Convergence, online data and the new target demographic · Convergence, online data and the new...

Convergence, online data and the new target demographic

Guy Bisson Research Director, Television

IHS Electronics & Media

Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Traditional mass-media advertising still dominant from revenue perspective…

2

0

20.000

40.000

60.000

80.000

100.000

120.000

€m

Net advertising market in Europe

Mobile Online OOH Cinema Radio Magazines Newspapers TV

Source: IHS Screen Digest


From averages to individuals

3

“It is marketing on the averages, where today we are moving rapidly into marketing of the differences. […] no matter how you promote and advertise, if you don’t have a database soon, you’ll be out of business.”

(Prof. Don Schultz, 1995)

1950s 1980s 2000s


In practice: now buying individual impressions online

CPM = 1 eCPM 1/10%=10 €2.4

€0.6

€1.2

€0.4

€6.8 €1.1

Individual impressions, individual valuation

Blackbox Assumptions about website’s readers

4


Analogy: Don Draper enters Wall Street

5

• Face-to-face interaction • Submit campaign req & est. commitments • Ratecard as negotiation basis • Identify best value publishers

• Audience-driven approach (real, inferred) • Context and content secondary • Liquid demand, inventory, and prices • Algorithmic, automated, real-time • Multiple buyers bidding on same inventory


‘Big data’ fuels new trading system

0 1.000 2.000 3.000 4.000 5.000 6.000 7.000 8.000

Feb-

10

Mrz

-10

Apr-

10

Mai

-10

Jun-

10

Jul-1

0 Au

g-10

Se

p-10

O

kt-1

0 N

ov-1

0 D

ez-1

0 Ja

n-11

Fe

b-11

M

rz-1

1 Ap

r-11

M

ai-1

1 Ju

n-11

Ju

l-11

Aug-

11

Typical trading platform: Auctions per day (m)

•Volume of data that exceeds traditional processing methodologies •Variety of data types and sources •Velocity of data flowing in and out of the systems •From hypothesis and causality to knowledge discovery in data (KDD) •Dynamic adjustment of campaign

Aggregate report Human Analysis Petascale computing & Machine learning


Example: ad management dashboard


Display growth factors: a trading mechanism is driving growth

8

7%

12%

19%

49%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

Total Display

Video

Mobile Display

Programmatic buying

UK online display CAGR 2010-2016 (%)

Source: IHS Screen Digest

By 2016, Programmatic buying will represent 44% of value of UK online display advertising


JANYS: Sentiment mining social media

• Sentiment analysis allows for the measurement of mood of writers across huge amounts of text • Traditional techniques to infer mood in writing is often expensive • Luckily, social media messages are often short

• First: assign mood scores to hundreds of thousands of words using machine learning • Second: create mood scores for each message and average over time and location • MACHINE LEARNING EXAMPLES: My new Ford Focus needs repair again, so frustrating Just back from road trip, loved the comfort of my new Accord Visualize trends over course of day, week and can overlay geography with location of users


But leading to a complex, networked ecosystem

Source: Luma Partners


But Google knows everything

11

Consumer Advertiser Publisher


The new TV channel

12


Data-driven advertising solutions are becoming pervasive across media platforms

13

Real-time

bidding

Online

TV

OOH

Radio


Cost-wise, streaming migration is already an option for more niche thematic channels

14

CDN COSTS

MORE $$$$

LESS $

Weekly CDN costs vs. weekly satellite costs based on average viewing Jan-Aug 2012 (BARB). In all streaming calculations we have assumed 1.7 viewers per stream.

Vs. Broadcast

+1


But there is a potential ‘cost crunch’ for broadcast players in the OTT sector

-

0,02

0,04

0,06

0,08

0,10

0,12

0,14

€m

BBC1 single feed

SD satellite HD satellite SD satellite + terrestrial HD satellite + terrestrial

15

Terrestrial costs assume MPEG-4 for both SD and HD. Streaming costs assume 1.7 viewers per stream. Calculations are for single feed not including regional variations.


But there is a potential ‘cost crunch’ for broadcast players in the OTT sector

- 0,5 1,0 1,5 2,0 2,5 3,0 3,5 4,0 4,5 5,0

€m

BBC1 single feed

SD satellite HD satellite SD satellite + terrestrial HD satellite + terrestrial SD Unicast HD Unicast

16

Terrestrial costs assume MPEG-4 for both SD and HD. Streaming costs assume 1.7 viewers per stream. Calculations are for single feed not including regional variations.


Companies are therefore developing their own CDN infrastructure to deliver content OTT

• The most obvious example of this is Netflix with its Open-Connect project: • Launched in June 2012 with updates in January 2013 bringing 1080p HD

and 3D to Open Connect partner ISPs.

• The network has allowed the company to launch in 6 European territories without a full commercial CDN partner.

• Now serves the majority of its international traffic through Open Connect.

• Followed much more recently by Virgin Media

17


YouTube has repositioned away from UGC towards professional content

Profess-ional 98%

Mixture 0%

UGC 2%

Feb/March video views split by content creator category – top 50 YouTube networks

• Circa 115bn views generated by the top 50 YouTube networks in the last month. • 98 per cent of these views were of

networks with a primarily professional content focus. • Label-backed music service Vevo

skews this analysis however, and is responsible for over 9 in 10 views from the top 50 networks.

18

Source: IHS analysis of Social Blade Network data


What is more significant, is the number of major traditional production groups getting involved

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

France Germany UK

New YouTube Channels by major group (#)

Shine Zodiak Media ITN Fremantle Media Endemol BBC WW All3Media

19

• While YouTube has historically been the reserve of ‘dog on skateboard’ and music videos, latest push sees significant professional additions from major TV producers/distributors • Part of the advertising inventory is available on Doubleclick and

biddable. This ad model at the fringe end of TV is to feed back on the wider TV ad ecosystem.


Broadcasters and production conglomerates such as RTL Group now perceive YouTube with mixed feelings

• YouTube now seen as a major commercial partner, but also a serious threat by conglomerate broadcasters/ producers • Significant

references in the latest investor filings from RTL Group

20


And as OTT SVoD services mature, they switch from being movie platforms to being TV platforms

TV 46% Movies

54%

Lovefilm UK views by content category

TV 80%

Movies 20%

Netflix US views by content category


Now virtual MSO trend could also lead to ‘beyond borders’ expansion in pay TV and targetting

• Currently, pay TV operators are typically regionally constrained – roll-out costs for launching ‘physical’ product in new markets are considerable. • But with growing usage of online video, and

growth in connected devices, potential for pay TV operators to consider international rollouts. • Some premium channel groups already doing this to

target international diaspora – e.g. Zee TV.

• Regulatory moves in Europe could lead to shifts

in rights landscapes and may prompt players such as BSkyB to launch more extensive operations overseas. • Acquisition of Acetrax by BSkyB, plus growing

international channels footprint suggests BSkyB is already exploring this route.


Convergence and segmentation today and tomorrow

• Targeting enabled by online advertising and the data feeds available has had a knock-on effect on all media. • Data processing demands are making programmatic buying a necessity as well

as a potential benefit to advertisers. • Online advertising ecosystem is highly complex with a variety of non-linear

relationships. Programmatic buying is already migrating to old-world media. • OTT TV delivery opens up new opportunities to bring the best practice from

online to the TV ecosystem. • And several online powerhouses are migrating their business model to include

TV-style content, working with the same content suppliers as traditional TV players. • That means Volume, Variety and Velocity is also the future for TV segmentation

and buying.

23

Copyright © 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 24

Thank you

[email protected]

@tvintelligence

www.screendigest.com www.ihs.com

mailto:[email protected]

http://www.screendigest.com/

http://www.ihs.com/

Date post:	03-Jun-2020
Category:	Documents
Upload:	others
View:	13 times
Download:	0 times

Convergence, online data and the new target demographic · Convergence, online data and the new...

Documents