CONSUMER CONFIDENCE - Vietnam Business€¦ · 2 QUARTER 4 2016 - GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE REPORT...

1Copyright © 2017 The Nielsen Company

CONSUMER CONFIDENCECONCERNS AND SPENDING INTENTIONS AROUND THE WORLD

QUARTER 4, 2016

2016 CONSUMER CONFIDENCE SERIES | 4TH EDITION

2 QUARTER 4 2016 - GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE REPORT2

• The global consumer confidence index was 101 in the fourth quarter, up three points from the first quarter of 2016.

• Forty-four of 63 markets finished the year with higher consumer confidence scores than they had at the start.

• In North America, confidence closed the year at a score of 120, driven by a high U.S. number.

• In Europe, consumer confidence improved in 25 of 34 measured markets from the first quarter to the fourth quarter, with the biggest increase over the year in the Netherlands (15 points).

• In Asia-Pacific, 10 of 14 markets finished 2016 with higher consumer confidence scores than at the start of the year, with the biggest increase in the Philippines (13 points).

• In Latin America, three of seven markets ended the year more confident than they started. Brazil was the biggest mover of the region, increasing 11 points from the first quarter to the fourth quarter.

• In the Africa/Middle East region, confidence declined five points from the first quarter to the fourth quarter, driven by double-digit drops in Egypt and Saudi Arabia.

Amid great political and economic change around the world, global

consumer confidence moved modestly in 2016, rising three points between

the first and fourth quarter to 101. Confidence scores in every region except

Africa/Middle East finished the year more strongly than they began. And

while quarter-on-quarter swings occurred in most markets, fourth-quarter

confidence scores increased from the first quarter of 2016 in 44 of the 63

markets measured in the online survey, including eight of the world’s top 10

economies (Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, India, U.K. and U.S.).

2016: AMID A YEAR OF GREAT CHANGE, CONSUMER CONFIDENCE FINISHED ON A HIGH NOTE IN MOST MARKETS

3Copyright © 2017 The Nielsen Company 3

North America saw the greatest change in 2016, with the index rising

12 points between the first and the fourth quarters to a score of 120. In

the U.S., consumer confidence increased 13 points in that time frame to

finish the year strong at 123, a remarkable result that we discuss in the

report. In Canada, confidence increased steadily every quarter in 2016,

rising from 93 in the first quarter to 98 in the fourth quarter.

Confidence in the Asia-Pacific region strengthened modestly in 2016,

rising three points between the first quarter and the fourth quarter to 111.

While fourth-quarter scores varied widely in the region, from a high of 136

in India to a low of 43 in South Korea, the majority of markets (10 of 14)

finished the year more optimistic than they started. The biggest increase

was in the Philippines, where confidence rose 13 points from the first

quarter to the fourth quarter. Sentiment declined slightly during the year

in three markets in the region, falling four points in Taiwan, two points

in Singapore and one point in South Korea. Confidence was flat in Japan

from the first quarter to the fourth quarter.

Confidence also increased modestly in Europe in 2016, rising from 78

in the first quarter to 81 in the fourth quarter. Scores increased in the

majority of countries in the region (25 of 34), with the biggest jumps

in the Netherlands (up 15 points to 100), Spain (up 12 points to 86),

Switzerland (up 11 points to 102), Sweden (up nine points to 95) and

Norway (up nine points to 87). Confidence declined in six countries

during the year, with the steepest declines in the Baltic states of Latvia

(down eight points), Lithuania (down five points) and Estonia (down two

points, as well as in Turkey (down six points).

In Latin America, confidence rose five points in 2016, from 78 in the

first quarter to 83 in the fourth quarter. Confidence in Brazil, the largest

economy in the region, rose 11 points to 85, and it increased seven points

in Colombia (to 90) and five points in Peru (96) from the start to the

end of 2016. Confidence in Venezuela declined three points from the

first quarter, finishing the year at 57, the lowest level recorded since the

country was added to the survey in 2008. In Mexico (at 86) and Argentina

(75), consumer confidence was flat from the start of the year.

Africa/Middle East was the only region where confidence declined from

the first quarter to the fourth quarter of 2016, dropping five points to

83, driven by double-digit declines in Egypt (down 14 points) and Saudi

Arabia (down 10). Nonetheless, while confidence fell in the fourth

quarter in the majority of markets in the region, sentiment still improved

modestly from the beginning of the year in four of six markets in the

region: United Arab Emirates (up four points), Pakistan (up two), South

Africa (up two) and Morocco (up one).

4 QUARTER 4 2016 - GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE REPORT

GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE SURVEY

63-COUNTRY THREE-MONTH TRENDQ4-2016 NIELSEN CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX*

The Nielsen Consumer Confidence Index measures perceptions of local

job prospects, personal finances and immediate-spending intentions.

Consumer confidence levels above and below a baseline of 100 indicate

degrees of optimism and pessimism, respectively. Within a country,

period-to-period movements of seven points or more are considered

statistically significant. At a global level, movements of two points

are statistically significant; at a regional level, three to four-point

movements are statistically significant. The index and other findings

related to consumer confidence are based on data from the Nielsen

Global Survey of Consumer Confidence and Spending Intentions.

Established in 2005, this survey measures consumer confidence,

major concerns and spending intentions among more than 30,000

respondents with internet access in 63 countries.

“The set of factors influencing confidence are multifaceted and go

beyond economics and business,” said Louise Keely, executive vice

president, Nielsen. “In 2016, there were political and social factors

that created uncertainty for consumers in many regions of the world.

Those factors died down somewhat at the end of the year, and average

confidence across regions rebounded a bit. There continues to be wide

variation in confidence across countries, as confidence is affected

more by local conditions than global ones.”

ABOUT THE GLOBAL SURVEY METHODOLOGY

The findings in this survey are based on an online methodology in 63 countries. While an online survey

methodology allows for tremendous scale and global reach, it provides a perspective only on the habits

of existing internet users, not total populations. In developing markets where online penetration is still

growing, audiences may be younger and more affluent than these countries’ general populations. Three

Sub-Saharan African countries (Ghana, Kenya and Nigeria) utilize a mobile survey methodology and are

not included in the global or Middle East/Africa averages discussed throughout this report. In addition,

survey responses are based on claimed behavior, rather than actual metered data. Cultural differences

in reporting sentiment are likely factors in the measurement of economic outlook across countries. The

reported results do not attempt to control or correct for these differences; therefore, caution should be

exercised when comparing across countries and regions, particularly across regional boundaries.


GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE SURVEY

63-COUNTRY THREE-MONTH TRENDQ4-2016 NIELSEN CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX*

*Survey is based on respondents with Internet access. China survey results reflect a mixed methodology. Index levels above and below 100 indicate

degrees of optimism/pessimism.

+17-2

+5+2

0

+2

0

+5

+2

+4

+5

-4

+1

0

+5

+4

+1

-8

+4

-6

-2

00

-4+8

-3+3

+1+9-1-4 -8+1

-5+1

-3

-3-10

-9

+2

+4

-2

+2

-12

+2

-3

-4

-5

+4

-3

-6

0

-4

-7

-3

-2

86 SPAIN

87 NO

RWAY

88 AUSTRIA

88 PO

LAND

89 BELGIUM

90 TURKEY

ITALY 58

90 COLOMBIA

SLOVENIA 62

91 AUSTRALIA

RUSSIA 63

HUNGARY 64

93 HONG KONG

EGYPT 64

94 SAUDI ARABIA

FRANCE

66

95 SWEDEN

FINLAND 68

96 PERU

LATVIA 69

98 CANADA

CROATIA 69

100 NETHERLANDS

SERBIA 69

100 ISRAELTAIWAN 72 100 IRELAND

ESTONIA 72

101 GERMANY

JAPAN 73

102 UNITED KINGDOM

LITHUANIA 74

102 SWITZERLAND

PORTUGAL 74

103 CZECH REPUBLIC

ARGENTINA 75

103 NEW ZEALAND

BULGARIA 75

106 PAKISTAN

SOUTH AFRICA 77

107 DENMARK

KAZAKHSTAN 78

108 CHIN

A

CHILE

78

108 U

NITED ARAB EMIR

ATES

SLOVAKIA

82

110

THAILA

ND

MAL

AYSI

A

84

112

VIET

NAM

ROM

ANIA

85

120

INDO

NES

IA

BRAZ

IL

85

123

UN

ITED

STA

TES

MO

ROCC

O

85

SIN

GAP

ORE

86

MEX

ICO

8

6

0

VENEZUELA 57

0

132

PH

ILIP

PIN

ES

MORE CONFIDENT

0

BELARUS55

GREECE53

NORTH AMERICA LATIN AMERICA EUROPE AFRICA, MIDDLE EAST ASIA-PACIFIC

101 ( +2 change from Q3-2016 )

GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE SURVEY – 63 Countries – 3-Month TrendQ4-2016 Nielsen Consumer Confidence Index*

+2

UKRAIN

E

GLOBALAVERAGE

52

+1

-3

SOU

TH KO

REA43

COUNTRY —INDEX

+3

136

IN

DIA

*Survey is based on respondents with Internet access. China survey results reflect a mixed methodology. Index levels above and below 100 indicate degrees of optimism/pessimism.

LESS C

ONFIDENT

INDEXES ABOVE 100 INDICATE OPTIMISM


OPTIMISM WAS HIGH IN THE U.S. AND POSITIVE MOMENTUM CONTINUED IN CANADAU.S. consumer confidence remained strong in the fourth quarter at 123,

driven by robust increases in all confidence indicators. Seven in 10 U.S.

respondents said they believed their personal finances would be good

or excellent in the next 12 months, an increase of nine percentage points

from the third quarter. More than six in 10 (63%) believed it was a good

time to buy the things they want and need, an increase of 11 percentage

points. Sixty-one percent had confidence in the job market in the year

ahead, an increase of 11 percentage points from the third quarter.

These spikes might have been affected by continued growth of the U.S.

economy and job markets, as well as the completion of the presidential

election cycle.1

Similarly, recessionary sentiment declined dramatically in the fourth

quarter. While 50% of U.S. respondents expressed belief that the country

was in recession in the fourth quarter, nearly half of these respondents

(47%) were confident they would be out of recession in the next 12

months. Of the 51% who believed their country was in recession in the

previous quarter, only 18% believed they would be out in the year ahead.

This optimism translated into a willingness to spend. Intentions to

spend on vacations increased 11 percentage points from the third

quarter, and intentions to buy new technology rose six percentage

points; the number for purchasing clothes rose four percentage points.

Conversely, intention to save declined by five percentage points, and

intention to pay off debts declined three percentage points from the

third quarter. Only 13% of U.S. respondents said they did not have

discretionary funds to spend, an improvement from 16% in the third

quarter.

1The U.S. jump matches similar jumps within the quarter in a number of U.S.-only surveys, including The Conference Board, the University of Michigan, and the National Federation of Independent Business. Such jumps usually resolve to some degree in the next quarter’s results.


“Post-election, American consumers appeared to be more optimistic

and to be prepared to spend to a greater degree than earlier in the year,”

said Keely. “The growth outlook for the U.S. economy in 2017 also is

somewhat better since the election, with economic growth to a large

degree fueled by expected growth in total consumer spending.”

On a list of 20 possible concerns, the economy remained the biggest or

second-biggest concern for 36% of U.S. respondents, up five percentage

points from the third quarter but down one percentage point from the

first quarter. Concerns about terrorism rose for the second consecutive

quarter. More than one-fourth of U.S. respondents (27%) said terrorism

was their biggest or second-biggest concern, an increase of six

percentage points from the third quarter. Other top concerns centered

on political stability (17%), health (15%), debt (10%) and job security

(10%), as they have in the recent past.

In Canada, confidence increased for the third consecutive quarter, rising

one point to 98, as all confidence indicators improved modestly in the

fourth quarter. More than six in 10 Canadian respondents (61%) said

personal finances would be good or excellent in the next 12 months, an

increase of one percentage point from the third quarter. Respondents

also expressed more optimism about job prospects; the share expecting

favorable prospects (47%) rose three percentage points in the fourth

quarter. Forty-four percent of Canadian respondents said it’s a good

time to buy, up one percentage point from the third quarter.

As in the U.S., the primary concern in Canada was the economy,

cited as the biggest or second-biggest concern by 30% of Canadian

respondents, a one-percentage-point increase from the third quarter.

Canadian respondents also expressed concern about debt (20%, up

two percentage points from the third quarter), rising utility bills (19%,

down three points), job security (17%, down one point), health (17%, no

change) and rising food prices (16%, down six points).


PERCENT SAYING THE NEXT 12 MONTHS WILL BE GOOD/EXCELLENT

UNITED STATES

CANADA

+11

+1

61%

70%

63%

44%

47%

61%

PERSONAL FINANCES

IMMEDIATE SPENDING INTENTIONS

JOB PROSPECTS

Source: Nielsen Global Survey of Consumer Confidence & Spending Intentions, Q4 2016

Q4 2016PERCENTAGE-POINT

CHANGE FROM Q3 2016

+11

+3

+9

+1

IN NORTH AMERICA, CONFIDENCE INDICATORS IMPROVEDTHE MOST IN THE UNITED STATES


THE EUROPEAN CONFIDENCE SCORE HELD STEADYIn Europe, consumer confidence was unchanged from the third quarter,

holding steady at 81. All confidence indicators were largely flat, with

personal-finance sentiment and immediate-spending intentions

unchanged from the third quarter at 43% and 34%, respectively.

Confidence about job prospects in the year ahead inched downward,

declining one percentage point from the third quarter to 31%.

Within the region, however, confidence relative to the third quarter rose

in 16 markets, fell in 14 and remained flat in four. Of the markets that

increased, most (12 of 16) saw only modest gains of four points or less.

Confidence increased in three of the region’s top five economies, rising

nine points in Spain(to 86, the highest level for the country since 2007)

and one point in Germany (to 101, exceeding the optimism baseline for

the first time). Confidence in Italy increased one point from the third

quarter to 58. Despite a four-point decline in the fourth quarter, the U.K.

(102) remained one of the most confident markets in the region. In

France, the index of 66 represented a three-point decline from the third

quarter.

“Spain’s healthy growth rate—well above that of the other major

European countries—has remained steady, and growing confidence is

reflected in strong out-of-home consumption,” said Gustavo Nunez,

market leader, Nielsen Iberia. “Spain also has benefited from robust

foreign tourism, with the number of visitors in 2016 up 10% over the

previous year, fostering spending growth in the hotels, restaurants and

cafes channel. Although unemployment remains a major concern, it is

decreasing monthly; in fact, the rate is down seven points in the past

three years. And after a year of political instability, a new government is

in place and negotiation has replaced confrontation.”

The job outlook for the year ahead declined slightly in both Germany

and the U.K. in the fourth quarter. Fifty-eight percent of German

respondents expected favorable prospects for jobs in the coming year,

down from 60% in the third quarter. In the U.K., 43% thought the

outlook was favorable, down three percentage points. Personal-finance

sentiment also declined slightly in the U.K. (from 55% to 53%), while

immediate-spending intentions were flat relative to the third quarter, at

53%. In Germany, personal-finance sentiment and immediate-spending

intentions both increased modestly, rising one percentage point each to

57% and 50%, respectively.

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CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INCREASED IN 16 OF 34 EUROPEAN MARKETS IN Q4

Denmark

Czech Republic

Switzerland

U.K.

Germany

Ireland

Israel

Netherlands

Sweden

Turkey

Belgium

Austria

Poland

Norway

Spain

Romania

Slovakia

Kazakhstan

Bulgaria

Portugal

Lithuania

Estonia

Serbia

Croatia

Latvia

Finland

France

Hungary

Russia

Slovenia

Italy

Belarus

Greece

Ukraine

INDEX

PERCENTAGE-POINT CHANGE FROM Q3 2016

INCREASE

DECREASENO CHANGE

107

103

102

102

101

100

100

100

95

90

89

88

88

87

86

85

82

78

75

74

74

72

69

69

69

68

66

64

63

62

58

55

53

52

0

4

5

-4

1

0

5

4

4

-4

8

3

-3

1

9

-2

1

-3

-9

4

-2

-12

2

-4

-5

4

-3

0

-4

-7

1

0

-3

2


“German respondents seem very confident this year,” said Ingo Schier,

managing director, Nielsen Germany. “The confidence of German

consumers rose again in the fourth quarter 2016, and is now at an

optimistic index level of 101 points. Overall, job optimism is high and

the German labor market remains strong. German respondents also are

quite optimistic about their personal finances and believe the coming

year will be a good time to spend money. Despite changes in the world

economy, such as the Brexit and the government change in the U.S.,

private consumption will once again be the primary growth driver

of the German economy in 2017. Terrorism and crime make German

consumers insecure, and these issues were the largest concerns in the

country in the fourth quarter. However, these concerns haven’t had an

immediate impact on local consumer confidence.”

In Belgium, confidence increased eight points from the third quarter to

89, the highest level since 2011. Personal-finance sentiment rose five

percentage points to 46% favorable, immediate-spending intentions

increased seven percentage points to 37%, and the job outlook rose

three percentage points to 34% expressing a positive outlook.

The top concerns for Europeans in the fourth quarter were terrorism

and the economy, each cited as the biggest or second-biggest concern

by 21% of respondents in the region. However, the percentage of

respondents who cited terrorism as a leading concern declined eight

percentage points from the third quarter. In fact, concern about

terrorism dropped in all 34 European countries measured, with the

largest declines in Switzerland (26%, down 14 percentage points),

Belgium (24%, down 14 points), Italy (18%, down 14 points), Denmark

(12%, down 14 points) and Poland (11%, down 14 points). The economy,

job security and health also were major concerns, cited by 21%, 19% and

18% of European respondents, respectively.

“In the last quarter, we’ve seen the first signs of rising inflation in the U.K., with

petrol prices as a prime example,” said Steve Smith, managing director, Nielsen

U.K. and Ireland. “We now expect to see the start of price increases for consumer

staples early in 2017, and perhaps cases of ‘shrinkflation’ as the industry looks

to minimize the price increases being passed on to shoppers. In addition, as

the political and economic planning for Brexit gets under way, concerns about

jobs leaving the U.K. have unsettled consumers. Terrorism threats and the U.S.

election also have created uncertainty. However, times generally remain good

for U.K. consumers, with strong employment and wage growth that rose slightly

ahead of price inflation during the last year. In addition, disposable income

remains stable, while tax benefits for low-wage earners and a rise in the minimum

wage have reduced income inequality. As a result, consumer spending continued

to be the engine of GDP growth in the U.K. in 2016.”


TURKEYFRANCE

GERMANYSWITZERLAND

BELGIUMNETHERLANDS

AUSTRIASWEDEN

CZECH REPUBLICU.K.

ISRAELITALY

SPAINNORWAY

SLOVAKIADENMARK

IRELANDPOLAND

HUNGARYKAZAKHSTAN

BULGARIACROATIAFINLAND

PORTUGALSERBIA

SLOVENIALATVIA

ESTONIAROMANIA

RUSSIAGREECE

UKRAINELITHUANIA

BELARUS

55%38%34%26%24%23%22%22%21%

20%18%18%17%16%13%12%11%11%

10%10%9%9%8%8%8%8%6%5%5%5%3%3%2%1%

Q4 2016

-4-10-10-14-14-11-12-4

-12-9-5

-14-5

-10-10-14-10-14-9-9

-12-11-7

-12-9

-10-10-9-11-5-6-2-4-3

PERCENTAGE-POINTCHANGE FROM

Q3 2016

TERRORISM CONCERNS DECLINED ACROSS EUROPE IN Q4BUT REMAIN HIGH IN MANY MARKETS

PERCENT WHO SAY TERRORISM IS THEIR BIGGEST OR SECOND-BIGGEST CONCERN



CONFIDENCE IN ASIA-PACIFIC VARIES WIDELY BY COUNTRYConfidence in the Asia-Pacific region was relatively stable at 111, a two-

point increase from the third quarter. Confidence was highest in the

emerging markets in the region. India, apparently a nation of determined

optimists, led the way at 136 (up three points from the third quarter),

the highest score in Nielsen’s 63-country survey. New Zealand (103, up

two points from the third quarter) was the only developed market in the

region with a score above the baseline of 100 points.

Regionally, all confidence indicators improved in the third quarter.

Sixty-four percent of respondents in Asia-Pacific said they expected their

personal finances to be good or excellent in the coming year, up one

percentage point from the third quarter. Nearly as many (63%) expressed

optimism about job prospects in the year ahead, an increase of three

percentage points from the third quarter. More than half of regional

respondents (52%) said it is a good or excellent time to buy the things

they want and need, a two-point increase.

Confidence results, however, were largely mixed at the country level.

While consumer confidence increased modestly in six countries in

the fourth quarter, it declined in the same number and was flat in two

others. The largest change was in Singapore, where confidence declined

eight points to 86, the lowest score since first-quarter 2009. Sentiment

declined on all of the confidence indicators measured. Fewer than half

of respondents in Singapore (47%) expressed confidence about their

personal finances in the coming year, a decline of three percentage

points from the third quarter. Roughly one-third said it’s a good time

to spend (35%) or that they were confident about job prospects (31%),

down four and 10 percentage points, respectively.

“The labor market in Singapore has displayed symptoms of weakening

over successive quarters of gradual decline,” said Joan Koh, managing

director, Nielsen Singapore and Malaysia. “Layoffs continued across

the financial-services and banking sectors due to strong wage inflation

and increased cost-of-living expenses. However, unemployment has

remained low and stable, with government support and programs in

place to strengthen businesses and the local workforce over the next

two years. In addition, uncertainty about global trade and heightened

protectionism under the new U.S. presidential administration and recent

diplomatic disputes with China may have increased market volatility

and dampened Singapore’s export-led growth, exerting pressure on the

Singapore dollar and affecting interest rates.”


Consumer confidence in Malaysia also fell to the lowest level in more

than seven years, declining five points to 84. Sentiment declined on all

of the confidence indicators measured: The percentage optimistic about

their personal finances declined three percentage points to 46%, those

optimistic about the job outlook fell two percentage points to 35%, and

those with immediate-spending intentions declined two percentage points

to 27%.

“In Malaysia, concern about the economy increased in the fourth quarter,

with 85% of Malaysian respondents believing the country is in recession,

despite all economic indicators being positive,” said Richard Hall,

country manager, Nielsen Malaysia. “Consumers also are increasingly

worried about rising food, utility and fuel costs, which together are the

biggest concerns after the economy overall. The continuing devaluation

of the ringgit is likely top of mind for most consumers, as the prolonged

situation means that suppliers will potentially have no choice but to pass

on higher import costs to consumers in the long run. In addition, as

Malaysia enters a potential election year in 2017, concerns about political

stability have increased, consistent with the trend we saw before the last

election.”

In China, the region’s economic engine and the world’s largest

developing economy, confidence rose two points to 108, with the

increase driven primarily by more favorable perceptions about job

prospects, which rose four percentage points in the fourth quarter to

62% favorable. Personal-finance sentiment increased one percentage

point to 61% favorable, and immediate-spending intentions rose two

percentage points to 51%.

“Job growth has been a key focus for the Chinese government, especially

in the West and lower-tier cities in China, and rising confidence in

the outlook for jobs in the fourth quarter suggests consumers are

recognizing these efforts,” said Yan Xuan, president, Nielsen Greater

China. “China’s economy has kept a stable pace, with the highest GDP

growth in the world in 2016 —at 6.7%, including growth of 6.8% in the

fourth quarter—and consumers’ willingness to spend has continued to

increase, mainly driven by trading up as standards of living rise.”

India

Philippines

Indonesia

Vietnam

Thailand

China

New Zealand

Hong Kong

Australia

Singapore

Malaysia

Japan

Taiwan

South Korea

136

132

120

112

110

108

103

93

91

86

84

73

72

43

CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INCREASED OR WAS FLAT IN 8 OF 14 ASIA-PACIFIC MARKETS IN Q4


INDEX

PERCENTAGE-POINT CHANGE FROM Q3 2016

3

0

-2

5

2

2

2

-2

0

-8

-5

2

-3

-3

INCREASE DECREASE NO CHANGE


India’s consumer confidence score rose three points to 136, the highest

level in 10 years. More than eight in 10 Indian respondents were

confident about their personal finances (85%) and job prospects (84%)

in the coming year, and nearly seven in 10 (69%) said they believe it is a

good time to spend.

The biggest or second-biggest concerns in Asia-Pacific remained

relatively unchanged from the third quarter, with the economy (32%),

health (25%), work/life balance (23%) and job security (23%) topping

the list.

“The three-point increase in the confidence index in the fourth quarter

reflects strong economic and commercial performance at the end of the

third quarter and at the beginning of the fourth quarter, further benefited

by the timing of the festive season, when confidence typically rises,” said

Prasun Basu, president, Nielsen South Asia. “During the survey period, the

Indian government announced demonetization of high-denomination notes.

While this move created short-term constraints for consumers, the long-term

outlook is bullish–a sentiment clearly echoed in other Nielsen research and

by a recently released study by the Reserve Bank of India–thus strengthening

the overall confidence levels for the next 12 months.”


CONFIDENCE REMAINED STABLE IN THE LATIN AMERICA REGIONThe regional consumer confidence score for Latin America held steady

at 83 in the fourth quarter. The primary concern among Latin American

respondents continued to be the economy. It was the biggest or second-

biggest concern for 35% of respondents in the region, up one percentage

point from the third quarter. Economic concerns were followed by

worries about job security (24%), which was unchanged from the third

quarter, and crime (24%), which rose three percentage points.

These concerns were reflected in the confidence indicators. Regionally,

optimism about jobs remained low at 26% favorable, unchanged from

the third quarter. Immediate-spending intentions saw a slight uptick,

rising one percentage point, but remained depressed, with less than

one-third (32%) of Latin American respondents saying it’s a good time

to buy the items they want and need. Personal-finance sentiment also

was relatively flat, declining two percentage points to 56% expressing a

favorable outlook.

In Brazil, the region’s biggest economy, consumer confidence rose

one point to 85, the highest score since the first quarter of 2015.

Immediate-spending intentions also increased modestly, rising two

percentage points to 35%. The jobs outlook rose one percentage point,

but remained low: One-quarter of Brazilian respondents (25%) said

they believed job prospects in the next 12 months would be excellent or

good. Despite their conservative spending intentions and a pessimistic

outlook on jobs, respondents were relatively positive about their own

financial situation. Sixty-two percent of Brazilian respondents predicted

their personal finances would be good or excellent in the next 12

months, a one-point decline from the third quarter.

CONSUMER CONFIDENCE WAS RELATIVELY STABLE IN LATIN AMERICA IN Q4


PERU

VENEZUELA

96

57

-8

0

MEXICO

86-1

ARGENTINA

752

COLOMBIA

900

BRAZIL

851

CHILE

78-3


INDEXPERCENTAGE-POINT CHANGE FROM Q3 2016


“Though improving at a slower pace than in the third quarter, the

Consumer Confidence Index in Brazil maintained an upward trend in

the fourth quarter,” said Luis Arjona, managing director, Nielsen Chile-

Brazil. “Macroeconomic indicators continue to improve in the country;

most importantly, inflation and interest rates are declining. Nonetheless,

as unemployment will remain high for the balance of 2017, we expect

sustainable growth in the consumer market will be gradual. We remain

optimistic about the economic recovery and expect overall consumption

levels to improve in the second half of 2017.”

In the region, consumer confidence was highest in Peru at 96, despite an

eight-point decline in the fourth quarter. Personal-finance sentiment and

the job prospects outlook declined by double digits in the fourth quarter,

falling 11 percentage points each to 57% and 46% favorable, respectively.

Immediate-spending intentions declined seven percentage points to 37%.

“Confidence in Peru increased for two consecutive quarters immediately

following the presidential election, as the newly-elected government

promised to boost investments and reduce bureaucratic obstacles,”

said Martha Lucía Giraldo, market leader, Nielsen Latin America. “But

optimism has fallen back to pre-election levels, as growth hasn’t occurred

as quickly as many Peruvians expected.”


IN AFRICA/MIDDLE EAST, CONFIDENCE DECLINED IN THE MA JORITY OF MEASURED MARKETS Consumer confidence in the Africa/Middle East region declined in the

fourth quarter, falling four points to 83, the lowest level in more than

three years. Confidence was highest in United Arab Emirates, which held

steady from the third quarter at 108. Pakistan was the only country where

consumer confidence moved in a positive direction, rising five points

from the third quarter to 106, the highest score for the country since it

was added to the survey in 2008.

Consumer confidence fell in four of the six Middle East/Africa countries

measured, a reflection of the economic difficulties facing many markets

in the region. Indeed, the economy is the biggest or second-biggest

concern for 29% of Africa/Middle East respondents, an increase of

three percentage points from the third quarter. Economic concerns

were followed closely by worries about job security (28%), down

one percentage point from the third quarter. Seventeen percent of

respondents said increasing food prices were among their biggest

concerns, an increase of one percentage point.

South Africa showed the biggest decline in consumer confidence in

the region in the fourth quarter. There, confidence fell 10 points to 77,

offsetting the gains made in the previous quarter.

“The roller-coaster consumer confidence sentiment in South Africa

continues, as respondents’ outlook about the economy deteriorated in

the fourth quarter following the short-lived increase in the third quarter,

which may have been boosted by the municipal elections,” said Bryan

Sun, managing director, Nielsen South Africa. “An impending credit-

rating review was a major source of apprehension during the fourth

quarter, and lower-than-expected GDP growth and rising food prices also

were concerns. In addition, South Africans are increasingly anxious about

ongoing disruption and uncertainty in tertiary-education structures.”


INDEXPERCENTAGE-POINT CHANGE FROM Q3 2016

CONSUMER CONFIDENCE IN PAKISTAN SEES IMPROVEMENT IN Q4 AND UAE REMAINS STRONG


0

5

-6

-10

-6

-4

UNITED ARAB EMIRATES

PAKISTAN

SAUDI ARABIA

SOUTH AFRICA

EGYPT

MOROCCO

108

106

94

77

64

85


In Egypt, the consumer confidence index declined six points to 64, the

lowest level for the country since it was added to the survey in 2007. Only

one-third of Egyptian respondents (34%) believed their personal finances

would be good or excellent during the next 12 months, down eight

percentage points from the third quarter, and roughly one-fifth (21%) felt

it was a good time to buy the items they want and need, a two percentage

point decline.

“Egyptians are living in times of change, and with change, sentiment can

be unsteady,” said Tamar Elaraby, country manager, Nielsen Egypt and

Levant. “The Egyptian pound is going through a process of reevaluation,

ultimately causing inflation and critical changes in the exporting- and

importing-based industries. Until the economy reaches a clear point

of stability, we expect certain fluctuations in consumer confidence to

continue.”

In Saudi Arabia, consumer confidence dipped below 100 for the

first time in 13 quarters, falling six points to 94. Personal-finance

sentiment declined eight percentage points to 48% favorable, and fewer

respondents said it is a good time to buy the items they want and need

(38%, down nine percentage points from the third quarter).

“Sharp declines in oil prices have negatively affected the Saudi economy,

as the sector accounts for roughly 85% of total revenue,” said Arslan

Ashraf, managing director, Nielsen Arabian Peninsula. “Low oil prices

have severely curtailed the government’s spending power, which is

the biggest driver of GDP, and the Saudi government has launched an

austerity drive in response. After raising prices for utilities, such as

electricity, water and petrol in early 2016, the government introduced

new austerity measures in the fourth quarter, including reducing the

allowances of government employees and increasing the visa fees for

expats. This has resulted in a reduction of consumer spending power

and, in turn, consumption.”


CONFIDENCE ROSE IN NIGERIA AND GHANA, BUT FELL IN KENYAConfidence in Nigeria climbed three points to 116 in the fourth quarter

after a steep decline in the third quarter. In Kenya, after three consecutive

quarters of rising consumer confidence, the index declined significantly,

falling 11 points to 109. Ghana’s score rose two points to 111.2

All confidence indicators in Nigeria increased in the fourth quarter. The

percentage of respondents who predicted that their personal finances

would be good or excellent in the next 12 months jumped five percentage

points to 80%, and 59% of Nigerian respondents said job prospects would

be good or excellent, up one percentage point from the third quarter.

Immediate-spending intentions increased four percentage points, rising to

39% of respondents who said now is a good time to spend. More than four

in 10 Nigerian respondents (44%) said they had spare cash, up from 36%

in the third quarter.

Conversely, in Kenya, all confidence indicators declined in the fourth

quarter. After robust gains in the third quarter, immediate-spending

intentions declined most, dropping 11 percentage points to 42%. Personal-

finance sentiment returned to second-quarter levels, declining six

percentage points to 66% favorable, and the outlook for jobs declined for

the second consecutive quarter, dropping four percentage points to 52%.

“Compared with some of the more volatile economies in Sub-Saharan

Africa, the Kenyan economy is growing at a relatively strong and stable

rate, with GDP growth of 6.2%, and Kenyans are generally feeling positive

about the future,” said Abhik Gupta, managing director, Nielsen East and

West Africa. “However, in the fourth quarter, growth and projections for

2017, slowed, fueled by the implementation of capped interest rates, rising

food inflation and unemployment concerns, particularly among the young.

Nearly one in every five Kenyan youths of working age is unemployed.

Nonetheless, despite the drop in its CCI score, Kenya remains the top-

ranked prospect in Africa, based on the Nielsen Africa Prospects Indicator,

which integrates macroeconomic, business, retail and consumer factors.”

2Ghana, Kenya and Nigeria were added to Nielsen’s measurement of consumer confidence in the first quarter of 2014 using a mobile survey methodology, which differs from the online methodology used to report consumer confidence and spending intentions for the other 63 countries outlined in this report. Therefore, these three Sub-Saharan African markets are not included in the global index discussed throughout this report.


Q3 2016 Q4 2016Q1 2016 Q2 2016

Source: Nielsen Global Survey of Consumer Confidence & Spending Intentions, Q4 2016Sub-Saharan Africa countries use a mobile methodology

GHANA

KENYA

NIGERIA

CONSUMER CONFIDENCE RISES IN GHANA AND NIGERIA IN Q4

104 104 109 111

108 109114 120

120 113 116122


MARKET INTERNET PENETRATION

Australia 93%

China 52%

Hong Kong 80%

India 37%

Indonesia 34%

Japan 91%

Malaysia 68%

New Zealand 94%

Philippines 53%

Singapore 81%

South Korea 92%

Taiwan 84%

Thailand 60%

Vietnam 52%

MARKET MOBILE PENETRATION*

Ghana 130%

Kenya 81%

Nigeria 81%

COUNTRIES IN THE STUDY ASIA-PACIFIC


Egypt 37%

Morocco 61%

Pakistan 18%

Saudi Arabia 65%

South Africa 49%

United Arab Emirates

92%

AFRICA/MIDDLE EAST

Source: Miniwatts Marketing, Internet World Stats, Jun. 30, 2016 (Europe is updated through Nov. 30, 2015), www.internetworldstats.com


Canada 93%

United States 87%

NORTH AMERICA

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

EUROPE


Austria 83%

Belarus 59%

Belgium 85%

Bulgaria 57%

Croatia 75%

Czech Republic 80%

Denmark 96%

Estonia 84%

Finland 94%

France 84%

Germany 88%

Greece 63%

Hungary 76%

Ireland 83%

Israel 73%

Italy 62%

Kazakhstan 54%

Latvia 82%

Lithuania 82%

Netherlands 96%

Norway 96%

Poland 68%

Portugal 68%

Romania 56%

Russia 71%

Serbia 66%

Slovakia 83%

Slovenia 73%

Spain 77%

Sweden 95%

Switzerland 87%

Turkey 60%

United Kingdom 92%

Ukraine 43%


LATIN AMERICA

Argentina 79%

Brazil 68%

Chile 80%

Colombia 59%

Mexico 56%

Peru 59%

Venezuela 62%

*Based on mobile handsets divided by population.Source: CIA World Facebook, July 2015


ABOUT THE NIELSEN GLOBAL SURVEY

The Nielsen Global Survey of Consumer Confidence and Spending Intentions was conducted Oct. 31–Nov. 18, 2016, and polled more than 30,000 online consumers in 63 countries throughout Asia-Pacific, Europe, Latin America, the Middle East/Africa and North America. The sample includes internet users who agreed to participate in this survey and has quotas based on age and sex for each country. It is weighted to be representative of internet consumers by country. Because the sample is based on those who agreed to participate, no estimates of theoretical sampling error can be calculated. However, a probability sample of equivalent size would have a margin of error of ±0.6% at the global level. This Nielsen survey is based only on the behavior of respondents with online access. Internet penetration rates vary by country. Nielsen uses a minimum reporting standard of 60% internet penetration or an online population of 10 million for survey inclusion. The China Consumer Confidence Index is compiled from a separate mixed-methodology survey among 3,500 respondents in China. The Sub-Saharan African countries in this study are compiled from a separate mobile survey methodology among 1,600 respondents in Ghana, Kenya and Nigeria. The Nielsen Global Survey, which includes the Global Consumer Confidence Index, was established in 2005.

ABOUT NIELSEN Nielsen Holdings plc (NYSE: NLSN) is a global performance management

company that provides a comprehensive understanding of what consumers

watch and buy. Nielsen’s Watch segment provides media and advertising

clients with Total Audience measurement services for all devices on which

content — video, audio and text — is consumed. The Buy segment offers

consumer packaged goods manufacturers and retailers the industry’s only

global view of retail performance measurement. By integrating information

from its Watch and Buy segments and other data sources, Nielsen also

provides its clients with analytics that help improve performance. Nielsen,

an S&P 500 company, has operations in over 100 countries, covering more

than 90% of the world’s population.

For more information, visit www.nielsen.com.

Copyright © 2017 The Nielsen Company. All rights reserved. Nielsen and

the Nielsen logo are trademarks or registered trademarks of CZT/ACN

Trademarks, L.L.C. Other product and service names are trademarks or

registered trademarks of their respective companies. 17/10805


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