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Contribution of Federal Standards Toward 6 th Plan Efficiency Goals Conservation Resources Advisory Committee Meeting June 4, 2014 1
1
Contribution of Federal Standards Toward 6th Plan
Efficiency GoalsConservation Resources
Advisory Committee MeetingJune 4, 2014
2
Sixth Plan Resource PortfolioSource:http://www.nwcouncil.org/energy/powerplan/6/2010-01/
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
0100020003000400050006000700080009000
NG Single Cycle
Demand Response
Simple-Cycle Gas
Combined-Cycle Gas
Renewables
Efficiency
Cum
ulat
ive
Reso
urce
(Ave
rage
Meg
awat
ts)
*Expected Value Build Out. Actual build out schedule depends on future conditions
3
Conservation Goals From 6th Plan Resource Portfolio1200 aMW Over Five Years, 5845 aMW Over 20 Years
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Retrofit Lost-Opportunity
Ann
ual A
cqui
sitio
ns (M
Wa)
4
What Counts Towards Targets?
Reported BPA, ETO, Utility & NEEA Programs Exceed Targets
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
Retrofit Targets Lost-Opportunity TargetsRetrofit Achievments Lost-Opportunity Achievments
Ann
ual A
cqui
sitio
ns (a
MW
) 780 aMW thru 2013!
6
What’s The Contribution of Federal Standards?
6th Plan Conservation Goals
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
Discretionary Lost-Opportunity
Annu
al A
cqui
stion
s (aM
W)
1200 aMW2010-2014
1660 aMW2015-2019
How Much Will New Federal Standards (and State Codes) Contribute Meeting 6th Plan Goals?
2010-2014 2015-20190
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
800 800
400
860
Discretionary Lost-Opportunity
5 –Y
ear
Acq
uisi
tions
(MW
a)
Codes and Standards PrimarilyProvide Lost-Opportunity Savings
9
Residential Appliance and Equipment Savings From Five Federal Standards That Take Effect by 2015 Are Just
Under 350 Average Megawatts by 2029
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Heat Pumps
Water Heaters
Freezers
Refrigerators
Dishwasher
Cum
ulati
ve S
avin
gs (M
Wa)
However, The Estimated Contribution of Residential Appliance and Equipment Standards Savings to Sixth Plan Conservation
Goals Is Small Over The Near Term
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
0
50
100
150
200
250
Lost-Opportunity Savings Goal Savings from Residential Federal Standards
Ann
ual A
cqui
stio
ns (a
MW
)
1 aMW2010-2014
125 aMW2015-2019
11
Commercial & Industrial Equipment Savings From Eight Federal Standards That Take Effect by 2015 Are Nearly 280
Average Megawatts by 2029
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
0
50
100
150
200
250
300Distribution Transformers
PTAC/HP
CAC Water Evap Cooled
CAC Air-Cooled
Electric Motors
Walk-in Cooler and Freezers
Commercial Washer (Laundromat)
Commercial Washer (MF Common Area)Cu
mul
ative
Sav
ings
(MW
a)
Commercial and Industrial Equipment Standards Savings Are More Significant Than Residential Over The
Near Term
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
0
50
100
150
200
250
Lost-Opportunity Savings Goal Savings from Commercial & Industrial Standards
Ann
ual A
cqui
stio
ns (a
MW
)
38 aMW2010-2014
74 aMW2015-2019
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Lighting Standards Lighting Standards in Sixth Plan forecast
General Service Incandescent (2012) Mercury Vapor (2008)
Seven Standards since Sixth Plan (Effective Dates) General Service Fluorescent Lamps (2012)(2014) Fluorescent Ballasts (2015) Metal Halide Fixtures (2012) Halogen Reflector Lamps (2012) Candelabra Lamps (2012) Ceiling Fan Light Kits (2010) Torchieres (2010)
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Lighting Savings From Seven Federal Standards That Take Effect by 2015 Are Over 155 Average Megawatts by 2029
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
Torchieres
Ceiling Fan Kits
Candelabra Standard
Halogen Reflector Standard
Metal Halide Standard
GSFL Standard
Fluorescent Ballast Standard
Cum
ulati
ve S
avin
gs (M
Wa)
Federal Lighting Standards Have the Greatest Near-Term Impact(Because Lighting Equipment Has a Short-Lifespan)
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
0
50
100
150
200
250
Lost-Opportunity Savings Goal Savings from Federal Lighting Standards
Ann
ual A
cqui
stio
ns (a
MW
)
62 aMW2010-2014
65 aMW2010-2014
Federal Standards Are Estimated to Save Just Over 100 aMW by 2014 and 265 aMW between 2015-2019
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
0
50
100
150
200
250
Lost-Opportunity Savings GoalSavings from Residential Federal StandardsSavings from Commercial & Industrial Standards
Ann
ual A
cqui
stio
ns (a
MW
)
102 aMW2010-2014
265 aMW2010-2014
17
Total Savings Forecast from Federal Standards Add Up to 780 Average Megawatts by 2029
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
0100200300400500600700800900
Residential Appliances & EquipmentCommercial & Industrial EquipmentLighting Equipment
Cum
ulati
ve S
avin
gs (M
Wa)
18
Federal Standards Adopted The Since Sixth Plan Capture One Quarter of The Twenty-Year Lost-Opportunity
Potential
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
Lost-Opportunity Savings Goal Lighting EquipmentCommercial & Industrial Equipment Residential Appliances & Equipment
Cum
ulati
ve S
avin
gs (M
Wa)
How Much Will New Federal Contribute Meeting 6th Plan Goals?
2010-2014 2015-20190
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
800 800
300595100
265Lost-Opportunity Sav-ings From Standards
Remaining Lost-Opportunity Sav-ings Goal
Discretionary5 –Y
ear
Acq
uisi
tions
(MW
a)
Regional Retrofit and Lost Opportunity Savings Goals, Net of Standards
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 -
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
160 160 160 160 160
81 107 125 138 152
Retrofit Targets Lost-Opportunity Targets, Net of Standards Savings from Standards
Annu
al S
avin
gs (M
Wa)
Some Caveats Estimates Subject to Further Review
Workbooks to be posted for review Overlap of State Codes & Fed Standards
Non-Res Lighting & HVAC Equipment Need to tease apart to avoid double count
Interaction between Codes & Standards Hours of operation for lighting (WA code)
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Next Up: Update Progress Towards 6P Targets
Adjust utility-reported savings to 6P baseline Remove early-retirement savings from reports Unit counts or consumption adjustments
Identify incremental non-program savings Non-Residential lighting Residential clothes washers & heat-pumps Others where data exist
Account for overlap & interaction
End
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