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Consequences of climate change on food security in Africa
Ruth Haug
Noragric/UMB
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How bad is the world food security situation?Today: About 1 billion foor insecure
people (Almost 6 billion are not hungry)
Future: How to feed 9 billions in 2050? - Is it possible?
Food security drivers:
– Climate change: decreased production, misguided policies?
– Food governance/Food prices
– Scarcity: Land, water, food scarcity
– Bio-economy: Bioproduction, energy, biofuel
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Who is affected by hunger?
Source: UN Millennium Project, Hunger Task Force 2005Source: UN Millennium Project, Hunger Task Force 2005
Land less, rural 20%
Urban poor20%
Small Farmers50%
Fishers, herders 10%
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DETTE E
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Food Price Indices
December 2010
FAO Food Price Index Data
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World cereal prices 2007-09 (FAO, 2009)
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ProductionProd.failureDroughtDiet changesBiofuelsHigh oil pricesLow productivity
AfricaClimate change
Non-productionSpeculationsPolicy failureTrade
liberalizationCompanies profitStructural injustice
Food price crisis 2007/08: Explanations
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2010 global cereal production 2 239 million tons, 1 % lower than 2009 and the third largest crop ever
The 2010 cereal production and large carry-over stocks, should be adequate to cover world cereal utilization in 2010/11.
The world cereal stocks-to-use ratio at the end of marketing year 2010/11 will decline to 23 percent, still above the 19.6 percent low level registered in the 2007/08 food crisis period.
Food Outlook 2010 (Crop prospects and food situation,
FAO, September 2010)
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In developing countries, outlook for 2010 cereal crops is favorable. Good harvests are anticipated in Eastern&Western Africa. Record cereals crops are anticipated in China and India.
Despite lower import volumes in 2010/11, the cereal import bill for LIFDC, is forecast to increase, as a result of higher international cereal prices.
30 countries are in need of assistance as a result of crop failures, conflict, natural disasters, and high domestic food prices.
Food outlook cont.
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Food insecurity will increase: 2 degrees warmer world: + 100-400 million hungry people (World Bank,
2009)
Crops will decrease (African countries: 10-30%, Cline 2007)
Increased competition over land and water (FAO)
Increase food prices in 2050 by 90% for wheat, 12% for rice and 35% for maize (IFPRI, 2009)
Policy measures (Do no harm?): Agroinvestment & land grabbing, biofuel, REDD: Marginalization of poor people
Poor people will be hardest hit by climate change (Vulnerability, women)
Food security and climate change
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FAO: Should be possible to meet future food/feed demand within land/water resources
Prerequisites for global food security
– Investment, technology change & productivity growth, trade, markets & support to farmers
Risks and challenges
– Hunger in spite of adequate overall supply, Climate change, Biofuels
Land reserves: 70 million ha or 5% expansion
Intensification: 90% of growth in crop production will come from intenfication
Sufficient water at global level: Uneven distributed, water scarcity many places
Agrobiodiversity: gene pool diminishing
How to feed the world in 2050 (FAO, 2009)
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Vulnerability assessment – understanding the problem
Policy that facilitates change guiding policy on carbon markets
Communication: From knowledge to action Climate risk management (CRM) insurance, drought monitoring
Better use of water water harvesting, drip irrigation, using waste water, watershed
Crops for uncertain future drought tolerant maize, flood tolerant rice
Sustainable soil management: conservation agriculture, ecofarming
Managing changing pests and diseases Livestock systems, fisheries & aquaculture Diversifying
livelihoods with aquaculture, fodder banks, replanting rangelands, diversifying dairy products
Forests & forest communities agroforestry, forest gardens
CGIAR Climate change, Agriculture and Food Security Research Programme
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FAO: Reducing hunger through Climate smart agriculture
Boosting investment in developing world agriculture is necessary not only to reduce current levels of world hunger but to safeguard future world food supplies against the impacts of climate change, FAO Director-General Jacques Diouf, Cancun, Mexico.
"By climate smart”, FAO mean agriculture that sustainably increases productivity and resilience to environmental pressures, while at the same time reduces greenhouse gas emissions or removes them from the atmosphere.
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Consequences of CC on FS
– Disaster and/or Opportunity?
How to ensure food security and climate friendly ag?
– Good governance of food systems
– Poverty friendly Agro-investment
– Job creation, rural diversification, transformation
– Social protection, insurance
– Managing climate risk – robust systems
– Managing Scarcity: Land, water, policy measures
– Develop a conducive Bio-economy (energy, biofuel)
Conclusion
