CONCORDIA MARITIME AB (PUBL) Capital Link London Conference
October 2015
Kim Ullman, CEO
Ola Helgesson, CFO
Vision and business concept
Concordia Maritime is an international shipping company
*Estimates 2014
Founded in 1984 by the Stena Sphere which still owns about 53%
World wide competence
Developed over 100 new buildings
Chartering and commercial
operations of over 100 fartyg
Technical Management of over 130 fartyg
Stena Teknik
Stena Bulk Stena Weco
Stena Sonangol Suezmax Pool
Northern Marine Management
Concordia Maritime
First call on new business: 0, 50 eller 100%
Listing
YTD 2015 + ca 40% (SEK18) Market Cap MSEK 850, MUSD 101
CCOR.SS Founded in 1984 by the Stena Sphere which still owns about 53% Listed on NASDAQ OMX Stockholm
Our fleet – 15 modern and efficient tankers
Light products
Now 15 Ships - A balanced fleet and employment strategy
P-MAX Suezmax IMOIIMAX
Ship and cargo type
Market
Partner
6 ships on nische trade 3 ships on contract
Stena Weco,
2 TC 2 spot = 4 niche pool
Concordia Maritime/ Stena Bulk Pool
Spot - pooling
Stena Sonangol Suezmax Pool
Spot, niche contract and IMOIIMAX pooling
Stena Weco
Heavy products Light products, easy chemicals and vegetable oils
Crude oil
(2 x 50% charter in with Stena Bulk)
P-MAX – everything double
No of vessels 10 Length 183 m Width 40 m DWT 65,200 30% larger loading capacity
+30%
Suezmax – our crude complement
No of vessels 1 (+0,5+0,5) Length 274 m Width 48 m DWT 158,000 10-15% less bunker use
additional positions taken in the segment 2
No of vessels 2 Length 183 m Width 32,3 m DWT 50,000
Newbuilding program – IMO2MAX
Our fleet – 14 modern and efficient tankers
Financials Q2 2015
Q2 & 1H 2015
NB Sale of ships Q2 2014 – EBITDA and EBT MSEK 80
Income per type, spot
No. of vessel
s Average income
CM Average income
spot market*
USD/per day Q2
2015 Q2
2014 6 months
2015 6 months
2014 Q2
2015 Q2
2014
Product tankers 9 21,800 10,700 20,900 13,300 22,000 9,200
Suezmax 1,5 38,800 17,200 41,800 25,200 46,900 16,000
*Clarksons MR Clean
MR´s Torm Scorpio Tankers
Ardmore Shipping
Frontline 2012
DS Norden
D´Amico
Q1-2015 24,275 20,061 18,413 21,200 19,412 18,503
Q2-2015 22,714 22,599 20,472 24,200 22,899 19,533
EBITDA per quarter
USD million Q2
2015 Q1
2015 Q4
2014 Q3
2014 Q2
2014 Q1
2014
P-MAX, time charter 0.9 1.3 0.4 0.4 1.6 2.6
P-MAX, spot 7.5 6.0 4.4 2.2 0.5 3.7
IMOIIMAX 1.3 – – – – –
Panamax – – – – 11.9 1.1
Suezmax 3.2 3.7 1.9 13 0.6 2.1
Admin. and others –1.1 –1.1 –1.4 –1.1 –1.4 –15
Total 11.8 9.9 5.3 2.8 13.2 8.0
EBITDA och EBT 2005 – 2014
-400
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
MSEK
EBITDA EBT
1H 2015 EBITDA 182 EBT 72
Dividend and return 2005 - 2014
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
SEK
Result per share, SEK Dividend per share, SEK Direct return, %
%
Total return 2013: 15% 2014: 10%
83% 92% 76% 50% 60% 56% 0% Dividend in % of earnings after tax
– – –
2005 – 2014 excluding one off costs – dividend has been 63% of earnings after tax
Equity and debt 2005-2014
0
10
20
30
40
50
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
MSEK
Int.bearing.liab, MSEK Other debt, MSEK Equity, MSEK Equity per share, SEK
Per share
31 Dec 2014 NAV/share SEK 26
Equity/share SEK 33 Price/share SEK 13
30 June 2015 NAV/share SEK 31
Equity/share SEK 36 Price per share 18
Share price development versus index 2014–2015
Share price development benchmark – Swedbank 6 October 2015
Market
Tanker market projections
”Other”
Weather
Stock changes
Geo political
Trading pattern
Refinery Changes
Supply growth
Oil Consumption
World GDP
Unknowns/Jokers
Distances
Base
Crude tanker spot rates 2012-2015 (Aug)
USD/Day
0
10 000
20 000
30 000
40 000
50 000
60 000
70 000
2012
-jan
2012
-feb
2012
-mar
2012
-apr
2012
-maj
2012
-jun
2012
-jul
2012
-aug
2012
-sep
2012
-okt
2012
-nov
2012
-dec
2013
-jan
2013
-feb
2013
-mar
2013
-apr
2013
-maj
2013
-jun
2013
-jul
2013
-aug
2013
-sep
2013
-okt
2013
-nov
2013
-dec
2014
-jan
2014
-feb
2014
-mar
2014
-apr
2014
-maj
2014
-jun
2014
-jul
2014
-aug
2014
-sep
2014
-okt
2014
-nov
2014
-dec
2015
-jan
2015
-feb
2015
-mar
2015
-apr
2015
-maj
2015
-jun
2015
-jul
2015
-aug
Average Aframax Long Run Historical Earnings $/Day Average VLCC Long Run Historical Earnings $/Day
Average Suezmax Long Run Historical Earnings $/Day
oversupply
New delayed refineries China +75m barrels Comm. storage Libya returns
European margins tops
European refinary margins Asian Stock building weather Lower bunker cost
-US gasoline demand -New ref. India
Crude tanker spot rates 2007-2015 (Aug)
USD/Day
0
50 000
100 000
150 000
200 000
250 000
2007
-feb
2007
-apr
2007
-jun
2007
-aug
2007
-okt
2007
-dec
2008
-feb
2008
-apr
2008
-jun
2008
-aug
2008
-okt
2008
-dec
2009
-feb
2009
-apr
2009
-jun
2009
-aug
2009
-okt
2009
-dec
2010
-feb
2010
-apr
2010
-jun
2010
-aug
2010
-okt
2010
-dec
2011
-feb
2011
-apr
2011
-jun
2011
-aug
2011
-okt
2011
-dec
2012
-feb
2012
-apr
2012
-jun
2012
-aug
2012
-okt
2012
-dec
2013
-feb
2013
-apr
2013
-jun
2013
-aug
2013
-okt
2013
-dec
2014
-feb
2014
-apr
2014
-jun
2014
-aug
2014
-okt
2014
-dec
2015
-feb
2015
-apr
2015
-jun
2015
-aug
Average Aframax Long Run Historical Earnings $/Day Average VLCC Long Run Historical Earnings $/Day
Average Suezmax Long Run Historical Earnings $/Day
”Not seen since 2008”
Crude tanker spot rates 2000-2015 (Aug)
USD/Day
0
50 000
100 000
150 000
200 000
250 000
2000
-feb
2000
-maj
2000
-aug
2000
-nov
2001
-feb
2001
-maj
2001
-aug
2001
-nov
2002
-feb
2002
-maj
2002
-aug
2002
-nov
2003
-feb
2003
-maj
2003
-aug
2003
-nov
2004
-feb
2004
-maj
2004
-aug
2004
-nov
2005
-feb
2005
-maj
2005
-aug
2005
-nov
2006
-feb
2006
-maj
2006
-aug
2006
-nov
2007
-feb
2007
-maj
2007
-aug
2007
-nov
2008
-feb
2008
-maj
2008
-aug
2008
-nov
2009
-feb
2009
-maj
2009
-aug
2009
-nov
2010
-feb
2010
-maj
2010
-aug
2010
-nov
2011
-feb
2011
-maj
2011
-aug
2011
-nov
2012
-feb
2012
-maj
2012
-aug
2012
-nov
2013
-feb
2013
-maj
2013
-aug
2013
-nov
2014
-feb
2014
-maj
2014
-aug
2014
-nov
2015
-feb
2015
-maj
2015
-aug
Average Aframax Long Run Historical Earnings $/Day Average VLCC Long Run Historical Earnings $/Day
Average Suezmax Long Run Historical Earnings $/Day
Super cycle
2008
Now
0
10 000
20 000
30 000
40 000
50 000
60 000
70 000
Januari February March April May June July August September October November December
Average Suezmax Long Run Historical Earnings $/Day 2014 Average Suezmax Long Run Historical Earnings $/Day 2015
WAF-USAC 2015
Suezmax Earnings 2014 vs 2015 USD/Day
Sept 11th
0
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
25 000
30 000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
YR2014 YR2015 TC2 2015
MR Earnings 2014 vs 2015 USD/Day
Sept 11th
Markets going forward
Growing Product Trade Increasing volumes, distances & triangulation opportunities
Gasoil
Gasoline/UMS
Naphtha
Jet
Freight can act as a deterrent of the arb-sensitive (and therefore freight dependent) trades.
Bears vs Bulls and Wild Cards – NEXT 12 MONTHS Product Tankers | Compared to the past 12 months
Bullish Factors Bearish Factors Wild Cards
Growing exports from MEG/India
Oil prices/Bunkers
Growing import demand in Australia, LAM, West Africa
US crude exports – will it hurt domestic refineries?
Global Economy (e.g. China)
Growing China naphtha imports
End of peak gasoline Q4/Q1 weather – Refinery disruptions
Strong oil demand growth
Lower refinery margins
Government intervention/currency fluctuations affecting demand growth
High freight rates capping arb sensitive trades
Crude NBs taking products west
Low scrapping/slippage
More Russia product exports Dirty ups offsetting LR2
deliveries
Continued influx of products driven by crude oversupply/low prices/high runs
Product tankers
Demand & Supply Summary 2015-2017
*Volume + distance
Crude tankers Growth, % (2014) 2015 2016 2017 (2018)
Demand* 2-3% 3.0 3.0 3.0 ?
Supply 0% 1.7 3.7 3.0 ?
Growth, % (2014) 2015 2016 2017 (2018)
Demand* 2-3% 5.0 5.0 5.0 ?
Supply (net) 6% 5.2 5.2 3.5 ?
Concordia Maritime’s market review and view..
ie, Concordia Maritime has a continued positive view of the product tanker market
Review:
• Good tanker markets in 2015 due low oil prices and very low growth of crude tankers • An expected (and communicated) seasonal dip Aug/Oct but - ”Not as low and not as long”… View going forward: • Specific - Q415/Q116 expected to bounce back to good markets across the board
• General - continued low oil prices will continue to drive world demand
• Geographical and strategic change in refinery situation still at force resulting in longer • haul and cross trade • Order book for product carriers in balance with demand growth
Australian product import development
P-MAX – focus on nisch, Australia/New Zeeland
• Closure of 4 refineries last 5 years • 40-60 MR Imports per month • 30-40 ports (product import)
Newly renewed contract with major oil Co.
• Highest markets in the East
• Cargo cap. Utilization ~90%
• 3 ships on contract to EXM (2 ships till Sep 2016, 1 to March 2016)
• Contract form - consecutive voyage charter – market related
Contract illustration
Contract Market related
P-MAX – focus on nische, West Africa
WAF (Nigeria/Togo/Benin/Ivory Coast)
- Fast growing continent (Africa)
- Very bad/no refineries
- Clean import – ca 50 MR/month
- P-MAX, full cargo (50.000)
- Draft ports in WAF – but STS
- Cargo capacity utilization 95-100%
- Premium earnings to standard MR trade
Stena Image´s first successful 6 voyages
Voy 1 Load ports: 3 ports Indonesia Cargo: 3 diff grades palm oil/coconut oil Discharge ports: 3 ports Spain Voy 2 Load port: 1 port Italy Cargo: Gasoline Discharge port: Gizan (R Sea/Saudi Arabia) Voy 3 Load port: Yanbu (R Sea/Saudi Arabia) Cargo: Chemicals Discharge port: Fujairah (UAE) Voy 4 Load port: Jubail Saudi Arabia Cargo: Gasoline Discharge port: Fujairah Voy 5 Load port: Jebel Ali Saudi Arabia Cargo: Gasoline Discharge port: Fujairah Voy 6 Load port: W.C India Cargo: Jet fuel/Gasoline Discharge: Australia
Concordia Maritime’s next IMOIIMAX will be delivered in October 2015
Focus ahead
Increase TC and CVC to
customers
Continue the high quality in ship operation
Increase the number of
nische trades
Buy/sell ships
Customer claim in relation to
Stena Primorsk
Increase visibility and transparency
Implement IMOIIMAX
To summarize: • 2015 – the market has definitely turned • EBT 1H 2015 72 MSEK • Seasonal low market rates in Q3 – expected improvement Q4 • Important niche trades – Australia, New Zeeland and West Africa • Increased EBIDTA potential in 2015 by
• Niche trades • Better market rates in general • Two additional Suezmax positions • Two new IMO2MAX ships delivered in Q2 and Q4
• Full focus to deliver result/solutions on the challenges
1 Why invest in Concordia Maritime?
Substantial discount to NAV - Share price SEK18 - NAV per share SEK 31 - Equity per share SEK 36
2 Why invest in Concordia Maritime?
Improved EBITDA generation capacity • P-MAX, increased number of niche trades • 2 IMO2MAX • 2 Suezmax (TC)
3 Why invest in Concordia Maritime?
Improved tanker markets • Crude: Stabilized – correcting down - due newbuildings • Products: Still upside – market still growing
4 Why invest in Concordia Maritime?
Stena Image naming ceremony