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Contribution analysis
Anita Morrison and Jackie Horne, Office of the Chief Researcher,
Scottish Government
Contribution analysis, results chains, logic modelling….
It’s all about outcomes
• Clarify the language – activities, inputs, outputs and outcomes!
• Examine how we can map interventions to outcomes (both singly and multiply)
• Examine how we can assess progress and performance towards outcomes
• Get working on some useful stuff!
National Performance Framework
Contribution analysis
• Holy grail of attribution…
“Builds a reasonably credible case about the difference the program is making.” (John Mayne)
• Good contribution analysis is, in effect, theory-based evaluation• Use of logic models and results chains strengthens programme
planning , design and review• Clearly sets out assumptions and external factors• Also strengthens approach to research / analytical planning
The Six Steps…..
1: Set out the attribution problem to be addressed2: Develop a theory of change and ‘model’ or ‘map’ it (including
external factors and underlying assumptions)3: Assemble the contribution story 4: Assess the performance story5: Seek out additional evidence6: Revise and strengthen the contribution story
Understanding what we mean by outcomes
Not straightforward…..
Distinguishing between inputs, activities,outputs and outcomes…………
Understanding the relationship between policies and outcomes –
single intervention
A simple results chain – example - exercise classes for over 65s and HLE
Inputs
Activities (policies)
Outputs
Reach
Short term outcomes
Intermediate outcomes
High level outcomes
Over 65s, especially those not doing enough exercise
Staff, equipment, leisure centres, etc.
Invest in exercise facilities and classes for over 65s
More accessible exercise classes and facilities for over 65s.
Increased levels of physical activity in over 65s
Lower blood pressure, improved mobility among over 65s
Increase in healthy life expectancy
Results chain-Twilight basketball funded through Cashback
National Outcome
We live our lives safe from crime, disorder and danger (NO9)
Intermediate Outcomes
•Less anti-social behaviour•Less time spent bored and on streets•Constructive use of leisure time
Reach 16-21 year olds in areas hardest hit by crime
Output Coaching, games, leagues, role models, education during time-out
Activities Twilight basketball (funded through Cashback)
Inputs Staff, funding, etc.
Results chain-Twilight basketball funded through Cashback
National Outcome
Our young people are successful learners, confident individuals, effective contributors and responsible citizens (NO 4)
Intermediate Outcomes
•Aspirations and confidence increase•Young people recognise that they have more opportunities•Young people learn a new skill
Reach 16-21 year olds in areas hardest hit by crime
Output Coaching, games, leagues, role models, education during time-out
Activities Twilight basketball (funded through Cashback)
Inputs Staff, funding, etc.
National outcome We live our lives safe from crime, disorder and danger (NO 9)
Our young people are successful learners, confident individuals, effective contributors and responsible citizens. (NO 4)
Intermediate outcomes
→Less antisocial behaviour.
→ Less time spent bored and on streets.
→ Constructive use of leisure time.
→ Aspirations and confidence increase.
→ Young people recognise that they have more opportunities.
→ Young people learn a new skill.
Reach 16 – 21 year old in areas hardest hit by crime.
Output Coaching, games, leagues, role models, education during time out.
Activities Twilight basket ball (funded through Cashback)
Inputs
A simple results chain
National outcome/purpose target
Intermediate outcomes
→
→
→
→
→
→
Reach
Output
Activities
Inputs
Multiple policies - logic models and
contribution analysis
• Move beyond results chains to consider inter-linkages between policies and outcomes
• Consider strength (and weaknesses) of the contribution of different policies to outcomes
• Assess and measure progress towards purpose targets and national outcomes
• Inform cost-effectiveness and future resource allocation
• Highlight strengths and weaknesses in evidence base
Alcohol – Partner Contributions to Outcomes
Inputs
Activities
Outputs
Reach
Short-term outcomes
Intermediate outcomes
High level outcomes
NHS
Brief advice
Preventive services
Hazardous and harmful
drinkers
Service uptake &
engagement
Police
Enforcement of drink driving laws
Random breath testing
Drivers
Increased detection rate
Local authorities
Enforcement of planning
controls & licensing laws
Enforcement actions
Licensed trade
Compliance with laws
BehaviourReduced alcohol consumption levelsLess drunkenness; less drink-driving
Improved mental wellbeingReduced inequalities in healthy life expectancy
Reduced inequalities in alcohol-related deaths and hospital admissions
EnvironmentsPhysical: Reduced exposure to alcohol-related hazardsEconomic: Reduced availability/affordability of alcohol
Social: Drunkenness less attractive; sensible drinking the norm
SG, UK govts, EU
Industry regulation
Taxation,displays, promotions,
advertising
Alcohol industry
Increased priceReduced incentives
Scottish Govt
Media campaigns
Sensible drinking
messages
General public - targeted
Understanding risks, attitudes
to drinking
Vol orgs
Detox, Intensive support
Addiction services
Adults with alcohol
problems
Increased sobriety &
stability
The actual and potential uses of this work? Is this the same for you?
• Generating a shared understanding of an outcome; and what government interventions might be best to deliver it
• Organisational capacity building in ‘outcomes working’
• Systematically assessing our performance /progress
• Reporting to our Board on progress against outcomes
• A basis for business planning and business improvement
• Possibly contributing to outcomes budgeting processes
Producing a logic model…
Contact details
Anita Morrison
0131 244 6530
Jackie Horne
0131 244 4816