FIDIC GAMA African ConferenceRyan Lewis, PrEng
10 May 2017
Connecting Communities through Port and Rail Planning
CONNECTING COMMUNITIES THROUGH PORTS AND RAIL
Outline
Transnet SOC Limited
Integration and Connecting Africa
Long term planning at Transnet
o Freight forecasting
o Rail planning
o Port planning
Transnet’s role beyond South Africa
Connecting communities
TRANSNET SOC LIMITED – FIVE OPERATING DIVISIONS
• 16 Cargo Terminals operating across 7 South African ports
• 8 Commercial ports along 2 798 km of coastline
• 20 500 km of railway track
• +220 million tons of freight
• General freight & 2 heavy haul export lines
• (Transnet Engineering)
• Manufacturing & maintenance of rolling stock
• Research and Development
• AU Centre of Excellence for rolling stock
• 3 000 km of pipelines
• 18 billion litres of petroleum products and gas
• R300 billion of capital investments over 7 years
• CSI in Education, Health, Sport, Arts & Agriculture
Transnet Pipelines
Transnet Freight Rail
Transnet Port
Terminals
Transnet National Ports
Authority
PipelinesRailPorts
2015/16 Financials: Revenue US$4.4bn – EBITA US$1.9bn – Total Assets US$25.4bn – Capex US$2.1bn – Gearing 43.1%
Transnet Advanced
Manufacturing
CONNECTING AFRICA – PORT AND RAIL INFRASTRUCTURE
Integrated development enables: Connected and efficient logistics
corridors Economically active regional
communities A vibrant, borderless regional economy Encourages regional specialisation Stimulates economic activity and growth Catalyst for Africa’s growth
KEY PARTNERSHIPS TO SUPPORT CONNECTIVITY ON THE CONTINENT
2. Railway Rolling Stock & InfrastructureRenewal
3. Road Partners
4. Terminal and Warehousing facilities
1. Ports to improve Trade
Regional Focus 1
2
3
4
5
5. Construction
66. Advanced Manufacturing
TRANSNET OPERATES AN INTEGRATED LOGISTICS NETWORK
6
7. SaldanhaBulk (export iron
ore),breakbulk
6. Cape TownContainers, breakbulk
4. NgquraContainers
3. East LondonContainers, breakbulk, agri‐Bulk, automotives
5. Port ElizabethContainers, breakbulk, bulk, automotivesWESTERN CAPE PORTS WESTERN CAPE PORTS
EASTERN CAPE PORTSEASTERN CAPE PORTS
KZN PORTS KZN PORTS
• 20,500 Km rail network
• 226 million tons of freight p.a.
• 4.6 million TEUs p.a.
• 18 Billion litres of petroleum
1. Richards BayBulk (export coal, magnetite, chrome), breakbulk
2. DurbanContainers, breakbulk, agri‐bulk, automotives
7
LONG TERM PLANNING AT TRANSNET
Operational Planning:Where: Operating DivisionsWhat: Operational Plans and SchedulesPurpose: Resource allocation & Operational enablementTimescale: Day-, week- , month- , months ahead
Business Planning:Where: Operating Divisions / Business SectorsWhat: Business Plans, Operating Division Strategic PlansPurpose: Resource Planning & Strategic EnablementTimescale: 1 to 7 year rolling
Corporate Strategic Planning:Where: ODs and Corporate CentreWhat: MDS / Corporate Plan Purpose: Strategic Target Setting, Integration & FundingTimescale: 5 - 10 years
Level 3
Long Term Planning:Where: Transnet-wide / Transportation sectorWhat: LTPF (Long Term Planning Framework)Purpose: Long Term Capacity Development FrameworksTimescale: 30 years
Level 2
National Planning & Policy:Where: National GovernmentWhat: New Growth Path, NDP, PICC / SIPsPurpose: Developmental Strategies and PoliciesTimescale: 10 - 50 years
Level 1
Level 5Transnet integrates with five complementary
planning layers, each having a specific purpose.
Transnet’s annual Long Term Planning Framework (LTPF) is an important link in all national and strategic planning in South Africa and Internationally.
Level 4
The LTPF is compiled and updated annually and an Executive Summary is published for internal and external distribution.
www.transnet.net/BusinessWithUs/Pages/LTPF.aspx
30 YEAR FREIGHT DEMAND – HOW IT IS DEVELOPED
INPUTS
ENERGY DEMAND MODEL
Transnet Energy Demand for 30 years
ROLLING STOCK MODEL
Fleet requirements for 30 years
FREIGHT DEMAND MODEL (FDM)Production and consumption of commodities & growth forecasts for 30 years (SA and SADC)
TRANSPORTATION MODEL (TTM)
Gravity Flow Model to route demand onto the network: ports, pipelines, surface, etc.
LIQUID FUELS & GAS MODEL (LFGM)
Supply and Demand Flows for 30 years
MACRO-ECONOMIC MODELLING & FORECASTING
GDP growth rates, sector analysis, population growth, investment, etc.
MARKET INTELLIGENCE & RESEARCH
Mining sector
MARKET SHARE MODEL (MSM)Determines RAM (rail addressable
market) and set road to rail targets
CONTAINER DEMAND FORECAST MODEL (CDFM)Converting demand to 9 container
typologies
TRANSNETFREIGHT DEMAND
Demand Book
TRACK CAPACITY
MODEL LTPF 30 years
PROCESSING& ANALSYSIS
OUTPUTS
Forecast Input Report
FREIGHT FLOWS OVER 30 YEARS
2016 2047
• Total freight on the South African surface is expected to increase by 159%. • Flows through the port system is expected in increase by 133%• Cross‐border traffic by 128%
The resultant freight flows on the surface will densify significantly as illustrated below:
AFRICA FREIGHT FORECAST
African Freight Demand Model generates surface flows for 17 sub‐Saharan countries
Provides port forecasts for 48 ports for bulk volumes and containers
66 commodities are included in the demand model
57 districts are modelled
AFRICA FREIGHT FORECAST
2017
2044
2047
RAIL CAPACITY CREATION PRINCIPLES
• New track gauge standards• Axle loading upgrades• Speed standards• New vehicle gauge standards
• Additional passing loops• Track realignment• Extension of crossing loops• Electrification
• Advanced braking systems• In-cab signalling• Distributed power• New locomotive designs
• Longer trains• Better planning• Maintenance• Reliability
Impact
Capacity solution space
Bottom‐up solutions are the most affordable and provide the best fit to existing systemsConsider the operational improvements prior to implementation of major and costly new infrastructure solutions
Quantum infrastructure
Quick changeLow cost
Massive investmentExtensive disruption or incompatibility
New wave of competitiveness
Expensive investmentsModerate disruption
Long lead timesStep‐up capacity
Incremental capacity Moderate and direct cost
Incrementalinfrastructure
Equipment and technology
Operational discipline and redesign
1
2
3
4
PORT PLANNING PRINCIPLES
Long Term Planning
Framework
Capacity Planning
Demand
Integration
Long Term PlanningIntegrate and align port and rail capacity
planning
Maintain flexibility to respond to changing technological and economic conditions
Respond to environmental opportunities andconstraints
Capacity PlanningImprove infrastructural and operational
efficiencyMaximize port zone functions
Develop back‐of‐port logistics areas to increase port capacity
IntegrationDevelop regional integration
Port system‐wide capital investmentAlign with planning initiatives of key
stakeholders
TRANSNET’S MANDATE BEYOND SOUTH AFRICA
1
Grow Transnet footprint in the region
Pursue options to invest in port, rail and pipeline operating concessions
Transnet International Holdings established
Focus on port and rail alliances, coastal shipping market growth and linkages with rail corridors
Focus on Maputo, North‐South and East‐West Corridors
Set up “Joint Operating Centres” and inter‐rail agreements to improve corridor efficiency
Transnet International Strategy
Transnet leading logistics service
provider in Africa and the Middle East
2
3
4 Position Transnet Advanced Manufacturing (Transnet Engineering) as preferred OEM for Africa
Launch the “Trans‐Africa” locomotive
CONNECTING COMMUNITIES – PORT AND RAIL 30 YEAR EXPANSION
2017 2047
CONNECTING COMMUNITIES THROUGH PORT AND RAIL
Economic growth
Job creation opportunities
Access to technology
Business development
Access to health/social services
Access to education and
training
Opportunities for communities
to travel within Africa and
beyond
CONCLUSION – COOPERATION AND COLLABORATION
Cooperation An efficient, connected regional rail
network Seamless border processes Standardised operating processes Standardised training
Collaboration Major Project Planning & Implementation Aligned infrastructure investment and
development priorities Value Chain focus Partnerships with road
required to deliver superior door to door logistics
Technology & Systems for Road‐Rail integration and Intermodalism
The Possibilities are AliveAfrica needs to work
together to realise them
Thank You
Ryan LewisPlanning SpecialistFramework and Capacity PlanningTransnet Group [email protected]+27 84 751 7634
Imran KarimExecutive ManagerFramework and Capacity PlanningTransnet Group [email protected]+27 83 265 7869