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Composite Panel Association 2015 06 Conerly

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The Economic Outlook for Building Materials: New Opportunities and Risks in the Evolving Business Cycle Dr. Bill Conerly for Composite Panel Association June 1, 2015
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Page 1: Composite Panel Association 2015 06 Conerly

The Economic Outlook for

Building Materials:

New Opportunities and Risks in the

Evolving Business Cycle

Dr. Bill Conerly

for

Composite Panel Association

June 1, 2015

Page 2: Composite Panel Association 2015 06 Conerly

0

1

2

3

4

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

perc

en

t ch

an

ge

U.S. Real GDP Growth

Page 3: Composite Panel Association 2015 06 Conerly

0

1

2

3

4

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

perc

en

t c

han

ge

Canada Real GDP GrowthIMF Forecast

Page 4: Composite Panel Association 2015 06 Conerly

0

1

2

3

4

5

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

perc

en

t c

han

ge

Mexico Real GDP GrowthIMF Forecast

Page 5: Composite Panel Association 2015 06 Conerly

340

360

380

400

420

440

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

$ b

illi

on

sRetail Salesexcluding gasoline

Page 6: Composite Panel Association 2015 06 Conerly

6.5

7.0

7.5

8.0

8.5

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

$ b

illi

on

sRetail Sales: Furniture Stores

Page 7: Composite Panel Association 2015 06 Conerly

Singles

Multis

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

mil

lio

ns

of

un

its

Housing Starts

Page 8: Composite Panel Association 2015 06 Conerly

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

perm

its, m

illi

on

sBuildFax Remodeling Index

Page 9: Composite Panel Association 2015 06 Conerly

20

30

40

50

60

70

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

$ b

illi

on

sCommercial Construction

Page 10: Composite Panel Association 2015 06 Conerly

All Items

Ex Food & Energy

-1

0

1

2

3

4

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

% c

han

ge 1

2 m

on

ths

InflationConsumer Price Index

Page 11: Composite Panel Association 2015 06 Conerly

0

1

2

3

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

4-q

uart

er

% c

han

ge

Employment Cost Inflationincluding wages and benefits

Page 12: Composite Panel Association 2015 06 Conerly

West Texas

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

$ /

barr

el

Oil Prices

Page 13: Composite Panel Association 2015 06 Conerly

3-monthT-bill

30-year mortgage

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

perc

en

tInterest Rate Forecast

Page 14: Composite Panel Association 2015 06 Conerly

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

ind

ex

Foreign Exchange Value of $trade-weighted index

Page 15: Composite Panel Association 2015 06 Conerly
Page 16: Composite Panel Association 2015 06 Conerly

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

$ t

rill

ion

sBank Reserves

Page 17: Composite Panel Association 2015 06 Conerly

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

perc

en

tRisk of Recession

Wall Street Journal survey

May: 12%

Page 18: Composite Panel Association 2015 06 Conerly
Page 19: Composite Panel Association 2015 06 Conerly

Sources of Uncertainty

Economy

Technology

Social Attitudes

Government

Competition

Page 20: Composite Panel Association 2015 06 Conerly
Page 21: Composite Panel Association 2015 06 Conerly
Page 22: Composite Panel Association 2015 06 Conerly

The Flexible Stance

Operating Plans

What would I do if the recession hits?

What would I do in a strong recovery?

Areas of Concern

Sales/marketing

Inventories

Capital spending

Staff

Working capital

Lines of business

Page 23: Composite Panel Association 2015 06 Conerly

The Nutshell

Most likely

Better markets for composite panels

Stronger growth in rest of 2015 & 2016

Higher interest rates

Oil prices around $60 - $70

Downside Upside

Weak retail spend Consumer optimism

Recession Stronger building

Dollar rises Dollar falls

Page 24: Composite Panel Association 2015 06 Conerly

Questions?

Bill @ ConerlyConsulting.com

one “n”


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