dieselisation of car segment ……..

2000: 4% of new car sales2011: 49% …. Subsequently more than half

Even at a moderate and flat growth rate of 20% a year, the total diesel cars in 2020 will be double the size of the total car sales today.

Source: Based on market data

Enticing price gaps

Difference between retail prices of diesel and petrol

Source: Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas Gas

70.2

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Petrol Diesel

Cars are second largest user of diesel

Source: Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas

Pollution profile of Delhi and number game of pollution

Source:IIT Kanpur

17

New policy paradigm

Steering committee report on air pollution and health of Union Ministry of Health and Family Welfare

-- Concentration management to exposure management to prioritizes policies and actions

--- What matters is not just the absolute emissions but how much of the pollution is breathed in by individuals, -- “intake fraction” --

How close we are to the pollution source, what are we inhaling, and how much time we spend close to the pollution source than what occurs generally in the air that is influenced by climate and weather.

--- Ambient concentration is not a good surrogate for total air pollution risk, --cannot indicate exposure and health outcome

18

Ambient vs Exposure

Chennai

PM2.5 emission apportionment

PM2.5 exposure apportionment

Source: S Guttikunda – SIM Air

In Delhi and Kolkata, the people’s exposure to vehicle exhaust is 3 to 4 times higher than the world average

Estimates from Apte, J. S., Bombrun, E., Marshall, J. D., & Nazaroff, W. W. (2012). Global Intraurban Intake Fractions for Primary Air Pollutants from Vehicles and Other Distributed Sources. Environmental Science and Technology, 46(6), 3415–3423.

Exposure (iF) is the population-weighted intake fraction, or the grams of vehicle pollution inhaled per grams of vehicle pollution emitted.

Estimate exposure

Dieselisation pushing Indian market towards heavier vehicles

• Average weight and engine size during 2009-10 and 2012-13 has increased by 6%.

• On an average the weight and size of new vehicles is increasing at a rate of 2%.

• While 87% of petrol cars have engine size below 1.2 litres, 40% of diesel is 1.5 litre and the rest are more.

• Even at a moderate and flat growth rate of 20 per cent a year, the total diesel cars in 2020 will be double the size of the total car sales today.

Rate of growth of diesel cars in different engine size category

Hard selling diesel

Rapid proliferation of diesel models

Legal license to emit more particulate and nitrogen oxides

00.050.1

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Petrol cars (>1400cc) Diesel cars ( 1400cc) Diesel cars (< 1600cc)

0

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Petrol cars (> 1400cc) Diesel cars (< 1600cc)

PM

(gm

/km

)

135140145150155160165170175

Petrol cars (> 1400cc) Diesel cars (< 1600cc)C

O2

(gm

/km

)

Trade-off

NOx PM

Toxics CO2

Source ARAI

Chart3

Petrol cars (>1400cc)

Diesel cars ( 80 CC1991-19965,8,116.003.680.0224.750.0730.0062000.0042000.0003000.016500.030902.24820

9SCOOTERTWO STROKE> 80 CC1996-20006,95.102.460.0125.050.0013000.0073000.0029000.000100.004400.00120

10SCOOTERTWO STROKE> 80 CCPOST 20007,103.435 (19.69)1.905 (4.71)0.03 (0.02)25.92 (18.75)0.065 (NA)0.00613 (1.037)0.00321 (0.055)0.00834 (0.008)0.0048 (0.0015)0.0147 (0.02)0.498 (0.00075)

11SCOOTERTWO STROKE> 80 CCPOST 2005870.160.860.0238.540.0570.0106000.0123000.0403000.057300.120901.00750

12SCOOTERFOUR STROKE> 100 CCPOST 2000140.930.650.3533.830.0051000.0168000.0062000.000900.008700.00620

13SCOOTERFOUR STROKE> 100 CCPOST 2005880.400.150.2542.060.0150.0015000.0128000.1048000.057600.171601.52000

14MOTORCYCLETWO STROKE< 80 CC1991-1996155.6402.8900.04023.4800.008800.008200.002300.000300.008100.00350

15MOTORCYCLETWO STROKE> 80 CC1996-2000162.9602.4400.05024.1700.000300.007800.000200.000700.001000.00080

16MOTORCYCLETWO STROKE> 80 CCPOST 200017

17MOTORCYCLEFOUR STROKE< 100 CC1991-199618,21, 243.1200.7800.23022.4200.0100.004300.002100.001000.001500.005300.92330

18MOTORCYCLEFOUR STROKE< 100 CC1996-200019,22,251.5800.7400.30023.2500.0150.001200.003000.010300.001600.017300.51240

19MOTORCYCLEFOUR STROKE< 100 CCPOST 200020,231.6500.6100.27024.9700.0350.001600.010100.003000.000000.010001.57520

20MOTORCYCLEFOUR STROKE100-200 CCPOST 2000261.4800.5000.54024.8200.017400.001900.001400.000000.002200.00040

21MOTORCYCLEFOUR STROKE> 200 CCPOST 2005890.7200.5200.15045.6000.0130.001900.001600.005700.005300.010900.46000

22THREE WHEELERTWO STROKE< 200 CC1996-2000353.1506.0400.30054.5000.1100.006200.004800.042600.011000.062302.97600

23THREE WHEELERTWO STROKE< 200 CCPOST 2000361.3702.5300.20062.4100.0450.002600.003800.016200.017500.036201.96100


25THREE WHEELERSFOUR STROKE< 200 CCPOST 2000371.9700.8400.40062.6900.030000.00360.00320.00620.00120.02240.5140


27THREE WHEELERSDIESEL< 500 CC1996-20003323.1601.6001.470130.1801.199000.02930.00130.02610.00250.04811.1796

28THREE WHEELERSDIESEL< 500 CCPOST 2000342.0900.1600.690173.8500.347000.01750.00140.01550.00480.02330.7989


30THREE WHEELERSCNG OEM FOUR STROKE< 200 CCPOST 2000271.0000.2600.50077.7000.015000.03590.00420.00720.00120.00850.4035

31THREE WHEELERSCNG RETRO TWO STROKE< 200 CCPOST 2000290.6902.0600.19057.7100.118000.00490.00610.00510.00710.01490.3237

32THREE WHEELERSLPG RETRO TWO STROKE< 200 CC1996-2000314.3903.6000.08054.5700.721000.02690.01130.00220.00720.00970.6315

33THREE WHEELERLPG RETRO TWO STROKE< 200 CCPOST 2000321.7001.0300.04068.1500.130000.00570.01690.00750.00400.01420.3358

34CARSPETROL< 1000 CC1991-199648,51,544.7500.8400.95095.6500.008000.21260.13220.01810.01090.04530.1577

35CARSPETROL< 1000 CC1996-200049,52,554.825 (8.09)0.58 (1.31)0.645 (1.13)98.615 (108.22)0.0195 (0.002)0.00095 (0.0168)0.0067 (0.0048)0.0013 (0.0023)0.00005 (0.0008)0.00835 (0.0069)0.1862 (0.1212)

36CARSPETROL< 1000 CCPOST 2000 (MIDC)531.3000.2400.200126.3700.004000.00020.00310.00340.00120.00880.0955

37CARSPETROL1000-1400 CCPOST 2000 (MIDC)503.0100.1900.120126.5000.006000.00070.00340.00340.00120.00790.1324

38CARSPETROL> 1400 CCPOST 2000 (MIDC)562.7400.1900.210142.8600.006000.00090.00010.00860.00120.01010.4636


40CARSDIESEL< 1600 CC1996-2000440.8700.2200.450129.0900.145001.59620.31320.02610.00030.08130.1013

41CARSDIESEL< 1600 CCPOST 2000 (MIDC)46,470.510.200.67155.660.1200.01980.02760.01570.00180.02760.1301

42CARSDIESEL< 1600 CCPOST 2005 (MIDC)810.060.080.28148.760.0150.00180.00070.08890.00330.09220.2109

43CARSDIESEL1600 - 2400 CC1996-2000450.660.250.61166.140.1800.00320.01180.04000.00050.12440.1301

44CARSCNG1000 - 1400 CCPOST 2000 (MIDC)400.600.360.01131.190.0020.00090.00020.00070.00110.00180.0154

45CARSCNG< 1000 CC1996-2000390.850.790.53149.360.001

46CARSCNG< 1000 CCPOST 2000 (MIDC)380.060.460.74143.540.0060.00010.00030.01080.00220.01300.0164

47CARSLPG1000 - 1400 CC1996-2000426.780.850.50130.850.0010.0040.00620.01450.01010.02450.06

48CARSLPG> 1400 CCPOST 2000 (MIDC)432.720.230.20140.050.0020.00060.00160.00050.00110.00210.0247

49MUVDIESEL< 3000 CC1991-1996632.491.391.70163.560.5700.01310.00570.01350.00030.01531.7892

50MUVDIESEL< 3000 CC1996-2000641.381.390.65189.480.5600.00590.05930.00030.00280.03005.0397

51MUVDIESEL< 3000 CCPOST 2000 (MIDC)62,651.160.51.54229.380.2880.00940.00350.00220.00220.00851.4596


53LCVDIESEL< 3000 CC1991-199657, 603.072.283.03327.290.9980.54270.00940.19750.01170.29578.1284

54LCVDIESEL< 3000 CC1996-200058, 6131.282.48333.310.6550.20150.21470.11760.00590.21693.7742

55LCVDIESEL> 3000 CCPOST 2000593.661.352.12401.250.4750.19590.41540.00280.00830.02228.2679

56HCVDIESEL BUS> 6000 CC1991-199666,6913.062.411.24817.522.0130.15290.03130.10070.01480.12591.0123

57HCVDIESEL BUS> 6000 CC1996-200067,704.481.4615.25920.771.2130.10080.00930.10150.00290.11913.6515

58HCVDIESEL BUS> 6000 CCPOST 200068,7112.140.3911.56680.7950.01260.00170.01040.01360.04580.2833

59HCVDIESEL BUS> 6000 CCPOST 200585,843.920.166.53602.010.30.01010.00960.05230.00820.14581.3715

60HCVCNG BUS> 6000 CCPOST 200078,793.723.756.21806.5

61HCVDIESEL TRUCK> 6000 CC1991-200072,75,73,7619.32.6313.84837.51.9650.01990.01750.09250.01970.13744.5975

62HCVDIESEL TRUCK> 6000 CCPOST 20007460.379.3762.391.240.00490.00740.06100.08373.9707

Data Ana

Table 1: Summary of finalised emission factors for Indian vehiclesTable 1: Summary of finalised emission factors for Indian vehicles

Emission factor in gm/kmEmission factor in mg/km.

COHCNOxCO2PMType of VehicleType of EngineTotal toxicsBenzene1-3 ButadieneFormaldehydeAcetaldehydeTotal AldehydeTotal PAH.

CARSPETROL< 1000 CC1991-19964.7500.8400.95095.6500.00800CARSPETROL< 1000 CC1991-19960.57680.21260.13220.01810.01090.04530.1577


CARSPETROL< 1000 CCPOST 2000 (MIDC)1.3000.2400.200126.3700.00400CARSPETROL< 1000 CCPOST 2000 (MIDC)0.11220.00020.00310.00340.00120.00880.0955

CARSPETROL1000-1400 CCPOST 2000 (MIDC)3.0100.1900.120126.5000.00600CARSPETROL1000-1400 CCPOST 2000 (MIDC)0.1490.00070.00340.00340.00120.00790.1324

CARSPETROL> 1400 CCPOST 2000 (MIDC)2.7400.1900.210142.8600.00600CARSPETROL> 1400 CCPOST 2000 (MIDC)0.48450.00090.00010.00860.00120.01010.4636


CARSDIESEL< 1600 CC1996-20000.8700.2200.450129.0900.14500CARSDIESEL< 1600 CC1996-20002.11841.59620.31320.02610.00030.08130.1013

CARSDIESEL1600 - 2400 CC1996-20000.660.250.61166.140.180CARSDIESEL1600 - 2400 CC1996-20000.310.00320.01180.04000.00050.12440.1301

CARSDIESEL< 1600 CCPOST 2000 (MIDC)0.510.200.67155.660.120CARSDIESEL< 1600 CCPOST 2000 (MIDC)0.22260.01980.02760.01570.00180.02760.1301


CARSCNG1000 - 1400 CCPOST 2000 (MIDC)0.600.360.01131.190.002CARSCNG1000 - 1400 CCPOST 2000 (MIDC)0.00090.00020.00070.00110.00180.0154

CARSCNG< 1000 CC1996-20000.850.790.53149.360.001CARSCNG< 1000 CC1996-2000

CARSCNG< 1000 CCPOST 2000 (MIDC)0.060.460.74143.540.006CARSCNG< 1000 CCPOST 2000 (MIDC)0.00010.00030.01080.00220.01300.0164

CARSLPG1000 - 1400 CC1996-20006.780.850.50130.850.001CARSLPG1000 - 1400 CC1996-20000.0040.00620.01450.01010.02450.06

CARSLPG> 1400 CCPOST 2000 (MIDC)2.720.230.20140.050.002CARSLPG> 1400 CCPOST 2000 (MIDC)0.00060.00160.00050.00110.00210.0247

Data Ana (Regulated)

Table 1: Summary of finalised emission factors for Indian vehiclesPost 2005 Model Year

Emission factor in gm/kmEmission factor in gm/km

COHCNOxCO2PMCOHCNOxCO2PM

CARSPETROL< 1000 CC1991-19964.7500.8400.95095.6500.00800Petrol cars (> 1400cc)0.8400.1200.090172.9500.00200

CARSPETROL< 1000 CC1996-20004.8250.5800.64598.6150.01950Diesel cars (< 1600cc)0.060.080.28148.760.015

CARSPETROL< 1000 CCPOST 2000 (MIDC)1.3000.2400.200126.3700.00400

CARSPETROL1000-1400 CCPOST 2000 (MIDC)3.0100.1900.120126.5000.00600

CARSPETROL> 1400 CCPOST 2000 (MIDC)2.7400.1900.210142.8600.00600NOxPM

CARSPETROL> 1400 CCPOST 2005 (MIDC)0.8400.1200.090172.9500.00200Petrol cars (> 1400cc)0.090.002

Diesel cars (< 1600cc)0.280.015

COHC

Petrol cars (> 1400cc)0.840.12

Diesel cars (< 1600cc)0.060.08

CARSDIESEL< 1600 CC1996-20000.8700.2200.450129.0900.14500

CARSDIESEL1600 - 2400 CC1996-20000.660.250.61166.140.180

CARSDIESEL< 1600 CCPOST 2000 (MIDC)0.510.200.67155.660.120


CARSCNG1000 - 1400 CCPOST 2000 (MIDC)0.600.360.01131.190.002

CARSCNG< 1000 CC1996-20000.850.790.53149.360.001

CARSCNG< 1000 CCPOST 2000 (MIDC)0.060.460.74143.540.006

CARSLPG1000 - 1400 CC1996-20006.780.850.50130.850.001

CARSLPG> 1400 CCPOST 2000 (MIDC)2.720.230.20140.050.002


Petrol cars (> 1400cc)

Diesel cars (< 1600cc)

gm/km

Post 2005 Models

Data Ana (Unregu)



gm/km

Post 2005 Models


Emission factor in mg/km.

Type of VehicleType of EngineTotal toxicsBenzene1-3 ButadieneFormaldehydeAcetaldehydeTotal AldehydeTotal PAH.Type of VehicleType of EngineTotal toxics

CARSPETROL< 1000 CC1991-19960.57680.21260.13220.01810.01090.04530.1577CARSPETROL< 1000 CC1991-19960.5768

CARSPETROL< 1000 CC1996-20000.203550.000950.00670.00130.00010.00840.1862CARSPETROL< 1000 CC1996-20000.20355Post 2005 models

CARSPETROL< 1000 CCPOST 2000 (MIDC)0.11220.00020.00310.00340.00120.00880.0955CARSPETROL< 1000 CCPOST 2000 (MIDC)0.1122

CARSPETROL1000-1400 CCPOST 2000 (MIDC)0.1490.00070.00340.00340.00120.00790.1324CARSPETROL1000-1400 CCPOST 2000 (MIDC)0.149

CARSPETROL> 1400 CCPOST 2000 (MIDC)0.48450.00090.00010.00860.00120.01010.4636CARSPETROL> 1400 CCPOST 2000 (MIDC)0.4845Total toxics

CARSPETROL> 1400 CCPOST 2005 (MIDC)0.06050.00030.00030.00030.00000.00960.0500CARSPETROL> 1400 CCPOST 2005 (MIDC)0.0605Petrol cars (>1400cc)0.0605

Diesel cars ( 1400 CCPOST 2000 (MIDC)0.00060.00160.00050.00110.00210.0247CARSLPG> 1400 CCPOST 2000 (MIDC)

Total toxics

gm/km

Chart4



NOx

NOx (gm/km)

0.09

0.28

Data

Table 1: Summary of finalised emission factors for Indian vehicles


Sr No.Type of VehicleType of EngineSub-categoryVintageTest Veh IdCOHCNOxCO2PMBenzene1-3 ButadieneFormaldehydeAcetaldehydeTotal AldehydeTotal PAH.

1MOPEDTWO STROKE< 80 CC1991-1996111.417.700.0215.370.0035000.0016000.0004000.000000.003600.00140

2MOPEDTWO STROKE< 80 CC1996-200022.972.770.0321.130.0600.0020000.0039000.0059000.023100.039500.22490

3MOPEDTWO STROKE< 80 CCPOST 200030.453.10.0429.690.0008000.0032000.0024000.001000.005300.00170

4MOPEDTWO STROKE< 80 CCPOST 2005860.460.60.0236.810.0180.0008000.0004000.0371000.007100.044101.75000

5MOPEDFOUR STROKE< 100 CCPOST 200040.810.50.2920.090.0100.0032000.0061000.0000000.003700.008900.33730

6SCOOTERTWO STROKE< 80 CC1996-2000125.202.510.0424.240.0013000.0016000.0037000.004600.014000.01210

7SCOOTERTWO STROKE< 80 CCPOST 2000137.523.60.0221.670.0550.0023500.0029500.0109500.000000.017650.28035

8SCOOTERTWO STROKE> 80 CC1991-19965,8,116.003.680.0224.750.0730.0062000.0042000.0003000.016500.030902.24820


























34CARSPETROL< 1000 CC1991-199648,51,544.7500.8400.95095.6500.008000.21260.13220.01810.01090.04530.1577

35CARSPETROL< 1000 CC1996-200049,52,554.825 (8.09)0.58 (1.31)0.645 (1.13)98.615 (108.22)0.0195 (0.002)0.00095 (0.0168)0.0067 (0.0048)0.0013 (0.0023)0.00005 (0.0008)0.00835 (0.0069)0.1862 (0.1212)





40CARSDIESEL< 1600 CC1996-2000440.8700.2200.450129.0900.145001.59620.31320.02610.00030.08130.1013



43CARSDIESEL1600 - 2400 CC1996-2000450.660.250.61166.140.1800.00320.01180.04000.00050.12440.1301


45CARSCNG< 1000 CC1996-2000390.850.790.53149.360.001


47CARSLPG1000 - 1400 CC1996-2000426.780.850.50130.850.0010.0040.00620.01450.01010.02450.06


49MUVDIESEL< 3000 CC1991-1996632.491.391.70163.560.5700.01310.00570.01350.00030.01531.7892

50MUVDIESEL< 3000 CC1996-2000641.381.390.65189.480.5600.00590.05930.00030.00280.03005.0397



53LCVDIESEL< 3000 CC1991-199657, 603.072.283.03327.290.9980.54270.00940.19750.01170.29578.1284

54LCVDIESEL< 3000 CC1996-200058, 6131.282.48333.310.6550.20150.21470.11760.00590.21693.7742


56HCVDIESEL BUS> 6000 CC1991-199666,6913.062.411.24817.522.0130.15290.03130.10070.01480.12591.0123

57HCVDIESEL BUS> 6000 CC1996-200067,704.481.4615.25920.771.2130.10080.00930.10150.00290.11913.6515






Data Ana



























CARSPETROL> 1400 CCPOST 2000 (MIDC)2.7400.1900.210142.8600.00600NOx

CARSPETROL> 1400 CCPOST 2005 (MIDC)0.8400.1200.090172.9500.00200Petrol cars (> 1400cc)0.09

Diesel cars (< 1600cc)0.28

PM

Petrol cars (> 1400cc)0.002


CARSDIESEL< 1600 CC1996-20000.8700.2200.450129.0900.14500

CARSDIESEL1600 - 2400 CC1996-20000.660.250.61166.140.180



COHC




CARSCNG< 1000 CC1996-20000.850.790.53149.360.001


CARSLPG1000 - 1400 CC1996-20006.780.850.50130.850.001





gm/km

Post 2005 Models

Data Ana (Unregu)

NOx

Post 2005 Models NOx emissions

PM

Post 2005 Models PM emissions











Total toxics

gm/km

Chart5



PM

PM (gm/km)

0.002

0.015

Data





































34CARSPETROL< 1000 CC1991-199648,51,544.7500.8400.95095.6500.008000.21260.13220.01810.01090.04530.1577

35CARSPETROL< 1000 CC1996-200049,52,554.825 (8.09)0.58 (1.31)0.645 (1.13)98.615 (108.22)0.0195 (0.002)0.00095 (0.0168)0.0067 (0.0048)0.0013 (0.0023)0.00005 (0.0008)0.00835 (0.0069)0.1862 (0.1212)





40CARSDIESEL< 1600 CC1996-2000440.8700.2200.450129.0900.145001.59620.31320.02610.00030.08130.1013



43CARSDIESEL1600 - 2400 CC1996-2000450.660.250.61166.140.1800.00320.01180.04000.00050.12440.1301


45CARSCNG< 1000 CC1996-2000390.850.790.53149.360.001


47CARSLPG1000 - 1400 CC1996-2000426.780.850.50130.850.0010.0040.00620.01450.01010.02450.06


49MUVDIESEL< 3000 CC1991-1996632.491.391.70163.560.5700.01310.00570.01350.00030.01531.7892

50MUVDIESEL< 3000 CC1996-2000641.381.390.65189.480.5600.00590.05930.00030.00280.03005.0397



53LCVDIESEL< 3000 CC1991-199657, 603.072.283.03327.290.9980.54270.00940.19750.01170.29578.1284

54LCVDIESEL< 3000 CC1996-200058, 6131.282.48333.310.6550.20150.21470.11760.00590.21693.7742


56HCVDIESEL BUS> 6000 CC1991-199666,6913.062.411.24817.522.0130.15290.03130.10070.01480.12591.0123

57HCVDIESEL BUS> 6000 CC1996-200067,704.481.4615.25920.771.2130.10080.00930.10150.00290.11913.6515






Data Ana



























CARSPETROL> 1400 CCPOST 2000 (MIDC)2.7400.1900.210142.8600.00600NOx

CARSPETROL> 1400 CCPOST 2005 (MIDC)0.8400.1200.090172.9500.00200Petrol cars (> 1400cc)0.09


PM



CARSDIESEL< 1600 CC1996-20000.8700.2200.450129.0900.14500

CARSDIESEL1600 - 2400 CC1996-20000.660.250.61166.140.180



COHC




CARSCNG< 1000 CC1996-20000.850.790.53149.360.001


CARSLPG1000 - 1400 CC1996-20006.780.850.50130.850.001





gm/km

Post 2005 Models

Data Ana (Unregu)

NOx


PM












Total toxics

gm/km

Chart6



CO2

CO2 (gm/km)

172.95

148.76

Data





































34CARSPETROL< 1000 CC1991-199648,51,544.7500.8400.95095.6500.008000.21260.13220.01810.01090.04530.1577

35CARSPETROL< 1000 CC1996-200049,52,554.825 (8.09)0.58 (1.31)0.645 (1.13)98.615 (108.22)0.0195 (0.002)0.00095 (0.0168)0.0067 (0.0048)0.0013 (0.0023)0.00005 (0.0008)0.00835 (0.0069)0.1862 (0.1212)





40CARSDIESEL< 1600 CC1996-2000440.8700.2200.450129.0900.145001.59620.31320.02610.00030.08130.1013



43CARSDIESEL1600 - 2400 CC1996-2000450.660.250.61166.140.1800.00320.01180.04000.00050.12440.1301


45CARSCNG< 1000 CC1996-2000390.850.790.53149.360.001


47CARSLPG1000 - 1400 CC1996-2000426.780.850.50130.850.0010.0040.00620.01450.01010.02450.06


49MUVDIESEL< 3000 CC1991-1996632.491.391.70163.560.5700.01310.00570.01350.00030.01531.7892

50MUVDIESEL< 3000 CC1996-2000641.381.390.65189.480.5600.00590.05930.00030.00280.03005.0397



53LCVDIESEL< 3000 CC1991-199657, 603.072.283.03327.290.9980.54270.00940.19750.01170.29578.1284

54LCVDIESEL< 3000 CC1996-200058, 6131.282.48333.310.6550.20150.21470.11760.00590.21693.7742


56HCVDIESEL BUS> 6000 CC1991-199666,6913.062.411.24817.522.0130.15290.03130.10070.01480.12591.0123

57HCVDIESEL BUS> 6000 CC1996-200067,704.481.4615.25920.771.2130.10080.00930.10150.00290.11913.6515






Data Ana



























CARSPETROL> 1400 CCPOST 2000 (MIDC)2.7400.1900.210142.8600.00600NOxCO2

CARSPETROL> 1400 CCPOST 2005 (MIDC)0.8400.1200.090172.9500.00200Petrol cars (> 1400cc)0.09Petrol cars (> 1400cc)172.950

Diesel cars (< 1600cc)0.28Diesel cars (< 1600cc)148.76

PM



CARSDIESEL< 1600 CC1996-20000.8700.2200.450129.0900.14500

CARSDIESEL1600 - 2400 CC1996-20000.660.250.61166.140.180



COHC




CARSCNG< 1000 CC1996-20000.850.790.53149.360.001


CARSLPG1000 - 1400 CC1996-20006.780.850.50130.850.001





gm/km

Post 2005 Models

Data Ana (Unregu)

NOx


PM


CO2

gm/km

Post 2005 models CO2 emissions











Total toxics

gm/km

High contribution of diesel cars to PM2.5 levels in Delhi

Source: IIT Kanpur Study, 2015

IIT Kanpur study: Diesel cars are 25% of the total car fleet and contribute an average of 78% of PM2.5 from vehicles

ICCT estimates of cancer effects: --- 4 times greater cancer risk in Delhi from diesel cars compared to petrol cars

-- The annual number of avoidable cancers caused by diesel exhaust in Delhi region is 280,000 (based on emissions estimates of IIT Kanpur study)

26

Dieselgate in India?

27

India’s tryst with corporate fraud

2005 --2012: General Motors sold 114,000 units of Tavera diesel SUV —BS-III and BS-IV variants—by tampering type approval tests.

For the certification, the company had sent pre-selected samples that were fitted with improved engines and were in a different weight category than what it sold afterwards.

The Ministry of Road Transport and Highways initiated a probe

GM admitted to the fraud and recalled 114,000 units of the Tavera in 2012-13.

But India does not have a system to penalisecompanies for such corporate fraud.

28

After the Tavera case Nitin Gokarn committee recommended: -- Certification laboratories like ARAI to identify samples from factories and dealers. Companies to transport the sample cars to ARAI with proper coding and identification number.

-- No system in place that legally allows testing agencies to select any vehicle, anywhere, anytime . -- Indian certification agencies give prior notice to manufacturers about the approximate time during which samples will be collected from a given lot.

-- The type approval certificate is issued when a vehicle passes COP testing. If, after repeated attempts, a vehicle fails to pass COP procedures, the government has the legal authority to take action against a manufacturer, such as issuing a recall.

-- But this has not happened to date, though, and legal procedures for the MoRTH to issue mandatory recalls or levy fines have not been established.

Tavera fraud did not lead to system change.....

VW under scrutiny in India

• Government directed testing of VW models: Automotive Research Association of India (ARAI) submitted report on emission levels of VW models

• Gross violation reported: ARAI tested 11 vehicles manufactured by Volkswagen Group in India. Found five to nine times higher emissions compared with the tests done during the prototype approval stage.

• Voluntary recall: Ministry of Heavy Industries & Public Enterprises directed Volkswagen to initiate vehicle recall in India. Volkswagen recalled some models

• Proposal to do more tests and consider penalty: Ministry of heavy industries considered on-road testing along with laboratory test as a norm. That the official agencies would do pilot testing of models of other OEMS as well.

• Proposed a committee of experts to look into Volkswagen’s emission-test cheating case before deciding on any penalty.

December 2015: VW had said they would recall 3.24 lakh cars from VW Audi and Skoda brand

June 2016: VW announced that the recall will begin in July 2016. (EA189 diesel engine family)

VW brand – 1.9 lakh carsSkoda – 88700 carsAudi -- 36500 cars

Several recalls in India since 2012 (related to emissions and technical/safety parameters) 2012: Ford – 1.2 lakh cars Figo and Classic models (Rear suspensions and steering)2013: General Motors – Tavera (Emissions related)2014 Maruti Suzuki – 1 lakh (Dzire, Swift, Artiga) 2015: Honda 2.23 lakh; General Motors 1.5 lakh; VW – 1.55 lakh cars (emissions related)2016: Maruti Suzuki (75,4190 cars; Ford 48,700 cars); Honda (57676 cars) (safety related)

Voluntary recall

31

Current in-use emissions surveillance too weak to prevent dieselgate

32

Diesel vehiclesBased entirely on visible smoke that -- tested by

“snap-idle” opacity test(SAE J1667). Very ineffective.

Smoke readings differ depending on how well the vehicle is warmed up. It is very difficult to get consistent readings.

Results vary depending on the way the accelerator pedal is pressed.Doesn’t really measure particulate.The smoke readings at different PUC

Smoke tests for diesel vehicles: A farce

34

Poor failure rate in pre-Euro IV and Euro IV vehicles

Diesel vehicles: Smoke density norm of 65HSU-- Failure rate 6%

Negligible failure in Euro IV vehicles meeting Euro IV standards

Smoke density limit was revised to 50 ppm only for Euro IV vehicles Virtually no failure

Source: CSE

Current system cannot make a difference……

Carbon monoxide for post2000 cars 0.5% (idle)

-- 4% fail. 96% pass

Hydrocarbons norms for post 2000 cars 750 ppm (idle)-- 100% pass

Diesel vehicles: Smoke density norm of 65HSU-- Failure rate 6%Source: CSE

10 Model I&C Test Centers being established..Centers to be facilitated by ARAI

Centers to be facilitated by iCAT

Center to be facilitated by SIAM

What happens when we raise the bar?

Himachal Pradesh

National Capital Region

Uttar Pradesh

Haryana

Rajasthan

Gujarat – Surat

Maharashtra – Nasik

Karnataka – Bengaluru

Telangana – Hyderabad

Madhya Pradesh –Chindhwara

ARAI will facilitate setting up centres at Cuttack, Odishaand at Trissur, Kerala under II phase

Source: ARAI

Inspection and Certification Test Center- Nasik

Source: ARAI

Annual fitness tests of commercial vehicles: Every year a fitness certificate is issued to all the public service and commercial vehicles running on the road by transport department as per rule 62.

Improved fitness testing and trial analysis in new I&C centre: Trial analysis of 1257 vehicles in August 2015. That included 50% light-duty vehicles; 37% heavy-duty vehicles: 9% three wheelers; 5% medium commercial vehicles.

Disturbing results: Of these 93% vehicles failed

Rigorous fitness inspection exposes wide deviation

39

The Lambda fiasco

Hyundai19.8%

Maruti67.5%

HM 0.3%

Skoda 0.3%

Tata 0.7%

Toyota 1.2%

Daew oo 0.6%Mitsubishi 0.5%

Fiat 1.4%

GM 1.7%Ford 2.4%Honda Siel

3.6%

81%

82%

81%

93%

67%

90%

81%

79%

50%

71%

83%

25%

100%

19%

18%

19%

7%

33%

10%

19%

21%

50%

29%

17%

75%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Skoda [3]

HM [4]

Mitsubishi [6]

Daewoo [7]

Tata Motors [8]

Toyota [14]

Fiat [16]

GM [20]

Ford [27]

Honda Siel [41]

Hyundai [226]

Maruti [771]

All [1,144]

Within 0.97-1.03 OutsideMake [No. of cars in the sample]

90%

Make-wise lambda result

Share of different makes in the sample

lambda value of 1+ 0.03

National level -- Euro VI emissions standards to be introduced in 2020-- Differentiated infra tax on petrol and diesel cars

Delhi region-- Temporary ban on diesel cars with 2000 cc engines and above until environment compensation charge is fixed for all diesel cars

-- Imposition and doubling of environment compensation charge on all trucks entering Delhi – close to 50% drop in truck numbers reported

-- Banned entry of10 year old trucks; non-destined trucks not allowed

-- Diesel taxis not allowed-- Environment tax on per litre of diesel sold.. Air Ambience Fund

New policy developments

Slowing down pollution peak since last year

More certain and consistent trend in response to action

More erratic trend influenced by variable weather

Source: Based on DPCC Real Time Monitoring Data

2015-16

2014-15

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30

mic

rogr

amm

e/ c

ubic

met

re

Dates (1 April – 30 April)

2015 2016

Night time pollution lowerPM2.5 levels in April 2016 lower than

April 2015Punjab &

Haryana Farm Fire in April

2016

No data available for PM2.5 for 1-10

April, 2015

Source: CSE analysis based on realtime data of DPCC

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30

Mic

rogr

amm

e/cu

bic

met

re

Date (1-30)April

2015 2016

Night time pollution lowerNOx levels in April 2016 lower than April

2015

Source: CSE analysis based on realtime data of DPCC

Punjab & Haryana Farm

Fire in April 2016

No data available for PM2.5 for 1-10 April, 2015

To push for in-service compliance regulations

Emissions warranty and recall programme: Proposed by Auto Fuel Policy Committee; Penalty and mandatory recalls. Indian laws-- environment (protection) act and Motor Vehicles act, give government the authority to establish these rules.

The government can legally revoke certification if vehicles found non-compliant with COP requirements. Guidelines on government and manufacturer action to remove noncompliant vehicles from road not clear.

On board diagnostic and I/MTransport departments to evaluate integration of OBD with I/M programme. Central government to frame rules for its integrationOBD I requirement from 1 April 2010 and OBD II from 1 April 2013

Demand for transparent emissions data

Control dieselisation: Need fiscal measures

Next steps under discussion

45Thank You

Compliance programme� Current practice and future plans in IndiaDiesel related emissions high in India...... Slide Number 3Slide Number 4Slide Number 5Slide Number 6Slide Number 7Slide Number 8Delhi: After a short respite pollution curve turns upwardPM2.5 level in Delhi: stabilising again? Slide Number 11Slide Number 12Slide Number 13Slide Number 14Slide Number 15Slide Number 16New policy paradigmAmbient vs ExposureSlide Number 19Dieselisation pushing Indian market towards heavier vehiclesRate of growth of diesel cars in different engine size categoryHard selling dieselSlide Number 23Slide Number 24Slide Number 25Dieselgate in India? India’s tryst with corporate fraudAfter the Tavera case Nitin Gokarn committee recommended: -- Certification laboratories like ARAI to identify samples from factories and dealers. Companies to transport the sample cars to ARAI with proper coding and identification number. ��-- No system in place that legally allows testing agencies to select any vehicle, anywhere, anytime . -- Indian certification agencies give prior notice to manufacturers about the approximate time during which samples will be collected from a given lot. ��-- The type approval certificate is issued when a vehicle passes COP testing. If, after repeated attempts, a vehicle fails to pass COP procedures, the government has the legal authority to take action against a manufacturer, such as issuing a recall. � �-- But this has not happened to date, though, and legal procedures for the MoRTH to issue mandatory recalls or levy fines have not been established. VW under scrutiny in India Slide Number 30Current in-use emissions surveillance too weak to prevent dieselgateDiesel vehicles�Based entirely on visible smoke that -- tested by “snap-idle” opacity test(SAE J1667). Very ineffective. Slide Number 33Poor failure rate in pre-Euro IV and Euro IV vehiclesCurrent system cannot make a difference…… 10 Model I&C Test Centers being established..Slide Number 37Rigorous fitness inspection exposes wide deviationThe Lambda fiascoSlide Number 40Slide Number 41Slide Number 42Slide Number 43Next steps under discussionSlide Number 45

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