CONSUMER CONFIDENCE - Nielsen · 2019-05-29 · 2012, confidence declined in 33 countries, remained...

2012 CONSUMER CONFIDENCE SERIES ! 4TH EDITION

C O N S U M E R C O N F I D E N C ECONCERNS AND SPENDING INTENTIONS AROUND THE WORLDQUARTER 4, 2012

2 QUARTER 4 2012 ! CONSUMER CONFIDENCE2 QUARTER 4 2012 " CONSUMER CONFIDENCE

WE START THE NEW YEAR WITH CAUTION Global consumer confidence indexed at 91 in Q4 2012, a one-point decline from Q3 2012, but an increase of two points from Q4 2011, according to consumer confidence findings from Nielsen, a leading global provider of information and insights into what consumers watch and buy. However, the relatively flat global average across the last year doesn’t tell the entire story. Across the 58 countries we measured in Q4 2012, confidence declined in 33 countries, remained flat in six countries, and increased in 19 countries relative to the prior quarter.

“Consumers around the world grappled with increasing economic concerns as the Euro zone crisis spread from troubled to core countries, the United States fiscal cliff threat loomed large, and China’s rising inflation sparked monetary policy action,” said Dr. Venkatesh Bala, chief economist at The Cambridge Group, a part of Nielsen. “Consumers are proceeding with caution in 2013 and showed renewed discretionary spending restraint in the last quarter amid further global economic and political uncertainty.”

GLOBALLYConsumer confidence declined one point to 91 in Q433 of 58 countries posted lower confidence levels than Q3Discretionary saving and spending patterns declined Recessionary mindset improved to 59%, down from 62% in Q3

REGIONALLYNorth Americans showed signs of economic improvementDeclining con!dence in Europe spread from troubled to core countriesDeveloping Asia-Pacific markets outperformed developed onesLatin Americans were confident for year aheadConfidence declined among Middle Easterners/Africans

3Copyright © 2013 The Nielsen Company

In the latest round of the survey, conducted November 10–27, 2012, consumer confidence rose in one-third (33%) of global markets measured by Nielsen, compared to a 52-percent increase in the previous quarter. Asia-Pacific (101) and Latin America (96) reported the only regional consumer confidence index increases in Q4, rising one and two points, respectively. Middle East/Africa declined two points to 96, North America dropped one point to 90, and Europe decreased three index points to 71, compared to Q3.

In key economies, confidence fell by one point in the United States (89), rose two points in China (108), increased one point in Germany (87) and remained flat in Japan (59). India reported the highest index at 121, a two point increase from Q3. Greece reported the lowest index at 35, an 11 point decline from Q3. Only ten of the 58 countries in the survey reported a confidence index above the baseline level of 100.

The Nielsen Global Survey of Consumer Confidence and Spending Intentions, established in 2005, measures consumer confidence, major concerns and spending intentions among more than 29,000 respondents with Internet access in 58 countries. Consumer confidence levels above and below a baseline of 100 indicate degrees of optimism and pessimism.

4 QUARTER 4 2012 ! CONSUMER CONFIDENCE

Q4 2012 CONSUMER CONFIDENCE

NO CHANGEDECREASE INCREASE

INDEX OF >101 INDICATES MORE OPTIMISM | INDEX OF <100 INDICATE MORE PESSIMISM

+1-2

+3-1

-1+1

+2

-2

0

+1

+1

-9

-3

+4

-3

+1

-1

-9

+3

+1+6

-3-1

+1+1

+2-7-4+2-3-7+2

-2

0-14

-3

-1

0

0

-6

-1

-4

-2

-8

+1

-3

0

-5

-9

-2

+1

-7-3

-20

-7

84 ! VENEZUELA

85 ! HO

NG KO

NG

86 ! AUSTRIA 86 ! M

EXICO 87 ! GERM

ANY 88 ! VIETNAM

HUNGARY ! 37

89 ! UNITED STATES

SOUTH KOREA ! 38

89 ! DENMARK

PORTUGAL ! 38

ITALY ! 39

90 ! ISRAEL

CROATIA ! 42

91 ! TURKEY

SPAIN ! 46

94 ! PAKISTAN

FRANCE ! 52

94 ! EGYPT

SLOVAKIA ! 57

94 ! NEW ZEALAND

JAPAN ! 59

95 ! CHILE

BULGARIA ! 61

95 ! SINGAPORE

ROMANIA ! 61

95 ! COLOMBIA

CZECH REPUBLIC ! 62 95 ! AUSTRALIAIRELAND ! 65

95 ! SWITZERLAND

TAIWAN ! 66

98 ! PERU

POLAND ! 68

100 ! CANADA

FINLAND ! 69

102 ! NORWAY

UKRAINE ! 69

103 ! MALAYSIA

LITHUANIA ! 72

108 ! CHINA

LATVIA ! 72

111 ! B

RAZIL

ESTONIA ! 72

112 ! S

AUDI ARABIA

BELGIU

M ! 74

113 ! U

NITED ARAB EMIRATES

ARGENTINA !

75

115 !

THAILA

ND

NETHER

LANDS

! 76

117 !

INDONES

IA

SOUT

H AF

RICA

! 76

119 !

PHILI

PPIN

ES

UNIT

ED K

INGD

OM

! 79

SWED

EN !

80RU

SSIA

! 84

-11

GREECE ! 35

+2

121

! INDI

A

INDE

X ! C

OUN

TRY

LESS

CONFIDENT MORE CONFIDENT

91 GLOBAL

AVERAGE( -1 change from Q3)

Source: Nielsen Global Survey of Consumer Confidence and Spending Intentions, Q4 2012

Based on respondents with online access only. China results reflect mixed methodology.


OUR OUTLOOK ON JOBS AND FINANCES HELD STEADY On a global basis, optimism among respondents for local job prospects held steady, with 45 percent anticipating that employment opportunities would be good or excellent in the coming year, no change from Q3 and an increase of three percentage points from Q4 2011. Fifty-three percent of respondents were confident in their personal finances, no change from the previous quarter and an increase of one point from Q4 2011.

Positive job prospects increased most among North American respondents, rising three percentage points regionally to 40 percent and among Asia-Pacific respondents, which increased two points from Q3 to 58 percent. The financial outlook in Q4 declined across every region except in Asia-Pacific, where sentiment increased two points from Q3 to 59 percent and in Latin America where sentiment increased one percentage point to 63 percent.

According to the latest survey, 63 percent of global respondents said it was not a good time to buy discretionary and non-discretionary items over the next 12 months, with spending restraint most pronounced in Europe at 73 percent, followed by Latin America (64%), North America (61%), Middle East/Africa (61%) and Asia-Pacific (59%).

“With continuing uncertainty concerning the United States debt ceiling and mandated spending cuts, along with as-yet tentative signs of economic stabilization in Europe, we can expect continued caution and moderate growth in the first quarter of 2013,” said Dr. Bala. “The best case scenario would be a satisfactory political resolution in the United States, along with confidence expanding gradually throughout Europe, which would lead to an acceleration of global growth through the end of 2013 and continuing into the next year, including within the export led economies in Asia. The major downside risk continues to be in Europe, where policy missteps within the European Union or within individual countries could damage fragile consumer confidence and take hold globally.”

53%OF GLOBAL RESPONDENTS BELIEVE PERSONAL FINANCES WILL BE GOOD/EXCELLENT OVER NEXT 12 MONTHS

INDEX OF >101 INDICATES MORE OPTIMISM | INDEX OF <100 INDICATE MORE PESSIMISM


45% (Q3)

53% (Q3)

ON A GLOBAL BASIS, OPTIMISM AMONG RESPONDENTS

FOR JOBS & FINANCES HELD STEADY



2012 TRENDGLOBAL AVERAGE

2012 TRENDGLOBAL AVERAGE

45% (Q4)

47% (Q2)

48% (Q1)

53% (Q4)

53% (Q2)

55% (Q1)

ASIA!PACIFIC " 58%LATIN AMERICA " 48%

MIDDLE EAST / AFRICA " 44%NORTH AMERICA " 40%

EUROPE " 22%

ASIA!PACIFIC " 59%LATIN AMERICA " 63%

MIDDLE EAST / AFRICA " 58%NORTH AMERICA " 51%

EUROPE " 36%

JOBPROSPECTS

!Q4"

PERSONALFINANCES

!Q4"

PERCENT OF RESPONDENTS WHO BELIEVE JOB PROSPECTS WILL BE GOOD/EXCELLENT OVER NEXT 12 MONTHS

PERCENT OF RESPONDENTS WHO BELIEVE PERSONAL FINANCES WILL BE GOOD/EXCELLENT OVER NEXT 12 MONTHS


CASH!STRAPPED, WE SAVED LESS AND SPENT LESSGlobal discretionary saving and spending patterns reported declines across most lifestyle areas in Q4. Putting spare cash into savings remained a priority among 45 percent of global respondents, but declined three percentage points from Q3. Paying off credit cards and debt decreased one point to 24 percent and saving for retirement fell one point to 10 percent, compared to Q3. Investing in stocks/mutual funds remained stable at 18 percent. Globally, 15 percent said they had no spare cash, an increase of one point from the previous quarter.

Spending intentions for holidays/vacations decreased two percentage points to 29 percent, while out-of-home entertainment and new technology spending plans declined one point each to 28 percent and 23 percent, respectively, compared to Q3. Thirty-one percent of global respondents indicated they bought new clothes and 19 percent said they spent on home improvements/decorating, no change from Q3.

North Americans and Latin Americans reported slight improvements in spending intentions for new clothes at 26 percent and 25 percent, respectively. Putting spare cash into savings also increased two percentage points to 37 percent in North America and one point to 28 percent in Latin America. More than one-quarter (26%) of North Americans said they had no spare cash, the highest of any region.

While respondents in Asia-Pacific remained the most prolific savers, saving intentions declined six percentage points to 58 percent in Q4. Investing intentions (29%), paying off debts (20%) and saving for retirement (12%) also declined. Spending intentions for holidays/vacations dropped four points to 36 percent, and new clothes (35%) and new technology (30%) declined one point each. Only eight percent of Asia-Pacific respondents reported having no spare cash.

Middle East/Africa respondents said they spent less on new clothes in Q4, declining three percentage points to 24 percent. Spending intention declines were also reported for new technology products (20%) and holidays/vacations (14%), but investment intentions increased three points to 12 percent.


In Europe, spending across all lifestyle areas declined from the previous quarter, with holidays/vacations declining most, from 28 percent in Q3 to 25 percent in Q4. Twenty-one percent of Europeans reported they have no spare cash.

HOW WE SPEND OUR SPARE CASH

Global discretionary saving and spending patterns declined across all lifestyle areas

Savings

New Clothes

Holidays/Vacations

Out-of-home entertainment

Paying off debts

New technology products

Home Improvements/Decorating

Investing in shares of stock/mutual funds

Retirement fund

I have no spare cash



Q1 2012

Q2 2012

Q3 2012

Q4 2012

50

45

3431

33

29

27

24

28

23

2219

2318

13

10

13

15

32

28


FEWER THOUGHT WE WERE IN A RECESSIONMore than half of global respondents (59%) said they were in a recession in Q4, an improvement from 62 percent the previous quarter and 64 percent for the same period in 2011. North America posted the most significant recessionary mindset decline, down six points from Q3 to 71 percent in Q4 2012.

“North America is slowly, but steadily heading in the right direction,” said Dr. Bala. “Compared to a year ago, North America showed progress towards recovery with a six point year-on-year consumer confidence increase, driven mainly by a three point increase in a positive job outlook to 40 percent in Q4. With continued weakness in Europe and uneven growth in Asia, it may well be that with a brighter job market, the United States serves as the critical engine of improved global economic activity in 2013.”

Less than half (48%) of Asia-Pacific respondents and half (50%) of Latin Americans said they were in a recession in Q4, a decline of four and three percentage points, respectively, compared to Q3. Three-quarters of Europeans remained mired in a recessionary point of view and 73 percent of Middle East/African respondents said they were in a recession, an increase of one percentage point from Q3.

Europeans were the most pessimistic about the economic future, with 64 percent believing the recession would live on for another 12 months, an increase of three points from the previous quarter. In North America, 55 percent did not have confidence the recession would be over in the year, which was an improvement from 58 percent in Q3. Forty percent of Asia-Pacific and Latin American respondents and 36 percent of Middle East/Africa respondents expected the recession to live on for another year.

DO YOU THINK YOUR COUNTRY IS IN

AN ECONOMIC RECESSION AT THE MOMENT?

PERCENT SAYING YES

Q3 2012Q4 2012

62%59%

GLOBAL AVERAGE

ASIA#PACIFIC

EUROPE

LATIN AMERICA

MIDDLE EAST / AFRICA

NORTH AMERICA

52%48%

75%75%

53%50%

72%73%

77%71%



Q1 2012

Q2 2012

Q3 2012

Q4 2012


OUR JOB CONCERNS RIVALED ECONOMIC FEARS While the economy was the biggest concern around the world a year ago, fears about job security were at parity in Q4, compared with the same period in 2011. Economic worries declined three percentage points globally to 15 percent in Q4 2012, compared to Q4 2011, while employment concerns held steady at 15 percent. Differences, however, prevailed by region.

Most notably, economic worries were still most prevalent among North American respondents (26%), which was double their concern over job security (13%). The opposite trend was reported among both Middle East/Africa and Latin American respondents where worries over employment status were most significant. Twenty-two percent of Middle East/Africa respondents said job security was the biggest concern in Q4, followed by fears over the economy (12%). In Latin America, job security worries (19%) were double those with economic concerns (10%).

Increasing food prices and utility bills were considered the biggest concerns among eight percent of global respondents each in Q4, rising one and two points, respectively, compared to the same period in 2011. Work/life balance concerns (9%) and health worries (7%) both declined by one percentage point from Q4 2011.

Less North American respondents were concerned about debt in Q4, declining six percentage points from the same period in 2011, while more Latin American respondents were worried about crime (14%), increasing five percentage points year-on-year. In Middle East/Africa, political concerns declined four points to eight percent.

15%15%

15%13%

13%15%

10%19%

12%22%

26%13%

GLOBAL AVERAGE

ASIA#PACIFIC

EUROPE

LATIN AMERICA

MIDDLE EAST / AFRICA

NORTH AMERICA

THE ECONOMY AND JOB SECURITY REMAIN TOP

WORRIES OVER THE NEXT SIX MONTHS

Q4 2012 PERCENTAGE

ECONOMYJOB SECURITY




NORTH AMERICANS SHOWED SIGNS OF ECONOMIC IMPROVEMENTConsumer confidence fell in North America by one index point to 90 in Q4, compared to Q3 2012. But while optimism for personal finances fell three points to 51 percent in Q4, job prospects increased three percentage points to 40 percent, compared to Q3. Consumer confidence in the United States decreased one index point in Q4 to 89 and increased one index point in Canada to a score of 100.

Seven-in-10 North Americans surveyed (71%) believed they were in a recession in Q4, which was an improvement from the previous quarter (77%). Of those respondents, more than half (55%) believed the recession would live on for another year, a six point improvement from the same period in 2011. The number of Americans who said they were in a recession fell from 81 percent in Q3 2012 to 74 percent in Q4.

10%

ECONOMYJOB SECURITY


“In the United States, while the labor market has continued to improve and gas prices have moderated, it was not enough to offset the uncertainty surrounding the fiscal cliff, the potential for rising taxes and the rhetoric around the potential for a subsequent recession during the end of 2013,” said James Russo, senior vice president, Global Consumer Insights, Nielsen.

“The stakes are high and consumers continue to be tuned into the economic climate as it remains the number one concern. However, a housing market recovery, of which there are initial promising signs, would go a long way to boost employment, consumer confidence and a much stronger Unites States growth trajectory. As we enter 2013, it is clear that consumers have not yet rebounded from the Great Recession, which began five years ago, but if investment in the labor market strengthens, the economy will rebound in the second half of the year. Until then, consumers remain in maintenance mode as uncertainty dominates the sentiment,” continued Russo.


Based on respondents with online access only.

MORE CANADIANS PLAN TO INVEST AND PAY DEBTS, WHILE

MORE AMERICANS PLAN TO SPEND ON CLOTHES, TECHNOLOGY AND ENTERTAINMENT

CANADA UNITED STATES

INVESTING

RETIREMENT FUND

PAYING DEBTS

SAVINGS

CLOTHES

TECHNOLOGYPRODUCTS

HOLIDAYS/VACATIONS

OUT!OF!HOMEENTERTAINMENT

HOME IMPROVEMENT/DECOR

27

18

21

14

20

2520

15

1717

SPENDING STRATEGIES

SAVING STRATEGIES

17%17%

14%21%

25%20%

15%20%

18%27%

13%10%

13%10%

44%30%

35%37%


DECLINING CONSUMER CONFIDENCE SPREAD THROUGHOUT EUROPEConsumer confidence fell in 20 of 29 European markets and 10 posted a confidence decline of six points or more since Q3. Norway was the only European market measured with a confidence reading above the 100 benchmark, reporting an index of 102. Eight of the 10 lowest confidence scores of 58 countries hailed from Europe, with Greece declining 11 points to 35, followed by Hungary (37) and the debt-burdened markets of Portugal (38), Italy (39), and Spain (46).


The sharpest European decline in Q4 was reported from Belgium, down 14 points to an index of 74. France and Switzerland declined nine points each to an index of 52 and 95, respectively. Only five European markets posted confidence increases in Q4; United Kingdom (+2), Germany (+1), Croatia (+1), Romania (+1), and Turkey (+1). Europeans’ outlook for personal finances, job prospects and immediate spending intentions all declined last quarter as regional economic and political outlooks deteriorated.

“The tentacles of the debt crisis reached beyond recession-gripped southern European nations and weakened confidence throughout much of the region,” said Dr. Bala. “Recovery hopes dimmed last quarter as countries in central, northern and eastern Europe were dragged into recession. However, signs of stabilization are evident, and if they continue, can enhance confidence and lead to brighter macroeconomic prospects later this year.”

“In Belgium, the drop in fourth quarter consumer confidence is a reflection of unemployment concerns as many companies are restructuring and downsizing,” said Jens Ohlig, managing director, Nielsen Benelux. “Optimism for local job prospects declined 14 points in Q4 to 19 percent and personal finances dropped three points to 45 percent, but the savings rate continues to be strong.”

“Greece is battered by five years of recession, which has caused endless social unrest as citizens are tired of the continued turmoil and seemingly perpetual crisis,” said Matina-Martha Bada, sub-regional leader, Nielsen Data Acquisition South East Europe. “During November 2012, uncertainty regarding crucial bailout funds needed to rescue Greece from solvency was coupled with a rise in unemployment and another round of austerity measures as economic turmoil and government spending continued to take their toll.”

“In France, the economic situation deteriorated in the fourth quarter as unemployment and purchasing power concerns continued to rise coupled with a collective scepticism over effective political actions,” said Laurent Zeller, group managing director, Nielsen France. “A gloomy outlook for 2013 is ahead as consumers have started new and cautious behaviour, reducing spending on fast-moving consumer goods, which have traditionally remained robust, even in down times.”

“German consumers are not letting the European debt crisis get in the way of their desire to buy,” said Ingo Schier, managing director, Nielsen Germany. “This development is likely to continue in 2013 as the government has reduced income taxes and statutory pension contributions. Additionally, positive forecasts for the development of employment, wages and prices are expected.”

CONSUMER CONFIDENCE FELL IN 20 / 29 EUROPEAN MARKETS

74 | Belgium

35 | Greece

95 | Switzerland

52 | France

62 | Czech Republic

86 | Austria

80 | Sweden

76 | Netherlands

39 | Italy

69 | Finland

57 | Slovakia

89 | Denmark

84 | Russia

72 | Estonia

61 | Bulgaria

38 | Portugal

65 | Ireland

46 | Spain

72 | Latvia

68 | Poland

120 | Norway

72 | Lithuania

69 | Ukraine

37 | Hungary

91 | Turkey

87 | Germany

61 | Romania

42 | Croatia

79 | United Kingdom

-14

-9

-9

-8

-7

-7

-7

-7

-6

-5

-3

-3

-3

-3

-3

-2

-2

-1

-1

0

0

0

0

+1

+1

+1

+1

+2

-11




DEVELOPING ASIA!PACIFIC MARKETS OUTPERFORMED DEVELOPED ONESConfidence fell in eight of 14 Asia-Pacific markets in Q4, compared to Q3 2012, with four-point declines in Hong Kong and Taiwan, but the region reported the highest consumer confidence scores overall. India topped the global list with an index of 121, a rise of two points from Q3, followed by the Philippines with an increase of one point to 119 and Indonesia, which declined two points to a score of 117. China increased two index points to a score of 108, while Thailand (115) and Malaysia (103) also scored above the baseline of 100. South Korea’s confidence index of 38 dropped two points from Q3, the lowest score in the region, followed by Japan, which held steady with an index of 59.


“Similar to Europe, we are seeing an increasingly polarized Asia-Pacific region,” said Dr. Bala. “On one hand, there are high population markets with a robust domestic consumption base, such as China, India and Indonesia, who have climbed out of a global recession and remained optimistic about the future. On the other hand, there are export-dependent developed markets, such as South Korea and Taiwan that are more exposed to precarious global economic conditions. Confidence in Hong Kong, the region’s financial center, has been hit hard as consumers feel particularly sensitive to the Euro zone crisis as well as any potential political and economic changes from elections and new leadership in the world’s biggest economies.”

“IN Q4, CHINA’S ECONOMY SHOWED POSITIVE SIGNS OF A REBOUND WITH BETTER"THAN"EXPECTED DATA FOR MANUFACTURING, EXPORTS AND INVESTMENT, WHICH LIFTED CONSUMERS’ OPTIMISM FOR JOB PROSPECTS AND PERSONAL FINANCES IN 2013,” SAID YAN XUAN, PRESIDENT, NIELSEN GREATER CHINA.

“While discretionary spending remained restrained across all lifestyle areas in Q4, Chinese consumers became less concerned for the economy,” continued Yan Xuan.

“The Indian consumer has picked up confidence and pace from the third quarter and comes back to lead the global index for the last quarter of 2012,” said Piyush Mathur, president, Nielsen India. “The resilience of Indian consumers in the continuing inflationary period is still apparent and they are being wooed by manufacturers and retailers who are now sensitized to their pressures. Another phenomenon that has also fed into the buoyancy and confidence are two growing shopper segments in the country, low-income value explorers and first-time modern trade shoppers, who are slated to add $3B USD to fast-moving consumer goods sales in India by 2015. Further, the aspirational Indian consumer is willing to upgrade products and they want to partake in the best the market has to offer, which is balanced by the value-conscious consumer as well.”


DEVELOPING MARKETS IN ASIA!PACIFIC

WERE MORE OPTIMISTIC THAN DEVELOPED ONES

103

100

95

95

94

85

66

59

38

121

119

117

115

108

88

SINGAPORE

AUSTRALIA

NEW ZEALAND

HONG KONG

TAIWAN

JAPAN

SOUTH KOREA

INDIA

PHILIPPINES

INDONESIA

THAILAND

CHINA

MALAYSIA

VIETNAM

101 AND HIGHERMORE OPTIMISM

100 AND LOWERMORE PESSIMISM

DEVELOPED DEVELOPING



Developed/developing countries based on IMF classification of a market’s economy as “advanced” or “developing”

DEVELOPED

DEVELOPING




LATIN AMERICANS WERE CONFIDENT FOR THE YEAR AHEADSix of seven Latin American countries measured reported consumer confidence increases in Q4 2012, compared to Q3. Brazil led the region with an index of 111, an increase of one point from Q3, followed by a one point increase in Peru (98). Colombia increased four index points to a score of 95 and Chile rose one point to 95, compared to Q3. Mexico and Venezuela increased by two points each to an index of 86 and 84, respectively. Argentina held steady in Q4 with a score of 75, the lowest index reported in the region.

“There are a variety of political, economic and social realities that are driving a positive dynamic in Latin America,” said Paola Fonseca, vice president, Strategy and Innovation, Nielsen Latin America. “As Brazil solidifies its position as the regional leader, Mexico’s new government is improving the economic perspective, and Colombia’s peace negotiations are generating an optimistic environment. All of these factors have combined to deliver good economic growth, which is elevating the region as a global player.”

“Brazil’s positive performance can be attributed to the strong internal market,” said Eduardo Ragasol, country manager, Nielsen Brazil. “The stable inflation rate continues as the center of the efforts of the Brazilian government. At the end of 2012, however, industrial production is experiencing a reduction and job numbers are starting to decrease, which will need to be carefully watched.”

“The political situation in Mexico is more certain, bringing more confidence to consumers,” said Germán Gutiérrez, country manager, Nielsen Mexico. “This, combined with an improved job market in the last quarter of 2012, contributes to improve the stability and confidence among Mexican consumers. Consumer packaged goods sales trends are also showing a positive development and the expectation is ongoing good performance in the coming months, but Mexico’s economy will be impacted by the evolution of the financial situation in Europe and the United States.”

SIX OF SEVEN LATIN AMERICAN COUNTRIES MEASURED CONSUMER

CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN Q4 2012

BRAZIL

PERU

COLOMBIA

MEXICO

VENEZUELA

ARGENTINA

CHILE

110111

9798

9195

9495

8486

8284

7575

Q3 2012Q4 2012


CONFIDENCE DECLINED AMONG MIDDLE EASTERNERS / AFRICANS Consumer confidence fell in four of six Middle East/Africa markets, compared to Q3. While United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia both declined by one index point each in Q4, compared to Q3, their confidence scores of 113 and 112, respectively, are still among the highest reported of 58 countries and above the baseline of 100. Pakistan’s consumer confidence increased by three points to an index of 94, compared to Q3, and Israel’s confidence jumped six points to 90. Egypt declined nine points in Q4 to 94 and South Africa dropped two points to a score of 76, compared to Q3.

Positive perceptions of local job prospects and the state of personal finances declined across the region, compared to Q3, with the exception of Israel, which reported increases in both metrics, and Pakistan, where positive employment sentiment jumped three percentage points to 38 percent in Q4, compared to Q3.

In Egypt, optimism for local job prospects weakened by nine points in Q4 to 50 percent and positive perceptions for personal finances dropped seven points to 57 percent, compared to Q3. Sixty-four percent of Egyptians believed that buying both discretionary and non-discretionary items over the next year would be restrained, an increase from 57 percent in Q3.

“The last two years were seesaw years when emotions and consumer sentiments in Egypt went up and down in reaction to the fast-changing political and economic landscape,” said Ram Mohan Rao, managing director, Nielsen Egypt. “The latest confidence drop in Q4 is an indication of how consumers are interpreting the recent tough economic steps the government is contemplating to implement for the long-term good of the economy. However, if people do not see any quick improvement in the economy, then it is possible that in the short term, consumer confidence will continue to slide.”

UNITED ARAB EMIRATES

SAUDI ARABIA

EGYPT

ISRAEL

PAKISTAN

SOUTH AFRICA

Q3 2012Q4 2012 CONSUMER CONFIDENCE

DECLINED IN 4/6 MIDDLE EAST/AFRICA MARKETS

Q3 2012Q4 2012

114113

113112

10394

8490

9194

7876


ABOUT THE NIELSEN GLOBAL SURVEY The Nielsen Global Survey of Consumer Confidence and Spending Intentions was conducted between November 10–27, 2012 and polled more than 29,000 online consumers in 58 countries throughout Asia-Pacific, Europe, Latin America, the Middle East, Africa and North America. The sample has quotas based on age and sex for each country based on their Internet users, and is weighted to be representative of Internet consumers and has a maximum margin of error of ±0.6%. This Nielsen survey is based on the behavior of respondents with online access only. Internet penetration rates vary by country. Nielsen uses a minimum reporting standard of 60 percent Internet penetration or 10M online population for survey inclusion. The China Consumer Confidence Index is compiled from a separate mixed methodology survey among 3,500 respondents in China. The Nielsen Global Survey, which includes the Global Consumer Confidence Index, was established in 2005.

ABOUT NIELSEN Nielsen Holdings N.V. (NYSE: NLSN) is a global information and measurement company with leading market positions in marketing and consumer information, television and other media measurement, online intelligence, mobile measurement, trade shows and related properties. Nielsen has a presence in approximately 100 countries, with headquarters in New York, USA and Diemen, the Netherlands.

For more information, visit www.nielsen.com.

Copyright © 2013 The Nielsen Company. All rights reserved. Nielsen and the Nielsen logo are trademarks or registered trademarks of CZT/ACN Trademarks, L.L.C. Other product and service names are trademarks or registered trademarks of their respective companies. 13/6005

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