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From Technologies to Market Compound Semiconductors Industry: from Rocket Science to Mass Market © 2021 CoInnovateCS 2021 Ezgi DOGMUS, PhD June 9 th , 2021
From Technologies to Market
Compound Semiconductors Industry:from Rocket Science to
Mass Market
©2021
CoInnovateCS 2021
Ezgi DOGMUS, PhD
June 9th , 2021
2
GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY ROADMAP
1750 1870 1950 2000 2025
Industry
4.0
AutonomousElectrification
Sharing
Personal
assistant
Smart ambianceAugmented human
Robotics
Cloud
Big data Robots
IOT
Solar Wind
Biofuel
Renewable
2050
gas
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Connectivity
333
Sensing
Power Electronics
RF
Compound
Semi.
COMPOUND SEMICONDUCTORS ARE EVERYWHERE!
Photonics
PV
Display &
Ligthing
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444
Sensing
Power
Electronics
Connectivity
Compound
Semi.
COMPOUND SEMICONDUCTORS ARE EVERYWHERE! – TODAY’S FOCUS
3D Sensing for consumerLIDAR
EV/HEV Fast chargersCharging
InfrastructureDatacom
Telecom Infra.Cellphone FE
V2XIndustrial applications
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COMPOUND SEMICONDUCTOR WAFER MARKET VOLUME EVOLUTION
For Connectivity, Power, Sensing in 6” equivalent
Very strong growth is expected in overall Compound Semi wafer market !
20191.4 Mu
20253.2 Mu
CAGR19-25 15%
Connectivity (RF) GaAs
CAGR19-25 5%
Power SiC
CAGR19-25 24%
GaAs Sensing
CAGR19-25 17%
Power GaN
CAGR19-25 50%
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InP Connectivity
CAGR19-25 15%
Connectivity(RF) GaN
CAGR19-25 29%
Compound Semiconductors in Sensing Applications
7
GAASVCSELS: IMPORTANT MILESTONES
Extended range enables new applications
Increasing the sensing range enables new applications.
2016Proximity sensorRange: 10-30cm
2017iPhone X
Front 3D cameraRange: up to 1m
iPhone 7
2018
Rear 3D cameraRange: 2-3m
Oppo RX17 Pro
2020 iPad Pro
Rear LiDARRange: 5-8m
Front side – User-
related applications
World-facing –
photography and AR
applications
Used for
computational
photography
Used for
augmented
reality
+
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Gesture
recognition
AEB: Autonomous emergency braking
DMS: Driver Monitoring System
AQM: Air Quality Monitoring
SENSING IN AUTOMOTIVE SEGMENT
GaAs EEL and VCSEL based systems
GaAs photonic systems enable autonomous, safer, more comfortable and connected vehicles.
Occupancy
sensors
LiDAR
Driver
monitoring
EXTERIOR INTERIOR
Gas sensor
Autonomous Emergency
Braking (AEB)Rain sensor
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GaAs IN TRANSITION
2025
2030
2019
LiDAR
Personal vehicle (L4/L5)
RF dominates
Optoelectronics dominatesWafer Market $200M
Epiwafer Market $262M
Wafer Market $348M
Epiwafer Market $428MOptoelectronics
dominates
3D sensing
handset
Handset PA
DisplayHandset PA
3D sensing
handset
Industrial
manufacturing
Co-existence
RF dominates
Display
What about GaAs
Sensing % in 2025?
20% of total wafer market
40% of the total open
epiwafer market
Source: Yole Report 2020
GaAs Wafer and Epiwafer Market Version 2020
RF, Photonics, LED, Display and PV Applications CoInnovateCS | [email protected] | June 9th, 2021
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CONNECTIVITY IN A NUTSHELL
Compound semiconductors in Connectivity
Source ETSI, 2018
Consumer
?
Telecom
Infrastructure
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Datacenters
Automotive
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CELLULAR NETWORK STRUCTURE
: GaN devices’ target markets
Source: 5G's impact on RF Front-End for Telecom Infrastructure 2021
: GaAs devices’ target markets
GaAs
GaAs
GaAs
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Legacy 2G/3G/4G5G
introduction5G coverage 5G capacity
mmW
UHB
HB
MB
LB
5G HANDSET PA EVOLUTION
Technology platform choice for PA
CMOS?
SOI? GaAs?
LTE5G
NR
< 1.5 GHz
< 2 GHz
< 3 GHz
< 6 GHz
> 6 GHz
: GaN devices’ target markets
CMOS CMOS CMOS CMOSCMOS
CMOS
or GaAs
CMOS
CMOS
or GaAs
CMOS
or GaAsCMOS
or GaAs
CMOS
or GaAs
GaAs
GaAs
GaAs GaAs GaAsGaAs? GaAs?
GaAs? GaAs?
CMOS
or GaAs
GaAs
Source: GaN RF Market: Applications, Players, Technology and Substrates 2020
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GaN RF DEVICE MARKET EVOLUTION
2026
2030
2020
$891M
5G Telecom
DefenseDefense
5G
Telecom
Co-existence
SatCom
LTE/5G
Telecom
Co-existence
$2.4BSatcom
Defense
5G
Handset
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RF GAAS DEVICE MARKET FORECAST (2019-2026)
Breakdown by applications
RF GaAs market is mainly driven by mobile & consumer, large share in telecom infrastructure.
Source: Compound Semiconductor Quarterly Market Monitor Q1-2021
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POWER ELECTRONICS: MARKET TRENDS
Our world is transitioning to portable and storable electricity
This impacts every major industry sector, including mobility and energy industries and leads to growing needs for charging infrastructure.
Non-exhaustive overview. Illustrative images only.
Past Present Future
Energy
generation,
distribution
and storage
• Centralized
• Fossil energy + hydro
• No storage
• Centralized / distributed
• Fossil energy / hydro / renewable
• With storage (hydro / batteries)
• Toward distributed and
Internet of Energy (where
“all is interconnected”)
• Growing share of PV and
wind
• With storage (hydro /
batteries)
Device
power
supply type
ElectricMechanic
Thermal engine (ICE) E-motorHybrid (ICE + E-motor) / e-motor
Device
power
supplyCord Cordless
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POWER DEVICE POSITIONING AS A FUNCTION OF POWER AND FREQUENCY
103
102
101
100
Swit
chin
g pow
er
(kW
) Si GTO/IGCT
GaN HEMT
Planar
103
Si
Bipolar
Operating frequency (Hz)
104 106105
AC adaptersPower
supplies for
servers
EV/HEV
Switching
power
supplies
Audio
equipment
UPS
RailGrid Wind
PV
Si IGBT/IPM
Home
appliances
GaN
Si
Thyri
stor
SiC
GaN
Si MOSFET
Competition zone Si/SiC/GaN
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GaN POWER DEVICE MARKET FORECAST BY SEGMENT
Source: GaN Power 2021 Epitaxy, Devices, Applications and Technology Trends
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SiC ADOPTION BY xEV – MAIN INVERTER FOCUS
Tesla effect and 800V effect
Although each OEM has its own strategy for SiC, the adoption of SiC by Tesla has significantly improved the confidence with SiC technology and to some extent accelerated SiC’s adoption.
800V batteries adoption is also accelerating the penetration of SiC.
Level of interest & confidence with SiC
SiC in
inverter
in Tesla
Model
2018
Toyota
demos SiC prototype
2014
Interesting
but too
costly!
SiC isn’t
mature
enough!
2020
SiC in
inverter for
800V
battery
And more to come!
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POWER SIC: LONG-TERM EVOLUTION
Roadmap for Power SiC devices
Looking into the future, automotive and high-power electronic applications will drive the Power SiCmarket.
SiC device
market
revenues
Power
supply
High power applications
First
device PV
EV/HEV
20302010 20202000
$1B
$2B
> $3B
Charging
Infrastructure
*SiC device includes discrete
diodes, transistors and modules.
124 3
5
Yole’s analysis on leading players’ SiC device ranking in 2019
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COMPOUND SEMICONDUCTORS WAFER VOLUME EVOLUTION
Questions from the industry in 6” equivalent
CoInnovateCS | [email protected] | June 9th, 2021
• What about scalability? Transition to 6” or 8”?
• What about the substrate and epitaxy quality?
• Outsource or internalize?
• Is it the technology reliable? What about
standardization?
• What about integration? Hybrid or Monolithic?
• How to deal with the thermal management?
• Is the supply chain ready? Multi-sourcing?
• Is it cost-efficient?
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AND VARIOUS REPORTS FROM YOLE GROUP OF COMPANIES
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COMPOUND SEMICONDUCTOR MONITOR SERVICE
Yole Développement tracks the GaN, SiC, GaAs, InP
semiconductors on a quarterly basis through “The Compound
Semiconductor Monitor Service” launched in 2019. This service
offering direct access to the analyst, includes:
• Module 1: Power SiC and GaN
• Module II: RF GaN and GaAs
• Module III: GaAs and InP Optoelectronics
GaAs
Optoelectronics
InP
Optoelectronics
Power SiC
Power GaN
RF GaN
RF GaAs
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ANY QUESTIONS?
Thank you!
Any questions?
Ezgi DOGMUS, PhD
Team Lead Analyst
Compound Semiconductors & Emerging Substrates
Power & Wireless Division
CoInnovateCS | [email protected] | June 9th, 2021
