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contact: [email protected] Lorraine FitzGerald Private Sector Officer Adaptation Scotland The Changing Climate of Ayrshire Your Sustainable Future 21 st March 2012
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contact: [email protected]
Lorraine FitzGeraldPrivate Sector OfficerAdaptation Scotland
The Changing Climate of AyrshireYour Sustainable Future
21st March 2012
www.adaptationscotland.org.uk
Adaptation: The adjustment in economic, social or natural systems in response to actual or expected climatic change, to limit harmful consequences and exploit beneficial opportunities.
Scotland’s Climate Change Adaptation Framework (2009)
Adaptation: The adjustment in economic, social or natural systems in response to actual or expected climatic change, to limit harmful consequences and exploit beneficial opportunities.
Scotland’s Climate Change Adaptation Framework (2009)
The climate is changing and we need to be ready...
... adaptation means we prepare for the future – to deal with threats and take advantage of opportunities.
www.adaptationscotland.org.uk
What do we mean by climate?
Weather is what we experience and, as anyone living in Scotland will know, this can vary by the minute, as well as day-to-day and year-to-year.
Climate is the average of weather conditions over a long period of time*... while climate change is a long-term trend in climate
* World Meteorological Organisation uses a 30-year standard
www.adaptationscotland.org.uk
How does this winter’s weather compare?
Temperature Rainfall
...with the average between 1971 and 2000
warm&
wet
Note: Winter = December-February
www.adaptationscotland.org.uk
2012
Tem
pera
ture
Rain
fall
warm
wet
2011
cold
dry
2010
v. cold
dry
2009
avg.
dry
Year-to-Year the Weather Varies...recent winters are a good example
www.adaptationscotland.org.uk
Longer term changes in climate... summer
change from
1961 2006
temperature rainfall
wet
dry
www.adaptationscotland.org.uk
Longer term changes in climate... winter
change from
1961 2006
wet
dry
temperature rainfall
www.adaptationscotland.org.uk
The global climate trend
www.adaptationscotland.org.uk
What do we know about future climate?
http://ukclimateprojections.defra.gov.uk/
Scotland has access to world leading information – the UK Climate Projections - about how our climate is likely to change over this century.
Over the last few decades we have seen remarkable progress in our understanding of climate – and how humans are changing it...
... and we continue to improve on this.
www.adaptationscotland.org.uk
The key climate change trends for Scotland are:• Hotter, drier summers• Milder, wetter autumn and winters
We can also expect to see:• Increase in summer heat waves, extreme temperatures and drought• Increased frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events• Reduced occurrence of frost and snowfall• Sea level rise
www.adaptationscotland.org.uk
Clyde: change in temperature
High Emissions (A1FI)River Basin: ClydeMean Temperature - Annual
10%
33%
50%
67%
90%
very likely range
Chan
ge in
Ave
rage
Ann
ual T
empe
ratu
re (°
C)
2020s 2060s2030s 2040s 2050s 2070s 2080s
Southeast England was 2.3°C warmer than the Clyde(in the baseline period 1961-1990)
...over the 21st century
trend = warming
www.adaptationscotland.org.uk
What difference do a few degrees make?
Southeast England was 2.3°C warmer than Clyde
(in baseline 1961-1990)
So summer temperatures likely to be similar to those in south of England by the 2050s...
... and potentially more like those currently experienced in Southern Europe (>4°C)
*The projected values are for annual mean temperature under high emissions scenario
2050s +2.4°C(+1.5 to 3.6°C)
2080s +3.8°C(+2.5 to 5.5°C)
www.adaptationscotland.org.uk
?
Although with Rainfall changing as well, we don’t know exactly what the climate of the Ayrshire will be like...
www.adaptationscotland.org.uk
Clyde: Rainfall in the 2050s
Jan Feb Apr May Jun JulMar Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
summerspring autumnwinter
High Emissions (A1FI)River Basin: ClydeMean Precipitation - Monthly
10%
33%
50%
67%
90% very likely range
Baseline (1961-1990)
wetter
wetter
drier
Mon
thly
Ave
rage
Rai
nfal
l (m
m/d
ay)
www.adaptationscotland.org.uk
The key climate change trends for Scotland are:• Hotter, drier summers• Milder, wetter autumn and winters
We can also expect to see:• Increase in summer heat waves, extreme temperatures and drought• Increased frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events• Reduced occurrence of frost and snowfall• Sea level rise
www.adaptationscotland.org.uk
Are we loading the ‘climate dice’ for extreme weather events?
www.adaptationscotland.org.uk
But how might climate change impact on us?
www.adaptationscotland.org.uk
Damage infrastructure and disrupt transport networks
The potential for disruption due to increased flooding, erosion and landslides, storms and wind, and rising sea levels
Impact on insurance costs and the financial sector
Impact on health and wellbeing
Reduction in deaths and hospital admissions during cold months – although might exacerbate respiratory diseases
Increased use of outdoors in summer – although might be heat-related health concerns
Buildings need to be fit for purpose in a future climate
Building will need to cope with more extreme summer temperatures, intense rainfall events and potential changes in wind and storm patterns.
www.adaptationscotland.org.uk
The Natural Environment
Some species might find it hard to cope with climate change – loss (or change) of biodiversity and species migration.
Potential for spread of pests and disease not currently widespread.
Agriculture and Forestry
Crop types might change and longer growing seasons could lead to increased yields – although summer drought is a risk.
Potential for spread of pests and disease not currently widespread.
www.adaptationscotland.org.uk
How might a landscape change?
www.adaptationscotland.org.ukOriginal image: SNH (Lorne Gill)
Photo-edited by Land Use Consultants
www.adaptationscotland.org.ukOriginal image: SNH (Lorne Gill)
Photo-edited by Land Use Consultants
