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Converging Insecurities: climate, energy, water and food

ANDREW CAMPBELLCharles Darwin Symposium, 13 October 2011

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• The age of cheap, abundant fossil fuel energy is coming to an end

• The age of carbon accounting and pricing is here

• Water security is a looming issue for northern Australia

• Food security will be affected by all of these, and climatic events

• Each of these has their own imperatives, but their interactions are equally, if not more important

• We tend to deal with these issues in science, planning and policy silos

• How could the NT lead the way in developing better approaches?

Key Points

The climate is changing……

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• Warmer temperatures on land, and in the ocean− Days >35˚C to rise from 11/year to more than 60/year by 2030

• Probably wetter Wets and possibly drier Dry seasons

• Probably fewer cyclones, but higher % of Cat 4 & 5− 60% increase in intensity of severe storms by 2030

• Rising sea levels (currently 7mm/year)

• Increased risk of mosquito-borne diseases

• Potential change in range of weeds & pests

• Likely increasing challenge of managing fire extent and intensity

• Increased heat stress and ticks on cattle (20% impact on beef production by 2030)

Predicted climate change impacts, Top End

Presentation Title | 00 Month 2010 | Slide 5

Observed rates of relative mean sea level rise (mm/year) over last

18 years

+7.1

+7.5

+6.1+7.5

+6.9

+3.9

+2.9

+4.2

+3.0

+2.3

+2.5

+1.2

+1.5

+1.8

Credit: Prof Eric Valentine, CDUSEAFRAME May 1990 Datum +0.3mm/yr

Presentation Title | 00 Month 2010 | Slide 6

Darwin spring tide, late wet season

Credit: Prof Eric Valentine, CDU

1m InundationCredit: Prof Eric Valentine, CDU

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Climate change is not happening in a vacuum, but in parallel with other major drivers:

• Population growth (on track for 9 billion by 2050)

• Changing consumption patterns

• Depletion of easily accessible oil reserves− Oil discovery peaked in the 1960s, and oil production is in decline,

with 4 barrels consumed for every 1 discovered − 49 of 65 oil producing regions are past their peak point− The average post-peak production rate of decline is 6.7% per year− Australia has been a net importer since 1985, on track for depletion

by 2020

Converging Insecurities

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• Climate change Direct impacts Impacts of climate change policies – e.g. carbon markets

• Energy — the era of cheap, abundant fossil fuels is coming to a close

• Water Every calorie we consume uses one litre in its production

Every litre weighs one kilogram — energy intensive to distribute it

Per capita freshwater availability declining steeply (globally)

• Food — need to increase world production by 70% by 2050

Converging Insecurities (2)

Feeding the worldFeeding the world

• The world needs to increase food production by about 70% by 2050, & improve distribution

• We have done this in the past, mainly through clearing, cultivating and irrigating more land– and intensification, better varieties, more fertiliser, pesticides

• Climate change and oil depletion is narrowing those options, with limits to water, land, energy & nutrients. We need to grow food:– Using less land, water & energy and emitting less carbon– Improving nutrition, distribution, animal welfare, pollution– Looking after rural landscapes, biodiversity, animal welfare, amenity & communities

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Profound technical challengesProfound technical challenges

1.1. To decouple economic growth from carbon emissionsTo decouple economic growth from carbon emissions

2.2. To adapt to an increasingly difficult climate To adapt to an increasingly difficult climate

3.3. To increase water productivityTo increase water productivity—— decoupling the 1 litre per calorie relationshipdecoupling the 1 litre per calorie relationship

4.4. To increase energy productivityTo increase energy productivity– more food energy out per unit of energy inmore food energy out per unit of energy in

– while shifting from fossil fuels to renewable energywhile shifting from fossil fuels to renewable energy

5.5. To develop more sustainable food systemsTo develop more sustainable food systems– while conserving biodiversity andwhile conserving biodiversity and

– improving landscape amenity, soil health, animal welfare & human healthimproving landscape amenity, soil health, animal welfare & human health

6.6. TO DO ALL OF THE ABOVE SIMULTANEOUSLY!TO DO ALL OF THE ABOVE SIMULTANEOUSLY!—— improving sustainability and resilience improving sustainability and resilience

We need a third agricultural revolution

• High level goals: e.g. doubling food & fibre production while High level goals: e.g. doubling food & fibre production while doubling water productivity, and becoming a net energy doubling water productivity, and becoming a net energy producer from farming & pastoral landsproducer from farming & pastoral lands

• How to get there? How to get there?

– Farming systems that make more efficient use of and conserve water, Farming systems that make more efficient use of and conserve water, energy, nutrients, carbon and biodiversityenergy, nutrients, carbon and biodiversity

– Smart metering, sensing, telemetry, robotics, guidance, biotechSmart metering, sensing, telemetry, robotics, guidance, biotech– Better understanding of soil carbon & microbial activityBetter understanding of soil carbon & microbial activity– Radically reducing waste in all parts of the food chainRadically reducing waste in all parts of the food chain– Farming systems producing renewable (Farming systems producing renewable (22ndnd gen gen) bioenergy) bioenergy

• Also producing energy from wasteAlso producing energy from waste

– Urban and peri-urban food productionUrban and peri-urban food production– Attracting talented young people into careers in agricultureAttracting talented young people into careers in agriculture12

Climate-smart land use in the Top End

• Managing whole landscapes to increase carbon storageManaging whole landscapes to increase carbon storage– Smarter fire regimesSmarter fire regimes– Better control of weeds and feral animalsBetter control of weeds and feral animals– Substantial co-benefits for biodiversity (wildlife and plants)Substantial co-benefits for biodiversity (wildlife and plants)– More sustainable livelihoods for traditional owners and pastoralistsMore sustainable livelihoods for traditional owners and pastoralists

• Increasing food production for local resilience and food securityIncreasing food production for local resilience and food security– Groundwater (sustainable yield) and wastewater-based irrigation mosaicsGroundwater (sustainable yield) and wastewater-based irrigation mosaics– Within and near to population centresWithin and near to population centres

• Integrating production of renewable energyIntegrating production of renewable energy– Large scale (solar, geothermal, tidal) for regional centres and exportLarge scale (solar, geothermal, tidal) for regional centres and export– Small scale (solar, wind, biodiesel, biomass) for households and remote firms Small scale (solar, wind, biodiesel, biomass) for households and remote firms

& communities & communities

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The International Dimension• Is Darwin a northern outpost of a continent of 20m people, or a

rich southern knowledge centre for a region of 500m people?

• 45 minutes from Darwin, 1 million people in Timor-Leste– ~40% people malnourished (WFP VAM 2005)~40% people malnourished (WFP VAM 2005)– many people seasonally hungrymany people seasonally hungry– food production varies widely with seasonal conditions, but rarely exceeds food production varies widely with seasonal conditions, but rarely exceeds

consumption, so imports are crucialconsumption, so imports are crucial– many key elements of a productive and sustainable system don’t existmany key elements of a productive and sustainable system don’t exist

• Australia has major opportunities to export know-howAustralia has major opportunities to export know-how– Agricultural education and extension to develop a skilled workforce (professionals and Agricultural education and extension to develop a skilled workforce (professionals and

practitioners [farmers & food processors])practitioners [farmers & food processors])

– R&D to develop & refine locally useful knowledge and to develop new solutionsR&D to develop & refine locally useful knowledge and to develop new solutions

– Catchment management to look after the best soils and protect water resourcesCatchment management to look after the best soils and protect water resources

– Water management to protect water quality & improve water productivityWater management to protect water quality & improve water productivity

– Renewable energy systems to become independent from imported oil Renewable energy systems to become independent from imported oil 14

• How can this all ‘fit’ at a landscape and regional scale?How can this all ‘fit’ at a landscape and regional scale?

• The landscape needs to be re-plumbed and re-wiredThe landscape needs to be re-plumbed and re-wired• We need new planning approaches that:We need new planning approaches that:

– are robust under a range of climate change & demographic scenariosare robust under a range of climate change & demographic scenarios– build in resilience thinking build in resilience thinking

(e.g. improve habitat connectivity & buffering, protect refugia)(e.g. improve habitat connectivity & buffering, protect refugia)– accommodate carbon pollution mitigation options accommodate carbon pollution mitigation options

(energy, transport, food)(energy, transport, food)– safeguard productive soil and allow for increased food productionsafeguard productive soil and allow for increased food production– facilitate recycling of water, nutrients and energyfacilitate recycling of water, nutrients and energy

Planning landscapes & infrastructure

Scales for response to climate change

• Many of the main drivers of biodiversity loss operate at the landscape-scale e.g. habitat fragmentation, invasive species and changed fire regimes.

• It is the scale which lends itsel

CSIRO 2010

Northern Territory Climate Change Policy 2009 ((http://www.greeningnt.nt.gov.au/climate/policy.html))

• Ambitious targetsAmbitious targets– 60% emissions reduction by 205060% emissions reduction by 2050– NTG carbon neutral in its own operations by 2018NTG carbon neutral in its own operations by 2018– 20% energy from renewables by 202020% energy from renewables by 2020– Replace diesel in remote communities by 2020Replace diesel in remote communities by 2020

• Comprehensive strategyComprehensive strategy– 9 elements including towns, industry, workforce, waste, 9 elements including towns, industry, workforce, waste,

communities and living with changecommunities and living with change– Detailed adaptation action plans for each sector, Detailed adaptation action plans for each sector,

led by whole of government task forceled by whole of government task force

• Leadership, resources & community engagement criticalLeadership, resources & community engagement critical

Reflections on Darwin & the NT

• We are at the end of long, vulnerable food supply chainsWe are at the end of long, vulnerable food supply chains• Real energy, nutrient and chemical prices Real energy, nutrient and chemical prices

(& hence local food prices) will likely increase steeply(& hence local food prices) will likely increase steeply• We currently dump nutrient-rich waste in the harbourWe currently dump nutrient-rich waste in the harbour• There is plenty of scope to increase local food productionThere is plenty of scope to increase local food production

− at household, urban and peri-urban scalesat household, urban and peri-urban scales− integration with local markets minimises food milesintegration with local markets minimises food miles

• And to better utilise waste streams & waste waterAnd to better utilise waste streams & waste water

• Potential integration of municipal/industrial waste with Potential integration of municipal/industrial waste with purpose-grown (purpose-grown (not weedynot weedy) biomass energy crops) biomass energy crops

• Household energy rating systems need to be tuned for the tropics! Household energy rating systems need to be tuned for the tropics!

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• Climate, water, energy, food and health are interconnected

• The age of cheap, abundant fossil fuel energy is ending

• The carbon pricing era has begun

• Rural, urban and regional planning needs to integrate its consideration of climate, carbon, water, energy and food

• The Territory has both the imperative (risk exposure) and the opportunity (manageable scale, ability to get things done) to lead Australia (& the region) in managing these converging insecurities

• This will deliver high value jobs & position the NT economy well

LETS GO FOR IT

In Summary

For more informationFor more information

e.g. Paddock to PlatePolicy Propositions for Sustainable Food Systems

Managing Australian SoilsManaging Australian Landscapes in a Changing Climate

Powerful Choices: transition to a biofuel economy

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