Consideration of Climate Dynamics in Integrated ... · Technology TOD Pedestrian friendly urban...

Consideration of Climate Dynamics Consideration of Climate Dynamics in Integrated Development Planningin Integrated Development Planning

Yoshitsugu HayashiDirector, International Research Center

for Sustainable Transport and Cities, Nagoya University

Chair, Scientific Committee of WCTRS(World Conference on Transport Research Society)

11.. Climate Dynamics and Climate Dynamics and Integrated DevelopmentIntegrated Development

Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya Uni29 May 2013 UNCRD 2

Climate Dynamics and Counter-Strategies

Environment（Climate Change）

Environment（Climate Change）

Society(Vulnerable）

Society(Vulnerable）

Economy（No-

Growth）

Economy（No-

Growth）

Weakened Economic PotentialWeakened Economic Potential

Less Investmentfor Mitigation

Less Investmentfor Mitigation

Land UseAdaptationLand UseAdaptation

Change inLife style

Change inLife style

ReducingDamages, Burdens

ReducingDamages, Burdens

Integrated Development

Smart Growth / Smart Shrink

Integrated Development

Smart Growth / Smart Shrink

IncreasedRisk

IncreasedRisk

3Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya Uni29 May 2013 UNCRD

1/2.04 1/2.13 1/1.28

Germany

1/1.48 1/2.14 1/1.04Japan

1950 2000 2050

1/1.63 1/2.15 1/1.56China

Korea 1/1.24 1/2.55 1/1.20

1/1.4

1900AgingAging （（Growth Growth Maturity Maturity ShrinkShrink））

429 May 2013 UNCRD Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya Uni

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 50,000

China

India

Korea, Rep

United Kingdom

United States

Viet Nam

Thailand

Japan

Germany

Developed countriesDeveloping Asia

Tota

l To

tal b

irth

birth

rate

rate

GDP per capita [US $]GDP per capita [US $]

Yoshitsugu Hayashi,

Nagoya Uni

5Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University

Indonesia

29 May 2013 UNCRD

• Rapid Growth in Asian Developing Countries– Rich people with poor infrastructure

• Westernization of Society in Asian Developing Countries

– Nuclear Family, Urban Sprawl with Motorisation– Aging, Recession & Unemployment

• Vulnerability of Society Difficulty in Adaptation– Poverty– Aging Less Potential Economic Power

6

Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya Uni29 May 2013 UNCRD

Climate Change / Diastrophism

Lowering Birthrate / Ageing

Maturity and Recession of economy

Increasing Natural Disaster Risk

Difficulty Difficulty in Near Future Generation

Compact-Connected

Resilient Society

Maintain and improve the level of Maintain and improve the level of QOLQOL

Miss-match!

Redundancy

Land Use Infrastructure

Sm

art Shrink

higherhigher weaker

Recognising Nature Recognising Nature and Social Acceptabilityand Social Acceptability


Integration

Various Aspects of Integration (1)Various Aspects of Integration (1)

• Land use Transport– Catastrophic Congestion in 90’s Bangkok due to

excess dependence on road transport– Rail transit Revolution since 1999– Rail share shift from almost zero to 4% in 2011

(c.f. 50% in Tokyo Met., 10% in Greater London)• Infrastructure Land Use

– 1954 Flood in the Netherlands– 2011 East Japan Great Earthquake

• Integration of Strategies:Avoid Shift Improve

8


Various Aspects of Integration (2)Various Aspects of Integration (2)

• Watershed– Before urbanisation: Grandparents taught

grandchildren about local climate and culture– After urbanisation: Nuclear family+Motorisation

have dispersed the family and the community

• Population Decline– Low birth rate in most of East and Southeast Asia– “Growing Small” Cities and Regions to foresee the

future decline in population

9


2. Understanding Urbanization 2. Understanding Urbanization --Motorization nexusMotorization nexus


Lack of PublicLack of PublicTransportTransport

Lack of Lack of RoadRoad

Modal Shift Modal Shift to Carto Car

Average IncomeAverage IncomeIncrementIncrement

UrbanizationUrbanization Longer TripsLonger Trips

BottleneckBottleneckfor for

DevelopmentDevelopment

Local/GlobalLocal/GlobalProblemsProblems

Emission Rate

CO,NOCO,NOXX,PM,,; CO,PM,,; CO22

Excess Car Excess Car DemandDemand

Higher CostHigher Costof Infrastructureof Infrastructure

SupplySupply

Sprawl of Sprawl of BuiltBuilt--up Areaup Area

Higher EnergyHigher EnergyConsumptionConsumption

ENVIRONMENTENVIRONMENT

ECONOMYECONOMY

CongestionCongestion

EconomicEconomicGrowthGrowth

HigherHigherCarCar--OwnershipOwnership


School boy waiting for bus School boy waiting for bus at 4:30 am at 4:30 am

in Suburb of Bangkokin Suburb of Bangkok

Bangkok Post4 Sept 1993


Photo by Hayashi(1993)

Slower than walkers in Sukunvit Rd, Bangkok Slower than walkers in Sukunvit Rd, Bangkok Slower than walkers in Sukunvit Rd, Bangkok


Traffic Jam in Beijing (Chang`an Jie)Traffic Jam in Beijing (Chang`an Jie)


GDP per Capita US$ (1995)

Car

s p

er 1

,000

inha

bita

nts

London

TokyoBangkok

Seoul

Hong kong

Singapore (CA)

‘95

‘95

‘90

‘90‘90

‘95‘00

‘85

‘85‘80

‘80

‘95

‘95‘00

‘70

‘60

Nagoya

Shanghai

‘95

‘‘0202Beijing


2000

1980

200019951990

19851980

1980

2000

0

2

4

6

8

10

0 100 200 300 400 500

passenger car per 1000 people

leng

th o

f roa

d pe

r p. c

ar (m

/pas

seng

er c

ar) Nagoya

Bangkok

Tokyo

Passenger car per 1000 persons

Leng

th o

f roa

d pe

r car

(m

/ pa

ssen

ger c

ar)

London

1970

1980

1990


Greater London Tokyo Nagoya Bangkok

Met. Area

Energy consumptionSectional volume

Consumption RateSpeed

18.715.8

21.8

10.0

0.11 0.130.1

0.17

3630 29

54

196160

120

627

20

40

60

0.2

0.4

0.6

20

40

60

400

600(km/hr)(litre/km)

(‘000/12hr)(*TOE/km)


London

Tokyo Nagoya

Bangkok

0 50 km1910

1965

1985

Change in Built-up AreasChanges in BuiltChanges in Built--up Areasup Areas


Tokyomax. 1 5 , 4 0 0

Londonmax. 1 1 , 5 0 0

2 0 , 0 0 0

5 0

Nagoyamax. 1 7 , 1 0 0

Bangkokmax. 4 2 , 2 0 0

0

km

人/km2

Population Density (1988)Population Density (1988)


33. What will happen the next?. What will happen the next?


Billion V

ehicles

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 2045

Other AfricaSouth AfricaOther LABrazil

Middle EastIndiaOther AsiaChinaEastern EuropeAsian TERussiaKoreaJapanAustralia and NZOther OECD EuropeUKItalyGermanyFranceUSAMexicoCanada

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

1

18


Unit: 10,000UK Russia Canada

France Germany China USA

Spain Italy Korea JapanMexico

South AfricaIndia

Australia Brazil

①

②③

④

⑤

1,159

935870

Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya Uni22

Source: http://www.jama.or.jp/index.html29 May 2013 UNCRD

Unit: 10,000UK Russia Canada

France

Germany

China USA

Spain

Italy

Korea JapanMexico

South AfricaAustralia Brazil

③

②①

④

⑤

Yoshitsugu Hayashi,

Nagoya Uni

23Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University

India

Thailand Indonesi

a09

10

11

35

50

56

Source: http://www.jama.or.jp/index.html29 May 2013 UNCRD

Increasing Cars with Poor Infrastructure Increasing Cars with Poor Infrastructure in Asian Developing Countriesin Asian Developing Countries

• Skyrocketing Increase in Car Ownership (20 times in 2050)

• Less Power to Self-finance Railways in Mega-cities

• Increasing Mega-cities (50 or more in 2050) without Railway Systems– Catastrophic Congestion like 90’s Bangkok

Unacceptable Increase in CO2 from Urban Transport

24


44. Strategies for Solution and Finding . Strategies for Solution and Finding Integrated Policy/ Technological Integrated Policy/ Technological Instruments for Less Damages on Instruments for Less Damages on ClimateClimate


時間

Visioning Future Transport Systems with Key IndicatorsVisioning Future Transport Systems with Key Indicators

時間

GDP・・・

London

(2008)

TokyoReference

(2007)

Car Bus Rail Walk

CO2

1989 2005 2050

Car56％

Bus38％

Rail4％

Walk2％

Car43％Bus

41％

Walk16％

BAU

Leap-Frog

What are necessary policies to realize it?

What are necessary policies to realize it?

Avoid Unnecessary Travel

Shift to Low-Carbon Mode

Improve Transport Emission intensity

AVOID

SFHIT

IMPROVE

Ageing

Trip Frequency

Built-up Area Public Transport Network Traffic

Speed

Fossil Fuel

ShareRoad Network

Urban Compactnes

s

× ×

Travel Demand

Car Dependency

Technology(Travel Distance)

GDP GDP

(CO2 Emission Factor)

GDP

(Modal Split)＝

AVOIDAVOID SHIFTSHIFT IMPROVIMPROVEE

MitigationMitigation

Car Ownership

LEV Share

Dynamic Tracking of Transport Related Emission Dynamic Tracking of Transport Related Emission Mechanism Mechanism

2013/5/30 27

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000

ＤＩＤ人口密度(人/km2)

輸送

人km

あた

りSyLC

-C

O2(g

-C

O2/人

km

)

AGT

モノレール

GWB

BRT（20km/h以下）BRT（20km/h以上）

LRT（20km/h以下）

LRT（20km/h以上）

自動車(全国平均値)

バス（走行のみ）

鉄道（走行のみ）

鉄道（新規整備）

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000

ＤＩＤ人口密度(人/km2)

輸送

人km

あた

りSyLC

-C

O2(g

-C

O2/人

km

)

AGT

モノレール

GWB

BRT（20km/h以下）BRT（20km/h以上）

LRT（20km/h以下）

LRT（20km/h以上）

自動車(全国平均値)

バス（走行のみ）

鉄道（走行のみ）

鉄道（新規整備）

Monorail(under 20km/h)

(over 20km/h)

Population density in DID [person/km2]

(under 20km/h)(over 20km/h)

Sys

tem

Life

Cyc

le C

O2

[g-C

O2/p

asse

nger

-km

]

Railway(running only)

Railway(Life cycle)

Bus(running only)

Passenger car(running only)

Cars / existing railw

ayC

ars / existing railway

LRT/B

RT/existing railw

ayLR

T/BR

T/existing railway

LRT/B

RT

LRT/B

RT

LRT

LRT

Subw

ay/AG

T/Monorail

Subw

ay/AG

T/Monorail



Strategy

Instrument

Avoid Shift Improve

Reduce need totravel

Reduce car use

Improve alternative

modes

Improve road network

Improve vehicles and fuels

Technology TODPedestrian

friendly urban design

Rail/bus infrastructure IMTS LEV

Alternative fuel

Regulation

Compact city

Mix land use

Access permits

Bus/trampriorities TDM

Emission standardTop runnerprogram

Information Teleworking

Car sharingAwareness campaign

Bus location system

Eco-driveIT/ITS

IT / ITS

EconomyLocation

al SubsidyFuel tax

Road pricing

Rail/bus fare Road pricingLEV subsidy

LEV preferential tax

LEV subsidyLEV

preferential tax

Innovation: JapanGreening Taxation

Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya Uni

29 May 2013 UNCRD

Top Runner Program with vehiclesTop Runner Program with vehicles List of the Specified List of the Specified 21 Appliances 21 Appliances

Passenger VehiclesFreight VehiclesAir ConditionersElectric RefrigeratorsElectric FreezersElectric Rice CookersMicrowave OvensFluorescent LightsElectric Toilet SeatsTV Sets (CRT, LCD, Plasma)Video Cassette RecordersDVD RecordersComputersMagnetic Disk UnitsCopying MachinesSpace HeatersGas Cooking AppliancesGas Water HeatersOil Water HeatersVending MachinesTransformers

at the time of standards establishment

Target year

19km/L

18km/L

17km/L

15km/L15km/L

14km/L

13km/L

12km/L

16

Fuel Efficiency (km/L)

target value

Weighted average value for each product category


Strategy

Instrument

Avoid Shift Improve

Reduce need totravel

Reduce car use

Improve alternative

modes

Improve road network

Improve vehicles and fuels

Technology TODPedestrian

friendly urban design

Rail/bus infrastructure IMTS LEV

Alternative fuel

Regulation

Compact city

Mix land use

Access permits

Bus/trampriorities TDM

Emission standardTop runnerprogram

Information Teleworking

Car sharingAwareness campaign

Bus location system

Eco-driveIT/ITS

IT / ITS

EconomyLocation

al SubsidyFuel tax

Road pricing

Rail/bus fare Road pricingLEV subsidy

LEV preferential tax

Emission StandardTop Runner Program

Innovation: JapanTop Runner Program

Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya Uni

29 May 2013 UNCRD

Fueleconomy[km/l]

Observed Estimation

Sales base

Real running

EV

HV

NGV

LPG

Methanol

Ownership base

Greening taxation

Greening taxation

Methanol‐fueled vehicleLPG‐fueled vehicleNatural gas vehicleHybrid vehicleElectrical vehicle

Year

No. of vehicles

Top RunnerProgram

Top RunnerProgram

Yoshitsugu Hayashi,

Nagoya Uni

Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University29 May 2013 UNCRD

Year & Month

Domestic sales of new cars (Toyota, prius) Subsidy

start


44. Levels of Railway Development. Levels of Railway Development


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 45000

Length (p

ercent from

2005

levels)

GDP per capita

Tokyo

Road

Rail

20052000

19851980

1975197019651960

18721960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1990

2000

Paved Road

Rail

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000

Length (p

ercent from

2008

levels)

GDP per capita

Beijing

Road

Rail

20092006

2005

1997

1978

19781986‐1991

1992‐1998

2002

Paved Road

Rail

0

20

40

60

80

100

0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000

Length (p

ercent from

2005

levels)

GDP per capita

Shanghai

road

rail

Paved Road

Rail

2007

2006

2006

2003

2003

2000

1997

20001993

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 70000

Length (p

ercent from

2005

levels)

GDP per capita

Singapore

road

rail

Paved Road

Rail

2009

1990

19902003

2001

1992

1995

Which is more priority, Rail or Road ?Which is more priority, Rail or Road ?


Cartraveltime

Road construction&operationcost

Roadtrafficvolume Rail

passengervolume

Railtraveltime

Rail construction &operationcost

SRo1

SRo1

SRo2

SRo2

SRa1

SRa1

SRa2

SRa2

DRo1

DRo1

DRo2*

DRo2*

DRa1

DRa1

tRo1

tRo2

tRo2*

CRo2*

CRo1

CRo2 CRa

2

CRa1

Demand level

Supply level

VRa1 VRa

2

Construction cost

Construction costWidening cost

Policy A Road widening

Policy B Track widening

ERo2*

VRo2* VRo

1* VRo2

ERo2

ERo1

ERa1

ERa2

Cartraveltime

Road construction&operationcost

Roadtrafficvolume Rail

passengervolume

Railtraveltime

Rail construction &operationcost

SRo1

SRo1

SRo2

SRo2

SRa1

SRa1

SRa2

SRa2

DRo1

DRo1

DRo2*

DRo2*

DRa1

DRa1

tRo1

tRo2

tRo2*

CRo2*

CRo1

CRo2 CRa

2

CRa1

Demand level

Supply level

VRa1 VRa

2

Construction cost

Construction costWidening cost


Policy B Track widening

ERo2*

VRo2* VRo

1* VRo2

ERo2

ERo1

ERa1

ERa2

Car travel time

Construction cost

Widening cost

Road construction & operation cost

Rail travel

time

Road Traffic Volume

Construction cost

Rail passenger volume

Rail construction & operation cost

Demand level


Policy A Track widening

Supply level

SRo2

Policy A

Policy A

Demand level

Supply level

DRo1

ERo2

DRo2+

SRo1

DRo1

DRo2+

EERo1

tRo1

tRo2

tRo2+

SRo1

SRo2

ERoERo2+

VRo2+ VRo

1+ VRo2

CRo2+

CRo1

CRo2

CRa1CRa1

CRa2

DRa1 SRa

1

CRaSRa

1

SRa2

SRa2

DRa1

VRa1 VRa

2

CCERa1

C ERa2


38

Extent of innerExtent of inner--city road congestion city road congestion due to unseamless rail transportdue to unseamless rail transport

((Tokyo) Tokyo) (Seoul(Seoul) ) (Shanghai)(Shanghai)TerritoryTerritory: : 621 621 vs.vs. 606 606 vs. vs. 600 km600 km2 2

PopulationPopulation: : 8.38.3 vs. vs. 9.99.9 vs. vs. 1.0 1.0 millionmillionSubwaySubway: : 286 286 vs. vs. 280280 vs. vs. 420 km420 km

Road Congestion in inner areas: Road Congestion in inner areas: Tokyo << Seoul Tokyo << Seoul Why ??Why ??


SeoulTokyo

5km

10km

15km

5km

10km

15km

Urban Railway NetworkUrban Railway Network

Tokyo SeoulTotal Line Length 2,313 476 km

City 292 338 km Hinterland 2,021 138 km

© Y. Hayashi & S.Lee3929 May 2013 UNCRD Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya Uni

5km

10km

15km

Shanghai

Urban Railway NetworkUrban Railway Network

Tokyo Seoul Shanghai Total Line Length 2,313 476 km 729km

City 292 338 km 420kmHinterland 2,021 138 km 309km


SA Express (4-car train) SA City Line (3-car train)

Bangkok Airport Link: Rolling Stock

The trains fleets made by Siemens in Krefeld, GermanySource: Dr. Krit, State Railways of thailand

ARLEX routeARLEX route• Double Track

• 22 Kilometer length of all extension• Elevated Structure 18.3 Km. Length

• Underground Structure 3.5 Km.length

Source: Dr. Krit, State Railways of thailand

Total Track length ( double Track)

approx. 28.8 km. (thereof ~ 27 km. elevated)

Track Gauge Standard Gauge (1.435)

Number of Stations 3 Express Stations

8 City Line Stations

Maximum Speed Main Line: 160 km/h

Trip TimeFor MAS ‐ Express (06:00 ‐ 24:00 hours) running time 15 min.

For PTH ‐ Express (06:00 ‐ 24:00 hours) running time 17 min.

For City Line (06:00 ‐ 24:00 hours) running time 30 min.

Traction Power Supply 25 kV AC, Overhead Catenary System

System Overview

Overview ARL system – Key Operating Data


City Line Passenger

ส รุ ป จํ า น ว น เ งิ น ร า ย ไ ด แ ล ะย อ ด ผู โ ด ย ส า ร (ร า ย ง า น เ บื้ อ ง ต น ก อ น ผ า น ก า ร ๒๓ ม.ค. ๕๖Source: Dr. Krit, State Railways of thailand

Suvarnabhumi Airport Rail LinkBangkok Thailand

Yearly data 2011Ministry of Transportation, Thailand


55. Economic Development Stage. Economic Development Stageand Demographic Changeand Demographic Change


49

Change in Economic Growth？

0

20

40

60

80

100

1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050年

１９５0年を１とした場合の数値

GDP(nominal)

GDP()

x１.64（+1%per

annum）

x75（+9%per

annum）

(1950=1)


1840(UK)

Time spent

Time

40

80

Lesure

School Labour

Lerning

1995(Japan)

1965(Japan)

2000（UK）

0

0

Age

160 years30 years

Change in Activity Time

LegendLeisure

LearningLabourSchool

Non-working

Non-working

Economy Ecology

＜Domestic＞＜Int’l＞Low birth rate Growth of AsiaAging GlobalizationIT IT

【Goal】【Endogenous Condition 】Higher ＱＯＬ

51Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya Uni

A. Economic Opportunity

B. Living & CulturalOpportunity

C. Amenity D. Safety& Security・

E. Burden on Environment

Opportunity for IncomeAccessibility to Agglomeration of Industries/Population

ServiceEducation/CultureHealth/Medical CareShopping/ServiceAmusement/Travel

HousingDistrict LandscapeNature of RegionIdentity of RegionComfortability / Punctuality of travelTime for leisure/cultural life

Risk of Natural disasterRisk of Building / Facility disasterRisk of Chemical PollutionRisk of Traffic AccidentResource PreservationCriminal Rate

Burden from IndustryBurden from DomesticBurden from TransportHeat IslandNoise

29 May 2013 UNCRD

66. Integrated Development Planning . Integrated Development Planning for Adaptation with Lower Risk Living for Adaptation with Lower Risk Living and Higher QOL and Higher QOL


53

Expansion of residences into

areas with high risk of disaster

Decline in inner-city

Lowering QOLIncreasing maintenance cost of unnecessary infrastructure

Deteriorating landscape and losing identity

As a result of interaction between motorization and sprawl


(Social Value) - (Social Hazard)= “Equivalent level of water”Social Value –

Hazard Level

家家家

家

家

家

Re-concentrate

Re-concentrate

To be maintained area

「Social-Hazard」＝To be evacuated＝High equivalent level of water

Retreat

To be evacuated area


55

CO2 Emission[t-CO2/year/person]

- 0.59

- 0.72

- 0.81

- 0.91

- 1.21

Scenario0

Night time POP densitywill be same as now

Scenario20

Retreat from Top 20％

Scenario 40


Scenario60


Scenario80


0 20 40 60 80

Retreated Areas


Concentrated Areas

凡例

25 - 440

450 - 940

950 - 1500

1600 - 2200

2300 - 4000

シナリオ0

凡例

25 - 460

470 - 1100

1200 - 1800

1900 - 2600

2700 - 4700

シナリオ40

凡例

25 - 310

320 - 1400

1500 - 3200

3300 - 4700

4800 - 9300

Scenario 80

• Disappearing of high density areas in scenarios

• Extremely high density in scenario 80

• Retreat from suburb will not be completed.

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

人口[人

]

人口密度[人/km2]

2005年

シナリオ0

シナリオ40

シナリオ80


0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000[人

] シナリオ20

シナリオ40

シナリオ60

シナリオ80


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

累積CO

2排出

量[t‐CO2/

人]

• Small differences between scenarios• More high rise concrete buildings will increase CO2 emissions.

+13%+7%+3%+1%

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

0.35

0.40

0.45

0.50

年間CO

2排出

量[t‐CO2/

年・人]

シナリオ0

シナリオ20

シナリオ40

シナリオ60

シナリオ80

Per Capita Annual Co2 EmissionPer Capita Annual Co2 Emission Accumulated CO2（2010～2050）Accumulated CO2（2010～2050）


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

累積CO

2排出

量[t‐CO2/

人]

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

年間CO

2排出

量[t‐CO2/

年・人]

シナリオ0

シナリオ20

シナリオ40

シナリオ60

シナリオ80

• Reduction effects by land use shrink is small.• CO2 from human activities increase according to floor space increase. But floor space will not change much due to smart shrink.

1.6%減1.4%減0.9%減0.4%減



0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

累積CO

2排出

量[t‐CO2/

人]

- 11%- 7%- 4%- 1%

• CO2 reduction due to decrease in car share du to smart shrink is 11%.

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

年間CO

2排出

量[t‐CO2/

年・人]

シナリオ0

シナリオ20

シナリオ40

シナリオ60

シナリオ80

60

- 21%



0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

累積CO

2排出

量[t‐CO2/

人]

住宅建設

民生

交通

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

年間CO

2排出

量[t‐CO2/

年・人]

シナリオ0

シナリオ20

シナリオ40

シナリオ60

シナリオ80

- 5%- 3%- 2%- 1%

-12%



0

0.005

0.01

0.015

0.02

0.025

１人

あた

り年

間市

街地

維持

費用

[百万

円／

年・人]

シナリオ0

シナリオ20

シナリオ40

シナリオ60

シナリオ800

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

１人

あた

り累

積市

街地

維持

費用

[百万

円]

25%減20%減5%減2%減

-37%

• Effect on reduction due to smart shrink is big



0.9

0.92

0.94

0.96

0.98

1

1.02

女30 女50 女70 男30 男50 男70

シナリオ0

シナリオ20

シナリオ40

シナリオ60

シナリオ80

63

• Scenario 80: +5% improvement in QOL• No remarkable improvement in aged women–City centre has high score of QOL

–Large improvement for aged men–Weight on flood risk is large in QOL function–Retreat is conducted from those areas with higher risks

Improvement




29 May 2013 UNCRD


29 May 2013 UNCRD


29 May 2013 UNCRD

PreparednessBalance of Self-help, Government-help, Co-Assistance

PeopleSociety’s choice

Awareness

Smart Shrink

Resilient Region and Society

External force of disaster(e.g. Tsunami)


Aging and financial difficulties(Social Tsunami)


Societal Objective

Characteristics of Society

Strategy and methodology

social consensus

Platform Infrastructure, Land use, Information

QOL Security

Resilience, RedundancyCompact‐Connected

wisdom / consensus





Societal Objective



social consensus

Platform



Awarenesswisdom /

consensus

Smart Shrink


Infrastructure, Land use, Information

QOL Security


１

Old levee (avoid)Old levee (avoid)

New levee(directly opposing)→broken

New levee(directly opposing)→broken

After Before

Source： MLIT, JAPAN

70

①Resilience①Resilience

Was levee in Taro, Miyako resilient?Was levee in Taro, Miyako resilient?


Eastern Sendai

Motorway

Eastern Sendai Motorway Eastern Sendai Motorway played a second leveeplayed a second levee

Source：Google Earth 71

Importance of infrastructure

Alignment

①Resilience①Resilience






Societal Objective



social consensus

Platform



Awareness

wisdom / consensus

Smart Shrink


Infrastructure, Land use, Information

QOL Security


3

73

Long term evacuationLong term evacuation（（case of move to higher groundcase of move to higher ground））

No victims

Tsunami flood area

Moved to a Hill

（参照）内閣府中央防災会議東北地方太平洋地震を教訓とした地震・津波対策に関する専門調査会第3回会合資料（2011.6.19）

Yoshihama, Minamisanriku

③Compact-Connected③Compact-Connected


74

Regeneration of social bonds(Shanghai)Regeneration of social bonds(Shanghai)③Compact-Connected③Compact-Connected


Date post:	06-Aug-2020
Category:	Documents
Upload:	others
View:	1 times
Download:	0 times

Consideration of Climate Dynamics in Integrated ... · Technology TOD Pedestrian friendly urban...

Documents