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Constructing Safety Indicators from Child Welfare Events and Trajectories
Fred Wulczyn, Bridgette Lery
Center for State Foster Care and Adoption Data
Chapin Hall Center for Children
University of Chicago
June 28, 2007
Questions
At what stage or stages of involvement in the child welfare system does disparity originate?
Do subsequent stages aggravate or mitigate the disparity?
Policy questionDo policies interact, contributing to disproportionality,
in the name of other positive outcomes?
Definitions
DisproportionalityOne population is out of proportion with respect to a
reference population
DisparityA lack of equality: likelihood of placement, likelihood of
exit, time to exit, and exit type
Trajectories
Trajectories are strings of events in temporal sequence. Captured events in this jurisdiction are:
• UNSUB• SUB• OPEN• PLACE• DISCH• CLOSE
Study Details
Children who first came into contact with the child welfare system in 2001 or 2002 in one jurisdiction
Followed each child for two years and captured the first four events
Captured race/ethnicity and age at first contact Calculated rates of contact at each level of system involvement Followed changes in the racial mix of the caseload at various
junctures including selected common trajectories such as: SUB/OPEN SUB/OPEN/PLACE SUB/SUB/SUB
Basic Data: System Involvement by Race and Age Group
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Age0
Ages1-5
Ages6-12
Ages13-17
Age0
Ages1-5
Ages6-12
Ages13-17
Age0
Ages1-5
Ages6-12
Ages13-17
Contact Rate Investigation Rate Substantiation Rate
Rate per 1,000African American
White
Basic Data: System Involvement Disparity
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
Age 0 Ages1-5
Ages6-12
Ages13-17
Age 0 Ages1-5
Ages6-12
Ages13-17
Age 0 Ages1-5
Ages6-12
Ages13-17
Contact Rate Investigation Rate Substantiation Rate
AA Rate/WH Rate
Caseload Mix at Initial System Contact
44%
28%24%
29%
56%
72%76%
71%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
OPEN SUB UNSUB ANY
African American
White
Distribution of First Contacts by Type and Race
24%
34%42%
12%
35%
53%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
OPEN SUB UNSUB
African American
White
Given a Case Opening, What is Likely to Happen Next?
65%
3%
26%
3% 3%2%
24%
3% 3%
68%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
CLOSE NO_SECOND PLACE SUB UNSUB
African American
White
Given a Substantiated Report, What is Likely to Happen Next?
43% 44%
8% 6%
57%
25%
9% 8%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
NO_SECOND OPEN SUB UNSUB
African American
White
Caseload Mix After Selected Pairs of Events
46%
40%44%
24%
35%
54%
60%56%
76%
65%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
OPEN/PLACE SUB/OPEN UNSUB/OPEN SUB/SUB ANY
African American
White
Caseload Mix After Selected Triplets of Events
40%
33%
20%
38%
60%
67%
80%
62%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
SUB/OPEN/PLACE UNSUB/SUB/OPEN SUB/SUB/SUB ANY
African American
White
Summary: Caseload Mix
29%
35%38%
71%
65%62%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Any First Event Any Two Events Any Three Events
African American
White
Babies vs. All: Caseload Mix at Initial Contact
44%
28%24%
29%
56%
72%76%
71%
52%
42%
30%
40%
48%
58%
70%
60%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
OPEN SUB UNSUB Any
Total African American
Total White
Babies African American
Babies White
Babies: Distribution of First Events by Type and Race
34% 36%30%
21%
33%
46%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
OPEN SUB UNSUB
African American
White
Babies: Given a Substantiated Report, What is Likely to Happen Next?
25%
61%
7% 7%
35%
46%
11%8%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
NO_SECOND OPEN SUB UNSUB
African American
White
Summary: Caseload Mix for Babies vs. All
29%
35%38%
71%
65%62%
40%45% 47%
60%55% 53%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Any First Event Any Two Events Any Three Events
Total African American
Total White
Babies African American
Babies White
Limitations
We have not taken into account the length of time between events.
We have not looked at maltreatment type.
We only studied one jurisdiction.
We have not subjected the data to multivariate models.
Case opening is not a very good proxy for whether or not services were delivered.
Conclusions
The source of disparity in this jurisdiction is primarily at the point of first contact.
African American children are more likely than white children to have a case opened at any point.
Disparity is greatest for infants.
Could the disparity in case openings suggest an effective protective process?
Implications
Given that infancy is a unique developmental stage, we need to adjust strategies for dealing with that population in developmentally appropriate ways.
We must be careful in evaluating our options for addressing disproportionality. Policies and practices narrowly aimed to reduce disparities may sabotage other, good outcomes.