Conversational Systems Thinking

The power of group engagement with the rigor of system dynamics…for

less!

Purpose

• To describe a set of skills and an approach that can improve the quality of thinking…about just about anything…without requiring computer simulation

Agenda

• Overview• Seven Skills• Value Add• Leverage Points• Q&A

Acknowledgements

• I have had the honor to work with several inspirational systems thinkers Barry Richmond

First articulated Seven Thinking Skills First coined term Conversational Systems Thinking

Dana Meadows Developer of Leverage Points concepts

Steve Peterson Continues to push these ideas forward Paper Barry Richmond, System Dynamics and Public Policy

is a great example

Continuum from Archetype/CLD ST to Computer-Facilitated

SD

• Easy to Learn • Nearly anyone can write it

• Some systemic insightsbut can be too generic

• Mostly right brain• Sexy

Archetype/CLD ST Computer-Facilitated SD

• Years to Learn• limited to few

• Most rigorous and uniquesystemic insights

• Heavy left brain• Geeky

• Possible to Learn• Somewhat limited

• More rigorous and more uniquesystemic insights

• Broad appeal - left/right brain

Barry Richmond’sValue per Effort graph

• A lot of clarity can be derived with little time and effort, simply by conversational application of (operational) systems thinking

Conversational use of skills

Simple stock/flow map

Simple model

Complex model

Foc

us o

f CS

T

Effort/TimeRequired

ValueDerived

Big honkin’ model!

Venn Diagram

• A majority of the population (e.g. in organization or policy discussion…dare I say in the population!) can learn and apply Conversational Systems Thinking

• They would become better participants (consumers and contributors) to strategy and policy processes

Apply ConversationalSystems Thinking Skills

95-100%

Apply ConversationalSystems Thinking Skills

95-100%

BuildSimple Maps

40-50%

BuildSimple Maps

40-50%

BuildSimpleModels15-20%

BuildSimpleModels15-20%

Build Complex Models2%

Build Complex Models2%

About the Current Age

"I wish it need not have happened in my time," said Frodo."So do I," said Gandalf, "and so do all who live to see such times. But that is not for them to decide. All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given us.”

-J.R.R. TolkienOne crucially important thing we can do with the time given us is to increase our systems thinking capacity and of those around us.

Seven Thinking Skills Overview

Seven Thinking Skills of a Systems Thinker*

Systems Thinking skill Contrasts with… Dynamic Thinking – Focusing on patterns of behavior (trends) over time

Static Thinking – Focusing on specific events

System-as-Cause Thinking – Choosing to focus on the system within the organization’s control as responsible for performance issues

System-as-Effect Thinking – Choosing to focus on forces outside the organization’s control as generating the performance issues (creating “victimitis”)

Forest Thinking – Taking the 30,000 foot view of the system

Tree-by-tree Thinking – Focusing on the details, often getting lost in spreadsheets!

Operational Thinking – Looking for causality (How is this behavior generated?)

Factors Thinking – Developing a list of factors associated/correlated with the behavior

Closed-loop (Feedback) Thinking – Understanding the feedback and ongoing process responsible for behavior

Straight-line Thinking – Believing causality is a one-way, linear relationship

Quantitative Thinking – Understanding how to represent non-physical, immeasurable variables in analysis

Qualitative Thinking – Including only those variables believed measurable

Scientific Thinking – Building the most useful, entertainable theory of causality

Proving Truth Thinking – Looking for “The Answer”

Systems Thinking skill Contrasts with… Dynamic Thinking – Focusing on patterns of behavior (trends) over time

Static Thinking – Focusing on specific events

System-as-Cause Thinking – Choosing to focus on the system within the organization’s control as responsible for performance issues

System-as-Effect Thinking – Choosing to focus on forces outside the organization’s control as generating the performance issues (creating “victimitis”)

Forest Thinking – Taking the 30,000 foot view of the system

Tree-by-tree Thinking – Focusing on the details, often getting lost in spreadsheets!

Operational Thinking – Looking for causality (How is this behavior generated?)

Factors Thinking – Developing a list of factors associated/correlated with the behavior

Closed-loop (Feedback) Thinking – Understanding the feedback and ongoing process responsible for behavior

Straight-line Thinking – Believing causality is a one-way, linear relationship

Quantitative Thinking – Understanding how to represent non-physical, immeasurable variables in analysis

Qualitative Thinking – Including only those variables believed measurable

Scientific Thinking – Building the most useful, entertainable theory of causality

Proving Truth Thinking – Looking for “The Answer”

*Barry Richmond

7 ST SkillsContrasting CST with Simulation SD

Skill ConversationalComputer Supported

Dynamic Agreeing on issue, over time, scale of time concerned

Ditto

30,000 Foot (Forest)

Expanding boundary of focus, determining appropriate sectors

Ditto

System as Cause

Focusing on how system generates its own performance, not relying on exogenous causes for behavior

Ditto

OperationalBuilding a mental model that represents causality, using stock/flow maps to represent, may or may not need generic templates to get at essence of activities

Use computer simulation to test plumbing, will use generic templates to specify flows

Closed-loop

Closing feedback loops, removing free lunches. Can do so with connector arrows. In CST will link feedback loops through stock/flow structure to see implications on accumulations. Cannot determine loop dominance.

Use computer simulation to test loop validity and determine dominance.

Quantitative

Include non-physical determinants of behavior. Ensures mental model doesn’t exclude what’s unmeasurable but important.

Need to specify range and build structure to numerate non-physical. Often requires lots of selling to stakeholders!

Scientific Use a build confidence in analysis (map if done) approach. Not proving truth.

Ditto, but building confidence in simulations and results.

Fra

min

gIs

sues

Rep

rese

ntin

gA

ssum

ptio

nsM

inds

et &

App

roac

h

The Skills Part 1Framing the Issue

Dynamic Thinking

• Move from event to over-time perspective

• Power of group agreement on “what’s happening”

• I usually get individuals to sketch out…then have small groups discuss, integrate and prioritize

0

Profit (in Millions of $)

20

-20 Years

“Here & Now” Lens

“Short Time Horizon” Lens

“Longer Time Horizon” Lens

“Much Longer Time Horizon” Lens

Dynamic ThinkingDon’t only look back!

• Very interesting discussions can occur when asking to project how long it will take to achieve some objective.

Revenue

Years0

10

20Let’s double revenue!How will that occur?

Different curves represent different mental models that can be brought to the light of day!

Dynamic Thinking Malnutrition (Peru)

• Here the behavior of interest is…

• Why have improvements in reducing malnutrition stopped!? Understanding why it worked for a while and why it’s stopped can lead to more systemic conversations

Chronic Malnutrition in Peru 1975-2004

2004

20001996

1975

1992

1984

20

25

30

35

40

45

197519761977197819791980198119821983198419851986198719881989199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004

% malnourished, height (under age 5)

Chronic Malnutrition in Peru 1975-2004

2004

20001996

1975

1992

1984

20

25

30

35

40

45

197519761977197819791980198119821983198419851986198719881989199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004

% malnourished, height (under age 5)

More than one of every four children under the age of five suffer from chronic malnutrition in Peru. After steady advances, progress in addressing the problem essentially came to a halt – despite

roughly $300 million a year devoted to resolving the problem.

Unitsof Stuff

producing stufffrom raw materials

ProductionInfrastructure

removingold

utilization ofcapacity

s

s

30,000 Foot (Forest) Thinking

• Boundary expansion• One way to avoid

unintended consequences or poor projections

• Example: Oil Production Top map projects oil

production solely on production infrastructure

Second includes finite resource, price and the impact on demand (consumption infrastructure)

Unitsof Stuff

selling to consumers

producing stufffrom raw materials

months of inventoryremaining

$ perUnit ofStuff

adjusting$ per unit

Consumption Infrastructure

adding

removing

desiredgrowth

desired unitsper consumer

capacity

ProductionInfrastructure

investingin new

removingold

revenue fromstuff

revenue percapacity unit

desiredinvestment

utilization ofcapacity

PotentialRaw

Material

~

productivity ofcapacity

ss

o

oo

s

s

o

s

s

s

s

s

s

s

s

s

s

Production InfrastructureSupply

Consumption InfrastructureDemand

Price

Production InfrastructureSupply

30,000 Foot (Forest) Thinking

Tips

• Resist the temptation to “dive into” everything you know about a part of the issue in any one sector until you’ve captured the 30,000 foot view

• Use Sector Frames to help categorize

• Expand boundary by questioning clouds in a stock/flow map

The Skills Part 2Representing the Mental

Model

Operational Thinking

• The stock/flow language is the operational language of Conversational Systems Thinking

• It becomes a great framework for… Representing the main chain (core infrastructure)

Determining the essence of how activities are generated (stock vs. flow)

Identifying levers through generic templates

Main Chains (or Core Infrastructures)Examples of stock/flow maps

HealthyPopulation

At RiskPop

ChronicPop

births

becomingat risk

devlopingchronic

conditions

dying

losing riskystatus

Population Health

InexperiencedStaff

ExperiencedStaffbecoming

experiencedhiring

inexperiencedattrition of

experienced

CandidatePool

Workforce Development

Treatment CapacityCapacity in

DevelopmentTreatmentCapacity

beginningdevelopment

comingon line

removingfrom use

PersonalHabits

losing goodhabits

building goodhabits through medical

& public awareness

Personal Health Habits

Cash inAccount

revenue expenses

Financials

Main Chains (or Core Infrastructures) An example from the CDC

CDC was mandated by Congress with two measurable goals re: diabetes policy…1. Rate of diagnosing diabetes2. Reducing Prevalence3. Reducing deaths (dying)

What do you think of this strategy? Sufficient?

UndiagnosedPrevalence

DiagnosedPrevalence

diagnosing

dying

PopulationwithoutDisease

developingbut undiagnosed

developingand diagnosed

1

2

Turns out these goals are incongruent!

Prevalence & deaths (measurable)

must increase ifdiagnosing increases!

3

Main Chains (or Core Infrastructures)Homework for Session 3: Map the expenditure

An Example from working with GA Legislators

Proposed/ Current

Expenditure

Impacts flow (a-

d)

Why? How long till impact seen? Why?

Potential Unintended Consequences

School fitness programs

a & b Develops healthy behaviors in students; prevents the onset of obesity

Most visible after 20-40 years. Takes till that long until students reach “complications” ages

Funding from other programs

…. …. …. … …

Healthy& Safe

Population

At RiskPopulation

Afflicted &Chronic

Populationbecomingat risk

returning tohealthy & safe

becomingafflicted

dying fromchronic

complications

a.

b.

c. d.Map current or desired initiatives onto main chain

Main Chains

Tips

• Although you can map non-physical, it’s likely best to make core infrastructure physical

• A structure mapping the building Support for a program at Boeing becomes a chain of Advocates and Resistants

• Non-physical variables can then drive these more physical flows

Aware of& May

Use DLAdvocates

for DL

Resistantto DL

decidingagainst

decidingfor

becomingaware losing

advocates

gaining advocatesfrom resistant

Activity (Flow) Generation

• Understanding whether a flow is generated primarily from a stock or flow can lead to insights in where focus has been and what might be done

• Have conversations with stakeholders regarding the essence of how something is generated

Activity (Flow) GenerationGeneric Templates

Templates• Stock-based

Resource Compounding Draining Gap-

adjustment

• Flow-based Co-flow

criticizingCriticismDelivered

losing

SelfEsteem

self esteem per criticism

Co-flow

InfectedPopulation

becominginfected

infectionrate

Compounding

Charge onCapacitor

discharging

dischargerate

Draining

Oil Wells

pumping

well productivity

Barrelsof Oil

Resource

Perceived

Quality

Current Quality

changing

adjustment fraction

or adjustment time

perception

gap

Gap-adjustment

Using generic templates helps identifies levers

Example: Auto manufacturer

Strategy to reduce auto-related fatalities

• Manufacturer classified initiatives as active vs. passive

• Turns out using generic templates made it easier to classify

CumulativeFatalities

annualfatalities

accidentsper year

fatalities peraccidentmiles driven

per year

accidentsper mile

Vehiclesmiles pervehicle

per year

Co-flows

External resource

Features by automakers to reduce fatalities can reduce:

• Accident probability

• Fatality probability

But can also reduce:

• Autos (UIO)• Miles driven (VMT)

Closed-Loop Thinking

• Showing feedback loops that drive changes in dynamics Reinforcing Counteracting

(Balancing)• Can do so just as

well in stock/flow maps…

• And you don’t lose the main chain nor levers identified

Units ofStuff

Price

producing stufffrom raw materials

selling toconsumers

AvailableRaw

Material

ProductionInfrastructure

and its Utilization

units produced perunit of production

infrastructure

Demand

add 10% more!

Demand Balancing Loop

Supply Balancing Loop

s

oLimit to Growth Balancing Loop

s s

s

o

s

Can do with/without generic templates

Healthy and Chronic Population discussion

CST Exercise with GA Legislators

• Current treatment strategies might create a vicious cycle (Reinforcing Loop)

More demand & spending for treatments on the Chronic Population means less spending on the At Risk Population means more Chronic Population needing treatments)

• What might be the most effective way to limit this loop’s impact?

Reinforcing Loop

Healthy& Safe

Population

At RiskPopulation

Afflicted &Chronic

Population

becomingat risk

returning tohealthy & safe

becomingafflicted

CumeSpending

spending onafflicted & chronic

$ per afflicted& chronic

dying fromchronic

complications

demand for spendingon afflicted & chronic

mortality %

The Skills Part 3Framing the Issue

Scientific Thinking Process

• In applying CST use same confidence building process you would with a model Building confidence not proving

truth

• Iterate through applying skills• Revisit reference behavior• When building maps start small -

core infrastructure• Best if core infrastructure is

physical• Add a piece of structure, discuss

implications, revise and add from there

Observe/IdentifyIssues

Build/ReviseCausal Theory

Develop/TestStrategies

Communicate &Disseminate Solutions

& Insights

Value Add in Practice

Pulls out concept of systemic orchestration

• Operational strategy maps identify where systemic orchestration will determine strategic effectiveness

• Knowing timing and magnitude is just as important as knowing levers!

CumulativeSales

SF InTraining

Info Systemin Development

Large AccountSales Force

Info System

hiring newsf

becomingfully

productive

beginning coming online

productivity

Large Account Sales

6 month delay

3 year delay

Identify Unintended Consequences Rigorous approach to improving mental models

Policy QuestionHow can we reduce the number of people dying with

AIDs?

If our primary strategy is to develop interventions that increase the lifespan of the Infected Population, what will happen to the rate of “dying” over time?

Annual deaths

Years

InfectedPopulationbecoming

infected dying

average timeinfected before

dying

becoming infected %

Expanding boundaries leads to…

InfectedPopulationbecoming

infected dying

average timeinfected before

dying

becoming infected %

RiskyBehavior

Populationbeginningrisky behavior

HealthyPopulation

births

beginning riskybehavior %

Able to Identify Leverage Points

• Conversational Systems Thinking – because it applies stocks and flows – allows better analysis using Donella Meadow’s “places to intervene in a system” framework

• Her list of leverage points (next page) works from constants (e.g. productivity terms) down to rules and mindsets that determine the system

• CST allows you to examine the gamut of her list

Identifying PoliciesPlaces to Intervene in a system*

12.Constants, parameters, numbers (such as subsidies, taxes, standards)

11.The sizes of buffers and other stabilizing stocks, relative to their flows

10.The structure of material stocks and flows (such as transport networks, population age structures)

9. The length of delays, relative to the rate of system change

8. The strength of negative feedback loops, relative to the impacts they are trying to correct against

7. The gain around driving positive feedback loops

6. The structure of information flows (who does and does not have access to what kinds of information)

5. The rules of the system (such as incentives, punishments, constraints)

4. The power to add, change, evolve, or self-organize system structure

3. The goals of the system2. The mindset or paradigm out of

which the system - its goals, structure, rules, delays, parameters - arises

1. The power to transcend paradigms*Donella Meadows, Sustainability Institute and author of The Global Citizenhttp://www.sustainer.org

In order of increasing effectiveness

By using CST, you can more easily explore implications of policies with regard to leverage

Summary

Dana Meadows said:

We have just enough time…

starting now!

A Brief Bibliography

Resource Author/Publisher NotesSeven Thinking Skills Barry Richmond, Pegasus

Communications (2000)Introduced concept of sevent thinking skills. Excellent resource guide.

Introduction to Systems Thinking

Barry Richmond, iseesystems (2002)

Extremely accessible work produced by one of the leading lights of the field.

Strategic Modelling and Business Dynamics

John Morecroft, Wiley Press (2007)

One of the most accessible modeling books. Perhaps too business-y for the layperson.

The Strategic Forum Chris Soderquist, Berrett-Koehler (2000)

Description of using modeling for strategic planning

The Systems Thinker Newsletter

Pegasus Communicationswww.pegasuscom.com

Newsletter format. Broad range of topics covered. Rigor of treatment varies.Pegasus website is a clearinghouse for a host of dynamic modeling/system dynamics/systems thinking resources.

Operational Strategy Mapping

Soderquist, C. and Shimada, M., Pegasus Communications

Feature article on using strategy mapping at Boeing

The Fifth Discipline Peter Senge, Doubleday (1994)

Qualitative treatment of broad array of dynamic modeling skills and topics. Popularized “systems thinking” approach. Many follow-on “field books” published over the years.

Industrial Dynamics Jay Forrester, Pegasus Communications, (1961)

Classic book on system dynamics, written by the founder of the field.