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CONCORDIA MARITIME AB (PUBL) Capital Link London Conference October 2015
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Page 1: CONCORDIA MARITIME AB (PUBL) · Concordia Maritime is an international shipping company *Estimates 2014 . Founded in 1984 by the Stena Sphere which still owns about 53% . ... (2 ships

CONCORDIA MARITIME AB (PUBL) Capital Link London Conference

October 2015

Page 2: CONCORDIA MARITIME AB (PUBL) · Concordia Maritime is an international shipping company *Estimates 2014 . Founded in 1984 by the Stena Sphere which still owns about 53% . ... (2 ships

Kim Ullman, CEO

Ola Helgesson, CFO

Page 3: CONCORDIA MARITIME AB (PUBL) · Concordia Maritime is an international shipping company *Estimates 2014 . Founded in 1984 by the Stena Sphere which still owns about 53% . ... (2 ships

Vision and business concept

Page 4: CONCORDIA MARITIME AB (PUBL) · Concordia Maritime is an international shipping company *Estimates 2014 . Founded in 1984 by the Stena Sphere which still owns about 53% . ... (2 ships
Page 5: CONCORDIA MARITIME AB (PUBL) · Concordia Maritime is an international shipping company *Estimates 2014 . Founded in 1984 by the Stena Sphere which still owns about 53% . ... (2 ships

Concordia Maritime is an international shipping company

*Estimates 2014

Founded in 1984 by the Stena Sphere which still owns about 53%

Page 6: CONCORDIA MARITIME AB (PUBL) · Concordia Maritime is an international shipping company *Estimates 2014 . Founded in 1984 by the Stena Sphere which still owns about 53% . ... (2 ships

World wide competence

Developed over 100 new buildings

Chartering and commercial

operations of over 100 fartyg

Technical Management of over 130 fartyg

Stena Teknik

Stena Bulk Stena Weco

Stena Sonangol Suezmax Pool

Northern Marine Management

Concordia Maritime

First call on new business: 0, 50 eller 100%

Page 7: CONCORDIA MARITIME AB (PUBL) · Concordia Maritime is an international shipping company *Estimates 2014 . Founded in 1984 by the Stena Sphere which still owns about 53% . ... (2 ships

Listing

YTD 2015 + ca 40% (SEK18) Market Cap MSEK 850, MUSD 101

CCOR.SS Founded in 1984 by the Stena Sphere which still owns about 53% Listed on NASDAQ OMX Stockholm

Page 8: CONCORDIA MARITIME AB (PUBL) · Concordia Maritime is an international shipping company *Estimates 2014 . Founded in 1984 by the Stena Sphere which still owns about 53% . ... (2 ships

Our fleet – 15 modern and efficient tankers

Page 9: CONCORDIA MARITIME AB (PUBL) · Concordia Maritime is an international shipping company *Estimates 2014 . Founded in 1984 by the Stena Sphere which still owns about 53% . ... (2 ships

Light products

Now 15 Ships - A balanced fleet and employment strategy

P-MAX Suezmax IMOIIMAX

Ship and cargo type

Market

Partner

6 ships on nische trade 3 ships on contract

Stena Weco,

2 TC 2 spot = 4 niche pool

Concordia Maritime/ Stena Bulk Pool

Spot - pooling

Stena Sonangol Suezmax Pool

Spot, niche contract and IMOIIMAX pooling

Stena Weco

Heavy products Light products, easy chemicals and vegetable oils

Crude oil

(2 x 50% charter in with Stena Bulk)

Page 10: CONCORDIA MARITIME AB (PUBL) · Concordia Maritime is an international shipping company *Estimates 2014 . Founded in 1984 by the Stena Sphere which still owns about 53% . ... (2 ships

P-MAX – everything double

No of vessels 10 Length 183 m Width 40 m DWT 65,200 30% larger loading capacity

+30%

Page 11: CONCORDIA MARITIME AB (PUBL) · Concordia Maritime is an international shipping company *Estimates 2014 . Founded in 1984 by the Stena Sphere which still owns about 53% . ... (2 ships

Suezmax – our crude complement

No of vessels 1 (+0,5+0,5) Length 274 m Width 48 m DWT 158,000 10-15% less bunker use

additional positions taken in the segment 2

Page 12: CONCORDIA MARITIME AB (PUBL) · Concordia Maritime is an international shipping company *Estimates 2014 . Founded in 1984 by the Stena Sphere which still owns about 53% . ... (2 ships

No of vessels 2 Length 183 m Width 32,3 m DWT 50,000

Newbuilding program – IMO2MAX

Page 13: CONCORDIA MARITIME AB (PUBL) · Concordia Maritime is an international shipping company *Estimates 2014 . Founded in 1984 by the Stena Sphere which still owns about 53% . ... (2 ships

Our fleet – 14 modern and efficient tankers

Financials Q2 2015

Page 14: CONCORDIA MARITIME AB (PUBL) · Concordia Maritime is an international shipping company *Estimates 2014 . Founded in 1984 by the Stena Sphere which still owns about 53% . ... (2 ships

Q2 & 1H 2015

NB Sale of ships Q2 2014 – EBITDA and EBT MSEK 80

Page 15: CONCORDIA MARITIME AB (PUBL) · Concordia Maritime is an international shipping company *Estimates 2014 . Founded in 1984 by the Stena Sphere which still owns about 53% . ... (2 ships

Income per type, spot

No. of vessel

s Average income

CM Average income

spot market*

USD/per day Q2

2015 Q2

2014 6 months

2015 6 months

2014 Q2

2015 Q2

2014

Product tankers 9 21,800 10,700 20,900 13,300 22,000 9,200

Suezmax 1,5 38,800 17,200 41,800 25,200 46,900 16,000

*Clarksons MR Clean

MR´s Torm Scorpio Tankers

Ardmore Shipping

Frontline 2012

DS Norden

D´Amico

Q1-2015 24,275 20,061 18,413 21,200 19,412 18,503

Q2-2015 22,714 22,599 20,472 24,200 22,899 19,533

Page 16: CONCORDIA MARITIME AB (PUBL) · Concordia Maritime is an international shipping company *Estimates 2014 . Founded in 1984 by the Stena Sphere which still owns about 53% . ... (2 ships

EBITDA per quarter

USD million Q2

2015 Q1

2015 Q4

2014 Q3

2014 Q2

2014 Q1

2014

P-MAX, time charter 0.9 1.3 0.4 0.4 1.6 2.6

P-MAX, spot 7.5 6.0 4.4 2.2 0.5 3.7

IMOIIMAX 1.3 – – – – –

Panamax – – – – 11.9 1.1

Suezmax 3.2 3.7 1.9 13 0.6 2.1

Admin. and others –1.1 –1.1 –1.4 –1.1 –1.4 –15

Total 11.8 9.9 5.3 2.8 13.2 8.0

Page 17: CONCORDIA MARITIME AB (PUBL) · Concordia Maritime is an international shipping company *Estimates 2014 . Founded in 1984 by the Stena Sphere which still owns about 53% . ... (2 ships

EBITDA och EBT 2005 – 2014

-400

-300

-200

-100

0

100

200

300

400

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

MSEK

EBITDA EBT

1H 2015 EBITDA 182 EBT 72

Page 18: CONCORDIA MARITIME AB (PUBL) · Concordia Maritime is an international shipping company *Estimates 2014 . Founded in 1984 by the Stena Sphere which still owns about 53% . ... (2 ships

Dividend and return 2005 - 2014

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

SEK

Result per share, SEK Dividend per share, SEK Direct return, %

%

Total return 2013: 15% 2014: 10%

83% 92% 76% 50% 60% 56% 0% Dividend in % of earnings after tax

– – –

2005 – 2014 excluding one off costs – dividend has been 63% of earnings after tax

Page 19: CONCORDIA MARITIME AB (PUBL) · Concordia Maritime is an international shipping company *Estimates 2014 . Founded in 1984 by the Stena Sphere which still owns about 53% . ... (2 ships

Equity and debt 2005-2014

0

10

20

30

40

50

0

1 000

2 000

3 000

4 000

5 000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

MSEK

Int.bearing.liab, MSEK Other debt, MSEK Equity, MSEK Equity per share, SEK

Per share

31 Dec 2014 NAV/share SEK 26

Equity/share SEK 33 Price/share SEK 13

30 June 2015 NAV/share SEK 31

Equity/share SEK 36 Price per share 18

Page 20: CONCORDIA MARITIME AB (PUBL) · Concordia Maritime is an international shipping company *Estimates 2014 . Founded in 1984 by the Stena Sphere which still owns about 53% . ... (2 ships

Share price development versus index 2014–2015

Page 21: CONCORDIA MARITIME AB (PUBL) · Concordia Maritime is an international shipping company *Estimates 2014 . Founded in 1984 by the Stena Sphere which still owns about 53% . ... (2 ships

Share price development benchmark – Swedbank 6 October 2015

Page 22: CONCORDIA MARITIME AB (PUBL) · Concordia Maritime is an international shipping company *Estimates 2014 . Founded in 1984 by the Stena Sphere which still owns about 53% . ... (2 ships

Market

Page 23: CONCORDIA MARITIME AB (PUBL) · Concordia Maritime is an international shipping company *Estimates 2014 . Founded in 1984 by the Stena Sphere which still owns about 53% . ... (2 ships

Tanker market projections

”Other”

Weather

Stock changes

Geo political

Trading pattern

Refinery Changes

Supply growth

Oil Consumption

World GDP

Unknowns/Jokers

Distances

Base

Page 24: CONCORDIA MARITIME AB (PUBL) · Concordia Maritime is an international shipping company *Estimates 2014 . Founded in 1984 by the Stena Sphere which still owns about 53% . ... (2 ships

Crude tanker spot rates 2012-2015 (Aug)

USD/Day

0

10 000

20 000

30 000

40 000

50 000

60 000

70 000

2012

-jan

2012

-feb

2012

-mar

2012

-apr

2012

-maj

2012

-jun

2012

-jul

2012

-aug

2012

-sep

2012

-okt

2012

-nov

2012

-dec

2013

-jan

2013

-feb

2013

-mar

2013

-apr

2013

-maj

2013

-jun

2013

-jul

2013

-aug

2013

-sep

2013

-okt

2013

-nov

2013

-dec

2014

-jan

2014

-feb

2014

-mar

2014

-apr

2014

-maj

2014

-jun

2014

-jul

2014

-aug

2014

-sep

2014

-okt

2014

-nov

2014

-dec

2015

-jan

2015

-feb

2015

-mar

2015

-apr

2015

-maj

2015

-jun

2015

-jul

2015

-aug

Average Aframax Long Run Historical Earnings $/Day Average VLCC Long Run Historical Earnings $/Day

Average Suezmax Long Run Historical Earnings $/Day

oversupply

New delayed refineries China +75m barrels Comm. storage Libya returns

European margins tops

European refinary margins Asian Stock building weather Lower bunker cost

-US gasoline demand -New ref. India

Page 25: CONCORDIA MARITIME AB (PUBL) · Concordia Maritime is an international shipping company *Estimates 2014 . Founded in 1984 by the Stena Sphere which still owns about 53% . ... (2 ships

Crude tanker spot rates 2007-2015 (Aug)

USD/Day

0

50 000

100 000

150 000

200 000

250 000

2007

-feb

2007

-apr

2007

-jun

2007

-aug

2007

-okt

2007

-dec

2008

-feb

2008

-apr

2008

-jun

2008

-aug

2008

-okt

2008

-dec

2009

-feb

2009

-apr

2009

-jun

2009

-aug

2009

-okt

2009

-dec

2010

-feb

2010

-apr

2010

-jun

2010

-aug

2010

-okt

2010

-dec

2011

-feb

2011

-apr

2011

-jun

2011

-aug

2011

-okt

2011

-dec

2012

-feb

2012

-apr

2012

-jun

2012

-aug

2012

-okt

2012

-dec

2013

-feb

2013

-apr

2013

-jun

2013

-aug

2013

-okt

2013

-dec

2014

-feb

2014

-apr

2014

-jun

2014

-aug

2014

-okt

2014

-dec

2015

-feb

2015

-apr

2015

-jun

2015

-aug

Average Aframax Long Run Historical Earnings $/Day Average VLCC Long Run Historical Earnings $/Day

Average Suezmax Long Run Historical Earnings $/Day

”Not seen since 2008”

Page 26: CONCORDIA MARITIME AB (PUBL) · Concordia Maritime is an international shipping company *Estimates 2014 . Founded in 1984 by the Stena Sphere which still owns about 53% . ... (2 ships

Crude tanker spot rates 2000-2015 (Aug)

USD/Day

0

50 000

100 000

150 000

200 000

250 000

2000

-feb

2000

-maj

2000

-aug

2000

-nov

2001

-feb

2001

-maj

2001

-aug

2001

-nov

2002

-feb

2002

-maj

2002

-aug

2002

-nov

2003

-feb

2003

-maj

2003

-aug

2003

-nov

2004

-feb

2004

-maj

2004

-aug

2004

-nov

2005

-feb

2005

-maj

2005

-aug

2005

-nov

2006

-feb

2006

-maj

2006

-aug

2006

-nov

2007

-feb

2007

-maj

2007

-aug

2007

-nov

2008

-feb

2008

-maj

2008

-aug

2008

-nov

2009

-feb

2009

-maj

2009

-aug

2009

-nov

2010

-feb

2010

-maj

2010

-aug

2010

-nov

2011

-feb

2011

-maj

2011

-aug

2011

-nov

2012

-feb

2012

-maj

2012

-aug

2012

-nov

2013

-feb

2013

-maj

2013

-aug

2013

-nov

2014

-feb

2014

-maj

2014

-aug

2014

-nov

2015

-feb

2015

-maj

2015

-aug

Average Aframax Long Run Historical Earnings $/Day Average VLCC Long Run Historical Earnings $/Day

Average Suezmax Long Run Historical Earnings $/Day

Super cycle

2008

Now

Page 27: CONCORDIA MARITIME AB (PUBL) · Concordia Maritime is an international shipping company *Estimates 2014 . Founded in 1984 by the Stena Sphere which still owns about 53% . ... (2 ships

0

10 000

20 000

30 000

40 000

50 000

60 000

70 000

Januari February March April May June July August September October November December

Average Suezmax Long Run Historical Earnings $/Day 2014 Average Suezmax Long Run Historical Earnings $/Day 2015

WAF-USAC 2015

Suezmax Earnings 2014 vs 2015 USD/Day

Sept 11th

Page 28: CONCORDIA MARITIME AB (PUBL) · Concordia Maritime is an international shipping company *Estimates 2014 . Founded in 1984 by the Stena Sphere which still owns about 53% . ... (2 ships

0

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

30 000

Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec

YR2014 YR2015 TC2 2015

MR Earnings 2014 vs 2015 USD/Day

Sept 11th

Page 29: CONCORDIA MARITIME AB (PUBL) · Concordia Maritime is an international shipping company *Estimates 2014 . Founded in 1984 by the Stena Sphere which still owns about 53% . ... (2 ships

Markets going forward

Page 30: CONCORDIA MARITIME AB (PUBL) · Concordia Maritime is an international shipping company *Estimates 2014 . Founded in 1984 by the Stena Sphere which still owns about 53% . ... (2 ships

Growing Product Trade Increasing volumes, distances & triangulation opportunities

Gasoil

Gasoline/UMS

Naphtha

Jet

Freight can act as a deterrent of the arb-sensitive (and therefore freight dependent) trades.

Page 31: CONCORDIA MARITIME AB (PUBL) · Concordia Maritime is an international shipping company *Estimates 2014 . Founded in 1984 by the Stena Sphere which still owns about 53% . ... (2 ships

Bears vs Bulls and Wild Cards – NEXT 12 MONTHS Product Tankers | Compared to the past 12 months

Bullish Factors Bearish Factors Wild Cards

Growing exports from MEG/India

Oil prices/Bunkers

Growing import demand in Australia, LAM, West Africa

US crude exports – will it hurt domestic refineries?

Global Economy (e.g. China)

Growing China naphtha imports

End of peak gasoline Q4/Q1 weather – Refinery disruptions

Strong oil demand growth

Lower refinery margins

Government intervention/currency fluctuations affecting demand growth

High freight rates capping arb sensitive trades

Crude NBs taking products west

Low scrapping/slippage

More Russia product exports Dirty ups offsetting LR2

deliveries

Continued influx of products driven by crude oversupply/low prices/high runs

Page 32: CONCORDIA MARITIME AB (PUBL) · Concordia Maritime is an international shipping company *Estimates 2014 . Founded in 1984 by the Stena Sphere which still owns about 53% . ... (2 ships

Product tankers

Demand & Supply Summary 2015-2017

*Volume + distance

Crude tankers Growth, % (2014) 2015 2016 2017 (2018)

Demand* 2-3% 3.0 3.0 3.0 ?

Supply 0% 1.7 3.7 3.0 ?

Growth, % (2014) 2015 2016 2017 (2018)

Demand* 2-3% 5.0 5.0 5.0 ?

Supply (net) 6% 5.2 5.2 3.5 ?

Page 33: CONCORDIA MARITIME AB (PUBL) · Concordia Maritime is an international shipping company *Estimates 2014 . Founded in 1984 by the Stena Sphere which still owns about 53% . ... (2 ships

Concordia Maritime’s market review and view..

ie, Concordia Maritime has a continued positive view of the product tanker market

Review:

• Good tanker markets in 2015 due low oil prices and very low growth of crude tankers • An expected (and communicated) seasonal dip Aug/Oct but - ”Not as low and not as long”… View going forward: • Specific - Q415/Q116 expected to bounce back to good markets across the board

• General - continued low oil prices will continue to drive world demand

• Geographical and strategic change in refinery situation still at force resulting in longer • haul and cross trade • Order book for product carriers in balance with demand growth

Page 34: CONCORDIA MARITIME AB (PUBL) · Concordia Maritime is an international shipping company *Estimates 2014 . Founded in 1984 by the Stena Sphere which still owns about 53% . ... (2 ships

Australian product import development

Page 35: CONCORDIA MARITIME AB (PUBL) · Concordia Maritime is an international shipping company *Estimates 2014 . Founded in 1984 by the Stena Sphere which still owns about 53% . ... (2 ships

P-MAX – focus on nisch, Australia/New Zeeland

• Closure of 4 refineries last 5 years • 40-60 MR Imports per month • 30-40 ports (product import)

Newly renewed contract with major oil Co.

• Highest markets in the East

• Cargo cap. Utilization ~90%

• 3 ships on contract to EXM (2 ships till Sep 2016, 1 to March 2016)

• Contract form - consecutive voyage charter – market related

Page 36: CONCORDIA MARITIME AB (PUBL) · Concordia Maritime is an international shipping company *Estimates 2014 . Founded in 1984 by the Stena Sphere which still owns about 53% . ... (2 ships

Contract illustration

Contract Market related

Page 37: CONCORDIA MARITIME AB (PUBL) · Concordia Maritime is an international shipping company *Estimates 2014 . Founded in 1984 by the Stena Sphere which still owns about 53% . ... (2 ships

P-MAX – focus on nische, West Africa

WAF (Nigeria/Togo/Benin/Ivory Coast)

- Fast growing continent (Africa)

- Very bad/no refineries

- Clean import – ca 50 MR/month

- P-MAX, full cargo (50.000)

- Draft ports in WAF – but STS

- Cargo capacity utilization 95-100%

- Premium earnings to standard MR trade

Page 38: CONCORDIA MARITIME AB (PUBL) · Concordia Maritime is an international shipping company *Estimates 2014 . Founded in 1984 by the Stena Sphere which still owns about 53% . ... (2 ships

Stena Image´s first successful 6 voyages

Voy 1 Load ports: 3 ports Indonesia Cargo: 3 diff grades palm oil/coconut oil Discharge ports: 3 ports Spain Voy 2 Load port: 1 port Italy Cargo: Gasoline Discharge port: Gizan (R Sea/Saudi Arabia) Voy 3 Load port: Yanbu (R Sea/Saudi Arabia) Cargo: Chemicals Discharge port: Fujairah (UAE) Voy 4 Load port: Jubail Saudi Arabia Cargo: Gasoline Discharge port: Fujairah Voy 5 Load port: Jebel Ali Saudi Arabia Cargo: Gasoline Discharge port: Fujairah Voy 6 Load port: W.C India Cargo: Jet fuel/Gasoline Discharge: Australia

Concordia Maritime’s next IMOIIMAX will be delivered in October 2015

Page 39: CONCORDIA MARITIME AB (PUBL) · Concordia Maritime is an international shipping company *Estimates 2014 . Founded in 1984 by the Stena Sphere which still owns about 53% . ... (2 ships

Focus ahead

Increase TC and CVC to

customers

Continue the high quality in ship operation

Increase the number of

nische trades

Buy/sell ships

Customer claim in relation to

Stena Primorsk

Increase visibility and transparency

Implement IMOIIMAX

Page 40: CONCORDIA MARITIME AB (PUBL) · Concordia Maritime is an international shipping company *Estimates 2014 . Founded in 1984 by the Stena Sphere which still owns about 53% . ... (2 ships

To summarize: • 2015 – the market has definitely turned • EBT 1H 2015 72 MSEK • Seasonal low market rates in Q3 – expected improvement Q4 • Important niche trades – Australia, New Zeeland and West Africa • Increased EBIDTA potential in 2015 by

• Niche trades • Better market rates in general • Two additional Suezmax positions • Two new IMO2MAX ships delivered in Q2 and Q4

• Full focus to deliver result/solutions on the challenges

Page 41: CONCORDIA MARITIME AB (PUBL) · Concordia Maritime is an international shipping company *Estimates 2014 . Founded in 1984 by the Stena Sphere which still owns about 53% . ... (2 ships

1 Why invest in Concordia Maritime?

Substantial discount to NAV - Share price SEK18 - NAV per share SEK 31 - Equity per share SEK 36

Page 42: CONCORDIA MARITIME AB (PUBL) · Concordia Maritime is an international shipping company *Estimates 2014 . Founded in 1984 by the Stena Sphere which still owns about 53% . ... (2 ships

2 Why invest in Concordia Maritime?

Improved EBITDA generation capacity • P-MAX, increased number of niche trades • 2 IMO2MAX • 2 Suezmax (TC)

Page 43: CONCORDIA MARITIME AB (PUBL) · Concordia Maritime is an international shipping company *Estimates 2014 . Founded in 1984 by the Stena Sphere which still owns about 53% . ... (2 ships

3 Why invest in Concordia Maritime?

Improved tanker markets • Crude: Stabilized – correcting down - due newbuildings • Products: Still upside – market still growing

Page 44: CONCORDIA MARITIME AB (PUBL) · Concordia Maritime is an international shipping company *Estimates 2014 . Founded in 1984 by the Stena Sphere which still owns about 53% . ... (2 ships

4 Why invest in Concordia Maritime?

Page 45: CONCORDIA MARITIME AB (PUBL) · Concordia Maritime is an international shipping company *Estimates 2014 . Founded in 1984 by the Stena Sphere which still owns about 53% . ... (2 ships

Stena Image naming ceremony


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