C o p e r n i c u s C l i m a t e C h a n g e S e r v i c e

Climate Change

Anca Brookshaw, ECMWF

Climate Change

Climate Change

C 3 S i n a n u t s h e l l

Eva

luat

ion

& Q

C fu

nctio

n O

utreach & D

issemination

from European commission e.g.,FP7 Space call, H2020

from EU Member States, ESA, EUMETSAT, EEA,

WMO..

Climate Data Store

Sectoral Information System

Stakeholders & users

Qua

lity

assu

ranc

e In

tegr

ity o

f Ser

vice

U

ser r

equi

rem

ents

International expert panel

Climate Change

C 3 S c o m p o n e n t s

4

Climate Data Store

Sectoral Information

System Evaluation

and Quality Control

Outreach and Dissemination

• ECVs past, present and future

• Observed, reanalysed and simulated

• Derived climate indicators

• Tools to support adaptation and mitigation at global and European level

• Monitors quality of C3S products and services

• Ensures C3S delivers state-of-the-art climate information to end-users

• Identifies gaps in service provision

• Bridges Copernicus with the research agenda in Europe (e.g. H2020, national research projects)

• Web content • Public outreach • Coordination with

national outreach • Liaison with public

authorities • Conferences, seminars • Training and

education

Climate Change

C l i m a t e D a t a S t o r e c o n t e n t

Scientific basis: • Essential Climate Variables as

defined by GCOS • GCOS Status Report and

Implementation Plan • IPCC, CMIP

Observations Global estimates

of ECVs from satellite and in-

situ observations

Reprocessed CDRs, reference

observations

Support for data rescue, climate data collections

Climate reanalysis

Global atmosphere, ocean, land

Regional reanalysis for

Europe

Coupled climate reanalysis for 100

years

Model output

Multi-model seasonal forecast products

Access to CMIP data and

products (global and regional)

Reference set of climate projections

for Europe

Climate Indicators

Action engaged

In preparation (PIN or ITT out)

Not started

Climate Change

C l i m a t e D a t a S t o r e c o n t e n t - r e a n a l y s i s

Global reanalysis: ERA5 is now in production (3 streams)

• 32km global resolution • Uncertainty estimates • Improved use of observations • Newly reprocessed satellite data • Hourly data from 1979-NRT • Access to all input observations (via

the Observation Feedback Archive)

Development of a Climate Monitoring Facility Regional reanalysis: • European domain (including Arctic?) • Higher spatial resolution • Workshop organised 2016 Q2 • Competitive call by 2016 Q4

EUMETSAT reprocessing

activity

Climate Change

C l i m a t e m o n i t o r i n g

16 warmest years on record: 1998 and 2001-2015

Production of ERA-interim has been accelerated to feed a monthly State of Climate

Average surface air temperature anomalies for the last 12 months (201511 to 201610)

Average surface air temperature October 2016

Climate Change

C 3 S s e a s o n a l f o r e c a s t s

Aim: to generate seasonal forecast products based on the best information available, to an operational schedule, and make them publicly available.

C3S seasonal service will be based on a multi-system framework.

• Five European forecast systems have been selected: – three for immediate use (2016; core providers): ECMWF, Met Office,

Météo France – two for later use, following further development (2017; additional

providers): Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD)

Interest in collaboration expressed by NCEP and JMA; terms and timings to be discussed.

• Evaluation and quality control (EQC) function

Climate Change

S e a s o n a l f o r e c a s t s - f i r s t r e l e a s e 1 2 / 2 0 1 6

http://climate.copernicus.eu/seasonal-forecasts

An example of C3S operational preview: Multi-model seasonal forecasts Meteo-France UK MetOffice ECMWF (CMCC & DWD)

Climate Change

S e a s o n a l f o r e c a s t s - g r a p h i c a l p r o d u c t s

Variables: • sea-level pressure • geopotential height • precipitation • air temperature

Type of plots: • maps:

• global • pre-defined regions

• time series

Publication schedule: • monthly updates • published on each 15th

Climate Change S e a s o n a l f o r e c a s t s - e x a m p l e

Climate Change

S e a s o n a l f o r e c a s t – d a t a p r o d u c t s

• Original data: 1 deg gridded data sets for many variables (atmosphere, ocean; high temporal resolution: 6h - 24h)

• Processed data, starting with all data represented in the graphs and requests from SIS projects

• Forecasts from individual systems and multi-system combinations

• Information on (average) skill will accompany forecast products wherever possible.

Preliminary date service expected in Q2 2017.

Climate Change

S e a s o n a l f o r e c a s t s - v a r i a b l e s

From the ocean model: every 24h: Sea-level (without tides) Depth of 28 deg isotherm Depth of 26 deg isotherm Depth of 20 deg isotherm

Mixed layer depth Surface salinity Zonal surface current Meridional surface current

From the atmosphere model: every 6 hours: 2 metre temperature (or nearest equivalent) 2 metre dewpoint temperature 10 metre u wind 10 metre v wind mean sea level pressure total cloud cover skin temperature every 24 hours: sea-ice concentration sea surface temperature volumetric soil moisture level 1 volumetric soil moisture level 2 volumetric soil moisture level 3 volumetric soil moisture level 4 (or total soil moisture) surface temperature snow depth (water equivalent) snow density Tmax and Tmin at 2 metres Max 10m wind gust

every 24 hours, accumulated: large scale precipitation convective precipitation (or total precipitation) snow fall surface sensible heat flux surface latent heat flux surface solar radiation downwards surface thermal radiation downwards surface solar radiation surface thermal radiation top solar radiation top thermal radiation east-west surface stress north-south surface stress evaporation every 12 hours: geopotential temperature specific humidity vorticity/divergence or u/v wind components at 925, 850, 700, 500, 400, 300, 200, 100, 50, 30, 10 hPa

Climate Change

T e c h n i c a l d e s c r i p t i o n

Proof of concept phase (core providers only) – spatial resolution of data: 1 deg or original grid – temporal resolution of data: daily or sub-daily – forecasts and reforecasts (1993-2015) – data delivery by 12Z on 10th day of month (product release on 15th

day of month)

Pre-operational (all providers) – spatial resolution of data: 1 deg or original grid – temporal resolution of data: daily or sub-daily – ocean data: on a grid to be agreed – forecasts and reforecasts (1993-2015) – data delivery by 12Z on 6th day of month (product release on 10th

day of month)

Climate Change

S e a s o n a l f o r e c a s t s - e v a l u a t i o n

Evaluation and quality control (EQC) function for seasonal forecast products contracted with consortium led by Barcelona Supercomputing Centre (BCS). Includes:

assessment of user needs

inventory of climate data

scientific assessment and gap analysis of information available to users

usability of service and products (from technical perspective)

recommendations for bridging identified gaps

prototype software for on-demand user evaluation of seasonal

information.

Climate Change

C l i m a t e p r o j e c t i o n s

Global projection-related service • Provision of support to one Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) node in Europe –

solution for access to and manipulation of global climate projections from the CMIP archive, consistent with the requirements of climate services.

• Multi-model product generation – metrics for fidelity of models in simulating historical climate, to be translated into quality for specific

applications – interactive tools for generic products (e.g. maps of intra-ensemble variability for different models and

scenarios), and tailored products for several economic sectors

• Roadmap towards a reference set of climate projections for Europe: studies on how well climate projections address sectoral needs, to guide requirements for the operational phase of C3S. Areas of interest: the benefit of ensemble size versus resolution for global models, and the benefit of initialised decadal predictions, in relation to the specific needs of different economic sectors.

Regional climate projection service The goal

– to facilitate access to and manipulation (via the CDS) of output of regional climate projections over Europe and boundary conditions from GCM simulations needed for future regional projections.

– to define, agree and complete a matrix of global/regional model combinations and scenarios, which allows robust assessment of the uncertainties arising from these factors in a multi-model set of regional projections.

The Invitation to Tender has recently been published

Evaluation and quality control component for climate projection-based services – similar in concept to the equivalent activity for the seasonal forecast service; started in September.

Climate Change

S e c t o r a l I n f o r m a t i o n S y s t e m

18

Proof of concept development of sectoral

applications

Copernicus Climate Change Service

Climate Change

S e c t o r a l I n f o r m a t i o n S y s t e m

19

Seven proof of concept SIS contracts have been awarded: • SIS water management:

• SWICCA (Service for Water Indicators in Climate Change adaptation) – lead SMHI (Sweden)

• EDgE (End-to-End demonstrator for improved decision making in the water sector in Europe) – Lead CEH (UK)

• SIS energy:

• CLIM4ENERGY (Climate for Energy) – Lead CEA (France)

• ECEM (European Climatic Energy Mixes) – Lead UEA (UK)

• SIS others:

• AgriCLASS (Agriculture Climate Advisory Services) – Lead Telespazio – Vega (UK)

• WISC (Windstorm Information Service) – Lead CGI (UK)

• URBAN-SIS (touching health, infrastructure,..) – Lead SMHI (Sweden)

• No noticeable delays in the deliverables (…so far).

• Quality of the output generally high.

Climate Change

CLIMATE DATA STORE

C l i m a t e D a t a S t o r e / T o o l b o x - C o n c e p t

Climate Change

C l i m a t e D a t a S t o r e / T o o l b o x - C o n c e p t

Cloud Hosting

The Toolbox relies on the CDS Infrastructure

CLO

UD

HOST

ING

Climate Change • Climate Data Store / Toolbox

• Concept

C l i m a t e D a t a S t o r e / T o o l b o x - C o n c e p t

Climate Change

C l i m a t e D a t a S t o r e / T o o l b o x - C h a l l e n g e s

Technical challenges: • Diversity of users • Diversity of data sets • Very large data volumes • Data residing at different locations • Interoperability, efficiency • User-defined workflows • Variety of presentation methods • Need for interactivity • Access via API • User management • Performance monitoring

maps

text

controls

graphs

Climate Change

C l i m a t e D a t a S t o r e / T o o l b o x - W e b P o r t a l

Content Management System (articles, news, events, …)

Catalogue of products ISO19115, for interoperability with INSPIRE, GEOSS, WMO Information System, …

Toolbox

Catalogue of analytics tools that can be invoked on the data and products of the CDS

Describes algorithms and methods, input and output data, possible parameterization

Users’ settings Profiles, preferences, licenses, …

Users’ requests

Current and past users requests: data retrievals and computations Request management: monitor, cancel, download results

Climate Change

C l i m a t e D a t a S t o r e / T o o l b o x

Broker Manages all users requests (data retrievals and computations) Knows where is what Dispatches requests to the right location

Adaptors

Map broker requests (data retrievals and computations) to data supplier specific protocols

• Quality of Services Needed to guarantee a good service when CDS will be used by many

simultaneous users Uses queues to throttle processing of requests so that available resources

(CPUs, disks, network) are not exhausted Implements limits for a fair use of the system (per user, per dataset, per type

of computation, etc) and a for a fine grained control of resource usage Implements priorities to schedule important requests (e.g. VIP users,

interactive works) before others (e.g. batch access, large computations)

Climate Change

C l i m a t e D a t a S t o r e T o o l b o x

The Toolbox will be composed of: Tools that perform basic operations on data, such as the computation of

statistics, sub-setting, averaging, value at points, etc. Workflows that combine tools by chaining them so that the output of some

tools is used as input to others Applications that make use of workflows and selected data and products of

the CDS, to build interactive web-pages allowing end-users to interact with the CDS

A Toolbox Compute layer: When possible tools will be executed next to the data (at the data suppliers) Otherwise, computations will be performed in a dedicated compute layer Use of cloud technologies will be considered Compute layer will also hold intermediate results

Climate Change

C l i m a t e D a t a S t o r e / T o o l b o x

Service Oriented Architecture and Orchestration

Tools are available either at the data providers or in the compute layer Tools will be invoked remotely by the broker as services (SOA), using adaptors when

necessary Tools are combined into workflows An orchestrator will manage the execution of workflows

Parallelisation of execution whenever possible Minimisation of data transfers

Climate Change

C 3 S - D e v e l o p m e n t t i m e l i n e

Stage 0/I Stage II Stage III

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Mid-term review

Signature of Delegation Agreement

Today: first C3S General Assembly C3S first operations

Climate Change

C l i m a t e D a t a S t o r e / T o o l b o x - T i m e l i n e

KO Sprint 0 Sprints 1-6 Sprints 7-13 6

Sep

16

04 O

ct 1

6

SC1 End

30

Sep

17

5 Se

p 16

Initial Product Backlog

Development Environment

Roadmap Release 0.1

Roadmap Release 1.0

Q1 Review

v0.1 Review

v1.0 Review

4 weeks 6 x 4 weeks 6 x 4 weeks

Review Meetings (at ECMWF)

04 M

ar 1

7

We are here

Climate Change

C l i m a t e D a t a S t o r e / T o o l b o x

Development and environment tools Programming languages: Python and Javascript Virtualisation technology: Docker / OpenStack (From infrastructure) Scientific Python packages: NumPy, SciPy, Pandas Climate community software tools: Metview, Magics, CDO, NCL,

NCO,GDAL, .. Web Framework: React, D3 Software quality: pycodestyle, pyflakes, mypy