CONFLICT BRIEFING NOTES

CONFLICT BRIEFING NO. 14, June 2014

KEY MESSAGES

ON THE GROUND

1. JAS SUSTAINS ATTACKS ON NORTH EAST 2

2. COMMUNAL CLASHES PERSIST IN SOUTHERN KADUNA 2

3. TENSION MOUNTS IN PLATEAU AFTER BOMB BLAST 3

4. POWER CHANGE UNDERMINES SECURITY IN KANO 3

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THE NATIONAL CONTEXT 4

*Disclaimer: The contents of this briefing note do not necessarily reflect the views of DFID or the UK Government.

** All reports are based on anonymous NSRP sources.

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MOBILIZATIONS FOR 2015 HEAT UP NIGER DELTA

6. FEARS OF JAS ATTACK IN SOUTHERN NIGERIA CREATE PANIC 4

ON THE GROUND1. JAS SUSTAINS ATTACKS ON NORTH EAST COMMUNITIES

The mounting casualty figures of the insurgency despite the increased security personnel in the region

have raised concerns about the efficacy of the security agencies approach to ending the insurgency. The

month of June ended without any positive outcome on efforts to secure the release of the school girls

kidnapped in Chibok, Borno State. The report of the presidential committee on the incident, which was

submitted to the president on June 19, showed that 219 girls are still missing while 57 girls who escaped

have been reunited with their families. Emboldened by the challenges faced by security forces, suspected

JAS militants continued to invade communities in northern and southern Borno. In one incident, the

insurgents allegedly captured 20 women from a Fulani community in Chibok LGA. The community leaders

reported that this was a reccurring development and that kidnapped women were often released after

payment of ransom of about 20 cows.

On June 2, over 300 persons were killed in raids by suspected JAS militants on communities in Gwoza LGA.

The attack on Gwoza occurred after last month's killing of its emir during a trip to Gombe. 45 persons were

also killed in Bargari, Konduga LGA by suspected JAS militants who disguised as itinerant preachers and

attracted a crowd of villagers. Aggrieved communities complained that the attacks occurred after they

reported threats and warnings issued by JAS to security agencies. This development has eroded trust in

government and security agencies among the local population and prompted mass migrations from rural

communities to Maiduguri. The movement of IDPs to Maiduguri is aggravating the situation of humanitarian

emergency as there is no systematic support for them. Maiduguri residents have had to bear the burden of

catering for friends and relatives. Strained relations between Governor Kashim Shettima and the Federal

Government have adversely affected cooperation needed for tackling the insurgency. There are indications

that the governor is not involved in decision making on security matters which has resided on the

commandant of the Joint Task Force since the declaration of emergency rule. Shettima's open admission

that the insurgents are better armed than the military has also undermined relations with security agencies.

Amidst concerns about capability of the JTF, the security forces recorded some successes in preventing

some JAS attacks. In one such operation, the JTF ambushed suspected JAS insurgents in Biita, Borno

State. The operation led to the killing of 50 insurgents and recovery of large quantities of ammunition

including 11 rocket propelled grenades. The JTF also carried out attacks on JAS camps in Miyani, Bulungu

and Duguri killing 40 suspected insurgents and recovering arms. NSRP sources suggest that the weapons

recovered from JAS provide the security agencies with greater insight into the capability of JAS. It is

against this background that the military has stopped all but military aircrafts from flying into Maiduguri

International Airport. Intelligence reports suggest that JAS has acquired the capability to shoot down

aircrafts. The closure of the airport, which led to the cancellation of planned airlift of pilgrims, including

Governor Shettima, to Mecca, further undermined relations between Abuja and Maiduguri since this

intelligence information was not shared with the state government.

2. COMMUNAL CLASHES PERSISTS IN SOUTHERN KADUNA

Kaduna State generally remained stable even though several rural communities experienced attacks by

unknown invaders. The violence affected mostly communities in Southern Kaduna where allegations of

cattle rustling have ignited intermittent incidents of inter-communal violence for the past 5 months. The

death toll from the violence that affected several communities in Sanga LGA was 110. In all cases, the

violence was between locals and purported Fulani herdsmen. The growing number of displaced persons

resulting from the violence has led to the overcrowding of poorly maintained IDP camps in the state.

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Frequent clashes in southern Kaduna have reinforced longstanding grievance in the area and led to

renewal of the agitation for the creation of state for the people of the area. Youth groups from the area have

taken advantage of National Conference to renew demand for the creation of Southern Kaduna State.

Proponents of the new state have called for the elevation of Southern Kaduna Senatorial district to a state or

the excision of southern eastern sections of Plateau State to join Southern Kaduna in a new state. Given the

extant conflict among groups, NSRP sources indicate that non-creation of the state or location of the capital

of a new state will engender resentments that may lead to violence.

Some initiatives by the state government were perceived as contributing to stability. These include the

introduction of a scheme that supports commercial motor-cycle operators who have been banned in

operating in five LGAs in Kaduna metropolis to purchase tricycles and the revitalization of two tomato

processing factories. The initiatives are expected to provide employments for youths.

3. TENSION MOUNTS IN PLATEAU AFTER BOMB BLAST

The security situation in Plateau was tense in June following the bomb attacks on Terminus market. Security

was beefed up across the state following impending threats of bombing of schools and other public places.

This led to the closure of schools and evacuation of squatters and street hawkers further undermining

livelihoods of affected families. There are fears that the evacuations have added to the growing number of

IDPs in the state and that lack of support for IDPs may make them vulnerable to recruitment into violence

and crime. The security build-up also resulted in some incidents of human rights violations at road blocks

and check points mounted by security agents. In one of such incidents, a soldier attached to the Special task

Force (STF) reportedly stabbed a taxi driver following the refusal of the driver to offer bribe. The prompt

response of the sector commander of STF averted reprisal attacks by members of the Road Transport

Workers union. However, the security build-up yielded some results as it led to the killing of Hussaini, a

suspected JAS commander who was allegedly on a mission from Bauchi to mastermind more bomb attacks

on Jos.

The spate of communal violence between Fulani and Berom continued especially in Jos South and Riyom

LGAs. Casualty figures reported for the 4 incidents of violence were 38 villagers and 2 policemen.

Properties were destroyed and about 60 cows belonging to Fulani communities were slaughtered as a

result of the violence. The escalation of violence has undermined peacebuilding efforts as it has heightened

suspicion between Berom and Fulani communities.

A political development likely to affect security in the state is the planned probe of Governor Jonah David

Jang. The State House of Assembly reportedly instituted a probe following a petition from Plateau Patriotic

Forum, which alleged the governor had embezzled N50billion. There are rumours that the probe is aimed at

impeachment of the governor and any such moves will undermine security given the appeal the governor

has with some groups in the state.

4. POWER CHANGE UNDERMINES SECURITY IN KANO

The circumstances surrounding the death Bayero and emergence of Sanusi raised tensions with protests

reported in Kano metropolis. It also affected the pomp usually associated with the turbanning of an emir.

Although tensions have eased, NSRP sources suggest that the situation will only improve if the new emir

avoids partisan politics and promotes reconciliation in the state.

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5. MOBILIZATIONS FOR 2015 HEAT UP NIGER DELTA

Mobilizations among different interest groups in the Niger Delta continued to undermine security in the

region. In Bayelsa State, the position of Governor Seriake Dickson appears increasingly threatened by

reports that he has fallen out with his political godfathers. Dickson is believed to have lost the confidence of

President Goodluck Jonathan and King A. J. Turner when he started mobilizing for a second tenure against

the pact that brought him to power. He is also believed to have offended the president by concentrating

development projects in his senatorial district and neglecting the president's area. The misunderstanding

has reached a point where Turner is believed to be nursing the ambition to contest the governorship in 2016.

Dickson is also contending with Mrs. Deziani Allison Madueke, Minister of Petroleum who is believed to be

preparing to run for the office. Relations between Madukwe and Dickson have been strained since the

rumoured interest of Madueke in the governorship. There is widespread rumours in the state that Dickson

used his influence with the House of Representatives were he served two terms to mastermind the probe of

Madueke over the charter of aircrafts and management of oil revenues. There are indications that all

interested actors have started mobilising armed groups to support their ambitions. This has particularly been

evident over the recent overtures of Dickson to the ex-militants he had previously opposed.

The conflicts between Governor Rotimi Amaechi and President Jonathan also deepened in the month. The

struggle for supremacy between Amaechi and allies of Jonathan in the state played out mostly in the law

courts. The lingering issue of appointment of Chief Judge for the state raised tensions after the National

Judicial Council which had earlier ruled that Justice Daisy Okocha was the rightful candidate for the post of

chief judge, should start acting as administrative judge of the state. This followed the refusal of Amaechi to

swear her in as state judge. Amaechi had appointed Justice Peter Agumagu, President of the Rivers State

Customary Court as acting chief judge of the state but the NJC voided the appointment on the grounds that

Agumagu was not a judge of Rivers State High Court. In order to prevent Justice Okocha from acting as

administrative judge, the Rivers State House of Assembly passed an executive bill which empowered the

Chief Registrar of Rivers State Judiciary to assign cases in the High Court. The Rivers State judiciary has

been dragged into the conflicts as the APC is opposed to Okocha, who is perceived as an ally of Nyesom

Wike, the supervising Minister of Education. By preventing Okocha from taking up the post, the Amaechi led

APC is seeking to forestall any possibility of the headship of the state judiciary going to a judge that is

sympathetic to the PDP and may be used to prosecute rumoured plans to impeach Amaechi. The rift over the

appointment of the State Chief shows how polarised Rivers state has become.

THE NATIONAL CONTEXT 6. FEARS OF JAS ATTACKS IN SOUTHERN NIGERIA CREATE PANIC

An atmosphere of fear was pervasive in the country in June following indications that JAS has increased its

capability to launch attacks anywhere it wanted to target. This followed what appeared to be coordinated

bomb attacks in Abuja, Mubi and Lagos by suspected JAS insurgents within a space of 3 days. The bomb

blast in Abuja, which targeted a popular shopping plaza, led to the death of 22 persons and injury of scores of

innocent passers-by and traders while I person each were killed in Mubi and Lagos. Similar explosions in

Owerri and Ibadan were reported but with no claims of responsibility by JAS. However, JAS later claimed

responsibility for the explosion in Lagos after the government claimed it was an accident. The incidents

which indicate that JAS has been able to maintain its cells in different parts of the country have created panic

across the country.

The fear that JAS is moving toward southern Nigeria has raised concern and led to responses that pose

threats to human rights and national unity. Security agencies have intensified checks on vehicles conveying

passengers and goods from northern Nigeria to the south. During the month, security agencies in Abia State

impounded 31 buses and arrested their 486 passengers. This was based on the suspicion that the

passengers were members of JAS sent to launch attacks on different parts southern Nigeria. The detention

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of the suspects provoked condemnation by some northern leaders, especially the Government of Kano State

where most of the buses originated from.

The fear of JAS also engendered panic reaction from several state governments. For instance, the Imo State

Government hinted it was going to commence registration of non-indigenes after report of an explosion near a

church in Owerri. The proposed registration which followed earlier efforts by the Lagos State government has

heightened tension in the country. Many fear that it would lead to mass repatriation of Nigerians from their

areas of residence to their states of origin.

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