+ All Categories
Home > Documents > CONDO€¦ · Eastside, Downtown, North Vancouver, South Surrey and Richmond neighbourhoods. With...

CONDO€¦ · Eastside, Downtown, North Vancouver, South Surrey and Richmond neighbourhoods. With...

Date post: 23-Sep-2020
Category:
Upload: others
View: 0 times
Download: 0 times
Share this document with a friend
12
Q2 UNIT SALES 18 -41.90% INVENTORY AT MONTH END 681 18% AVE. DAYS ON MARKET 89 67.80% DETACHED CONDO UNIT SALES 6 -60.00% HPI (combined total) $1,034,500 -18.27% INVENTORY AT MONTH END 201 18% AVE. DAYS ON MARKET 74 413.90% WEST VAN Q2 2019 WEST VAN Q2 2019 VS Q2 2018 HPI (combined total) $2,564,600 -12.90%
Transcript
Page 1: CONDO€¦ · Eastside, Downtown, North Vancouver, South Surrey and Richmond neighbourhoods. With more coming soon. Pent-up demand exploding at low-end of market The result is a booming

Q2 UNIT SALES

18 -41.90%INVENTORY AT MONTH END

681 18%AVE. DAYS ON MARKET

89 67.80%

DETACHED

CONDOUNIT SALES

6 -60.00%

HPI (combined total)

$1,034,500 -18.27%

INVENTORY AT MONTH END

201 18%

HPI HPI (combined total)(combined total)

AVE. DAYS ON MARKET

74 413.90%

WES

T V

AN

Q2 2019WEST VAN

Q2 2019 VS Q2 2018

HPI (combined total)

$2,564,600 -12.90%

Page 2: CONDO€¦ · Eastside, Downtown, North Vancouver, South Surrey and Richmond neighbourhoods. With more coming soon. Pent-up demand exploding at low-end of market The result is a booming

PAGE 2Faith’s Exclusive North Vancouver Analysis

The second quarter (Q2) of 2019, two years into a sustained and unprecedented attempt by governments to curtail home buying across Metro Vancouver,

reveals the incredible pressure for home buying that has fi nally exploded in a certain sector of the market.

Home buyers are powerless, at least for now, against the foreign-home buyer tax, which is the highest in the world. They must deal with an unfair and misnamed speculation tax, the empty homes tax, the super-sized school tax and the mortgage stress test, all policies designed specifi cally to stop them from purchasing the home they want.

Government policies have stripped $89 billion of equity from Metro Vancouver home owners in the past year alone and stopped the dream of homeownership for thousands of people, from fi rst-time buyers to down-sizing seniors and virtually every one in between.

Yet the pent-up demand for a home remains undaunted and increasing as thousands of people stream into Metro Vancouver from across Canada and around the world.

The evidence is seen in the action at the lower-price points in every neighbourhood from the Fraser Valley to the Georgia Strait.

Buyers are working with the one tool left available to them: what they will pay for a home after dealing with the runaway taxes and regulatory barriers thrown in front of the them.

The information included in this report is based on residential sales data and statistcal information sourced and compiled from the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver’s MLXchange database and the REALTOR Link® website. The information is current as of April 1st, 2019 and is subject to change by the REBGV. Faith Wilson Realty Group Inc., makes no guarantees as to the accuracy of the information provided and is not responsible for changes, errors or omissions to this information.

Discover YOUR neighbourhood's real estate market activity,

trends & benchmark pricing.

Finding the right home in the right neighbourhood can be a challenge. That is why we have our exclusive Neighbourhood Profi les available for you on our web site. Each profi le features: • Information on the neighbourhood's

schools, housing, recreation, shopping, restaurants, transportation and more.

• A summary of CURRENT active listings, arranged by property type and showing the number of units available and the median asking price.

• Up-to-date MLS® HPI Benchmark prices AND price changes from one month to fi ve years - a rich resource to instantly see the price trend of the type of home you are interested in, within your specifi c neighbourhood.

To do so, visit FaithWilsonGroup.com and fi nd out about Vancouver Westside, Eastside, Downtown, North Vancouver, South Surrey and Richmond neighbourhoods. With more coming soon.

Pent-up demand exploding at low-end of marketThe result is a booming market for homes priced below the current benchmarks.

In Surrey and Delta during Q2 714 detached houses sold for $1.2 million or less. In the Richmond and East Vancouver, the sales ratio for houses priced up to $1.2 million is higher than 80%. On the Westside of Vancouver, the sales ratio hit 85% for every house listed at $2.25 million or below. In West Vancouver, 63% of the detached houses listed between $3 million and $3.25 million sold in Q2 and 80% of the sellers who offered their house at up to $2.25 million quickly found buyers.

Similar sales performance is seen in the condominium market and the amazingly resilient townhouse sector.

Not every home can or should be priced below the benchmark price in their community, but the recovery must begin somewhere and the booming sales in lower-cost properties is evidence that it is already underway.

Warmest Reguards,

Page 3: CONDO€¦ · Eastside, Downtown, North Vancouver, South Surrey and Richmond neighbourhoods. With more coming soon. Pent-up demand exploding at low-end of market The result is a booming

PAGE 3Faith’s Exclusive North Vancouver Analysis

Stress Test Need Not Stall Move-Up Plans

Whether you intend to generate regular rental income or invest in a longer-term real estate opportunity, there are many things to consider when purchasing an investment property. This type of transaction can be one of the following:• Acquiring a rental portfolio of one or more

properties to build income and equity

• Purchasing a property for your child to live in

• Converting your current home to a rental property and purchasing another property to move into

Most lenders have specifi c lending programs that can help you purchase a residential investment property. Getting advice and ultimately pre-approved from a mortgage specialist is where you want to start. Qualifying for fi nancing for an investment property purchase is different than qualifying to purchase your primary residence. To qualify for an investment property mortgage, you must have a good credit history, demonstrate suffi cient rental income (either through existing tenancy documentation or an opinion of market rent), and have enough non-rental income to meet the obligations of the mortgage. Your lender will ask for your most recent Notice of Assessment and current lease agreements and/or an opinion of market rent of the property that will be fi nanced for investment purposes. Additional documentation may be required based on the structure of the application.

Crunch the Numbers Purchasing a property to rent or turning your home into a rental property could be a good fi nancial move for you for several reasons:• You’ll generate regular rental income while

continuing to pay down debt and earn equity in your home.

• You’ll diversify your investments, which may reduce your overall risk.

• You could potentially see an increase in the value of your home (capital appreciation).

• Do some calculations to estimate your monthly cash fl ow if you choose to rent out your house. Keep in mind that you may not generate a positive cash fl ow right away, but you may be able to achieve this through renovations, rent and capital appreciation

Analyze Market Trends You may want to contact a local real estate professional for help gathering and assessing relevant data for your property and the location, including vacancy rates and the fair market value of your property. Knowing that a property and neighborhood is expected to appreciate in value in the short and/or long term is valuable information that will likely infl uence your decision.

Engage Professionals for Advice and Support A real estate agent or property manager can help you screen potential renters, run background checks, set rental rates, etc. You may also want to engage an accountant or lawyer to prepare any legal and tax documents, draft tenant leases, assist with other administrative duties or paperwork, and provide advice and support.

Your Potential Risk and Costs • Are you prepared to cover two mortgages in

the event your rental property sits vacant for any length of time?

• How much can you charge for monthly rent? Would the rent be able to cover expenses of the investment property (maintenance, utilities, mortgage, etc)?

• What are the tax/capital gains implications of renting out your home?

• What are the likely repairs and costs of turning your home into a rental property and can you cover those expenses?

Be Aware of the Time Commitment Are you ready to be a landlord and take on all the responsibilities that come with owning a rental property? Managing tenants can be easy or require a lot of time, but going thorough tenant searches can help you avoid renting to less than ideal tenants. Your time could also be consumed with ongoing maintenance and repairs. If you don’t have the time or interest in managing the property, tenants and maintenance needs, consider hiring a professional property management company. It’s an added expense for you, but could be money well spent.

Understand Local Property Laws Every Canadian province has its own set of landlord-tenant laws. Rental leases, deposits, tenant rights and rules for eviction vary from one province to another. You may want to go online and research the specifi c laws for your location or reach out to your real estate agent to see if they can put you in touch with a qualifi ed legal expert.

To learn more, check out the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation website at, https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/en/co/reho/index.cfm, for a wealth of valuable information and resources for renters, landlords, etc.

Kevin LutzRBC Regional Manager, Residential Mortgages

Follow Kevin on Twitter @RBCKevinLutz

Purchasing and Financing an Investment Property

Kathy Wu Nikki Voutsilakos

Mortgage SpecialistRBC Royal Bank

[email protected]

Mortgage SpecialistRBC Royal [email protected]

Kathy Wu

Mortgage SpecialistRBC Royal Bank

[email protected]

Welcome our newMortgage Specialists

Nikki Voutsilakos

Mortgage SpecialistRBC Royal [email protected]

Page 4: CONDO€¦ · Eastside, Downtown, North Vancouver, South Surrey and Richmond neighbourhoods. With more coming soon. Pent-up demand exploding at low-end of market The result is a booming

PAGE 4Faith’s Exclusive North Vancouver Analysis

THE REAL NEIGHBOURHOOD RESULTS: APR 2019

SALES AND BENCHMARKPRICES BY NEIGHBOURHOOD

BENCHMARK PRICE CHANGE (%)

Price Segment ($) New Listings Added Unit Sales

0 – 2,000,000 22 8 36%

2,000,001 – 2,250,000 9 1 11%

2,250,001 – 2,500,000 19 2 11%

2,500,001 – 2,750,000 16 1 6%

2,750,001 – 3,000,000 26 1 4%

3,000,001 – 3,250,000 5 2 40%

3,250,001 – 3,500,000 6 3 50%

3,500,001 – 3,750,000 5 0 0%

3,750,001 – 4,000,000 12 1 8%

4,000,001 – 4,500,000 12 1 8%

4,500,001 – 5,000,000 10 0 0%

5,000,001 – 6,000,000 12 4 33%

6,000,001 – 7,000,000 7 2 29%

7,000,001 – 8,000,000 5 2 40%

8,000,000 – 10,000,000 8 0 0%

10,000,001+ 14 0 0%

Totals 188 28 15%

LISTING AND SALES ACTIVITY BY PRICE SEGMENT

THE REAL WEST VAN RESULTS: APR 2019

FAITH’S KEY INSIGHTS: ■ In April, 188 new listings for detached houses were added in West Vancouver – the highest for any month this year – with only 28 sales, the lowest since January. The benchmark price for a West Vancouver house has been declining for three years.

■ In April, 22 of the new detached house listings were under $2 million, which in itself is remarkable. Yet, in some neighbourhoods, April sale prices were higher than in March, increasing 2.5% in British Properties where 7 buyers paid a benchmark of $2.82 million; and in Dundarave, where 4 buyers paid $2.84 million, a price up 1.7% from a month earlier. This may not be the bottom of the West Vancouver housing market, but we can see if from here.

■ The data suggests that bargain hunters, whether domestic or foreign, are wise to be scouting West Vancouver right now. We believe, that with prices stabilizing and a high inventory, this spring provides an historical opportunity for house buyers.

Sales-to-New-Listings Ratio

January 17 23 35.3%February 22 28 27.3%March 28 34 21.4%April 38 36 -5.3%May June Total 84 113 34.5%

2018 2019 CHANGEUNIT SALES (BY MONTH)

SALES PRICE QUARTERLY TREND

Days

JAN FEB MAR APR

JAN FEB MAR APR

DAYS ON MARKET QUARTERLY TREND

– Me

dian S

ales P

rice

– Av

erage

Sales

Price

– Me

dian D

ays o

n Mark

et –

Avera

ge Da

ys on

Mark

et

$1,500,000

$2,000,000

$2,500,000

$3,000,000

$3,500,000

$4,000,000

$2,410,000

$2,012,500

$2,805,000

$3,149,000$2,966,687

$2,342,777

$3,571,506 $3,553,110

20

30

40

50

60

7080

90

64

40

54

45

84

6973 71

APRIL- SINGLE FAMILY DETACHED HOMES

MLS® Neighbourhood Unit Sales HPI Benchmark Price 3 Months 1 Year

Altamont 2 $3,233,800 1.94 -2.26

Ambleside 0 $2,104,200 1.22 -0.70

Bayridge 1 $2,199,800 -7.63 -4.57

British Properties 7 $2,822,200 2.55 -0.07

Canterbury WV 0 $4,053,200 1.45 -1.16

Caulfeild 2 $2,367,300 -4.28 -2.78

Cedardale 0 $1,812,000 3.73 0.69

Chartwell 3 $3,534,300 1.84 0.61

Cypress 0 $2,622,100 -0.85 -5.94

Cypress Park Estates 1 $2,602,700 3.66 3.41

Dundarave 4 $2,824,400 1.76 -1.34

Eagle Harbour 3 $1,766,800 -3.87 -5.04

Eagleridge 0 $2,507,300 -9.02 -6.67

Gleneagles 1 $2,356,300 -5.47 -6.76

Glenmore 1 $1,983,500 3.55 0.97

Horseshoe Bay WV 2 $1,578,300 -2.02 -4.60

Howe Sound 0 $2,839,300 -8.83 -10.75

Lions Bay 0 $1,474,900 -2.94 -5.58

Queens 0 $2,919,900 0.26 -2.37

Sentinel Hill 0 $2,077,100 3.65 -1.81

Upper Caulfeild 0 $2,581,400 -4.79 -4.94

West Bay 0 $3,284,500 -4.74 -4.49

Westhill 0 $3,604,800 2.46 -0.43

Westmount WV 0 $3,268,500 -6.01 -2.99

Whitby Estates 0 $5,013,000 2.16 0.82

Whytecliff 0 $2,035,700 -6.67 -4.21

West Vancouver 28 $2,574,100 -0.37 -1.86

Page 5: CONDO€¦ · Eastside, Downtown, North Vancouver, South Surrey and Richmond neighbourhoods. With more coming soon. Pent-up demand exploding at low-end of market The result is a booming

PAGE 5Faith’s Exclusive North Vancouver Analysis

THE REAL NEIGHBOURHOOD RESULTS: MAY 2019

SALES AND BENCHMARKPRICES BY NEIGHBOURHOOD

BENCHMARK PRICE CHANGE (%)

Price Segment ($) New Listings Added Unit Sales

0 – 2,000,000 26 9 35%

2,000,001 – 2,250,000 9 5 56%

2,250,001 – 2,500,000 22 3 14%

2,500,001 – 2,750,000 7 4 57%

2,750,001 – 3,000,000 19 4 21%

3,000,001 – 3,250,000 4 2 50%

3,250,001 – 3,500,000 11 3 27%

3,500,001 – 3,750,000 2 2 100%

3,750,001 – 4,000,000 12 0 0%

4,000,001 – 4,500,000 4 1 35%

4,500,001 – 5,000,000 11 0 0%

5,000,001 – 6,000,000 9 1 11%

6,000,001 – 7,000,000 7 1 14%

7,000,001 – 8,000,000 7 1 14%

8,000,000 – 10,000,000 10 0 0%

10,000,001+ 2 0 0%

Totals 162 36 22%

LISTING AND SALES ACTIVITY BY PRICE SEGMENT

THE REAL WEST VAN RESULTS: MAY 2019

FAITH’S KEY INSIGHTS: ■ As befi ts a community that appears the direct target of provincial government measures to suppress housing demand, West Vancouver has seen the largest drop in detached house prices and some of the lowest sales of any municipality in Metro Vancouver this year. But policy makers perhaps failed to measure the resiliency of Canada’s wealthiest municipality. People aspire to live and remain in West Vancouver and that demand will eventually roll over the barriers erected to stop them.We saw the signs of this in May as more traffi c was seen at open houses that had been eerily quiet through most of this year. However, detached sales were down 12% from May 2018 but the highest for any month this year.

■ The benchmark price of a West Vancouver detached house in May was down 14.5% from May 2018 to $2.97 million, still the highest in the Metro region. Of the 162 new listings in May, 26 houses were listed at $2 million or less, which accounted for 9 sales, but there were sales in every price range up to $8 million. With the recent lowering of fi ve-year mortgage rates, the tentative return of foreign buyers and the unarguable value now being experienced in West Vancouver’s detached housing market, this exclusive and inclusive community is poised for a sales recovery quicker than most would believe.

Sales-to-New-Listings Ratio

January 17 23 35.3%February 22 28 27.3%March 28 34 21.4%April 38 36 -5.3%May 41 36 -12.2%June Total 157 146 7.5%

2018 2019 CHANGEUNIT SALES (BY MONTH)

– Me

dian S

ales P

rice

– Av

erage

Sales

Price

– Me

dian D

ays o

n Mark

et –

Avera

ge Da

ys on

Mark

et

SALES PRICE QUARTERLY TREND

DAYS ON MARKET QUARTERLY TREND

Days

$1,500,000

$2,000,000

$2,500,000

$3,000,000

$3,500,000

$4,000,000

20

30

40

50

60

7080

90

JAN FEB MAR APR MAY

JAN FEB MAR APR MAY

$2,410,000

$2,012,500

$2,805,000$2,574,286 $2,635,000

$2,966,687

$2,342,777

$3,571,506

$3,252,601

$2,892,044

64

40

54

39

23

84

6973

65

43

MAY- SINGLE FAMILY DETACHED HOMES

MLS® Neighbourhood Unit Sales HPI Benchmark Price 3 Months 1 Year

Altamont 0 $ 2,994,700 -7.40 -7.11

Ambleside 7 $ 2,040,400 -3.11 -3.99

Bayridge 0 $ 2,151,400 -2.20 -7.38

British Properties 6 $ 2,740,600 -3.06 -2.33

Canterbury WV 0 $ 3,893,100 -3.95 -4.57

Caulfeild 2 $ 2,349,300 -0.76 -4.35

Cedardale 1 $ 1,763,300 -5.56 -1.06

Chartwell 0 $ 3,411,700 -3.54 -3.32

Cypress 0 $ 2,485,200 -5.22 -8.52

Cypress Park Estates 1 $ 2,276,700 -4.89 -7.16

Dundarave 5 $ 2,716,500 -3.86 -4.06

Eagle Harbour 1 $ 1,745,000 -1.37 -5.74

Eagleridge 0 $2,507,300 -9.02 -6.67

Gleneagles 1 $ 2,382,600 0.08 -6.28

Glenmore 1 $ 1,967,400 -0.81 2.13

Horseshoe Bay WV 1 $ 1,583,100 -3.74 -5.34

Howe Sound 1 $ 2,976,000 4.82 -3.91

Lions Bay 1 $ 1,477,100 0.15 -4.77

Queens 2 $ 2,823,700 -3.29 -5.59

Sentinel Hill 0 $ 2,065,400 -0.52 -0.28

Upper Caulfeild 0 $ 2,568,300 -0.51 -6.66

West Bay 0 $ 3,275,500 -0.27 -6.66

Westhill 0 $ 3,485,600 -3.30 -2.88

Westmount WV 2 $ 3,307,100 0.83 -1.65

Whitby Estates 0 $ 4,854,000 -3.17 -4.45

Whytecliff 1 $ 2,012,700 -1.13 -7.83

West Vancouver 33 $ 2,518,000 -2.42 -3.77

Page 6: CONDO€¦ · Eastside, Downtown, North Vancouver, South Surrey and Richmond neighbourhoods. With more coming soon. Pent-up demand exploding at low-end of market The result is a booming

PAGE 6Faith’s Exclusive North Vancouver Analysis

THE REAL NEIGHBOURHOOD RESULTS: JUN 2019

SALES AND BENCHMARKPRICES BY NEIGHBOURHOOD

BENCHMARK PRICE CHANGE (%)

LISTING AND SALES ACTIVITY BY PRICE SEGMENT

THE REAL WEST VAN RESULTS: JUN 2019

FAITH’S KEY INSIGHTS: ■ You have to give West Vancouver sellers of detached houses an A for effort. In June, the majority of new listings in the prestigious community, where the median price of a detached house is $2.7 million, were for houses priced at $2 million or less, with 19 offerings. However, only 3 of these listing sold in the month, a sales-to-new-listing ratio of 16%. Twice as many West Vancouver houses sold for between $3 million and $5 million, for a sales-to-new-listing ratio of 20%. The highest sales ratio for June was for the 7 houses priced from $6 million to $7 million, with 29% of new listings selling.

■ The message is that West Vancouver is not and never will be a community for low-cost real estate. There are plenty of other communities offering that during a month when Metro Vancouver detached sales fell to a near 20-year low. Where the true bargains are appearing in West Vancouver is in houses priced at $3 million or more, with some prices reduced to well below the replacement value. In Westmount for instance, a buyer paid $3.2 million for a house in June after Westmount benchmark prices fell 10.4% from a year earlier. That is a cash reduction of $330,000 and the type of value that sophisticated buyers are looking for.

January 17 23 35.3%February 22 28 27.3%March 28 33 17.9%April 38 35 -7.3%May 41 51 24.4%June 31 18 -41.9%Total 177 188 6.2%

2018 2019 CHANGEUNIT SALES (BY MONTH)

SALES PRICE MONTHLY TREND

– Me

dian S

ales P

rice

– Av

erage

Sales

Price

JAN FEB

Days

– Me

dian D

ays o

n Mark

et –

Avera

ge Da

ys on

Mark

etDAYS ON MARKET MONTHLY TREND

JAN FEB

MAR

MAR

APR

APR

MAY

MAY

JUN

JUN

$1,500,000

$2,000,000

$2,500,000

$3,000,000

$3,500,000

$4,000,000

$2,410,000

$2,012,500

$2,760,000$2,520,000 $2,600,000

$3,010,500$2,966,687

$2,342,777

$3,493,370

$3,188,822$2,917,009

$3,333,471

20

30

40

50

60

7080

90

64

40

54

42

28

59

84

6973

65

47

89

JUNE- SINGLE FAMILY DETACHED HOMES

MLS® Neighbourhood Unit Sales HPI Benchmark Price 3 Months 1 Year

Altamont 1 $ 3,071,100 2.55 -3.19

Ambleside 8 $ 2,103,400 3.08 1.18

Bayridge 0 $ 2,192,400 1.90 -7.94

British Properties 1 $ 2,832,800 3.36 2.93

Canterbury WV 0 $ 3,998,700 2.71 0.09

Caulfeild 0 $ 2,355,700 0.27 -4.75

Cedardale 0 $ 1,860,600 5.52 6.51

Chartwell 1 $ 3,519,700 3.16 1.42

Cypress 1 $ 2,528,800 1.75 -4.38

Cypress Park Estates 0 $ 2,382,700 4.65 -5.10

Dundarave 2 $ 2,805,800 3.29 1.09

Eagle Harbour 1 $ 1,711,600 -1.92 -6.87

Gleneagles 0 $ 2,344,100 -1.61 -5.96

Glenmore 0 $ 2,000,300 1.67 4.43

Horseshoe Bay WV 0 $ 1,570,000 - 0.83 -2.53

Howe Sound 0 $ 3,007,100 1.04 -3.44

Lions Bay 0 $ 1,476,400 0.15 -2.84

Queens 0 $ 2,908,500 - 0.05 -0.13

Sentinel Hill 0 $ 2,123,600 3.00 5.97

Upper Caulfeild 1 $ 2,524,700 -1.70 -6.88

West Bay 0 $ 3,215,600 -1.83 -6.74

Westhill 0 $ 3,566,500 2.32 1.37

Westmount WV 1 $ 3,232,400 -2.26 -7.04

Whitby Estates 1 $ 4,782,700 -1.47 -2.53

Whytecliff 0 $ 1,994,900 -0.89 -8.54

West Vancouver 18 $ 2,564,600 1.85 -0.74

Price Segment ($) New Listings Added Unit SalesSales-to-New-Listings Ratio

0 – 2,000,000 19 3 16%

2,000,001 – 2,250,000 8 3 38%

2,250,001 – 2,500,000 9 0 0%

2,500,001 – 2,750,000 6 1 17%

2,750,001 – 3,000,000 11 2 18%

3,000,001 – 3,250,000 0 1 0%

3,250,001 – 3,500,000 6 2 33%

3,500,001 – 3,750,000 8 2 25%

3,750,001 – 4,000,000 10 0 0%

4,000,001 – 4,500,000 8 1 13%

4,500,001 – 5,000,000 8 0 0%

5,000,001 – 6,000,000 10 1 10%

6,000,001 – 7,000,000 7 2 29%

7,000,001 – 8,000,000 4 0 0%

8,000,000 – 10,000,000 5 0 0%

10,000,001+ 6 0 0%

Totals 125 18 14%

Page 7: CONDO€¦ · Eastside, Downtown, North Vancouver, South Surrey and Richmond neighbourhoods. With more coming soon. Pent-up demand exploding at low-end of market The result is a booming

PAGE 7Faith’s Exclusive North Vancouver Analysis

FAITH’S KEY INSIGHTS: ■ The West Vancouver detached housing market is improving but the signs are subtle and probably not too apparent to the 476 owners who listed their house for sale in the second quarter (Q2). These sellers realized a sales-to-new-listing ratio of 22%, clearly a buyer’s market. But the 104 sales in Q2 were up from 84 during Q1 and benchmark prices in the most active neighbourhoods were higher than in Q1, despite a near 13% decline in overall West Vancouver detached house prices from a year earlier. In Ambleside, the British Properties and Dundarave, which together accounted for nearly half the Q2 sales, detached house prices were up 1.5% to 3% from three months earlier, reversing a year-long price slide.

■ Buyers looking for high-end discounts may be circling two West Vancouver neighbourhoods where the benchmark price is down 20% or more from a year ago. These are Whitby Estates, where detached prices were 22.4% lower in Q2 than in Q2 2018, at $4.7 million; and Cypress Park Estates in the lower British Properties, where house prices are 23.6% lower, at $2.3 million. The 20% reduction is telling, because this equals both the foreign home-buyer tax and the typical downpayment, which implies some sellers could already be underwater. We expect more bargain-hunting buyers, including some from protest-plagued Hong Kong, to be shopping in West Vancouver this summer.

THE REAL NEIGHBOURHOOD RESULTS: Q2 2019

SALES AND BENCHMARKPRICES BY NEIGHBOURHOOD

BENCHMARK PRICE CHANGE (%)

Price Segment ($) New Listings Added Unit Sales

0 – 2,000,000 70 28 40%

2,000,001 – 2,250,000 26 10 38%

2,250,001 – 2,500,000 48 9 19%

2,500,001 – 2,750,000 30 10 33%

2,750,001 – 3,000,000 58 7 12%

3,000,001 – 3,250,000 8 5 63%

3,250,001 – 3,500,000 25 9 36%

3,500,001 – 3,750,000 14 5 36%

3,750,001 – 4,000,000 35 2 6%

4,000,001 – 4,500,000 20 3 15%

4,500,001 – 5,000,000 30 0 0%

5,000,001 – 6,000,000 30 6 20%

6,000,001 – 7,000,000 21 7 33%

7,000,001 – 8,000,000 16 3 19%

8,000,000 – 10,000,000 23 0 0%

10,000,001+ 22 0 0%

Totals 476 104 22%

LISTING AND SALES ACTIVITY BY PRICE SEGMENT

THE REAL WEST VAN RESULTS: Q2 2019

Sales-to-New-Listings Ratio

DAYS ON MARKET QUARTERLY TREND

SALES PRICE QUARTERLY TREND

Days

Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2018 Q1 2019 Q2 2019

Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2018 Q1 2019 Q2 2019

– Me

dian S

ales P

rice

– Av

erage

Sales

Price

– Me

dian D

ays o

n Mark

et –

Avera

ge Da

ys on

Mark

et

$1,500,000

$2,125,000

$2,750,000

$3,375,000

$4,000,000

$2,800,000$2,658,000 $2,735,000

$2,380,000$2,638,786

$3,314,112 $3,275,183 $3,253,869

$2,965,628$3,080,564

10

23

37

50

63

77

90

38

5650

56

41

49

6961

75

61

Q2- SINGLE FAMILY DETACHED HOMES

MLS® Neighbourhood Unit Sales HPI Benchmark Price 3 Months 1 Year

Altamont 1 $3,071,100 -3.19 -18.83

Ambleside 20 $2,103,400 1.18 -13.01

Bayridge 1 $2,192,400 -7.94 -14.02

British Properties 19 $2,832,800 2.93 -10.44

Canterbury WV 0 $3,998,700 0.09 -17.62

Caulfeild 5 $2,355,700 -4.75 -12.63

Cedardale 1 $1,860,600 6.51 -7.84

Chartwell 4 $3,519,700 1.42 -10.96

Cypress 3 $2,528,800 -4.38 -16.17

Cypress Park Estates 4 $2,382,700 -5.10 -23.86

Dundarave 13 $2,805,800 1.09 -14.82

Eagle Harbour 6 $1,711,600 -6.87 -12.71

Gleneagles 2 $2,344,100 -5.96 -14.05

Glenmore 3 $2,000,300 4.43 -5.00

Horseshoe Bay WV 3 $1,570,000 -2.53 -8.99

Howe Sound 1 $3,007,100 -3.44 -7.86

Lions Bay 1 $1,476,400 -2.84 -10.83

Queens 2 $2,908,500 -0.13 -11.45

Sentinel Hill 1 $2,123,600 5.97 -10.35

Upper Caulfeild 5 $2,524,700 -6.88 -16.01

West Bay 0 $3,215,600 -6.74 -11.32

Westhill 0 $3,566,500 1.37 -15.23

Westmount WV 6 $3,232,400 -7.04 -10.40

Whitby Estates 2 $4,782,700 -2.53 -22.41

Whytecliff 1 $1,994,900 -8.54 -14.04

West Vancouver 99 $2,564,600 -0.74 -12.91

2018 2019 Change (%)

Unit Sales (by Quarter)

Q1 Unit Sales 67 84 25.4%

Q2 Unit Sales 110 104 -5.5%

Q3 Unit Sales

Q4 Unit Sales

YTD Totals 332 188 -43.4%

Page 8: CONDO€¦ · Eastside, Downtown, North Vancouver, South Surrey and Richmond neighbourhoods. With more coming soon. Pent-up demand exploding at low-end of market The result is a booming

PAGE 8Faith’s Exclusive North Vancouver Analysis

SALES AND BENCHMARKPRICES BY NEIGHBOURHOOD

BENCHMARK PRICE CHANGE (%)

Price Segment ($) New Listings Added Unit Sales

0 – 200,000 0 0 0%

200,001 – 250,000 0 0 0%

250,001 – 300,000 0 0 0%

300,001 – 350,000 0 0 0%

350,001 – 400,000 0 0 0%

400,001 – 450,000 1 1 100%

450,001 – 500,000 0 0 0%

500,001 – 550,000 0 0 0%

550,001 – 600,000 3 0 0%

600,001 – 650,000 0 0 0%

650,001 – 700,000 1 0 0%

700,001 – 800,000 1 0 0%

800,001 – 900,000 1 1 100%

900,001 – 1,000,000 4 1 25%

1,000,001 – 1,250,000 5 0 20%

1,250,001 + 25 2 8%

Totals 41 5 12%

LISTING AND SALES ACTIVITY BY PRICE SEGMENTSales-to-New-Listings Ratio

THE REAL WEST VAN RESULTS: APR 2019 THE REAL NEIGHBOURHOOD RESULTS:APR 2019

FAITH’S KEY INSIGHTS: ■ There were only 5 sales of condominium apartments in West Vancouver in April. This was down a startling 75% from April of last year and the lowest level for any month so far in 2019. All of the sales took place in a Marine Drive strip from Park Royal, where there was a single sale at $1.18 million, to Ambleside, where two buyers paid a benchmark price of $766,500. Condo prices have fallen 12.9% from a year ago across West Vancouver, to $1.12 million, but the price slide slowed and even reversed in April. Benchmark sale prices were up 1.7% in April from three months earlier and 1.1% higher than in March.

■ Sellers likely recognize there is little competition coming, as starts of new condominium apartments in West Vancouver have slowed sharply. No new condo projects started in April and there are only 262 under construction in the entire municipality because pre-sales of new condos have slowed to the point developers are stopping or delaying new projects. In April, 69 new condos completed in West Vancouver, but the inventory of new and unsold condos reached 64 units, the highest level this year. While someone bought a West Vancouver condo apartment in April for less than $450,000, the best opportunity for buyers this spring is likely in listings priced above $1 million, which accounted for 74% of the 41 new listings in April. Of the 30 new listings of condos priced at $1 million or more, only 2 sold. On average it now takes 34 days for a new listing to sell, so condo buyers have the time to carefully shop the market and negotiate prices and subjects. There is a time limit, however. With vey few new condo projects coming, the low inventory of resale condos will slowly disappear.

■ Faith Wilson Group, recently honoured with a Lifetime Achievement Award by its peers for more than 20 years of sales performance and ethical standards, offers the exclusive Peace of Mind Guarantee for Buyers, our assurance that buyers can make a calm and confi dent decision for what could be the buy of a lifetime.

January 19 7 -63.2%February 14 10 -28.6%March 15 9 -40.6%April 20 7 -65.0%May June Total 68 30 -55.9%

2018 2019 CHANGEUNIT SALES (BY MONTH)

SALES PRICE QUARTERLY TREND

Days

JAN FEB MAR APR

JAN FEB MAR APR

DAYS ON MARKET QUARTERLY TREND

– Me

dian S

ales P

rice

– Av

erage

Sales

Price

– Me

dian D

ays o

n Mark

et –

Avera

ge Da

ys on

Mark

et

$750,000

$1,000,000

$1,250,000

$1,500,000

$1,750,000

$2,000,000

$1,115,000

$920,000

$1,200,000

$918,500

$1,759,857

$1,202,300$1,314,500

$1,048,409

0

15

30

45

60

75

14

3240

20

4640

61

34

MLS® Neighbourhood Unit Sales HPI Benchmark Price 3 Months 1 Year

Ambleside 2 $766,500 1.45 2.56

Cypress Park Estates 0 $2,870,800 2.09 1.26

Dundarave 1 $1,277,800 -0.50 0.17

Panorama Village 0 $1,325,000 1.91 2.00

Park Royal 1 $1,183,000 2.09 1.23

West Vancouver 5 $1,128,500 1.11 1.78

APRIL- APARTMENTS /CONDOS

Page 9: CONDO€¦ · Eastside, Downtown, North Vancouver, South Surrey and Richmond neighbourhoods. With more coming soon. Pent-up demand exploding at low-end of market The result is a booming

PAGE 9Faith’s Exclusive North Vancouver Analysis

SALES AND BENCHMARKPRICES BY NEIGHBOURHOOD

BENCHMARK PRICE CHANGE (%)

Price Segment ($) New Listings Added Unit Sales

0 – 200,000 0 0 #DIV/0!

200,001 – 250,000 0 0 #DIV/0!

250,001 – 300,000 1 0 #DIV/0!

300,001 – 350,000 0 0 #DIV/0!

350,001 – 400,000 0 0 #DIV/0!

400,001 – 450,000 2 0 0%

450,001 – 500,000 0 1 #DIV/0!

500,001 – 550,000 0 0 #DIV/0!

550,001 – 600,000 1 0 0%

600,001 – 650,000 0 0 #DIV/0!

650,001 – 700,000 2 0 0%

700,001 – 800,000 6 0 0%

800,001 – 900,000 2 1 50%

900,001 – 1,000,000 4 2 50%

1,000,001 – 1,250,000 1 0 200%

1,250,001 + 27 3 11%

Totals 46 7 15%

LISTING AND SALES ACTIVITY BY PRICE SEGMENTSales-to-New-Listings Ratio

THE REAL WEST VAN RESULTS: MAY 2019 THE REAL NEIGHBOURHOOD RESULTS: MAY 2019

FAITH’S KEY INSIGHTS: ■ Condominium apartment sales in West Vancouver fell 63.2% in May compared to May of last year and sales were the same as in January. This is an anomaly because May is normally one of the best months for housing sales, The slows sales are despite an18.6% decline in condo prices – a cash reduction of more than $185,000 based on current benchmark prices of just over $1 million – from a year ago. Just 7 condo sold in May from the 46 new listings that were added to the market. It now takes an unprecedented average of 77 days for a new listing for a condo to sell in West Vancouver.

■ West Vancouver condo sellers need not fear a sudden rush of new competition, since construction of new condos has come to almost a complete halt. In the fi rst fi ve months of this year, only 5 new condos were started, compared to 118 at the same time last year. And, of the 263 new condos marketing in West Vancouver, 57 of them remained unsold. With this type of response to pre-sales, we don’t expect developers to be in a hurry to built more units. What is being set up, however, is an eventual shortage of supply and, without doubt, rising prices as buyers eventually absorb the inventory. In May the highest sales - 3 - were seen in condos priced at more than $1.25 million as savvy buyers realize that this is where the selection and the savings are the highest.

January 19 7 -63.2%February 14 10 -28.6%March 15 9 -40.6%April 20 7 -65.0%May 19 7 -63.2%June Total 87 40 -54.0%

2018 2019 CHANGEUNIT SALES (BY MONTH)

– Me

dian S

ales P

rice

– Av

erage

Sales

Price

– Me

dian D

ays o

n Mark

et –

Avera

ge Da

ys on

Mark

et

SALES PRICE QUARTERLY TREND

DAYS ON MARKET QUARTERLY TREND

Days

JAN FEB MAR APR MAY

JAN FEB MAR APR MAY

$750,000

$1,000,000

$1,250,000

$1,500,000

$1,750,000

$2,000,000

$1,115,000

$920,000

$1,350,000

$875,500$990,000

$1,759,857

$1,202,300

$1,335,111 $971,409

$1,572,000

0102030405060708090

14

32

50

20

43

4640

63

34

77

MLS® Neighbourhood Unit Sales HPI Benchmark Price 3 Months 1 Year

Ambleside 0 $ 689,600 -4.61 -3.52

Cypress Park Estates 1 $ 2,340,600 -5.64 -6.06

Dundarave 2 $ 1,188,000 -4.42 -5.88

Panorama Village 0 $ 1,213,800 -6.80 -3.31

Park Royal 1 $ 1,085,300 -1.47 -1.60

West Vancouver 4 $ 1,022,700 -4.42 -3.97

MAY- APARTMENTS /CONDOS

MLS® Neighbourhood Unit Sales HPI Benchmark Price 3 Months 1 Year

Ambleside 2 $766,500 1.45 2.56

Cypress Park Estates 0 $2,870,800 2.09 1.26

Dundarave 1 $1,277,800 -0.50 0.17

Panorama Village 0 $1,325,000 1.91 2.00

Park Royal 1 $1,183,000 2.09 1.23

West Vancouver 5 $1,128,500 1.11 1.78

Page 10: CONDO€¦ · Eastside, Downtown, North Vancouver, South Surrey and Richmond neighbourhoods. With more coming soon. Pent-up demand exploding at low-end of market The result is a booming

PAGE 10Faith’s Exclusive North Vancouver Analysis

SALES AND BENCHMARKPRICES BY NEIGHBOURHOOD

BENCHMARK PRICE CHANGE (%)

Price Segment ($) New Listings Added Unit Sales

0 – 200,000 0 0 0%

200,001 – 250,000 0 0 0%

250,001 – 300,000 0 0 0%

300,001 – 350,000 0 0 0%

350,001 – 400,000 2 0 0%

400,001 – 450,000 0 0 0%

450,001 – 500,000 0 0 0%

500,001 – 550,000 2 0 0%

550,001 – 600,000 0 0 0%

600,001 – 650,000 1 0 0%

650,001 – 700,000 0 0 0%

700,001 – 800,000 2 0 0%

800,001 – 900,000 7 0 0%

900,001 – 1,000,000 2 0 0%

1,000,001 – 1,250,000 1 2 0%

1,250,001 + 18 4 22%

Totals 35 6 17%

LISTING AND SALES ACTIVITY BY PRICE SEGMENTSales-to-New-Listings Ratio

THE REAL WEST VAN RESULTS: JUN 2019 THE REAL NEIGHBOURHOOD RESULTS: JUN 2019

FAITH’S KEY INSIGHTS: ■ There were only 18 condominium apartment sales in West Vancouver during June and they represent a very narrow band, both in price and location. All but one of the sales were of listings priced at more than $1 million, with half of them at more than $1.25 million. All of the sales were along Marine Drive from the Park Royal area to Ambleside and Dudarave. Of the 35 new listings in June, more than half were for $1.25 million or more. There were 14 new listings priced at $900,000 or less, including 4 at less than $550,000, but none of these sold.

■ The domination of higher-priced sales and listings is refl ected in the price stability. Despite a 60% decline in sales in June compared to June of 2018, the benchmark price of a West Vancouver condo remains at just over $1 million, down less than 2% from three months earlier. Prices may not decline much further because the inventory is shrinking. Just 5 new condos were started during the fi rst fi ve months of this year in West Vancouver, compared to118 at the same time last year. With pre-sales for new condos down, some developers are putting projects on hold, setting the stage for a future shortage.

January 19 7 -63.2%February 14 10 -28.6%March 15 9 -40.6%April 20 7 -65.0%May 19 9 -53.2%June 15 6 -60.0%Total 102 48 -52.0%

2018 2019 CHANGEUNIT SALES (BY MONTH)

SALES PRICE MONTHLY TREND

– Me

dian S

ales P

rice

– Av

erage

Sales

Price

JAN FEB

Days

– Me

dian D

ays o

n Mark

et –

Avera

ge Da

ys on

Mark

etDAYS ON MARKET MONTHLY TREND

JAN FEB

MAR

MAR

APR

APR

MAY

MAY

JUN

JUN

$750,000

$1,000,000

$1,250,000

$1,500,000

$1,750,000

$2,000,000

$1,115,000

$920,000

$1,350,000

$875,500$990,000

$1,425,000

$1,759,857

$1,202,300$1,335,111

$971,409

$1,466,667

$1,604,167

0102030405060708090

14

32

50

20

53

68

4640

63

34

8074

MLS® Neighbourhood Unit Sales HPI Benchmark Price 3 Months 1 Year

Ambleside 1 $ 685,700 -0.57 -3.15

Cypress Park Estates 1 $ 2,411,600 3.03 -2.51

Dundarave 2 $ 1,235,300 3.99 -0.69

Panorama Village 0 $ 1,228,400 1.20 -1.75

Park Royal 2 $ 1,076,900 -0.77 -0.68

West Vancouver 6 $ 1,034,500 1.15 -1.82

JUNE- APARTMENTS /CONDOS

Page 11: CONDO€¦ · Eastside, Downtown, North Vancouver, South Surrey and Richmond neighbourhoods. With more coming soon. Pent-up demand exploding at low-end of market The result is a booming

PAGE 11Faith’s Exclusive North Vancouver Analysis

SALES AND BENCHMARKPRICES BY NEIGHBOURHOOD

BENCHMARK PRICE CHANGE (%)

Price Segment ($) New Listings Added Unit Sales

0 – 200,000 0 0 0%

200,001 – 250,000 0 0 0%

250,001 – 300,000 1 0 0%

300,001 – 350,000 0 0 0%

350,001 – 400,000 2 0 0%

400,001 – 450,000 3 1 33%

450,001 – 500,000 0 1 0%

500,001 – 550,000 3 0 0%

550,001 – 600,000 3 0 0%

600,001 – 650,000 1 0 0%

650,001 – 700,000 3 1 33%

700,001 – 800,000 10 0 0%

800,001 – 900,000 9 3 33%

900,001 – 1,000,000 11 4 36%

1,000,001 – 1,250,000 6 3 67%

1,250,001 + 70 9 13%

Totals 122 22 18%

LISTING AND SALES ACTIVITY BY PRICE SEGMENTSales-to-New-Listings Ratio

THE REAL WEST VAN RESULTS: Q2 2019 THE REAL NEIGHBOURHOOD RESULTS: Q2 2019

FAITH’S KEY INSIGHTS: ■ The fi ve-year mortgage rate is falling, now quoted in the 2.54% to 2.99% range, even at major banks. This is important to the condominium market because the mortgage stress test is anchored on the fi ve-year rate, so a lower fi ve-year rate means more buyers can qualify for the condo they want to buy. West Vancouver condo sellers need any help they can get. In Q2, the sales-to-new-listing ratio was a low 18%, sales were down 54% from a year ago and benchmark condo prices were down 16.2% to 19.8% from Q2 2018. Prices are fi rming, however, down just 1.8% three months ago, an indication prices may have bottomed at just over $1 million.

DAYS ON MARKET QUARTERLY TREND

SALES PRICE QUARTERLY TREND

Days

Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2018 Q1 2019 Q2 2019

Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2018 Q1 2019 Q2 2019

– Me

dian S

ales P

rice

– Av

erage

Sales

Price

– Me

dian D

ays o

n Mark

et –

Avera

ge Da

ys on

Mark

et

$500,000

$900,000

$1,300,000

$1,700,000

$2,100,000

$2,500,000

$1,272,500$1,040,000 $1,000,000

$1,082,000 $1,150,000

$1,504,259 $1,457,035

$1,942,220

$1,398,385 $1,346,457

0

15

30

45

60

75

1722 24

32

4936 34

41

50

63

MLS® Neighbourhood Unit Sales HPI Benchmark Price 3 Months 1 Year

Ambleside 1 $ 685,700 -0.57 -3.15

Cypress Park Estates 1 $ 2,411,600 3.03 -2.51

Dundarave 2 $ 1,235,300 3.99 -0.69

Panorama Village 0 $ 1,228,400 1.20 -1.75

Park Royal 2 $ 1,076,900 -0.77 -0.68

West Vancouver 6 $ 1,034,500 1.15 -1.82

MLS® Neighbourhood Unit Sales HPI Benchmark Price 3 Months 1 Year

Ambleside 8 $685,700 -3.15 -18.27

Cypress Park Estates 2 $2,411,600 -2.51 -19.82

Dundarave 7 $1,235,300 -0.69 -16.93

Panorama Village 1 $1,228,400 -1.75 -17.82

Park Royal 3 $1,076,900 -1.75 -17.82

West Vancouver 22 $1,034,500 -1.82 -16.29

Q2- APARTMENTS /CONDOS

2018 2019 Change (%)

Unit Sales (by Quarter)

Q1 Unit Sales 48 25 -47.9%

Q2 Unit Sales 54 22 -59.3%

Q3 Unit Sales

Q4 Unit Sales

YTD Totals 102 47 -53.9%

Page 12: CONDO€¦ · Eastside, Downtown, North Vancouver, South Surrey and Richmond neighbourhoods. With more coming soon. Pent-up demand exploding at low-end of market The result is a booming

TO GET STARTEDFirst, visit FaithWilsonGroup.com for extensive details about: Vancouver area neighbourhoods from dog parks to home pricing by property type; our 360 degree Performance Promise; our exclusive monthly Market Update research publications; our awards & achievements and much, much more.Then, call me at 604-224-5277 or 1-855-760-6886, or email me at [email protected]

So you have decided to buyyour next dream home?

HAS THE PLANthat will find and secure the home that best meets your needs backed by their specialized market knowledge, their bank of prospective sellers, their leading edge search technology and their experience at writing offers to promote & protect you!

HAS THE TEAMthat will focus on listening to and helping you define your needs & wants in context of TODAY’s market; that has the expertise and successful experience to structure offers that promote & protect YOU!

IS COMMITTEDto you being totally informed such that you will make your buying decision with complete peace of mind! Witness our unique neighbourhood profiles at FaithWilsonGroup.com.

DELIVERSa proven track record of negotiation expertise and successful transactions, in a wide spectrum of property types across the Lower Mainland, along with a benchmark level of overall client satisfaction.

To find the best home for your needs at the price you deserve what you need is a Realtor® who:

AND BOTTOM LINEYOUR SATISFACTION IS GUARANTEED

NOT HAPPY with your new home within the first 18 months? Then, we will relist it, resell it and not charge you our commission!

*Some conditions apply


Recommended