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2. Control of the grid in 2020and how economics can help usElectrical and Computer EngineeringUniversity of FloridaEnergy Systems WeekIsaac Newton Institute Cambridge, U.K. 3. Control of the grid in 2020and how economics can help usElectrical and Computer EngineeringUniversity of FloridaEnergy Systems WeekIsaac Newton Institute Cambridge, U.K.45 minute drive from home in Gainesville 4. Control of the grid in 2020and how economics can help usElectrical and Computer EngineeringUniversity of FloridaEnergy Systems WeekIsaac Newton Institute Cambridge, U.K.Co-author Prashant Mehta - first encounter with young Manatee 5. What is the Value of Power?A short quiz5 / 66 6. What is the Value of Power?A short quizthe value of power dependsupon location and context$69.36$70.86$75.19$69.29$29.365 / 66 7. What is the Value of Power?A short quizWind generationfor one day in thePacific NorthwestPrice is $20/MWh02000400060008000April 6MW1600 MW average output6 / 66 8. What is the Value of Power?A short quizWind generationfor one day in thePacific NorthwestPrice is $20/MWh02000400060008000April 6MW1600 MW average outputValue = 1600 MW x 24 hours x $20/MWh = $768,000 ?7 / 66 9. What is the Value of Power?A short quizZero net powerPrice is $20/MWh800600-10004002000200400600800April 3 April 4 April 5 April 6 April 7 April 8 April 9MW8 / 66 10. What is the Value of Power?A short quizZero net powerPrice is $20/MWh800600-10004002000200400600800April 3 April 4 April 5 April 6 April 7 April 8 April 9MWValue = 0 MW x 7 days x $20/MWh = $0 ?9 / 66 11. What is the Value of Power?A short quizZero net powerPrice is $20/MWhAnswers to be submitted at the end of lecture800600-10004002000200400600800April 3 April 4 April 5 April 6 April 7 April 8 April 9MW10 / 66 12. Markets for Dierentiated Electric Power ProductsConclusions in advanceTraditional fossil fuels will be history to our great grandchildren11 / 66 13. Markets for Dierentiated Electric Power ProductsConclusions in advanceWe need renewable energy, but how do we create a new energyinfrastructure to support this?11 / 66 14. Markets for Dierentiated Electric Power ProductsConclusions in advanceWe need renewable energy, but how do we create a new energyinfrastructure to support this?Some required elements:11 / 66 15. Markets for Dierentiated Electric Power ProductsConclusions in advanceWe need renewable energy, but how do we create a new energyinfrastructure to support this?Some required elements:Electricity must treated as a service and not a commodity: Gasturbine generation provides regulatory service. So could HVACSmart Grid programs have helped to create a framework for greaterservice dierentiationReal time control will be an essential element to combat volatility andensure reliability11 / 66 16. Markets for Dierentiated Electric Power ProductsConclusions in advanceTraditional fossil fuels will be history to our great grandchildrenWe need renewable energy, but how do we create a new energyinfrastructure to support this?Some required elements:Electricity must treated as a service and not a commodity: Gasturbine generation provides regulatory service. So could HVACSmart Grid programs have helped to create a framework for greaterservice dierentiationReal time control will be an essential element to combat volatility andensure reliabilityReal time prices have little or no value here:This is supported by theory and history.11 / 66 17. Outline1 Controlling the Grid2 Smart Grid in 20123 Some Science4 Conclusions & Suggestions5 References12 / 66 18. Controlling the GridIndiaComplex and highly interconnected control systemBDACKanpur, Uttar PradeshIIT Mumbai, MaharashtraKharagpur,West BengalNew Delhi, DelhiDelhi-Kolkata Hwy and AH 4,535 km, 66 hoursABCD13 / 66 19. Controlling the GridPower Grid IndiaComplex and highly interconnected control systemwww.ee.iitb.ac.in/~anil/50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 9050.350.450.550.650.7FrequencysecsKanpur, Uttar PradeshIIT Mumbai, MaharashtraKharagpur,West BengalNew Delhi, DelhiDelhi-Kolkata Hwy and AH 4,535 km, 66 hoursABCDRelay problem near the Taj Mahalen.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_India_blackoutsA disturbance in Agra appears to spread instantly to Mumbai and Calcutta.14 / 66 20. Controlling the GridPower Grid IndiaComplex and highly interconnected control systemwww.ee.iitb.ac.in/~anil/ July 30, 2012 Blackouten.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_India_blackouts8 12 16 20 23.5 24 28 32 36 68 72 76 80 84 88 92 96 ChennaiHyderabadBhubaneshwarKolkataRaipurDehradunShimlaSrinagarAizwalImphalKohimaGuwahatiShillongAgartalaItanagarGangtokPatnaRanchiMumbaiBhopalJaipurLucknowPanajiBangaloreThiruvananthapuramGandhinagarNew DelhiChandigarhSilvasaaPondicherry (Puducherry) Port BlairDiuKavaratiTamilNaduKarnatakaLakshadweepIslandsAndaman&NicobarIslandsGoaGujaratHaryana UttaranchalNagalandManipurTripuraSikkimMeghalayaAssamMizoramArunachalPradeshPunjabRajasthanChhattisgarhOrissaBiharJharkhandDadra & Nagar HaveliPondicherry (Karaikal)Pondicherry (Yanam)Pondicherry (Mahe)Daman & DiuWestBengalHimachalPradeshMadhya PradeshUttar PradeshJammu & KashmirMaharashtraAndhraPradeshKeralaMi 100 200 300Km 100 200 300 400States and Union TerritoriesMap of IndiaNational CapitalState CapitalUnion Territory CapitalMumbaiKanpurFrequency0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 2049.249.649.449.85050.215 / 66 21. Controlling the GridPower Grid IndiaComplex and highly interconnected control systemwww.ee.iitb.ac.in/~anil/ July 30, 2012 Blackouten.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_India_blackouts8 12 16 20 23.5 24 28 32 36 68 72 76 80 84 88 92 96 ChennaiHyderabadBhubaneshwarKolkataRaipurDehradunShimlaSrinagarAizwalImphalKohimaGuwahatiShillongAgartalaItanagarGangtokPatnaRanchiMumbaiBhopalJaipurLucknowPanajiBangaloreThiruvananthapuramGandhinagarNew DelhiChandigarhSilvasaaPondicherry (Puducherry) Port BlairDiuKavaratiTamilNaduKarnatakaLakshadweepIslandsAndaman&NicobarIslandsGoaGujaratHaryana UttaranchalNagalandManipurTripuraSikkimMeghalayaAssamMizoramArunachalPradeshPunjabRajasthanChhattisgarhOrissaBiharJharkhandDadra & Nagar HaveliPondicherry (Karaikal)Pondicherry (Yanam)Pondicherry (Mahe)Daman & DiuWestBengalHimachalPradeshMadhya PradeshUttar PradeshJammu & KashmirMaharashtraAndhraPradeshKeralaMi 100 200 300Km 100 200 300 400States and Union TerritoriesMap of IndiaNational CapitalState CapitalUnion Territory CapitalMumbaiKanpurFrequency0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 2049.249.649.449.85050.2In this talk I focus on engineering, and on U.S. energy policy15 / 66 22. Controlling the GridElectric Power GridsPhase angles depend ontransmission,grid dynamics,andshocks to the gridAngle Contour MapFNET Web DisplayElectric power grids are large, complex systems governed by physicallaws and constraints, and, impacted by many sources of dynamics anduncertaintyReliability, eciency and environment are the key drivers in powersystem operations and planning16 / 66 23. Controlling the GridElectric Power GridsPhase angles depend ontransmission,grid dynamics,andshocks to the gridAngle Contour MapFNET Web DisplayLatest shock to hit U.S.?16 / 66 24. Controlling the GridElectric Power GridsPhase angles depend ontransmission,grid dynamics,andshocks to the gridAngle Contour MapFNET Web DisplayLatest shock to hit U.S.? Government mandates for renewables!16 / 66 25. Controlling the GridGrowth of RenewablesRenewable Energy Consumption in the U.S.Quads16131410846301950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030*One quadrillion (1,000,000,000,000,000) British thermal units (Btus).17 / 66 26. Controlling the GridGrowth of RenewablesAlong with highly nonrenewable energy in the U.S.Renewable Energy Consumption in the U.S.Quads16131410846301950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030Annual natural gas well starts and production in Pennsylvaniawells started20053,5002,5003,0001,50050001,0002,0002006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20127.05.06.04.03.01.02.00.0billion cubic feet per dayhorizontal wells non-horizontal wells gas production*One quadrillion (1,000,000,000,000,000) British thermal units (Btus).17 / 66 27. Controlling the GridControlling the GridThe Grid as a Control SystemDynamics are everywhereSupply and demand are volatile18 / 66 28. Controlling the GridControlling the GridThe Grid as a Control SystemDynamics are everywhereSupply and demand are volatileTransmission lines are subject to dynamics and constraints18 / 66 29. Controlling the GridControlling the GridThe Grid as a Control SystemDynamics are everywhereSupply and demand are volatileTransmission lines are subject to dynamics and constraintsTraditional generators have non convex and dynamic costs18 / 66 30. Controlling the GridControlling the GridThe Grid as a Control SystemDynamics are everywhereSupply and demand are volatileTransmission lines are subject to dynamics and constraintsTraditional generators have non convex and dynamic costsDesires of Consumers & Suppliers, ErrorEnergy & VolatilityPower ConsumptionQuality of LifePower GridControlHC+18 / 66 31. Controlling the GridControlling the GridSo many resources to control!Dynamics are everywhereSupply and demand are volatileTransmission lines are subject to dynamics and constraintsTraditional generators have non convex and dynamic costsDesires of Consumers & Suppliers, ErrorEnergy & VolatilityPower ConsumptionQuality of LifePower GridControlHC+Actuators10234Regulation(MW)5minutesfromPJMTwoWeeksBPA(GW)100001000Hydro,NaturalGasFlexiblemanufacturingHVACBatteriesCapacitorsFlywheelsActuatorsHydro,NaturalGas BatteriesCapacitors FlywheelsFlexiblemanufacturing BrickbakingHVAC Waterpumping19 / 66 32. Controlling the GridControlling the GridSo many resources to control!Dynamics are everywhereSupply and demand are volatileTransmission lines are subject to dynamics and constraintsTraditional generators have non convex and dynamic costsDesires of Consumers & Suppliers, ErrorEnergy & VolatilityPower ConsumptionQuality of LifePower GridControlHC+Actuators10234Regulation(MW)5minutesfromPJMTwoWeeksBPA(GW)100001000Hydro,NaturalGasFlexiblemanufacturingHVACBatteriesCapacitorsFlywheelsActuatorsHydro,NaturalGas BatteriesCapacitors FlywheelsFlexiblemanufacturing BrickbakingHVAC WaterpumpingHow do we harness these actuators?19 / 66 33. Controlling the GridControlling the GridSmart Grid Myopia?Dynamics are everywhereSupply and demand are volatileTransmission lines are subject to dynamics and constraintsTraditional generators have non convex and dynamic costsDesires of Consumers & Suppliers, ErrorEnergy & VolatilityPower ConsumptionQuality of LifePower GridControlHC+Actuators10234Regulation(MW)5minutesfromPJMTwoWeeksBPA(GW)100001000Hydro,NaturalGasFlexiblemanufacturingHVACBatteriesCapacitorsFlywheels$$$ActuatorsHydro,NaturalGas BatteriesCapacitors FlywheelsFlexiblemanufacturing BrickbakingHVAC WaterpumpingMoney and consumer response in the loop ???20 / 66 34. Controlling the GridControlling the GridSmart Grid Myopia?Dynamics are everywhereSupply and demand are volatileTransmission lines are subject to dynamics and constraintsTraditional generators have non convex and dynamic costsDesires of Consumers & Suppliers, ErrorEnergy & VolatilityPower ConsumptionQuality of LifePower GridControlHC+Actuators10234Regulation(MW)5minutesfromPJMTwoWeeksBPA(GW)100001000Hydro,NaturalGasFlexiblemanufacturingHVACBatteriesCapacitorsFlywheels$$$ActuatorsHydro,NaturalGas BatteriesCapacitors FlywheelsFlexiblemanufacturing BrickbakingHVAC WaterpumpingMoney and consumer response in the loop ??? No way!20 / 66 35. Controlling the GridControlling the GridSmart Grid VisionDynamics are everywhereSupply and demand are volatileTransmission lines are subject to dynamics and constraintsTraditional generators have non convex and dynamic costsDesires of Consumers & Suppliers, ErrorEnergy & VolatilityPower ConsumptionQuality of LifePower GridControlHC+10234Regulation(MW)5minutesfromPJMTwoWeeksBPA(GW)100001000ActuatorsHydro,NaturalGas BatteriesCapacitors FlywheelsFlexiblemanufacturing BrickbakingHVAC WaterpumpingOur community can solve this, thank you!!21 / 66 36. Smart Grid in 20120 4am 9am 2pm 7pm$0$10,000$20,000StratfordOtahuhuNodal Power Pricesper MWhSmart Grid 201222 / 66 37. Smart Grid in 2012EIA 2011 StudySmart grid legislative and regulatory policies and case studiesMany success stories:Millions of smarter meters installed all over the globePNNL study: Automation of water heaters and other appliancesprovided ancillary service in the Olympic peninsulaLarge buildings such as hotels, and energy-intensive companies suchas IBM, Google, and ALCOA have contracts in place to help stabilizethe grid, encouraged by FERC Ruling 745Market-Based Demand Response Compensation Rule:Electric utilities and retail market operators are nowrequired to pay demand response resources the marketprice (LMP) for energy23 / 66 38. Smart Grid in 2012EIA 2011 StudySmart grid legislative and regulatory policies and case studiesMany success stories:Millions of smarter meters installed all over the globePNNL study: Automation of water heaters and other appliancesprovided ancillary service in the Olympic peninsulaLarge buildings such as hotels, and energy-intensive companies suchas IBM, Google, and ALCOA have contracts in place to help stabilizethe grid, encouraged by FERC Ruling 745Market-Based Demand Response Compensation Rule:Electric utilities and retail market operators are nowrequired to pay demand response resources the marketprice (LMP) for energyWhat is FERCs score on the quiz?23 / 66 39. Smart Grid in 2012Increasing Leverage of FlexibilityConstellation Energy & NJP&L: Awards gift cards and rate reductions to residentsfor control of air conditioners; company sells exibility as ancillary service.www.eia.gov/analysis/studies/electricity/pdf/smartggrid.pdf, December 12, 2011Energy department to launch new energy innovation hubfocused on advanced batteries and energy storage.www.energy.gov, February 7, 2012Honeywell And Hawaiian Electric To Use Demand ResponseTo Integrate Renewables And Reduce Fossil Fuel Dependence.www.honeywell.com, February 2, 2012Axion Powers PowerCube Battery Energy StorageSystem Integrated Into PJM Utility Grid.www.axionpower.com, November 22, 2011First small-scale demand-side projects in PJMproviding frequency regulation.www.sacbee.com, November 21, 201124 / 66 40. Smart Grid in 2012Building Thermal DynamicsFor control of the gridFeedforward control architecture; an add-on to the existing control system25 / 66 41. Smart Grid in 2012Building Thermal DynamicsFor control of the gridFeedforward control architecture; an add-on to the existing control systemGridRegulationSignalDesires of Consumers & Suppliers, ErrorErrorHappyConsumersEnergy & VolatilityFeedforward power deviationPower GridGrid ControlHC+ ActuatorHVAC100001000PIBuildingControl25 / 66 42. Smart Grid in 2012Building Thermal DynamicsFeedforward control architecture; an add-on to the existing control systemHow to we prevent a ght between our control system and theirs?26 / 66 43. Smart Grid in 2012Building Thermal DynamicsFeedforward control architecture; an add-on to the existing control systemHow to we prevent a ght between our control system and theirs?Feedforward control viewed as a disturbance by the existing HVAC PI controller?26 / 66 44. Smart Grid in 2012Building Thermal DynamicsFeedforward control architecture; an add-on to the existing control systemHow to we prevent a ght between our control system and theirs?Feedforward control viewed as a disturbance by the existing HVAC PI controller?Solution: Restrict to a BW that is unseen by PI control-freaks26 / 66 45. Smart Grid in 2012Building Thermal DynamicsFeedforward control architecture; an add-on to the existing control systemHow to we prevent a ght between our control system and theirs?Feedforward control viewed as a disturbance by the existing HVAC PI controller?Solution: Restrict to a BW that is unseen by PI control-freaksPower to Fan SpeedPower to TemperatureMagnitude(dB)Frequency (Hz) 100103 160014020204060Bandwidth for Ancillary Servicefrom Commercial BuildingsWithin this frequency band,Current HVAC control systems do not attempt to reject disturbancesTemperature is insensitive to fan-speed variations26 / 66 46. Smart Grid in 2012One Million Pools in FloridaFor ancillary service on a slower time-scale6004002000200400600Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Day 4 Day 5 Day 6 Day 7MW27 / 66 47. Smart Grid in 2012EIA 2011 StudySmart grid legislative and regulatory policies and case studiesMany success stories ... and failuresResidential consumers have high expectations,Predictable cost savingsThey may distrust those tampering with their appliances.They distrust meters they believe interfere with appliances.28 / 66 48. Smart Grid in 2012EIA 2011 StudySmart grid legislative and regulatory policies and case studiesMany success stories ... and failuresResidential consumers have high expectations,Predictable cost savingsThey may distrust those tampering with their appliances.They distrust meters they believe interfere with appliances.Moreover, the value of ancillary service obtained via demand response maybe reduced because of uncertainty of the level of consumer response.28 / 66 49. Smart Grid in 2012EIA 2011 StudySmart grid legislative and regulatory policies and case studiesMany success stories ... and failuresResidential consumers have high expectations,Predictable cost savingsThey may distrust those tampering with their appliances.They distrust meters they believe interfere with appliances.Moreover, the value of ancillary service obtained via demand response maybe reduced because of uncertainty of the level of consumer response.... yet, prices to devices are coming our way!Terry Boston, CEO PJM, ISGT 201228 / 66 50. Smart Grid in 2012EIA 2011 StudySmart grid legislative and regulatory policies and case studiesMoreover, the value of ancillary service obtained via demand response maybe reduced because of uncertainty of the level of consumer response.... yet, prices to devices are coming our way!Terry Boston, CEO PJM, ISGT 2012My concern: real-time pricing not TOU or contracts28 / 66 51. Smart Grid in 2012EIA 2011 StudyCase studies ... very little to say on real-time prices"The active participation of final demand in the wholesale market is essential to managingthe greater intermittency of renewable resources and in limiting the ability of wholesaleelectricity suppliers to exercise unilateral market power. A demand that is able to reduce itsconsumption in real-time in response to higher prices limits the ability of suppliersto exercise unilateral market power in a formal wholesale market such as the California ISO"(http://www.stanford.edu/group/fwolak/cgi-bin/sites/default/files/files/little_hoover_testimony_wolak_sept_2011.pdf) -F. Wolak"Virtually all economists agree that the outcome [of the California crisis] was exacerbated by the inability of the demand side of themarket to respond to real or artificial supply shortages. This realization prompted my research stream on real-time electricitypricing." - S. BorensteinMy concern: real-time pricing not TOU or contracts29 / 66 52. Smart Grid in 2012Midwest ISO TodayWednesday morning, April 10, 2013Real-time prices early morning in the Midwest, as I prepare this lecture:10 April 2013 06:15 10 April 2013 06:20 10 April 2013 07:3010 April 2013 07:35 10 April 2013 07:50 10 April 2013 08:3530 / 66 53. Smart Grid in 2012Midwest ISO TodayWednesday mid-morning, April 10, 2013Real-time prices mid-morning in the Midwest as I prepare this lecture:10 April 2013 10:15 10 April 2013 10:30 10 April 2013 10:3510 April 2013 11:30 10 April 2013 11:35 10 April 2013 12:0531 / 66 54. Smart Grid in 2012Midwest ISO TodayWednesday morning, April 11, 2013Real-time prices early this morning as I depart for work:11 April 2013 07:25 11 April 2013 07:30 11 April 2013 07:3510 April 2013 09:15 10 April 2013 09:20 10 April 2013 09:2532 / 66 55. Smart Grid in 2012Midwest ISO TodayLast week33 / 66 56. Smart Grid in 2012Midwest ISO TodayLast weekPrices depend on time, location and context33 / 66 57. Smart Grid in 2012Cold Causes Price SpikesTexas today: Winter of 20115am 10am 3pm 8pm5000100020003000$/MWhFebruary 2, 2011$/MWh10010204060805am 10am 3pm 8pmPower Prices inTexasJanuary 31, 201134 / 66 58. Smart Grid in 2012Cold Causes Price SpikesTexas today: Winter of 20115am 10am 3pm 8pm5000100020003000$/MWhFebruary 2, 2011$/MWh10010204060805am 10am 3pm 8pmPower Prices inTexasJanuary 31, 2011There will be multiple autopsies of the causes for the latest power breakdowns ... Whoproted o this near-meltdown and what can be done to incentivize power producers tomaintain adequate reserve capacity for emergencies rather than waiting for emergencywindfalls? HOUSTON CHRONICLE, Feb 12, 2011New report hits ERCOT, electricity deregulation: A report released Monday concludesthat electric deregulation has cost Texas residential consumers more than $11 billion inhigher rates... Dallas Morning News, Feb 14, 201134 / 66 59. Smart Grid in 2012Cold Causes Price SpikesTexas today: Winter of 20115am 10am 3pm 8pm5000100020003000$/MWhFebruary 2, 2011$/MWh10010204060805am 10am 3pm 8pmPower Prices inTexasJanuary 31, 2011Proposed Remedy Public Utility Commission of Texas (PUCT)... considering raising oer caps to as high as $9,000/MWh,among other measures. [Brattle Group, June 1 2012]34 / 66 60. Smart Grid in 2012Cold Causes Price SpikesTexas today: Winter of 20115am 10am 3pm 8pm5000100020003000$/MWhFebruary 2, 2011$/MWh10010204060805am 10am 3pm 8pmPower Prices inTexasJanuary 31, 2011Proposed Remedy Public Utility Commission of Texas (PUCT)... considering raising oer caps to as high as $9,000/MWh,among other measures. [Brattle Group, June 1 2012]Ecient Outcome! October 25, 2012: The Public Utility Commission of Texas hasapproved a series of increases in the ERCOT high system-wide oer cap (HCAP)starting June 1, 2013, with the cap eventually reaching $9,000/MWh.34 / 66 61. Smart Grid in 2012Day-Ahead Market OutcomesTexas today: Summer of 2011Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, based on the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT).Note: ERCOT North Zone includes Dallas/Fort Worth metro region and surrounding areas of Northeast Texas. On-Peakrefers to the 16-hour time block from hours ending 7:00 a.m. to 10:00 p.m. CDT on weekdays, excluding NERC holidaysERCOT North Zone - August 1-30, 2011Hourly day-ahead, daily on-peak, and monthly weighted average prices3,0002,0002,5001,5001,0000500wholesaleprice($/MWh)1 32 4 5 76 8 9 1110 12 13 1514 16 1817 19 20 2221 23 2524 26 27 2928 30 31hourly, day-ahead pricedaily, on-peak priceweighted average monthlyprice ($188/MWh)Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, based on the Electric Reliability Council ofTexas (ERCOT).Note: ERCOT North Zone includes Dallas/FortWorth metro region and surrounding areas of NortheastTexas. On-Peak refersto the 16-hour time block from hours ending 7:00 a.m. to 10:00 p.m. CDT on weekdays, excluding NERC holidays.35 / 66 62. Smart Grid in 2012Madness in New ZealandNew Zealand today: March 25, 2011A typical day in the New Zealand power market on the N. IslandStratfordOtahuhuhttp://www.electricityinfo.co.nz/050100Nodal Power Prices in NZ: $/MWh4am 9am 2pm 7pm36 / 66 63. Smart Grid in 2012Madness in New ZealandNew Zealand today: March 26, 2011$25 million dollars extracted by the generators in just six hoursStratfordOtahuhuhttp://www.electricityinfo.co.nz/4am 9am 2pm 7pm010,00020,000Nodal Power Prices in NZ: $/MWh37 / 66 64. Smart Grid in 2012Madness in New ZealandNew Zealand today: March 26, 2011>$20 million dollars demanded back from GenesisStratfordOtahuhuhttp://www.electricityinfo.co.nz/4am 9am 2pm 7pm010,00020,000Nodal Power Prices in NZ: $/MWhPreliminary view of NZ Electrical Authority: Genesis was not guilty ofmanipulative ... or deceptive conduct. However, high prices threatened to37 / 66 65. Smart Grid in 2012Madness in New ZealandNew Zealand today: March 26, 2011>$20 million dollars demanded back from GenesisStratfordOtahuhuhttp://www.electricityinfo.co.nz/4am 9am 2pm 7pm010,00020,000Nodal Power Prices in NZ: $/MWhPreliminary view of NZ Electrical Authority: Genesis was not guilty ofmanipulative ... or deceptive conduct. However, high prices threatened toundermine condence in, and ... damage the integrity and reputation of thewholesale electricity market 3:59 PM Friday May 6, 2011 www.nzherald.co.nz37 / 66 66. Smart Grid in 2012PNNL Prices to Devices ProjectsAutomation in the market Transactive Controls: Market-Based GridWiseTMControls for Building SystemsPkP+kTset = 72oFTmin = 67oF Tmax = 77oFPMeanPriceCurrent ZoneTemperatureBid PriceClearing PriceAdjusted ZoneSet Point TemperatureDesired orIdea Set PointMaximumSet PointMinimumSet PointBid CurveTcurrent = 75oFTset,a = 70oFPkPkP+kP+kTset = 72oFTmin = 67oF Tmax = 77oFPMeanPriceCurrent ZoneTemperatureBid PriceClearing PriceAdjusted ZoneSet Point TemperatureDesired orIdea Set PointMaximumSet PointMinimumSet PointBid CurveTcurrent = 75oFTset,a = 70oFTset = 72oFTmin = 67oF Tmax = 77oFPMeanPriceCurrent ZoneTemperatureClearing PriceAdjusted ZoneSet Point TemperatureDesired orIdea Set PointMaximumSet PointMinimumSet PointBid CurveTcurrent = 75oFTset,a = 70oFTset = 72oFTmin = 67oF Tmax = 77oFPMeanPricePMeanPriceCurrent ZoneTemperatureClearing PriceAdjusted ZoneSet Point TemperatureDesired orIdea Set PointMaximumSet PointMinimumSet PointBid CurveTcurrent = 75oFTset,a = 70oF Comfort$$$38 / 66 67. Smart Grid in 2012PNNL Prices to Devices ProjectsAutomation in the market Transactive Controls: Market-Based GridWiseTMControls for Building SystemsPkP+kTset = 72oFTmin = 67oF Tmax = 77oFPMeanPriceCurrent ZoneTemperatureBid PriceClearing PriceAdjusted ZoneSet Point TemperatureDesired orIdea Set PointMaximumSet PointMinimumSet PointBid CurveTcurrent = 75oFTset,a = 70oFPkPkP+kP+kTset = 72oFTmin = 67oF Tmax = 77oFPMeanPriceCurrent ZoneTemperatureBid PriceClearing PriceAdjusted ZoneSet Point TemperatureDesired orIdea Set PointMaximumSet PointMinimumSet PointBid CurveTcurrent = 75oFTset,a = 70oFTset = 72oFTmin = 67oF Tmax = 77oFPMeanPriceCurrent ZoneTemperatureClearing PriceAdjusted ZoneSet Point TemperatureDesired orIdea Set PointMaximumSet PointMinimumSet PointBid CurveTcurrent = 75oFTset,a = 70oFTset = 72oFTmin = 67oF Tmax = 77oFPMeanPricePMeanPriceCurrent ZoneTemperatureClearing PriceAdjusted ZoneSet Point TemperatureDesired orIdea Set PointMaximumSet PointMinimumSet PointBid CurveTcurrent = 75oFTset,a = 70oF Comfort$$$Proportional control: Comfort = k Price38 / 66 68. Smart Grid in 2012PNNL Prices to Devices ProjectsAutomation in the market Transactive Controls: Market-Based GridWiseTMControls for Building Systems3002001000 5 10 15 20 250$/MWhHourMean PriceZone Bid PriceMarket Clearing PriceProportional control: Comfort = k Price39 / 66 69. Smart Grid in 2012PNNL Prices to Devices ProjectsAutomation in the market Transactive Controls: Market-Based GridWiseTMControls for Building SystemsMean PriceZone Bid PriceMarket Clearing Price3002001000 5 10 15 20 250ConsumerAngerHourProportional control: Comfort = k Price40 / 66 70. Some ScienceTorqueSpeedLowCostEconomics with Engineering41 / 66 71. Some ScienceTorqueSpeedLowCostEconomics with EngineeringConcerning real-time pricing not TOU or contracts41 / 66 72. Some ScienceEquilibrium with Dynamics & Network ConstraintsEntropic pricesTheorem 1: When dynamics (temporal constraints) are taken intoaccount, price is never equal to marginal cost [5, 4, 3, 1]42 / 66 73. Some ScienceEquilibrium with Dynamics & Network ConstraintsEntropic pricesTheorem 1: When dynamics (temporal constraints) are taken intoaccount, price is never equal to marginal cost [5, 4, 3, 1]Equilibrium priceThe equilibrium price process is a function of equilibrium reserves:P(t) = p(Re(t))The marginal value of power to the consumer.42 / 66 74. Some ScienceEquilibrium with Dynamics & Network ConstraintsEntropic pricesTheorem 1: When dynamics (temporal constraints) are taken intoaccount, price is never equal to marginal cost [5, 4, 3, 1]Equilibrium priceThe equilibrium price process is a function of equilibrium reserves:P(t) = p(Re(t))The marginal value of power to the consumer.Proof: Lagrangian decomposition,as in the static Second Welfare Theorem42 / 66 75. Some ScienceEquilibrium with Dynamics & Network ConstraintsEntropic pricesWhat is marginal value?It is not always obvious. With the introduction of network constraints,43 / 66 76. Some ScienceEquilibrium with Dynamics & Network ConstraintsEntropic pricesWhat is marginal value?It is not always obvious. With the introduction of network constraints,Prices can go well beyond marginal value (as dened in static model)Prices can go well below zero[Dynamic competitive equilibria in electricity markets. Wang et. al. 2011]43 / 66 77. Some ScienceEquilibrium with Dynamics & Network ConstraintsEntropic pricesWhat is marginal value?It is not always obvious. With the introduction of network constraints,Prices can go well beyond marginal value (as dened in static model)Prices can go well below zero[Dynamic competitive equilibria in electricity markets. Wang et. al. 2011]Without price-caps, Australia might look like an ecient equilibrium:Price(Aus$/MWh)Price(Aus$/MWh)Volume(MW)Volume(MW)DemandDemandPricesPrices24:0023:0022:0021:0020:0019:0018:0017:0016:0015:0014:0013:0012:0011:0010:0009:0008:0007:0006:0005:0004:0003:0002:0001:0000:0024:0023:0022:0021:0020:0019:0018:0017:0016:0015:0014:0013:0012:0011:0010:0009:0008:0007:0006:0005:0004:0003:0002:0001:0000:0019,00010,0001,4001,2001,00080060040020001,0000- 1,000- 1,5001,000-1,0009,0008,00010,0007,0006,0005,0004,0003,0002,0001,0000TasmaniaVictoria43 / 66 78. Some ScienceSustainable business?Marginal value of electricity,$250,000/MWh (?)Purchase Price $/MWhPrevious weekSpinning reserve prices PX prices $/MWh10015005020025010203040506070Texas: February2,2011California: July2000Illinois:July1998Ontario: November,2005010002000300040005000Mon Tues Weds Thurs Fri Mon Tues WedsWeds Thurs Fri Sat SunTues Weds ThursTime3 6 9 12 15 18 213 6 9 12 15 18 213 6 9 12 15 18 21Demand in MW Last Updated 11:00 AM Predispatch 1975.11 Dispatch 19683.5Hourly Ontario Energy Price $/MWh Last Updated 11:00 AM Predispatch 72.79 Dispatch 90.822000210001800015000150010005000ForecastPricesForecastDemand5am 10am 3pm 8pm5000100020003000$/MWhAverage priceis usually $30$/MWh44 / 66 79. Some ScienceSustainable business?Marginal value of electricity,$250,000/MWh (?)Purchase Price $/MWhPrevious weekSpinning reserve prices PX prices $/MWh10015005020025010203040506070Texas: February2,2011California: July2000Illinois:July1998Ontario: November,2005010002000300040005000Mon Tues Weds Thurs Fri Mon Tues WedsWeds Thurs Fri Sat SunTues Weds ThursTime3 6 9 12 15 18 213 6 9 12 15 18 213 6 9 12 15 18 21Demand in MW Last Updated 11:00 AM Predispatch 1975.11 Dispatch 19683.5Hourly Ontario Energy Price $/MWh Last Updated 11:00 AM Predispatch 72.79 Dispatch 90.822000210001800015000150010005000ForecastPricesForecastDemand5am 10am 3pm 8pm5000100020003000$/MWhAverage priceis usually $30$/MWhHowever,44 / 66 80. Some ScienceSustainable business?Marginal value of electricity,$250,000/MWh (?)Purchase Price $/MWhPrevious weekSpinning reserve prices PX prices $/MWh10015005020025010203040506070Texas: February2,2011California: July2000Illinois:July1998Ontario: November,2005010002000300040005000Mon Tues Weds Thurs Fri Mon Tues WedsWeds Thurs Fri Sat SunTues Weds ThursTime3 6 9 12 15 18 213 6 9 12 15 18 213 6 9 12 15 18 21Demand in MW Last Updated 11:00 AM Predispatch 1975.11 Dispatch 19683.5Hourly Ontario Energy Price $/MWh Last Updated 11:00 AM Predispatch 72.79 Dispatch 90.822000210001800015000150010005000ForecastPricesForecastDemand5am 10am 3pm 8pm5000100020003000$/MWhAverage priceis usually $30$/MWhHowever,Theorem 2: In this equilibrium, the average price isprecisely the average marginal costProof: Lagrangian relaxation of initial condition.44 / 66 81. Some ScienceSustainable business?Marginal value of electricity,$250,000/MWh (?)Purchase Price $/MWhPrevious weekSpinning reserve prices PX prices $/MWh10015005020025010203040506070Texas: February2,2011California: July2000Illinois:July1998Ontario: November,2005010002000300040005000Mon Tues Weds Thurs Fri Mon Tues WedsWeds Thurs Fri Sat SunTues Weds ThursTime3 6 9 12 15 18 213 6 9 12 15 18 213 6 9 12 15 18 21Demand in MW Last Updated 11:00 AM Predispatch 1975.11 Dispatch 19683.5Hourly Ontario Energy Price $/MWh Last Updated 11:00 AM Predispatch 72.79 Dispatch 90.822000210001800015000150010005000ForecastPricesForecastDemand5am 10am 3pm 8pm5000100020003000$/MWhAverage priceis usually $30$/MWhHowever,Theorem 2: In this equilibrium, the average price isprecisely the average marginal costProof: Lagrangian relaxation of initial condition.Is this a sustainable business?44 / 66 82. Some ScienceMore Engineering: Where is the Missing Money?FERC Order 755New rules for fair treatment of resources participating in regulation marketsTimeRegulation Required @ MISO0200400600-400-200Current method of regulation compensation does not fairly accountfor the regulation service provided.45 / 66 83. Some ScienceMore Engineering: Where is the Missing Money?FERC Order 755New rules for fair treatment of resources participating in regulation marketsTimeRegulation Required @ MISO0200400600-400-200Current method of regulation compensation does not fairly accountfor the regulation service provided.Requires ISOs to pay resources based on actual service provided45 / 66 84. Some ScienceMore Engineering: Where is the Missing Money?FERC Order 755New rules for fair treatment of resources participating in regulation marketsTimeRegulation Required @ MISO0200400600-400-200Current method of regulation compensation does not fairly accountfor the regulation service provided.Requires ISOs to pay resources based on actual service providedAnd, how much is that?45 / 66 85. Some ScienceThe Future as seen by FERC TodayFERC Order 755TimeRegulation Required @ MISO0200400600-400-200Possible payment plan, consider 1 of storage regulation,Payment T0ddtG(t)| dt46 / 66 86. Some ScienceThe Future as seen by FERC TodayFERC Order 755TimeRegulation Required @ MISO0200400600-400-200Possible payment plan, consider 1 of storage regulation,Payment T0ddtG(t)| dtHmmm....46 / 66 87. Some ScienceThe Future as seen by FERC TodayFERC Order 755TimeRegulation Required @ MISO0200400600-400-200Possible payment plan, consider 1 of storage regulation,Payment T0ddtG(t)| dtHmmm....Lets have a closer look ...46 / 66 88. Some ScienceThe Future as seen by FERC TodayFERC Order 755TimeRegulation Required @ MISO0200400600-400-200Last month, the Midwest ISO found that their payments were providing anincentive for responsive generation,5,0004,0003,0002,0001,0000Fast Middle SlowJan & Feb 2012Day-AheadAverage Total Daily Regulation Volume in MW5,0004,0003,0002,0001,0000Fast Middle SlowReal-Time Jan & Feb 2013Since addition of mileage product, regulation has shifted fromslower to faster ramping resourcesPayment based on wear & tear** https://www.misoenergy.org/Library/Repository/Meeting%20Material/Stakeholder/BOD/Markets%20Committee/2013/20130327/20130327%20Markets%20Committee%20of%20the%20BOD%20Item%2005%20Frequency%20Regulation%20Compensation.pdfMarch 27, 2013 document from Midwest ISOddt(tG ) dt47 / 66 89. Some ScienceMore Engineering: Where is the Missing Money?Addressing FERC Order 755World-view, from eyes of a coal generator operator:Control must respect dynamics & costs48 / 66 90. Some ScienceMore Engineering: Where is the Missing Money?Addressing FERC Order 755World-view, from eyes of a coal generator operator:Control must respect dynamics & costsCost of generation:Includes G and ddt G,shut-down, O&M, investment, ...48 / 66 91. Some ScienceMore Engineering: Where is the Missing Money?Addressing FERC Order 755World-view, from eyes of a coal generator operator:Control must respect dynamics & costsCost of generation:Includes G and ddt G,shut-down, O&M, investment, ...What is marginal cost?TorqueSpeedLowCost48 / 66 92. Some ScienceMore Engineering: Where is the Missing Money?Addressing FERC Order 755World-view, from eyes of a coal generator operator:Control must respect dynamics & costsCost of generation:Includes G and ddt G,shut-down, O&M, investment, ...What is marginal cost?TorqueSpeedLowCostTheorem 3: If c(G, ddt G) = ce(G) + cw( ddtG) then48 / 66 93. Some ScienceMore Engineering: Where is the Missing Money?Addressing FERC Order 755World-view, from eyes of a coal generator operator:Control must respect dynamics & costsCost of generation:Includes G and ddt G,shut-down, O&M, investment, ...What is marginal cost?TorqueSpeedLowCostTheorem 3: If c(G, ddt G) = ce(G) + cw( ddtG) thenE[P] = E[ ce (G)]48 / 66 94. Some ScienceMore Engineering: Where is the Missing Money?Addressing FERC Order 755World-view, from eyes of a coal generator operator:Control must respect dynamics & costsCost of generation:Includes G and ddt G,shut-down, O&M, investment, ...What is marginal cost?TorqueSpeedLowCostTheorem 3: If c(G, ddt G) = ce(G) + cw( ddtG) thenE[P] = E[ ce (G)]Competitive equilibrium never compensates for wear and tear48 / 66 95. Conclusions & SuggestionsConclusions & Suggestions49 / 66 96. Conclusions & SuggestionsWhat is the Value of Power?Answers to Quiz #1Wind generationfor one day in thePacific NorthwestPrice is $20/MWh02000400060008000April 6MW1600 MW average outputValue = 1600 MW x 24 hours x $20/MWh = $768,000 ?50 / 66 97. Conclusions & SuggestionsWhat is the Value of Power?Answers to Quiz #1 Wind generationfor one day in thePacific NorthwestPrice is $20/MWh02000400060008000April 6MW1600 MW average outputValue = 1600 MW x 24 hours x $20/MWh = $768,000 ?Answer: Correct!Electrons are electrons, so add them up, and put them on the market!51 / 66 98. Conclusions & SuggestionsWhat is the Value of Power?Answers to Quiz #1 Wind generationfor one day in thePacific NorthwestPrice is $20/MWh02000400060008000April 6MW1600 MW average outputValue = 1600 MW x 24 hours x $20/MWh = $768,000 ?Answer: False!!Spring 2012 report from this region:Annual expected value of oversupply costs estimated at $12 million peryear, with 300,000 MWh of wind curtailmentwww.nwcouncil.org/media/11074/2012 1212SupplementalReport.pdf51 / 66 99. Conclusions & SuggestionsWhat is the Value of Power?Answers to Quiz #1 Wind generationfor one day in thePacific NorthwestPrice is $20/MWh02000400060008000April 6MW1600 MW average outputValue = 1600 MW x 24 hours x $20/MWh = $768,000 ?Answer: False!!Spring 2012 report from this region:Annual expected value of oversupply costs estimated at $12 million peryear, with 300,000 MWh of wind curtailmentThe rst answer would be correct if we hadinfrastructure in place to mitigate volatilitywww.nwcouncil.org/media/11074/2012 1212SupplementalReport.pdf51 / 66 100. Conclusions & SuggestionsWhat is the Value of Power?Answers to Quiz #2Zero net powerPrice is $20/MWh800600-10004002000200400600800April 3 April 4 April 5 April 6 April 7 April 8 April 9MWValue = 0 MW x 7 days x $20/MWh = $0 ?52 / 66 101. Conclusions & SuggestionsWhat is the Value of Power?Answers to Quiz #2 Zero net powerPrice is $20/MWh800600-10004002000200400600800April 3 April 4 April 5 April 6 April 7 April 8 April 9MWValue = 0 MW x 7 days x $20/MWh = $0 ?Answer: Correct!The total power is zero, and the 800 MW perturbation isinconsequential given the 8000 MW load53 / 66 102. Conclusions & SuggestionsWhat is the Value of Power?Answers to Quiz #2 Zero net powerPrice is $20/MWh800600-10004002000200400600800April 3 April 4 April 5 April 6 April 7 April 8 April 9MWValue = 0 MW x 7 days x $20/MWh = $0 ?Answer: False!Disturbance to the grid is costly, the actual value is $500,000 (guess)53 / 66 103. Conclusions & SuggestionsWhat is the Value of Power?Answers to Quiz #2 Zero net powerPrice is $20/MWh800600-10004002000200400600800April 3 April 4 April 5 April 6 April 7 April 8 April 9MWValue = 0 MW x 7 days x $20/MWh = $0 ?Answer: False!Disturbance to the grid is costly, the actual value is $500,000 (guess)Answer: False!!This is the BPA regulation signal! The actual value is ...53 / 66 104. Conclusions & SuggestionsWhat is the Value of Power?Answers to Quiz #2April 3 April 4 April 5 April 6 April 7 April 8 April 954 / 66 105. Conclusions & SuggestionsWhat is the Value of Power?Answers to Quiz #2Answer: False!!This is the BPA regulation signal! The actual value is ...55 / 66 106. Conclusions & SuggestionsWhat is the Value of Power?Answers to Quiz #2Answer: False!!This is the BPA regulation signal! The actual value is ...02000400060008000April 3 April 4 April 5 April 6 April 7 April 8 April 9MWMWLoadGenerationfrom WindBalancing reserves deployedValue no less than theSeattle economy?800600-10004002000200400600800April 3 April 4 April 5 April 6 April 7 April 8 April 9Curtailment tresholds55 / 66 107. Conclusions & SuggestionsWhat is the Value of Power?Extra credit: What if one resource cannot provide all of the balancing needs?BalancingReservesDesiredWhats thevalue of this:800600-10004002000200400600800800600-1000400200200400600800April 3 April 4 April 5 April 6 April 7 April 8 April 9MWMW56 / 66 108. Conclusions & SuggestionsWhat is the Value of Power?Extra credit: What if one resource cannot provide all of the balancing needs?BalancingReservesDesiredWhats thevalue of this:800600-10004002000200400600800800600-10004002000200400600800April 3 April 4 April 5 April 6 April 7 April 8 April 9MWMW57 / 66 109. Conclusions & SuggestionsWhat is the Value of Power?Extra credit: What if the shape isnt quite right?BalancingReservesDesiredWhats thevalue of this:800600-10004002000200400600800800600-1000400200200400600800April 3 April 4 April 5 April 6 April 7 April 8 April 9MWMW58 / 66 110. Conclusions & SuggestionsWhat is the Value of Power?Extra credit: What if the shape isnt quite right?BalancingReservesDesiredWhats thevalue of this:Delay is deadlyin a control systemAnswer,800600-10004002000200400600800800600-1000400200200400600800April 3 April 4 April 5 April 6 April 7 April 8 April 9MWMW59 / 66 111. Conclusions & SuggestionsSmart Grid 2020A playground for control theoryBaseline generationVolatility from natureConsumer demand (est.)Power ConsumptionQuality of LifePower GridIncreasing timescale of ancillary service, measured in HzGovernorsFlywheelsCoal GenerationFlexible ManufacturingDistributed Data CentersCapacitorBanksHydro GenerationGasTurbine GenerationHeating,Ventillation & CoolingBatteries60 / 66 112. Conclusions & SuggestionsThe current RTM paradigm must be reconsideredWhy have real time markets?No value has been demonstrated for real-time markets.61 / 66 113. Conclusions & SuggestionsThe current RTM paradigm must be reconsideredWhy have real time markets?No value has been demonstrated for real-time markets.Empirical evidence: We cannot distinguish robbery from eciency.61 / 66 114. Conclusions & SuggestionsThe current RTM paradigm must be reconsideredWhy have real time markets?No value has been demonstrated for real-time markets.Empirical evidence: We cannot distinguish robbery from eciency.IsThis A Free Market For Fire Fighters?61 / 66 115. Conclusions & SuggestionsThe current RTM paradigm must be reconsideredWhy have real time markets?No value has been demonstrated for real-time markets.Empirical evidence: We cannot distinguish robbery from eciency.IsThis A Free Market For Fire Fighters?Why then would you use real-time prices to control devices?61 / 66 116. Conclusions & SuggestionsThe current RTM paradigm must be reconsideredWhy have real time markets?No value has been demonstrated for real-time markets.Empirical evidence: We cannot distinguish robbery from eciency.IsThis A Free Market For Fire Fighters?Why then would you use real-time prices to control devices?The EIA study shows that there are alternatives61 / 66 117. Conclusions & SuggestionsThe current RTM paradigm must be reconsideredWhy have real time markets?IsThis A Free Market For Fire Fighters?62 / 66 118. Conclusions & SuggestionsThe current RTM paradigm must be reconsideredWhy have real time markets?IsThis A Free Market For Fire Fighters? ... One result of this divorce of the theory from its subjectmatter has been that the entities whose decisions economists areengaged in analyzing have not been made the subject of studyand in consequence lack any substance. ...consumers withouthumanity, rms without organization, and even exchange withoutmarketsR. Coase, 198862 / 66 119. Conclusions & SuggestionsThe current RTM paradigm must be reconsideredAlternativesTOU prices for peak shaving, andContracts for real-time demand-response services63 / 66 120. Conclusions & SuggestionsThe current RTM paradigm must be reconsideredAlternativesTOU prices for peak shaving, andContracts for real-time demand-response servicesSuccessful contracts today: Constellation Energy, Alcoa, residential poolpumps, commercial buildings (see new work at Univ. of Florida), ...Eciency loss, but utility and consumers each have reliable services63 / 66 121. Conclusions & SuggestionsThe current RTM paradigm must be reconsideredAlternativesNew smart appliances that can facilitate these contractsControl theory to make this all work:We dont know why the grid is so robust today. Introducingall of these dynamics will lead to new control challenges.63 / 66 122. Conclusions & SuggestionsThe current RTM paradigm must be reconsideredAlternativesNew smart appliances that can facilitate these contractsControl theory to make this all work:We dont know why the grid is so robust today. Introducingall of these dynamics will lead to new control challenges.Energy policy that is guided by an understanding of both physics andeconomics63 / 66 123. Conclusions & SuggestionsThe current RTM paradigm must be reconsideredAlternativesNew smart appliances that can facilitate these contractsControl theory to make this all work:We dont know why the grid is so robust today. Introducingall of these dynamics will lead to new control challenges.Energy policy that is guided by an understanding of both physics andeconomicsThank You!63 / 66 124. Conclusions & SuggestionsControl TechniquesFORComplex NetworksSean MeynPre-publication version for on-line viewing. Monograph available for purchase at your favorite retailerMore information available at http://www.cambridge.org/us/catalogue/catalogue.asp?isbn=9780521884419Markov ChainsandStochastic StabilityS. P. Meyn and R. L. TweedieAugust 2008 Pre-publication version for on-line viewing. Monograph to appear Februrary 2009(f)
