Presentation to the Climate Risk Workshop regarding the Griffith University research project:
Communities on the Edge.
Conjola District Lakecare Association
Community Consultative Body for Lake Conjola, Conjola Park, and Fishermans Paradise.
The Conjola District Lakecare Association is an autonomous body within the Lake Conjola physical catchment representing the interests of the local communities and environment and reporting and negotiating these to Shoalhaven City Council and other levels of Government.
The Association is a Community Consultative Body (CCB), one of about 25 in the Shoalhaven LGA and was established under the CCB Guidelines set by Shoalhaven City Council. It reports to Council but is not a Committee of Council.
Our Association was approached by Griffith University as our area’s natural hazards (flooding and bushfire) as well as its semi-remote location and limited road access make it a good candidate for the research aims of their project:
Communities on the Edge: Understanding the thresholds to coastal communities’ resilience and adaptation to natural hazards.
Our Association is making an in-kind contribution for the 3-year duration of the project which will comprise items such as member’s time, provision of maps, documents, and surveys, printing of fliers, obtaining media coverage, and possibly provision of venues and accommodation from time to time.
The benefits of this study for Lake Conjola, the Shoalhaven, and coastal communities generally can be summarised as follows:
1. Produces an action plan for the resilient development of the Conjola District over a number of years,
2. May be transferrable and scalable to assist other similar communities,
3. Has a close fit with the work of Council’s Coastal Committee and associated Policies, and
4. Will assist the Shoalhaven’s standing as being on the cutting edge of appropriate research applying to coastal issues.
Methodology: Scenario Planning Scenario planning is a strategic tool. It can be used to
develop a science based decision making framework in the face of high uncertainty and low controllability (Peterson et al, 2003).
It provides a systematic approach for the development and testing of plans, strategies and policies in an uncertain environment through the creation of possible futures to test them in (O’Brien, undated).
Scenario planning creates possible futures to inform present decision-making. Developed during World War 2 and then pioneered by the Royal Dutch Shell Company, the technique is now widely used to consider the future by the public and private sectors worldwide.
Futures thinking needs a structured systematic approach to explore the range of possible futures rather than relying on the prediction of a single expected or ‘most-likely’ future(Cork et al, 2005).
To this end, scenario planning involves:
1. the identification of a focal issue or question;
2. assessing certain and uncertain drivers of the issue or question over a selected timeframe;
3. the development of options based on those drivers – i.e. creation of scenarios (plausible and coherent pictures of possible futures);
4. the development of narratives from the present to the possible futures (including a ‘roadmap’ for each scenario with signposts that could indicate if one future is becoming more likely than another) and,
5. testing existing plans, strategies and policies against each scenarios.
Scenario planning is instructive for a decision context that involves a particular question or problem that demands action now but will play out in an uncertain future (O’Brien, undated). It involves the systematic exploration and description of the range of ways in which uncertainties could be played out and their impact on the focal question.
Scenario planning “simplifies the avalanche of data into a limited number of possible states” (Schoemaker, 1995: 27).
Each scenario involves the consideration of: likely trends; uncertainties; and possible shocks and surprises (welcome and unwelcome).
Because the actual scenario planning exercise normally involves a small select group, it is important that the scenarios are communicated to the wider audience of stakeholders so that they too can benefit from the reflection of the scenarios and their consequences. The scenarios can provide a useful ‘hypothetical’ to engage stakeholders about the uncertainties of the future, especially in the context of a wider regional planning and visioning exercise.
Media release and flier (funded and hand delivered by CDLA)
Time to Think
By Sue Ferguson
The Conjola District Resilience Project is heading for the second meeting with researchers on the 29th June and residents in the district are encouraged to think.
At the first Conjola Resilience Forum in May, residents were asked by Professor Darryl Low Choy, to think about the idea of long term strategic planning of the communities in the Conjola District.
“How do you want your communities to look in 20 to 30 years time?” Professor Low Choy from Griffith University in Queensland asked the residents who attended the May forum.
“How does a community self empower itself to come up with a plan?” Professor Low Choy posed the research questions at the last forum. “This is not a council plan” he said. It is a plan created by community members with the assistance of the Professor and his Research Fellow Dr Sylvia Serrao-Neumann.
As the Conjola District including Fishermans Paradise, the upper catchment and Lake Conjola is an area vulnerable to the natural hazards such as storms, floods, fire and rising sea levels, it was selected for the Resilience Research Project.
Resilience is a very new field with the focus on enhancing the strengths and ability people have to adapt to the impacts of the changes in weather patterns.
“Why did they rebuild Darwin in the same spot after Cyclone Tracey?” We have had this mantra that big brother, government and local etc will look after us the Professor said “Can we continue to expect that as more extreme weather events occur? Why don’t we plan for it in a broad sense?”
While these were just some of the questions put those who attended the first forum could go away and think about, there will be more food for thought as the next forum is to be held at the Lake Conjola Community Centre in a couple of weeks. Bookings are needed for catering.
For more information, contact Elaine Caswell
Table 1. Revised list of community groups/ networks/ organisations grouped by potential type of interest
Potential Interest Identified community groups/ networks/ organisations (P-primary; S- secondary; T-tertiary)
Social Cultural
Community
Lake Conjola Bowling and Recreation Club* (P) Lake Conjola Fishing Club (P) Lake Conjola Pony Club (P) Conjola District Lakecare Association (P) Fisherman’s Paradise Volunteer Group Inc. (P) Millhouse Art Society (Milton) (T)
Economic Businesses
Shoalhaven Business Chambers (southern district/ Ulladulla chapter?**) (T) Lake Conjola Caravan Parks and Resorts (P) Shoalhaven Tourism (?) (T) Post Office (P) Retail stores (P) Local farmers (?) (S) Nurseries (T)
Community services
Community Nursing (S) Meals on Wheels (S) Home Care (S) Community Transport Aid (CTA) (T) Shoalhaven Community Transport Association (T) Anglican Church (‘Anglicare’ ?) (T) Salvation Army (T) St Vincent de Pauls (T) The Times Newspaper (S) 2ST and ABC Illawarra Radio (S) Local Emergency Management Committee (health, police, fire rescue, ambulance and combat agencies) – Rural Fire Service, SES, Marine Rescue (P)
Traditional owners Indigenous
Ulladulla Local Aboriginal Land Council (P) Jerrinja Local Aboriginal Land Council (P)
Environmental Ecological
Nationals Parks Association (P) Bush Care (S) Shorebird Recovery Program (S) WIRES (Wildlife Information Rescue Education Services Inc) (T) Dept of Primary Industries (Fisheries) (P)
* List order does not indicate importance or priority. **Question mark indicates need for further investigation as to whether names and/or groups are accurate and formally exist.
Report Aims and Structure This report presents a summary of the discussions undertaken during the II
Workshop held on September 15th 2013 at the Lake Conjola Community Hall,
Shoalhaven, NSW, which involved the participation of 19 people (17 members
of the community and 2 members of the research team). A series of
engagement strategies were used by the Conjola District Lakecare Association
to invite community members and maximise attendance to the Workshop (see
Appendix 1).
The Workshop was structured in five sessions as follows (see Appendix 2 for
the Workshop schedule):
1. In-depth identification of community networks;
2. Completion of a SWOT analysis of the Conjola District’s future;
3. Definition of a long term Vision for the Conjola District;
4. Definition of community priorities; and
5. Scoping of options for community responses to future natural hazards
and disasters.
The report is structured based on the five sessions outlined above. The next
section
Table 2. Compilation of SWOT analysis results by sub-syndicate
Group 1 Group 2 Strengths
Natural environment (topography, ocean, beach, lake bush) / biodiversity (flora, fauna) Lack of development Isolated, small, peaceful Affordable housing Nice climate (temperate) Clean air, weather Abundance of wildlife Experienced, diverse retired and youth population (wisdom) Safe and secure Caring and helpful neighbours, close knit/ inclusive Economic stimulus (visitors) national parks Variety of things to do Values in heritage
Location (lake, beach) Tranquillity Population – density, lack of
commercial Activities – bush walks, beach
fishing, lake fishing, boating, swimming, water-skiing, canoeing
Environment – birds, animals, air quality, water quality, bushlands
Ability to attract tourism, economy
Weaknesses
Isolation Lack of community consultation,
apathy Community spirit/ connection Lack of willing volunteers, pressure
on volunteers No strategy/ motivation for volunteers No emergency plans Lack of trust of politicians/ councils Sceptical of ‘plans’/ process Lack of facts Single mindedness, apathy Lack of leadership/ leadership skills Lack of funds Ageing population Adverse to change Lower socio economic and lack of
cultural diversity Transport public/ cost of (petrol) Distance to medical Tourism pressure Lack of skills audit Lack of cultural events (arts) Under-utilised community hall Alcohol issues – bad behaviour,
rubbish, vandalism (tourism season)
Ageing population Apathy of community Lack of communication facilities at
busy times (services) Lack of public transport Infrastructure – road condition One road in – one road out in times
of emergency Lack of water drainage Susceptible to fires, flood, storms
(wind), rising ocean levels and tsunami
Lack of services – medical Lack of kerb/ guttering, footpath,
walkways Lack of wheelchair access (council
jetty) Lack of boat launching facility
SWOT AnalysisWeaknesses
Isolation Lack of community consultation, apathy Community spirit/ connection Lack of willing volunteers, pressure on
volunteers No strategy/ motivation for volunteers No emergency plans Lack of trust of politicians/ councils Sceptical of ‘plans’/ process Lack of facts Single mindedness, apathy Lack of leadership/ leadership skills Lack of funds Ageing population Adverse to change Lower socio economic and lack of
cultural diversity Transport public/ cost of (petrol) Distance to medical Tourism pressure Lack of skills audit Lack of cultural events (arts) Under-utilised community hall Alcohol issues – bad behaviour,
rubbish, vandalism (tourism season)
Ageing population Apathy of community Lack of communication facilities at
busy times (services) Lack of public transport Infrastructure – road condition One road in – one road out in times
of emergency Lack of water drainage Susceptible to fires, flood, storms
(wind), rising ocean levels and tsunami
Lack of services – medical Lack of kerb/ guttering, footpath,
walkways Lack of wheelchair access (council
jetty) Lack of boat launching facility
Opportunities
Tourist spending $ No net loss to the environment Intergeneration equity Eco showcase/ best practice Protect endangered species, flora and
fauna Community building Utilise digital technology Learning/ education through
participation/ volunteering Develop a learning/ skills culture Skills audit Communication channels, digital
technology Cycleway to Milton (can be used by
electric buggies / bikes as well). Removal of all “illegal” structures on
lake foreshores and allow lake to return to what nature intended.
Minimise the likelihood of flood and fire through stormwater upgrade and other measures
Draw tourists Quiet lifestyle Friendly Maintain quality of life – less stress To provide more cooperation from
council in regards to birds, wildlife
Conclusion Key outcomes of the discussions held at the II Workshop are highlighted below:
The community of interest to be involved in the development of the strategic
Action Plan has been reconfirmed and includes the current Community
Consultative Body for the Conjola District, Lake Conjola, Conjola Park,
Fishermans Paradise and communities west of the Princess Highway.
A Working Group with representatives from the Conjola District community
will be established to continue the development of its strategic Action Plan.
The Working Group will comprise a range of stakeholders to ensure multiple
interests are represented in the development of the strategic Action Plan,
including social through to ecological and economic interests.
A draft Vision for the Conjola District has been devised with a strong focus
on maintaining and improving the area’s high environmental values and life
style. This draft Vision statement will form the central plank to the Working
Group’s immediate communication and engagement process.
Community engagement efforts will continue to maximise community
participation in the process particularly targeting permanent residents;
temporary residents, particularly staying in the are during holiday periods;
second home owners; local youth, potentially through teachers, school
principals, cultural groups, church groups and sporting groups; and caravan
park visitors.
Two workshops focused on scenario planning will be held to give continuity to
the process of developing the strategic Action Plan. The first scenario planning
workshop
Bushfire Threat…..years since last fire (2008) RFS
Next Workshop Saturday 23 November 2013………….
Serial Timing Activity Comments
1 8.45am-9.00am Registration
2 9.00am-9.10am Introduction and Background to the workshop Darryl Low Choy
3 9.10am-9.40am Introduction to and outline of Scenario Planning Approach Scenario planning Drivers of change
Task 3
4 9.40am-11.15am Identification of drivers of change Brainstorming session on drivers of change Identification of key drivers of change Classification of drivers of change in terms
of uncertainty and importance
Task 4 and 5PlenaryIn groupsIn groups
5 11.15-11.30am MORNING TEA
7 11.30am-12.30pm Likely Trends, Uncertainties, Shocks and Surprises
Task 6In groups
8 12.30pm-1.00pm Report back from the different groups Task 7Plenary
9 1.00pm-1.30pm LUNCH
10 1.30pm-2.15pm Synthesis - Identify critical drivers - highly uncertain and highly important
Task 8Plenary
11 2.15pm-3.00pm Scenario frameworks Creation of scenario matrix to explore four possible scenarios for the future
Task 9In groups
12 3.00pm-3.15pm AFTERNOON TEA
13 3.15pm-3.45pm Report back from the different groups
Plenary
14 3.45pm-4.00pm Next steps and Wrap-up Darryl Low Choy
Task Scenario Planning Workshop Tasks Input
1 Registration – signing of attendance list and consent form Attendance list and consent form
2 Introduction and background to the workshop
Agenda and tasks for the day are explained.
Workshop agenda and tasks
3 Introduction to and outline of Scenario Planning ApproachScenario planning methodology explained Presentation of focal questionIntroduction to drivers of change – global, national, regional, local
Scenario Planning Fact Sheet Focal Question Spider web – drivers of change
4 Identification of drivers of change Brainstorming session on drivers of change - in plenary format participants
are asked to identify drivers of change for the future of Conjola District and region
Breakdown in groups to identification of key drivers of change and scale – global, national, regional, local
Focal Question Fact Sheets
5 Classification of drivers of change In groups, participants attribute scale of uncertainty and importance to
identified key drivers
Graph Uncertainty x Importance
6 Likely Trends, Uncertainties, Shocks and Surprises Unpacking of key drivers table
7 Report back from the different groups Report on outputs of serial 5 and 6
8 Synthesis - Identify critical drivers – highly uncertain and highly important drivers
Plenary, prioritization of 3-4 critical drivers identified by groups in terms of: 1) the degree of importance to the focal issue/question; 2) the degree of uncertainty surrounding drives. These prioritized drivers will compose the axes to develop scenarios.
Groups’ graph on uncertainty x importance
9 Scenario frameworks Creation of scenario matrix to explore four possible scenarios for the future. Trial and error process testing various combinations of critical drivers. Identify and name possible scenarios.
Scenario Matrix (axes)
10 Report back from the different groups Report on serial 9
11 Next steps and Wrap-up
Contacts for further information:
David Wilson President CDLA [email protected] 0409 927 179
Professor Darryl Low-Choy Griffith University School of EnvironmentUrban Research Program [email protected]
Dr. Silvia Serrao-Neumann Research Fellow CRC Water Sensitive Cities Urban Research Program Griffith UniversityT: (07) 373 55275 F: (07) 373 54026 M: 0410 506 282 E: [email protected]
Scenario Planning
Scenario planning creates possible futures to inform
present decision-making. It is used to develop a science
based decision-making framework in the face of high
uncertainty and low controllability of future events. This
involves the employment of a systematic approach for the
development and testing of plans, strategies and policies
in an uncertain environment through the creation of
possible futures to test them in. Scenarios consider likely
future trends, uncertainties and possible shocks and
surprises. They involve the systematic exploration and
description of the range of ways in which uncertainties
could be played out and their likely impacts on society and
the landscape
Draft Vision
Lake Conjola District will continue to be acclaimed by its
natural beauty. It will become an inspirational model of a
community living and working together to adapt and
respond to natural hazards and reach common and
sustainable solutions which protect and conserve the
environment and the lake for future generations.
The District’s congenial character is retained within the
footprint of the existing settlements to serve the needs of
residents and visitors within the area’s sustainable limits.
