Contribución UIB-DFS a HyMeXEventos extremos en el ciclo hidrológico

Mediterráneo: física y predecibilidad

V. Homar R. Romero A. AmengualM. Vich L. Garcies M. Tous

C. Ramis S. Alonso

HyMeX.es

Líneas principales UIB• WG3: Heavy rainfall, flash-floods and floods• WG4: Intense sea-atmosphere interactions

1. to improve our understanding of the water cycle, with emphases on the predictability and evolution of intense events

2. to evaluate the societal and economical vulnerability to extreme events and the adaptation capacity

Objetivos HyMeX

HyMeX.es

WG3: Heavy rainfall, flash-floods and floodsTopic 3.1a- Heavy precipitation systems climatology

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WG3: Heavy rainfall, flash-floods and floodsTopic 3.1b- Factors leading to heavy precipitation systems

Análisis numérico de factores (separación de factores):•Contorno (orografia, superficie marina, tipo suelo)•Procesos Físicos (evaporación, liberación calor latente, calor sensible)•Estructuras dinámicas (vaguadas, centros ciclónicos, estructuras PV)

HyMeX.es

15 UTC

9 UTC

Reference MM5 With nudging Radar reflectivities

5

WG3: Heavy rainfall, flash-floods and floodsTopic 3.1b- Factors leading to heavy precipitation systems

HyMeX.es

WRF : Front structure at 12 UTC

Өe à 850 hPa Өe vertical section A-B

A katafront 6

WG3: Heavy rainfall, flash-floods and floodsTopic 3.1b- Factors leading to heavy precipitation systems

HyMeX.es

WG3: Heavy rainfall, flash-floods and floods

Topic 3.1f-Modeling and predictability issues

• Generación de SPC (ensembles)• Multifísica• Perturbación CI basada en PV• Perturbación CI basada en BredVectors• Perturbación CI basada en Adjunto

• Mejora de CI a través de targeting a corto y medio plazo

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We easily compute probabilities of future outcomes:

Time

Initial fields

Prediction 18 ºC(20%)

16 ºC(50%)

14 ºC(30%)

Ensemble prediction systems

WG3: Heavy rainfall, flash-floods and floodsTopic 3.1f-Modeling and predictability issues

HyMeX.es

New generation method for extreme events:“Targeted” bred vectors

ln(ρ) = -1.3ω2 = 1.8

ln(ρ) = -3.5ω2 = 0.1

ln(ρ) = -1ω2 = 0.5

ln(ρ) = -.5ω2 = 1.5

ln(ρ) = 0ω2 = 5

WG3: Heavy rainfall, flash-floods and floodsTopic 3.1f-Modeling and predictability issues

HyMeX.es

WG3: Heavy rainfall, flash-floods and floodsTopic 3.1f-Modeling and predictability issues

HyMeX.es

WG3: Heavy rainfall, flash-floods and floodsTopic 3.1f-Modeling and predictability issues

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THE SCENE THE CRIME

THE SUSPECTS US, THE RESEARCHERS

WG3: Heavy rainfall, flash-floods and floodsTopic 3.1f-Modeling and predictability issues

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Forecasting process

WG3: Heavy rainfall, flash-floods and floodsTopic 3.1f-Modeling and predictability issues

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ADJOINT ENSEMBLE-1 ENSEMBLE-2 HUMAN NON-SENS

A cylindrical gaussian perturbation is applied at t-48h to the IC with an amplitude proportional to their zonal standard deviation and centered on the maximum of the mean sensitivity field. Geopotential height at 500hPa:

Sensitivity locations:

ADJOINT ENSEMBLE-1 ENSEMBLE-2 HUMAN NON-SENS

Sensitivities of Mediterranean Intense Cyclones: Analysis and Verification

WG3: Heavy rainfall, flash-floods and floodsTopic 3.1f-Modeling and predictability issues

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Mean normalized RMSD of MSLP over the 25 verification cyclone cases:

Sensitivities of Mediterranean Intense Cyclones: Analysis and Verification

WG3: Heavy rainfall, flash-floods and floodsTopic 3.1f-Modeling and predictability issues

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WG3: Heavy rainfall, flash-floods and floodsTopic 3.1f-Modeling and predictability issues

http://mm5forecasts.uib.es

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WG3: Heavy rainfall, flash-floods and floods

Topic 3.2d-Modeling and predictability issues

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WG3: Heavy rainfall, flash-floods and floods

Topic 3.2d-Modeling and predictability issues

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• To improve our understanding from global climate model outputs to regional and local spatial scales:

GCMs

Dynamical downscaling

RCMs

- Regional scales: Dynamical downscaling. Regional Climate Models (RCMs)

Statistical downscaling

- Local scales: Statistical downscaling and model calibration from RCMs

WG3: Heavy rainfall, flash-floods and floodsTopic 3.3-Impact of climate change on heavy precipitation and

flash-floods

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WG3: Heavy rainfall, flash-floods and floodsTopic 3.3-Impact of climate change on heavy precipitation

and flash-floods

i

io ip

pis fis

HyMeX.es

SPdP: change in annual intensity trends of extreme events (1979-2008/2021-2050)

WG3: Heavy rainfall, flash-floods and floodsTopic 3.3-Impact of climate change on heavy precipitation and flash-floods

HyMeX.es

Líneas principales UIB• WG3: Heavy rainfall, flash-floods and floods• WG4: Intense sea-atmosphere interactions

1. to improve our understanding of the water cycle, with emphases on the predictability and evolution of intense events

2. to evaluate the societal and economical vulnerability to extreme events and the adaptation capacity

Objetivos HyMeX

HyMeX.es

WG4: Intense sea-atmosphere interactionsTopic 4.1a-Local severe winds

10 Desembre 1996

29 Setembre 1983

16 Gener 1995

9 Octubre 1996

2shear

3

max

32/35 V1.01

70

V

50

H10GENPDF

HyMeX.es

WG4: Intense sea-atmosphere interactionsTopic 4.1a-Local severe winds

HyMeX.es

€

q =r η ⋅

r ∇θ

ρ

€

∇2Φ =∇⋅ ( f∇Ψ) +2

a4 cosθJλθ [∂λ Ψ,∂θ Ψ]

€

q =gκπ

p( f +∇2Ψ)∂π

2Φ −∂λπ

2 Ψ∂λπ2 Φ

a2 cos2 θ−

∂θπ2 Ψ∂θπ

2 Φ

a2

⎡

⎣ ⎢

⎤

⎦ ⎥

+ B.C.+ Hydrostatic Eq.

ÊPV inversion (Hoskins et al., 1985)

WG4: Intense sea-atmosphere interactionsTopic 4.1b-Mediterranean cyclogenesis

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APÉNDICES

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http://www.hymex.org

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