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DRAFT - do not quote without permission of authors
CONCEPTUALIZING PARTY REPRESENTATION OF ETHNIC MINORITIES IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPE
Joan DeBardeleben, Professor, Institute of European, Russian, and Eurasian Studies
Horia Nedelcu, PhD Candidate, Department of Political Science
Carleton University, Ottawa, Canada
Presented at the ECPR General Conference 2013
4 - 7 September 2013
Sciences Po Bordeaux, Domaine Universitaire, Bordeaux, France Introduction
Since the democratization of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) more than two decades
ago, scholars have attempted to classify the freshly created political parties in post-communist
states. Some scholars have identified new societal cleavages as responsible for the formation of
party systems after 1989 (Kostelecky, 2001:107; Kitschelt, 1995: 464); these cleavages may
result from the previous communist regime, be based in anti-communist grass-roots movements,
have a socio-economic base, or have a demographic character (e.g., generational cohort
differences). The political representation of ethnic minorities has been mainly studied through
the prism of nation-building and social integration, or civic versus ethnic conceptions of
citizenship. Ethnic issues thus focus on the dynamics between majorities and minorities, the
ethnic homeland and – in the case of new EU member states – the impact of international
institutions such as the EU (Kelly 2010, 2). While such factors are evidently important in
shaping state policies towards minorities, questions regarding the actual political representation
of minority interests have been less thoroughly addressed. As democracy has become
consolidated in the EU member states of Central and Eastern Europe, an important question
2 relates to the modality of representation that ethnic minorities have achieved in gaining a voice
in political life, particularly through formal political institutions.
This paper explores how ethnic minorities are represented in the political party system,
and then considers explanations for differences between countries. Much of the existing
literature on the topic applies the concept of the ‘ethnic minority party’ or ‘ethnonationalist
party’ (Gherghina and Jiglau, 2011). Various definitions of these terms are offered, but the key
idea seems to be twofold. First is the notion that such parties have as their primary objective the
promotion of the interests of a particular ethnic minority (Bernauer and Bochsler, 2011: 743;
Ishiyama and Breuning, 2011: 225). While other issues may be included in the party program,
these are secondary. Second is the notion of mobilization of the ethnic minority; the political
party turns constructed notions of shared identity and interest into an institutional mechanism for
their promotion (Gherghina and Jiglau, 2011: 52-3). In other words, the political party provides a
vehicle through which shared concerns or grievances of the minority can be represented through
the electoral process and possibly in the state’s institutional structure, if the party is successful.
While political mobilization may take other forms than political party activity, the latter is the
concern of this paper. In the first portion of the paper, we seek to develop a more nuanced
conceptualization of the notion of party representation of ethnic minorities by developing a
typology of party types.
In the second portion of the paper, we example four specific cases drawn from the new
EU member states of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). This involves a small-n comparison
that relies on a most-similar systems research design. Among the four cases are two pairs of
cases that share even more similarities with one another than they do with the other two cases
included in the study. The cases, however, differ in terms of the dependent variable, which is the
form of party representation of the most important ethnic minority in each of the four countries.
3 Accordingly we seek to identify those variables that explain the differing outcomes in terms of
party representation of ethnic minorities, despite the large number of similarities between the
cases. In this way we propose to generate hypotheses which can subsequently be tested more
systematically on a larger size sample.
Cases Studies
The four countries we have selected – Estonia, Latvia, Romania and Slovakia - are
among Central Europe’s most heterogeneous. At the time of post-communist democratization, all
four were dominated by nationalist elites that pushed for nation-state models and majority
control over the institutions of government. All are unitary states, thus federalism, as an
institutional factor affecting party formation or the political representation of ethnic minorities,
does not play a role. In none of the four cases has significant decentralization of power to
ethnically-dominated regions within the country taken place.
These countries are also similar in terms of the character of their ethnic minority
populations. All include sizable minorities with an ethnic homeland in a neighbouring state –
Russia in the case of the first two countries and Hungary in the later two. Historically, these
minorities also share a perceived image of ‘former masters’ vis-à-vis the majority group. This is
the case of the Russian minority in Estonia and Latvia between 1940 and the breakup of the
USSR as well as the case of the Magyar minority in Slovakia and Romania prior to WWI and
during Horthyst Hungary in WWII. In addition, smaller ethnic minorities are present in these
four states as well. (See Table 2) Most importantly, the largest minority in each of the four states
is actually large enough to pass existing electoral thresholds. Romania’s and Slovakia’s
Hungarian minorities stand at 6.5 per cent and 8.5 per cent of the population, respectively. In
Estonia, ethnic Russians make up 25% of the population (Statistics Estonia 2011), while in
Latvia they form just under 27%, down from 30.3 per cent in Estonia in 1989 (Melvin,
4 2000:135) and, about 34 per cent of the population in Latvia upon independence (Tsilevich,
1996) These figures may be misleading however, since most Russians were not immediately
granted citizenship (only those who had resided in the republic in the pre-World War II period,
plus a few other special categories), so that in 1992, at the time of the first post-independence
election, Melvin (2000: 148) estimates that about 10 per cent of the electorate was not of
Estonian ethnicity. The naturalization of the residents of minority ethnicity was a topic of
significant controversy after independence in both countries (Brands Kehris, 2010), The
proportion of Russians among Estonians citizens today stands at around 12 percent. 1 Muiznieks
(n.d.) estimated that in 2004 about 18 per cent of citizens in Latvia were Russian, but survey data
from 2011 suggest a somewhat lower proportion, between 15 and 16 per cent (Maturlionis et al,
2011: 9).2 Consequently, the current Russophone voting potential in both Baltic states exceeds
that of Romania’s and Slovakia’s Hungarians.
Similarly, the major minorities in all four states are, to varying degrees, concentrated in
specific areas of their respective states.3 Most of Slovakia’s 458,500 Hungarians live in the south
near the Hungarian border. They form a majority in two southwestern districts – Dunajska Streda
and Komarno (Statistical Office of the Republic of Slovakia 2011). The bulk of Romania’s
1,227,600 Magyars predominantly reside in the country’s centre, forming a majority in two
counties– Hargita and Covasna.4 According to the 2011 census, of Latvia’s 557,119 Russians, t
47.5 per cent lived in Riga, making up about 40 per cent of the city’s population (Statistical
Agency of Latvia, 2011). Also in the southeastern region of the country, Latgale, about 39
percent of the population is of Russian ethnicity. In other regions of Latvia, there are still
significant numbers of Russians, but a lower proportion, between 9 percent (in Vidzeme region)
and 19 per cent (in Pieriga region). In Estonia the Russian population is somewhat more
concentrated, making up about 37 per cent of the population in Tallinn, and over 72 per cent in
5 Ida-Viru county, in the northeastern part of the country. In other counties, their share does not
exceed 13 per cent (in Tartu county), but generally falls below ten per cent and in some counties
as low as 3 per cent. Therefore the degree of regional dispersion of the Russian population in
Estonia is lower than in Latvia.
In comparing the paired cases of Estonia/Latvia with those of Slovakia/Hungary, some
important differences should also be noted. While the Hungarian population groups in Romania
and Slovakia have resided there for centuries, most of the Russian minority population
immigrated to these two Baltic states during the Soviet period. A burgeoning literature on
representation of immigrant minority groups has developed in the face of the rising political
importance of these groups in many West European countries (see, e.g, Bloemraad and
Schönwälder, 2013),; however the Russian case in Estonia and Latvia differs from their
experience in important respects. First, Russians were associated with the dominant power in the
Soviet period. Second, by now a large proportion of ethnic Russians in these countries were born
in Estonia or Latvia respectively. For example, according to the 2011 census about 63 per cent of
Estonia’s ethnic Russians were born in Estonia, and a much larger proportion among younger
age groups (Statistics Estonia, 2011). Consequently they are no longer recent immigrants; rather,
increasingly they are second or third generation. They thus form a unique case, standing between
the position of recent immigrant minorities in Western Europe and historic minorities in the
Romanian and Slovak cases.
In terms of political culture, there are significant differences between the ethnic Russians
in Estonia and Latvia compared to the minority Hungarian populations in Slovakia and Romania.
The differences within each one of the two paired cases are, however, less significant. In both
Estonia and Latvia the communities were fragmented, indigenous leadership was weak,
relatively recent immigration predominated, and the population over-represented urban,
6 industrial workers who faced a significant decline in socio-economic status following the
collapse of the Soviet system (Vöörmann and Helemäe, 2003). Likewise in both Baltic cases, at
the outset of independence there was minimal social integration with the dominant ethnic group
and considerable suspicion and alienation between the groups. In both cases the Russian minority
was largely marginalized, links to the homeland were viewed by the dominant population group
with suspicion, and laws relating to citizenship and education elicited a similar sense of
grievance. Agarin (2011) notes the similar role of civil society organizations in the interaction
between minority groups and the state in all three of the Baltic states, namely their dependence
on state funding and their weak advocacy role, although the latter is somewhat more pronounced
in Latvia than in the other two cases. “Baltic policymakers seek to co-opt civic organizations by
granting CSOs [civil society organizations] financial incentives to align their work to
governmental priorities” (192). These organizations, accordingly, “have little chance of being
considered as partners in political processes” (196), and are most effective when their positions
are presented as having a larger societal significance or when those involved in the party
subsequently take on party posts, or vice versa (See also Sikk, 2006).
Some observers have noted differences between the Russian communities in Estonia and
Latvia, but compared to their similarities these are relatively minor. Pettai and Kreuzer (1999)
argue that the Russian community has been somewhat more homogeneous in Estonia, and Kolstø
(1997) notes that they were more active in the early 1990s than in Latvia. This may have been
partly due to the greater geographic concentration in Estonia and a greater preponderance of
industrial labourers in Estonia, whereas Russian military personnel were more strongly
represented among Russians in Latvia. In addition, more Russians had resided in Latvia for a
longer time there, which led to higher rates of intermarriage and bilingualism, and a less sharp
boundary “between the Russians and the ‘natives’” (Kolstø, 1997: 384-5). At the same time,
7 Berg (2001) notes that in Estonia a cleavage did emerge among Russians between citizens and
non-citizens, even though the latter are entitled to vote in local elections (unlike in Latvia).
Societal and cultural factors may play some role in the manner of representation of minority
interests, however the impact of the relatively minor differences between characteristics of the
Russian communities in Estonia and Latvia is hard to assess.
When it comes to the political culture of the Hungarian/Magyar minorities in the Slovak
and Romanian cases, important similarities exist. Magyar communities in both countries
experienced a radical change in status vis-à-vis their Slovak and Romanian neighbours. Under
the Dual Monarchy and in the brief period between the Nazi-sponsored Vienna Awards and
1945, ethnic-Hungarians enjoyed a position of domination while other nationalities were
subjected to harsh Magyarization and discriminatory policies. However, in post-WWI and post-
WWII Czechoslovakia and Romania, the Hungarian communities were themselves turned into
disenfranchised minorities subjected to discriminatory and assimilationist policies. These
policies included closing down Magyar-language schools and the targeting of Hungarian-owned
large estates for land-redistribution in favour of members of the ethnic majority.
As a result of this, the Magyar community in both states shared similar features; it
became deprived of its political and economic elites existent in previous periods of Hungarian
domination; it lost its dominance over many of the cities, becoming largely rural; and, aside from
members of the communist party, it was also deprived of strong indigenous leadership or
political organizations.
Hungarians in post-communist Romania and Slovakia continued to be viewed with
suspicion when it came to their loyalty to the state, especially as the two countries defined
themselves as national states and unitary republics. In particular, discussions of territorial
autonomy are specifically regarded by ethnic majorities and mainstream parties as a first step
8 towards breaking away and joining their ethnic kin in neighbouring Hungary (Boschler and
Szlcsik 2013, 430).
While not denying the existence of socio-cultural distinctions between the cases, these
differences are matter of degree rather than of kind; they take on significance in interaction with
political-institutional features. Therefore we focus on political and institutional factors which
interacted with but were not essentially determined by these socio-cultural differences.
The small number of studies focused on ethnic minority representation in CEEC have not
adequately explained the different trajectories of minority representation in cases such as
Romania, Slovakia, Latvia, and Estonia. Moreover, almost all works on ethnic minorities and
representation do not distinguish between the several types of minority representation that ethnic
groups may opt for; instead, they often assume a zero-sum game that distinguishes solely
between those minorities that succeed in achieving representation (by having an ethnic party in
parliament) and those that do not. Such conceptualizations usually understand the CEE ethnic
party or the ‘ethnic particularistic’ party as a reaction on the part of the losers of post-communist
transition (Kitschelt 1995, 463-464; Gunther and Diamond 2003, 183). The ethnic-based party is
often caricatured, regardless of the actual variations among them, as a party void of a
transformative program or extensive organization and often involving a narrow strategy to
promote solely ethnic group interests save for territorial autonomy. Rather than opting for
outright separation, these parties are considered to be using state structures to channel benefits
towards their particularistic ethnically-defined clientele. By virtue of their limited electoral
appeal, such parties are incapable of pursuing mainstream party status. Instead, they mobilize
only voters from their ethnic group and draw clear boundaries between ‘us’ and ‘them’, as the
ethnic interests are perceived to be inherently in conflict with those of the majority group.
9 Finally, because they often appeal to emotional symbols, they are depicted as usually being
dominated by a single charismatic leader. (Gunther and Diamond 2003: 183-184).
Although undeniably descriptive of some cases, this characterization promotes an ideal-
type ethnic minority party. Not all such parties fall neatly within this classification, however, and
our cases offer a range of modes of party representation of ethnic minorities. In many cases, their
programs reach beyond purely ethnic concerns. In Latvia the ethnic integrationist party
(Harmony Center) includes an economic dimension within its program. While in Romania and
Slovakia territorial autonomy is very much an issue advocated by Hungarian minority parties and
while the ‘us’-‘them’ dichotomy may describe Romania’s DUHR, it is not true of either
Slovakia’s new Most-Hid party nor of Latvia’s Harmony Centre party. Finally, the role and
charisma of the leader is sometimes important as in the Slovak case with Most-Hid’s Bela Bugar
and the DUHR’s Laszlo Tokes. It is not however the case for the DUHR after Tokes’ departure
in 2004.
Typology of Ethnic Party Minority Representation
Ethnic representation cannot be captured under an ideal-type model as it is not mono-
dimensional but can take several forms. The notion of minority ethnic party has been widely
considered in the literature as an important vehicle for political representation. Empirical
research that examines factors affecting the formation and impacts of ethnic minority parties
often overlooks critical distinctions in the nature of these parties. Therefore, we have developed
a more differentiated typology. The typology is based on two axes. The vertical axis draws
attention to the representation of minority ethnic interests, distinguishing between parties which
articulate such interests and those that do not. The horizontal axis distinguishes exclusivity or
inclusiveness, in terms of the explicit appeal of the party to the electorate, with one category
being exclusive parties that appeal only to a portion of the ethnic spectrum, and the other
10 referring to inclusive parties, meaning those that seek to draw support both from the ethnic
minority population and from the dominant national group.
As noted, classifications of ethnic minority parties have been only minimally nuanced
and generally have focused on the nature of ethnic demands, for example whether they include
advocacy for cultural or territorial autonomy (e.g., Bochsler and Szlcsik, 2013). Our typology, on
the other hand, focuses on the way in which the party representing the minority relates to other
population groups or political forces. Along similar lines, Ishiyama and Breuning (2011) argue
that the exclusivity of a minority party may be signaled by the inclusion of the group’s name in
the party title, and that adherents of such parties are generally more dissatisfied with democracy
in their country than the population at large. More broadly, these authors conclude that “what
differentiates different kinds of ethnic parties is how they portray themselves to an electorate
they seek to exclude” (227), contrasting this approach to those who classify parties by the nature
of their demands. Other authors, such as Chandra, include the notion of exclusiveness in their
understanding of minority ethnic parties (see Gherghina and Jiglau, 2011: 53).
SEE TABLE 1 IN THE APPENDIX
In our typology, however, we do not assume exclusivity, but rather differentiate different
approaches to it taken by parties that attract minority support. In Table 1, we distinguish three
types of ethnic minority representation embodied in differing types of political parties (the fourth
type, the national majority party, does not purport or strive to represent the minority): ethnic
particularistic minority parties, integrationist minority parties and finally, accommodative
majority parties. As noted above, the ‘ethnic particularistic’ minority party has been given the
most attention in the scholarly literature (Kitschelt 1995); it is focused almost exclusively on
representation of a particular ethnically defined clientele, drawing clear boundaries between ‘us’
11 and ‘them’, as the ethnic interests are perceived to be inherently in conflict with those of the
majority group (Gunther and Diamond 2003, 183-184). We suggest two additional types of party
representation for minorities: the integrationist minority party and the accommodative majority
party. The ‘integrationist’ minority party, although claiming to represent ethnic interests,
promotes cooperation between minority and majority groups. These parties seek to expand the
membership and electoral base beyond the ethnic group that was initially at the core of the
party’s organization; often they advertise their ethnically mixed membership as well as an
integrationist platform in order to appeal to voters outside that group. Third, the accommodative
majority party, although not claiming to exclusively represent minority interests, nonetheless
takes on the responsibility to be the voice of a particular ethnic group within the legislature, even
though the minority does not exclusively control the party membership and structure. The
question we ask is, what factors promote the dominance of one or another of these party types in
representing ethnic minorities in particular states. While we do not address the question of the
normative advantages or disadvantages of the various types of representation, this question might
highlight the significance of our findings.
Despite similarities between our four cases, the trajectories taken by parties in these four
countries represent the three types of party situations that involve minority groups. (See Table 2)
Comparing Romania and Slovakia, one can observe the consolidation of a strong ethnically
particularistic Magyar minority party in one case (Democratic Party of Hungarians in Romania)
but not in the other (Slovakia), where an integrationist minority party (Most-Hid) is strongest.
Despite being a relatively larger proportion of the electorate compared to Hungarians in Romania
or Slovakia, in neither Estonia nor Latvia has a Russian particularistic minority party gained
hold. In the Latvian case an integrationist minority party (Harmony Center) has by far the
strongest support from the Russian citizen population (running a successful contest for the
12 position of Riga’ mayor in the most recent election). In Estonia, in contrast, the Center Party, of
the accommodative majority type, draws the overwhelming majority of Russian votes. The
puzzle, therefore, lies in the fact that in spite of the evident similarities, the most important ethnic
minority in each of the four cases does not display similar paths of representation in the political
party system. In one case, an ethnic particularistic party has successfully formed and entered
parliament; in two others it is the integrationist minority parties that are most successful; and in
the fourth case an accommodative majority party has taken on the role of promoting minority
issues. The question we ask is what factors influence these distinct different trajectories of ethnic
minority parliamentary representation, with a particular focus on political-institutional factors.
SEE TABLE 2 IN THE APPENDIX
First we examine the role of formal electoral institutions, particularly the electoral
system, in relation to the size and territorial concentration of the minority electorate. (We have
excluded from our analysis ethnic minorities that would fall below the established threshold for
representation in the proportional representation system, Bernauer and Boschsler, 2011; Bochsler
2010). A second type of explanation focuses on political strategies of the dominant ethnic
leadership, and their institutional expression. These might include definitions of minority status,
and symmetric versus asymmetric state strategies towards minorities. State policies or
institutional structures may be differentially accommodative or restrictive in relation to different
ethnic minority groups or sub-groups within a given ethnic minority. Such policies and
institutions may favour or advantage some minorities while simultaneously discriminating
against others. In exploring this logic, we assume that ethnic elites pursue a rational strategy
based on incentives offered to them, however, these incentives extend beyond the more
frequently cited impacts of the electoral rules.
13
In particular, asymmetric state policies (in which some minorities or subgroups of
particular ethnic groups are favoured over others) may have a ‘divide-and-conquer’ effect, either
between ethnic groups or within particular ethnic minorities, making the likelihood of formation
of a unified political movement more or less likely. It is our hypothesis that where state policies
or institutional structures affect various ethnic minority groups asymmetrically, i.e., where they
negatively discriminate against some minority groups while positively discriminating against
others, ‘ethnic particularistic’ minority parties are more likely to be successful. This is because
various ethnic groups are more likely to develop particularistic understandings of their interests,
based on the differential incentives offered to them.
A different situation may arise when state authorities privilege certain sub-groups within
particular ethnic minorities, especially in key transition periods. We consider this to be a form of
asymmetrical cooptation, which involves efforts to win the loyalty of opinion leaders or
influential figures in the given ethnic minority movement. While one could also interpret this as
a ‘divide and conquer’ strategy it contains an affirmative element by offering positive incentives
for public figures to participate in mainstream politics, and in this way to increase the likelihood
of positive integration. We hypothesize that such actions will encourage support by ethnic
minority groups for accommodative majority parties.
Finally, in states that engage in symmetric state policies (where different minority groups
and their sub-groups are treated in the same way), ethnic minorities are neither discouraged from
working with one another, nor are they encouraged to work with parties that primarily represent
the majority ethnic group. In this case ‘integrationist minority parties’ are more likely to be
successful.
Another factor that may affect the response of minority group leaders is the attitude of
majority parties toward the ethnic group. Referring to the work of Meguid, Bernauer and
14 Bochsler note the distinction between ‘adversarial, accommodative, and dismissive’ approaches
of majority parties (2011: 742), which may have differential impacts on the reaction of minority
ethnic parties (accommodative majority parties reducing their likely impact, while the other
types may make them more attractive). While Bernauer and Bochsler (2010: 750) conclude that
the position of the mainstream parties does not have a significant impact of the likelihood of the
entry of a minority ethnic party into electoral competition, we posit that historically this may
have been an important factor in setting a path dependent trajectory.
Electoral System + Territorial Concentration as Explanations for Minority Party Representation
This explanation, one commonly referred to in the literature, would suggest that the
electoral system, combined with the territorial concentration of ethnic minorities within a state, is
an important variable in explaining how such minorities are represented through the party
system; the chances of political representation are not just about the number of ethnic minority
members but also about where they live (Bochsler 2011: 233) and how the vote is calculated.
Important features of electoral systems could be whether they are based on a single member
district (SMD, plurality) principle or on some form of proportional representation (PR); in the
latter case, as noted, the electoral threshold for party representation could be important, as well
as the particular variant of PR that is adopted (Boscher, 2006, Boschler, 2010a).
By virtue of their very purpose, ethnic minority parties are limited in the constituencies
they aim to represent. In such circumstances, a majoritarian system, which tends to limit
effective political competition to a few large parties, could present a major obstacle to
parliamentary representation. Most research suggests that a proportional representation system is
more favourable to ethnic minorities that are of a size adequate to cross the established threshold;
however, there is some disagreement about how important a factor the electoral system is.5
15 Unless geographically concentrated, representatives of ethnic minorities would stand no chance
of running independently and winning unless they were part of a larger political bloc or party. In
situations where ethnic minorities are, however, geographically concentrated, a pure SMD
system would offer the opportunity for significant representation.
PR electoral systems, which favor smaller parties, would generally be more
accommodating to the formation of parties exclusively concerned with addressing and
representing minority issues, particularly in situations where the minority is dispersed
geographically. Within PR, a plethora of additional electoral mechanisms exist that may hinder
or promote ethnic minority parties. Daniel Bochsler (2010b) identifies two major electoral
constraints. The first is national legal threshold for a party to gain representation; this can range
from relatively small thresholds such as Albania’s three per cent to large ones such as Russia’s
seven per cent (International Foundation for Electoral Systems, IFES, Election Guide: Albania)).
Secondly, if, in a PR system, the entire country is treated as one large electoral district,
minorities cannot capitalize on their geographic concentration in a specific region, (Bochsler
2010b, 165-166). Thus, although they may be represented in an electoral sense, their influence
may be diluted. If the size of the ethnic minority is less than or close to the threshold then a
particularistic ethnic party would have difficulty gaining representation in this type of PR
system. In that case the party would either need to reach out to other parts of the population (the
minority integrationist approach) or seek representation through a party dominated by the other
ethnicities (the majority accommodative party). Even if the minority population in the electorate
exceeds the threshold by a reasonable margin, success of a particularistic minority party would
require an average or above average level of electoral mobilization among the ethnic minority
group, and relatively homogenous electoral preferences.
16
If, however, the PR system involves multiple electoral districts, then minorities can
capitalize on their geographic concentration in a specific region, even if they do not form a
majority in any particular region. Various other variants of the PR system combine voter choice
among individual candidates on the party lists, which could encourage selection of those
candidates that are visibly of the ethnic minority. Mixed member proportional (MMP) systems
would similarly allow particularistic ethnic parties to launch candidates successfully in districts
where the ethnic minority dominates. None of the new EU member states of Central and Eastern
Europe has a purely first-past-the-post system. Most use PR or some type of MMP system,
which allocates at least part of the parliamentary seats through PR, with the PR threshold at
around five per cent in most instances, including the cases we are examining (see Table 2).
Nonetheless, particularities of the PR system can make a difference.
The two Baltic States both use district PR systems with multiple seats allocated per
electoral district. Estonia has 12 multi-member constituencies while Latvia has five; given the
smaller population of Estonia overall, the electoral districts are considerably smaller in
population and more differentiated demographically than in Latvia. This system is especially
favorable to parties catering to regional interests. A larger number of districts with multiple seats
increases the probability of local interests (including concentrated ethnic minority interests)
being represented in parliament and should, in principle, provide fertile ground for a
particularistic ethnic party to gain a foothold, more so in Estonia than Latvia.
There are some important distinctions between the operation of Estonia’s and Latvia’s PR
systems, and the question would be whether these help to explain the different forms that
minority party representation takes in the two cases. Whereas Latvia’s system involves party lists
that allow expression of personal preferences within the chosen list, the Estonian PR system has
the citizen voting for a particular candidate, with seats allocated between the parties based on a
17 three stage process involving individual mandates, district list, and compensatory elements to
achieve the final proportional outcome. A Latvian voter is given a set of party lists representing
all parties running in the district; the voter selects one party list to support and may then annotate
the ballot by indicating support for particular names on the list or by crossing some out. Seats
are distributed in each district according to the proportional vote, while rankings of candidates on
each party list are affected by the tally of positive and negative annotations. In the Estonian case,
the voter selects a candidate from the list of candidates running in the particular district and
enters that candidate’s registration number on the ballot (OSCE, 2007). When votes are tallied,
candidates that receive more than the proportional quota of votes in the district are elected. A
second step involves distribution of seats between parties in each of the districts according to
proportion of the votes received there for candidates associated with each party, and a final
‘compensatory’ stage distributes remaining seats to match the proportional outcome of the
election.
While both systems allow the voter to express candidate preferences, in the Latvian case
selection of the party list is done first and determines the final outcome. In the Estonian case,
selection of the individual candidate is done first, and this determines the proportional
distribution between parties. Khrychikov and Miall (2002: 193) contend that particular features
of Estonia’s application of the PR electoral system have helped to “[channel] the activities of
Russian-speaking groups into Estonian parties.” They argue that the system “encourages parties
to compete for votes across different constituencies and it also favours cross-party alliances and
voting for individuals” (202). Specifically, parties may run prominent Russian candidates in
those districts where larger numbers of Russians reside and in this way attract votes to the party,
thus increasing the party’s proportional share. Therefore, for example, including candidates with
Slavic names in the regional party list in districts with a large Russian population would
18 presumably increase the party’s attractiveness. In Estonia, the Russian-speaking population is
concentrated in only two regions, Tallinn, and Ida-Viru County. Beginning in the 2003
parliamentary election, the Center Party was able to capitalize on this system and has, since then,
run 3-4 identifiably Russian candidates in the Ida-Viru district, of the ten permitted on the ballot.
Since 2003, Mihhail Stanuhhin, the leading Center Party candidate there, has won enough votes
to guarantee himself a seat in the first distribution phase and by 2011 ranked third in the country
in his personal mandate votes compared to the quota needed to win a personal seat in his district,
falling only behind Centre Party leader Edgar Savisaar and the Reform party leader, Andrus
Ansip. Another Centre Party Russian candidate, Deniss Borodits, also made his way into the
parliament through the personal mandate, in this case elected from one of the Tallinn districts.
Two other Russians and one ethnic Estonian were elected on the Ida-Viramuu district list for the
Center Party, with one ethnic Russian elected from the district list from the Social Democratic
Party (National Election Committee, 2012).6 Over time, other parties have also included Russian
candidates in their lists in Ida-Viru county, with some success, indicating a more assertive effort
to court the Russian vote. For example, most of the other parties ran candidates with Russian
names in the district between 2003 and 2011, however only two were successful (one from the
Reform Party was successful, in this case as part of the third stage compensatory list; and one
from the Social Democratic Party in 2011, in this case from the district list).
Khrychikov and Miall argue (2002: 203) that at least until 2002 there was “a clear
preference for non-Estonians to cast their votes for candidates with Slavic names” whereas Berg
(2001: 18-10) suggests that ethnicity is not a primary determinant of vote, which had more to do
with a range of considerations. Apparently the Center Party affiliation was important as well the
Slavic cast, evidenced by the fact that in local elections in Ida-Viru County that party draws
strong majority support (e.g., 76.6% in the Narva local elections in 2009). It should be noted that,
19 unlike in Latvia, in Estonia non-citizen residents are entitled to vote in local elections, so these
local vote outcomes do not translate directly into national electoral results. Thus, while the
electoral system creates an opportunity for the Center Party, the party’s established reputation as
‘the’ party for Russians to support is also important. Despite all the conditions which arguably
would favor the success of a Russian ethnic minority party in Estonia, the Russians there have
opted for one of the major mainstream majority parties instead. By attracting prominent
Russians to the party, combined with the personalized choice provided for in the electoral
system, the Center Party has been able to define itself as the party of ethnic Russians, despite the
fact that the top leadership is made up of ethnic Estonians, that ethnic Estonians dominate in
most electoral districts, and that positions on issues that concern the Russian minority are
moderate and only form one component of the party’s identity. The size of the ethnic minority
may be one factor that motivates mainstream parties to reach out to the Russian community,
however the electoral system may play a facilitating role.
The electoral system in Latvia places more emphasis on the attraction of the party as
opposed to the individual candidates. While creating the opportunity for an ethnic minority party
to gain support, the PR system does not provide the parties there with the same flexibility to
present themselves with different faces in various districts with differing electoral makeups.
Even though there may be more Russian candidates included on the district electoral lists in
areas with a more strongly Russian electorate, the voter first picks the favoured party list, then
can evaluate the candidates, if desired. Unlike in Estonia, the only party that gained
parliamentary seats with a significant representation of Russian candidates on its list in 2011 was
the Harmony Center Party. Biographical data provided on the Latvian Electoral Commission
website indicates self-declared ethnicity of elected deputies. Of the deputies elected on the
Harmony Center list about 40 per cent indicate Russian ethnicity and only five indicate Latvian
20 ethnicity. One indicates German and one Karelian, and of those with no ethnicity indicated, the
majority appear to have Russian names. Compared to Estonia’s Center Party, Harmony Center is
more clearly a Russian party, but with some Latvian presence. In other words, it does not project
itself as an exclusivist Russian party, but an inclusive one. For other parties in Latvia, the vast
majority of deputies elected in 2011 indicate their ethnicity as Latvian with only one self-
identified Russian, one Lithuanian, and one deputy of Liv ethnicity in 2011. (Central Election
Commission of Latvia; see also Brands Kehris, 2010, p. 113). Neither the electoral system nor
the identity of the other parties encourages them to include Russian candidates on the party list,
thus reinforcing the existing ethnic cleavage in the party system.
In contrast to the more nuanced electoral systems in Latvia and Estonia, Slovakia and
Romania (until 2008) each had a single country-wide district with a 5% threshold. In Romania
prior to 2008, the system used was closed-list proportional representation. The Slovak system
bears some resemblance to the Latvian system but with one national list as opposed to district
ones. In the Slovak case, electors are given a ballot for each party. On the ballots, the parties list
all their candidates running. In addition to voting for a party, voters may circle up to four
preferred candidates from the party’s list. (IFES, Election Guide: Slovakia). Both the Slovak and
the Romanian variations of the proportional representation system are not favorable for smaller
ethnic groups. Nonetheless, PR would not impede concentrated or dispersed minorities from
entering parliament, provided they are larger than the threshold.
In Slovakia, the country’s Hungarian minority stands only slightly higher than the 5%
threshold at 8.5 per cent, an important factor given that a national list is used. However,
Hungarian ethnic parties have constantly entered national parliaments. Up until 1998, they have
done so in coalition. After 1998, the Slovak law ceased to recognize coalitions. As a result,
Slovakia’s three major Magyar parties merged in the Party of the Hungarian Coalition (SMK) in
21 order to increase their chances of entering. Since the radicalization of the SMK in 2007, Most-
Hid, an integrationist party that split from the Hungarian Coalition, has been particularly
successful at gaining Magyar votes at the expense of the SMK.
The number of Hungarians in Romania stands at 6.5 per cent, barely surpassing the 5%
threshold. However, similar to the Slovak case, the ethnically based Democratic Union of
Hungarians in Romania (DUHR) has been very successful at gaining parliamentary seats in
every election since 1990. What is more interesting is that the DUHR is an ethnic particularistic
party. According to Bochsler as well as Bernauer (2011), this is less likely when the ethnic
minority hardly surpasses the threshold as it would need to vote strategically for one single party
and show up in high turnouts (744). Studies related to ethnic party mobilization and EU elections
have shown however that this is exactly what happens (Spirova, 2011). Throughout the last two
decades Slovakia’s electoral system has not undergone major changes. Romania, on the other
hand, has switched to a mixed system with 315 single-member electoral districts after 2008.
Candidates must now obtain 50 per cent +1 of the total number of votes in order to win the seat
in their district. Votes in those districts where no candidate obtains a majority are tallied
nationally and seats are allocated proportionally provided the party passes a five per cent
threshold or wins three single-seat districts in the senate/six single-seat districts in the lower
house (IFES, Election Guide: Romania). Districts with single-seats generally handicap parties
advocating minority interests. However, if the minority is highly concentrated within the
electoral riding, then the high threshold is effectively meaningless. In Romania, after 2008,
despite the small single-seat districts where candidates must win 50 per cent +1 of the votes,
ethnic parties in highly concentrated Magyar areas have no problem taking their seats.
An additional aspect worth mentioning is the presence of special reserved seats for
national minorities. While in the Baltic cases as well as in Slovakia no reserved seats exist, the
22 Romanian electoral system tries to offset the hindrance of ethnic minorities (other than Magyars)
to enter parliament by creating 18 reserved seats for minority groups that cannot win
representation otherwise. The electoral law envisions that each minority can possess one
reserved seat only... Thus the Romanian Constitution clearly spells out that organizations of
national minorities that fail to pass the national threshold automatically receive a seat in the
lower chamber (Spirova, 2011: 9) if they win 5 percent (10 percent after 2004) of the average
number of valid votes cast for lower house representatives in single-seat constituencies. This
came down to just 1,300 votes prior to the 2004 changes and circa 2,100 votes after (Protsyk and
Matichescu 2010, 34). This threshold is so low that practically all the 18 official minorities are
able to send representatives to parliament; because ethnic-Magyars have ethnic representation
through the Democratic Union of Hungarians in Romania (DUHR), they do not receive an
additional reserved seat7.
In terms of who can vote for reserved minority representatives, no restrictions exist that
would limit voters to ethnic minority members only. As ethnicity is a determined through self-
identification, it is possible for ethnic-Romanians to vote for ethnic minority representatives
(King and Marian, 2012). Because of this, smaller minority organizations often find themselves
winning five times or even twenty times more votes than then actual members of the minority
group.
SEE TABLE 3 IN THE APPENDIX
In short, based on expectations related to the nature of the electoral systems,
particularistic parties have not emerged where we might normally have expected them – that is,
they are not present in countries where the minority group far surpasses the threshold, such in
Latvia, Estonia, and Slovakia – and in situations where other aspects of the electoral system
23 (such as the relatively small PR districts in Estonia) might have facilitated their emergence. On
the other hand, in Romania, where Hungarians barely constitute more than six per cent of the
total population, we might expect to see an integrationist minority party, in order to expand the
party’s voter base, but instead we see a particularistic minority party.
Particularities of the PR systems adopted in the four countries may, however, in fact
explain some of this variation. First, in Romania, the reserved seats for ethnic minorities may
play a role, as we discuss further below. Second, in Estonia, the particular nature of the PR
system may make parties representing the ethnic majority more likely to appeal successfully to
the minority. Nonetheless, as electoral system and territorial concentration on their own do not
seem to adequately explain which type emerges in particular cases, we now turn to examine
other explanations, particularly those based on historical patterns of development within
particular countries and strategies of majority elites vis-à-vis ethnic minorities. These strategies,
in turn, also, in some cases, may have been important reasons that the various electoral systems
developed as they did.
Majority Elite Strategies and Party Representation of Ethnic Minorities
We hypothesize that an understudied phenomenon in ethnic minority studies is the way
that states and majority political parties treat those minorities. Often state policies and associated
institutional structures are generated by motivations of key political actors at some key stage in
the political development process. In the case of the post-communist countries under
examination here, while some of the groundwork for these approaches may have been laid in the
communist period, the pivotal period was often the first few years or decade after independent
statehood was restored because in this time period new political institutions, including political
parties were established.
24
Three types of state strategies can be identified: (1) instances where the state
discriminates between different minority groups; (2) cases where the states seeks to
asymmetrically coopt portions of a particular minority ethnic group over other parts of that same
minority; and (3) situations in which the state pursues an even-handed approach to different
ethnic groups and subgroups within particular ethnic minorities. In the latter case, this is not to
say that the latter group is necessarily accommodative towards minorities but rather that it does
not differentiate between them (at least in legislation concerning political representation).
Romania seems to represent the clearest example of the first case (where the state has
discriminated between different ethnic minority groups) and Estonia the second, while Slovakia
and Latvia fit into in the third category (involving non-discriminatory policies). We hypothesize
that these institutional choices, at least in these instances, are significantly responsible for the
different types of ethnic representation that ensued.
The Romanian and Estonian Cases: Cases of Asymmetric State Policy
The Romanian electoral law is in and of itself a case of asymmetric state policy as it
gives preferential reserved seats to some minorities (i.e., small minority groups) but not to
ethnic-Hungarians, based on the argument that they receive representation already though the
DUHR. Thus, the very establishment of this system is what is of interest to us. The motives
attributed to Romanian political elites for codifying this practice immediately after the anti-
communist 1989 Revolution vary. One purpose may have been to increase legitimacy of the new
post-1989 National Salvation Front (NSF) government. Similarly, it may have been intended to
appease international concern in light of the deteriorating situation of minorities in the Balkans
during the 1990s (King and Martin 2012: 566). Most importantly, however, some analysts see it
as directed at counterbalancing the presence and influence of the anti-NSF Democratic Union of
Hungarians in Romania (Alionescu 2004, 63). In short, the intent of Romanian political elites
25 after 1989 may have been to appear pro-minority, while limiting the ability of the Hungarian
minority to effectively build a broader base of power. The result of this has been that the 18
minority representatives who enter parliament via reserved seats are the most loyal allies of any
government (left or right). Such representatives are aware that preferential rules concerning the
elections of minorities could easily be removed by a simple amendment to the electoral law
(Alionescu 2004, 69). Therefore, unlike the DUHR, minority MPs unconditionally vote for the
party in power as they do not want to endanger their presence in future parliaments.
This asymmetric electoral law has other implications as well. For instance, it
automatically encourages ethnic particularistic parties among minorities other than the
Hungarians, as competition for the reserved minority seats occurs solely between ethnic
organizations. Alionescu (2004) illustrates that since the minority seat is guaranteed and since
the threshold is so low, the electoral system encourages a proliferation of ethnic organizations as
was the case with Bulgarian and Rroma groups (67-68). Additionally, mainstream parties are
neither encouraged to recruit members of ethnic minorities, nor do they attempt to appeal to
ethnic minorities as the reserved seat candidates are already competing for minority votes.
Protsyk and Matichescu (2010) illustrate that this is exactly what is exhibited in the party
membership of mainstream majority parties (36).
Furthermore, the law has often been abused by ethnic-Romanians who established
alternative ‘ethnic parties’ with little or no link with actual ethnic groups, thus passing the
smaller ‘ethnic-threshold’ and entering parliament by claiming to represent minority issues
(Alionescu 2004, 68-69). The system thus occasionally fails to do what was originally
envisioned – to represent small ethnic minority groups.
However, counterbalancing the Magyar vote by positively discriminating in favour of all
other minorities has had an effect on the DUHR as well. The party has been prevented from
26 successfully taking on the issues of other minority groups to expand its voter base (such as Most-
Hid in Slovakia) since their representation is assured through the guaranteed MP seat.
Furthermore, by diminishing the importance of Magyar interests in parliament, this
system encourages the DUHR to adopt an ethnic particularist position instead of an integrationist
one. The DUHR platform is focused exclusively on Magyar issues and places important
emphasis on Magyar culture, Magyar representation as well as Magyar territorial autonomy
(UDMR 2012). The party members as well as the voter-base for the party is similarly
overwhelmingly Magyar as Hungarians vote almost exclusively for this party (Alionescu 2004,
65; Protsyk and Matichescu 2010, 37). The mix of policies towards Hungarians and the other
national minorities has resulted in the particularistic nature of the DUHR. As the majority parties
are perceived to be not just insensitive but also outright hostile to Magyar representation
(epitomized by the electoral rule aimed at balancing the Magyar ethnic presence in parliament
with other ‘loyal’ minorities), DUHR is trapped into a particularist position. A different kind of
asymmetric policy towards minorities was practiced in Estonia in the period immediately
following independence. In this case, however the asymmetric approach involved cooptation of
important figures within the Russian-speaking minority. Like Latvia, Estonia was an independent
state before 1940 and saw its independence as a restoration rather than establishment of a new
state. Combined with the questions of legitimacy surrounding Estonia’s incorporation into the
USSR in 1940, citizenship was granted only to those who, irrespective of ethnicity, were citizens
of the country before 1940, including some Russian-speaking Old Believer communities that had
settled in Estonia much earlier. Overall approximately 80,000 Russian-speakers (ca. 25 per cent
of Estonia’s Russophones) were quite quickly granted citizenship. Nonetheless, the largest
portion of ethnic Russians as well as many ethnic Ukrainians and Belorussians who had entered
Estonia (as industrial workers or associated with the military) under Soviet rule were not granted
27 citizenship. However, very significant was a policy of granting citizenship to a select group of
Russian-speaking pro-independence political activists (Berg, 2001). This group, estimated at
about 500 individuals, included media personnel, political leaders, community activists, trade
union leaders, and cultural figures. At the same time the Estonian state, under the leadership of
Edgar Savisaar of the moderately leftist Centre Party (Sikk, 2006), encouraged the formation of
Russian civic organizations, particularly the Russian Parliamentary Assembly (, 2000: 149), a
process, that facilitated the development of a segment of the Russian-speaking community with a
Russian-Estonian identity rather than a Russian identity that would link them to the Russian
Federation. Berg (2001: 15) argues that “this helped promote political factionalism among
Russian ‘ethnic entrepreneurs’, between so-called integrationists (or ‘loyalists’), who had chosen
institutional politics as an arena to champion citizens’ rights, and ‘hard-liners’ (or ‘extremists’),
who demanded both unconditional citizenship and the installation of Russian as the second
official language.” According to Park (1994) the Estonian government treated these
organizations like other public formations, and there emerged Russian-dominated trade unions,
city councils, and media. The website of the government of Estonia (Estonia.EU) indicates that a
much larger number, 24,201 individuals, were granted citizenship by naturalization in the period
between 1992-1995 due to their support ‘for the independence of Estonia” (Estonia.eu).
One result may have been a division within the Russian speaking population between the
‘Soviet-Russians’ represented by Intermovement who supported the continuation of the USSR
and those “Baltic-Russians’ that supported independence (Melvin, 2000). Thus the ethnic
Russian party that did gain about 6% of the vote and 6 seats in the Estonian parliament in 1992
(Our Home is Estonia) splintered shortly after that electoral success, with votes dispersing
among various Estonian parties (Khrychikov and Miall, 2002: 203; Pettai, 1996). In addition
that part of the Russian-speaking population that was oriented negatively toward the new
28 Estonian state was also less likely to make the effort to attain Estonian citizenship, forming part
of the current seven per cent of the Estonian population that are Russian citizens and of the eight
per cent with undetermined statehood (neither Russian nor Estonian citizens).These individuals
cannot vote in national elections and cannot be members of political parties; they therefore
cannot contribute to supporting an ethnic party. They were, however, granted the right to vote in
local elections (unlike in Latvia) but not to form parties or run for office. Those parties
dominated by ethnic Estonians are able to compete for their votes in local elections.
This projected image of the “Baltic” vs. the “Soviet” Russian has had a significant impact
on the choice for political representation that ethnic-Russians have opted for. Because of the
assimilationist implications that naturalization entailed, Baltic Russians were encouraged to
develop a particular Baltic Russian identity rather identification with Russians in Russia or
elsewhere in the post-Soviet space. As a result of this, ever since 1991, the Centre Party of Edgar
Savisaar has been particularly successful at projecting an image of the mainstream party that
represented Russians, alongside its social-liberal economic program (Vihalemm 2007, 483);
furthermore, it has periodically been part of the governing coalition in Tallinn (briefly in 1995,
2002-03, and 2005-07), as well as succeeding at the local level in Tallinn and in localities in Ida-
Viru county, thus reducing the political marginalization of the Russian speaking population
there.
The Slovak and Latvian Cases: Cases of Symmetric State Policy
The asymmetric policies employed in Romania and Estonia are somewhat different from
those in the other two cases, Slovakia and Latvia. In both of these cases, minority integrative
parties emerged.
In Slovakia, no attempt was made to positively or negatively discriminate between
various ethnic minority groups. While this has deprived Roma, Czechs, Ruthenians and
29 Ukrainians of receiving the type of representation they would have in Romania, it has also
allowed the major Hungarian parties to adopt a moderate integrationist stance while
simultaneously taking on the responsibility to represent Rroma or Ruthenian minority interests.
The Party of the Hungarian Coalition (between 1998 and 2007) and especially the new Most-Hid
Party, formed in 2009, adopted a more integrationist message rather than advocating exclusive
Hungarian interests. When the leader of the Hungarian Coalition, Bela Bugar, was ousted as the
party turned towards a more radical platform in 2007, Bugar and former Hungarian Coalition
moderates formed a new party that also included a number of ethnic-Slovaks in an attempt to
project a moderate counter-image to that of the Coalition (Berenyi, 2013). In the 2010 as well
as the 2012 parliamentary elections, it was the new Most-Hid party that made it to parliament
while the Hungarian Coalition failed to pass the 5% threshold. Most-Hid –even more so than the
Coalition before its radicalization – places a significant emphasis on the cooperation between
Hungarians and Slovaks and claims to appeal to both Magyar but also Slovak voters. It
renounces attempts to create a separate autonomous Hungarian territorial polity and instead opts
for a multi-national bi-cultural Slovak state (Most-Hid Program 2012). In its program, it
mentions the Rroma and other minorities more often than it mentions Magyars and it promotes
itself as a multi-ethnic rather than ethnic party as its membership is drawn from all of Slovakia’s
ethnic groups (Most-Hid Program 2012). Finally, Latvia’s case resembles Slovakia. Like
Estonia, Latvia granted limited automatic citizenship upon independence to those that were
citizens in 1940 and their descendants. Those that took up residence after that year had to pass
the same sort of language and history tests as in Estonia. As in Estonia there was also an attempt
to court loyal Russians, but no special legal accommodation was given to large elements of the
Russian-speaking elite that supported the independence movement. The reasons for this are
subject to speculation, but it seems possible that the Latvian population felt more threatened than
30 in neighbouring Estonia, in part because the portion of the population of Latvian ethnicity had
fallen more dramatically, to 52 per cent (just above majority status) compared to 61.4 per cent in
Estonia in 1989 (Melvin, 2000: 135). Higher rates of inter-marriage and residential inter-mixing
(Melvin, 2000: 136) in Latvia may have also raised greater concerns about ethnic dilution; in
addition, Russians formed the majority in virtually all Latvian cities, with Latvians dominant
only in the countryside (Dreifelds, 1996: 148). This situation may have contributed to higher
levels of tension and a greater sense of threat to ethnic integrity both among Latvians and
Russians. According to Melvin, Latvian elites also did not “[develop] a strategy to facilitate the
creation of civil institutions within the non-Latvian community” (2000: 142), although Brands
Kehris (2011) notes several efforts to do so. Non-citizens were not given the right to vote in local
elections, as they were in Estonia. All of these factors led to fragmentation and an exit of
Russian-speakers to seek advancement in the private rather than the political sphere, also
developing close ties to Russian business (Melvin, 2000: 144).
Reasons why a particularistic party did not develop in Latvia may be similar to those
affecting Estonia. As in Estonia, fragmentation and infighting among Russian groups (Tsilevich,
1996: 56), lack of leadership, and the low proportion of Russian speaking voters may have
contributed to this outcome. By 2011 about two thirds of Latvia’s non-Latvian population
received citizenship (Latvian Ministry of Foreign Affairs 2012); as the number of Russian-
speaking voters increased and the possibilities to gain political representation accordingly also
became more realistic, it made sense not just to appeal to ethnic Russians but to Russian-
speakers of various ethnicities (Ukrainians, Belorussians, and others), since citizenship and
language concerns would unite these groups. Furthermore, given the importance of the
citizenship issue, a particularistic message might be counterproductive to the party’s efforts to
push for more Russians to be “let in” or enfranchised. While these factors gravitated against a
31 particularistic party outcome, on the other hand no Latvian majority party matched the effort of
the Center Party in Estonia to court Russian votes.
The result was the articulation of a strong Russophone integrationist political movement
that took the form of the Russian minority party, National Harmony. In addition a number of
minor more radical parties claiming to represent Russophones were formed, but they did not gain
significant support. In most elections, it was the moderate National Harmony - and later on the
Harmony Centre party - that became the main political advocate representing Russian interests.
More radical Russian parties had to either join the Harmony Centre coalition or simply stay
outside parliament. The path towards suffrage taken in the Latvian case has created a particular
emphasis on citizenship and languages - illustrated even by the most recent language referendum
of 2012. This has ultimately polarized ethnic-Latvians versus ethnic-Russians and has prevented
a mainstream Latvian party from becoming a credible Russian-minority advocate as in the
Estonian case. On the other hand, it has also promoted the creation of an integrationist political
movement which, although aiming to represent Russian interests, is by no means exclusivist. Its
political platform is not Russian-particularistic but rather integrationist as its primary aim is to
enfranchise the country’s non-Latvian residents. The disadvantage is, however, that Harmony
Centre and its predecessors have never been accepted into the national governing coalition,
(despite the fact that the party won the largest number of votes in the September 2011
parliamentary elections), presumably due to reluctance on the part of the other important parties,
namely Zatler’s Reform Party and the Unity Party in 2011, to form a coalition with such strong
Russian connections.
Conclusion
This paper has identified three types of parties in Central and Eastern Europe that cater to
ethnic issues: ethnic particularistic minority parties, integrationist minority parties and
32 accommodative majority parties. We have explored political and institutional factors that affect
the success of one type of party as opposed to the other two. The study is based on a comparison
of two pairs of largely comparable cases (Estonia and Latvia on the one hand, and Hungary and
Romania on the other),
The argument is that while electoral laws and patterns of territorial concentration may be
a factor in explaining differences in party representation of minorities, they become important n
the broader political institutional context that emerged in the first decade following the collapse
of Soviet power. In all four cases, the nature of the electoral system would have been conducive
to formation of a particularistic ethnic party. However, this only occurred successfully in one
case. In the case of Romania, state policies towards various minorities were asymmetrical; here,
the ‘ethnic particularistic’ minority parties was successful. In –another case – Estonia - state
policy and at least one major party pursued a cooptative and integrationist approach; here an
accommodative majority party has been the most successful. Finally, in cases where institutional
rules did not discriminate between their minorities (Latvia and Slovakia), ‘integrationist’
minority parties emerged as the most attractive.
These conclusions will require confirmation in further case studies in future studies.. In
addition the particular features of the Baltic cases also deserve attention, given that the gradual
acquisition of the franchise created particular problems for both ethnic minority and ethnic
majority actors in attracting political support from Russian-speakers. The role of historic
contingency (e.g., of particular leaders and political forces such as Savisaar) in the transition
period may also be important. What is clear is that neither a mechanistic examination of the
impact of electoral systems nor a sociocultural explanation that focuses exclusively on the nature
of the ethnic minority group are adequate to explain the outcomes; political factors that originate
in the actions and strategies of the majority ethnic leadership must also be examined. This
33 conclusion places upon these groups a certain key responsibility for fostering political outcomes
that encourage greater political integration and more effective representation of the minority.
34
APPENDIX
Table 1: Types of parties, in relation to ethnic minority populations
EXCLUSIVE INCLUSIVE
IMPETUS FROM MINORTIY GROUP
Particularistic ethnic minority party
Integrationist ethnic minority party
IMPETUS FROM
MAJORITY GROUP
National majority party Accommodative majority
party
35
Table 2: Ethnicity, Citizenship and Ethnic Minority Party Representation for Selected Countries
Country
Total population
Citizens Largest Minority
Size of largest minority
Minorities as % of citizens)
Dominant type of ethnic minority representation
Other ethnic- minorities
Estonia 1,294,4551
1,101,761 1 Russians 321,198 1 ~122
Accommodative majority (Center Party)
Ukra. 1.7%3 Belrus. 1.0 Finns 0.6%
Latvia 2,070,3714
1,728,2134 Russians 557,1194 ~15.5- 185
Integrationist minority (Harmony Center)
Belrus.3.3%4 Ukra. 2.2% Poles 2.2%
Romania 20,121,6416
20,121,641 Magyars 1,227,623 6.5
Ethnic particularistic (Democratic Union of Hungarians in Romania)
Roma 3.3% Ukra. 0.3% Germ. 0.2%
Slovakia 5,397,0367 5,397,036 Magyars 458,467 8.5
Integrationist minority (Most-Hid)
Roma 2.0% Ruthn. 0.6%
1 Statistics Estonia, Population and housing census, “PCE04: Enumerated Permanent Residents by Ethnic Nationality and Sex, 31 December 2011,”; “CE05: “Enumerated Permanent Residents, 31 December 2011 by Citizenship and Sex”, http://www.stat.ee/phc2011, http://pub.stat.ee/px-‐web.2001/Dialog/Saveshow.asp; also http://www.stat.ee/phc2011. 2 According to the census in 2011, 89,913 residents enumerated were citizens of the Russian Federation; 4707 of Ukraine; 1472 of Belaurs; 183 of Azerbaizan; 168 of Armenia; and 158 of Georgia. In addition there were 84, 494 of undetermined nationality and 3116 unknown. While not all of those from the other post-soviet states would be of Russian ethnicity, many likely would be. Likewise, most likely to vast majority of those of undetermined nationality are Russian ethnicity. Excluding those who are citizens of other post-Soviet states besides Russia, but including all of those of undetermined or unknown nationality, the number of Estonia’s 321, 198 Russians who would be included as Estonian citizens would be 143,675, or about 12 per cent of the population. This is an estimate. 3 Statistics Estonia, 2013 4 Central Statistical Bureau of Lativa, Population and Housing Census , 2011, http://www.csb.gov.lv/en/statistikas-‐temas/population-‐census-‐30761.html 5 For Latvia, Matulionis et al (2011) report survey data indicating that 57.6 of Russian respondents have Russian citizenshi According to the 2011 census there are 556,422 residents of Russian ethnicity in 2011 and 2,067,887 citizens. Muznieks (n.d., Table 4) indicates that in 2004 330,201 of Latvia’s 1,805,156 citziens were Russian, citing the Citizenship and Migration Affairs Board. 6 Romanian National Institute of Statistics, http://www.recensamantromania.ro/wp-content/uploads/2013/07/REZULTATE-DEFINITIVE-RPL_2011.pdf 7 Statistics Office of the Slovak Republic, http://portal.statistics.sk/files/table-‐11.pdf
36
Table 3: Electoral systems and ethnic minority populations in Estonia, Latvia, Romania, and Slovakia8
Electoral
system Threshold Number of electoral
districts for PR part of vote
Degree of territorial concentration of the relevant ethnic minority*
Estonia Personalized PR
5% 12 (6 to 13 seats each) High in northeast Estonia Mixed in Tallinn
Latvia List and personalized PR
5% 5 (13-29 seats) High in urban areas (especially Riga and Latgale district)
Romania prior to 2008
PR 5% 1 (nationwide) High in Covasna/Harghita Mixed in northwest Transylvania
Romania after 2008
MMP (includes overhang seats)
5% or 6 seats in lower house or 3 in Senate, 8-10% for alliances; reserved seats for minorities
315-single-member districts (candidates must win 50%+1 votes) 1 (nationwide) for votes in districts where no majority wins
High in Covasna/Harghita counties Mixed in northwest Transylvania
Slovakia PR 5% 1 (nationwide) High in southern Slovakia (especially in Dunajska Streda and Komarno districts)
*national elections only
8 Webpage of the Interparliamentary Union:the Riigikogu (Estonian Parliament), http://www.ipu.org/parline-‐e/reports/2105_b.htm; Saeima (Latvian parliament), http://www.ipu.org/parline-‐e/reports/2177_B.htm; Camera Deputatilor (Romanian Chamber of Deputies), http://www.ipu.org/parline-e/reports/2261_B.htm; Národná rada( Slovak National Council, http://www.ipu.org/parline-‐e/reports/2261_B.htm,, accessed 19 April 2012.
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1 See Table 2.
2 See Table 2
3 Bochsler (2010) notes that in all four countries ‘the electoral geography is closely linked to the ethnic structure of the territory” (817).
4 Boschler and Szlcsik (2013) note areas of similarity and difference between the position of Hungarians in Romania and Slovakia. In particular they note in both countries the small proportion of Hungarians to vote for non-Hungarian parties (431).
5 Ruedin (2009), for example, concludes that cultural factors (for example, attitude toward the minority group) are more important, and that the electoral system as well as quotas are major factors explaining the degree of ethnic representation, although they may have an impact in some cases. Protsyk and Matichescu (2010), and Protsyk and Sachariew (2012) caution that specifics of the proportional representation (PR) system must be taken into careful account when considering their actual impact on minority representation.
41 6 These findings are based on an examination of electoral results provided by the National Electoral Committee (2012). Assessments of whether candidates are Russian relied on name identification, material in the biographical information provided, and web searches of information about the candidates. Ethnicity is not directly indicated in these biographies. The following were taken as indicators of being ethnic Russian: Slavic name (or adapted Slavic name); education received in Russia; a Russian-language web presence (e.g., blog, interviews in Russian). These indicators are not foolproof and are subject to some error.
7 This clause was used at least once, during the 1996 parliamentary election, when the Szekler (Szeklers along with Czangos are related ethnic Magyar groups, making up circa 600,000 and 30,000 out of Romania’s 1,227,000 ethnically Hungarian population) minority candidate was denied his seat despite passing the 10% threshold because Hungarians were already represented by the DUHR (King and Martin 2012, 576).