COPERT TrainingEmissions from the road transport sector

EMISIA SA presentation

Technical Assistance for Developed Analytical Basis for

Formulating Strategies and Actions towards

Low Carbon Development

October 2019, Ankara

Why transport emissions are so important

• Transport represents almost a quarter of Europe's greenhouse gas emissions and is the main cause of air pollution in cities

• The transport sector has not seen the same gradual decline in emissions as other sectors

• The only sector with emissions remaining higher than in 1990!

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Evolution of GHG emissions by sector in the EU

GHG emissions from transport

• Transport accounts for 1/3 of total energy consumption and 1/4 of total GHG emissions

• Road transport alone contributes to 1/5 of total EU GHG emissions

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Year: 2016 draft

Contribution of transport to total emissions

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Year: 2016 draft

Air pollutant emissions from transport

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Emissions are decreasing, however…

Air Quality exceedances due to traffic

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Average CO2 emissions and targets for cars and vans

• Car and van manufacturers have already met their specific CO2 emissions targets for 2015/2017

• More effort is needed to meet the emissions targets for 2020/2021

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Real-world CO2 emissions are different

• There is a gap between real-world and official CO2 emissions / fuel consumption

• The gap is increasing over the years!

Company cars: 45%

All data sources: 42%

Private cars: 39%

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Real-world diesel PC NOx emissions

• Significant exceedances up to Euro 5

• Expected reductions at Euro 6 step

• Still limited evidence –models under revision

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Air policy in Europe

• The EU has introduced and implemented various legal instruments with the objective of achieving levels of air quality that do not adversely impact human health and the environment

• The overarching policy framework is the EU Thematic Strategy on Air Pollution (TSAP), adopted by the Commission in 2005

• National Emission Ceilings Directive

• Air Quality Directive on ambient air quality and cleaner air for Europe regulates concentrations of SO2, NO2, PM10, PM2.5, CO, O3, benzene and lead.

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Transport targets up to 2050 (1/2)

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Target Date Source

Transport GHG (including international aviation, excluding international maritime shipping)- 20 % ↓ (versus 2008)- 60 % ↓ (versus 1990)

20302050

Transport White Paper, 2050 Roadmap

10 % share of renewable energy in the transport sector final energy consumption for each Member State

2020 Renewable Energy Directive

Fuel suppliers to reduce lifecycle GHG of road transport fuel 6–10 % ↓ (versus 2010 fossil fuels)

2020 Fuel Quality Directive

Target average type-approval emissions for new passenger cars- 130 g CO2/km- 95 g CO2/km

20152021

EC Regulation 443/2009

Target average type-approval emissions for new light vans- 175 g CO2/km- 147 g CO2/km

20172020

EC Regulation 510/2011

Transport targets up to 2050 (2/2)

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Target Date Source

Road freight over 300 km shift to rail/ waterborne transport- 30 % shift- 50 % shift

20302050

Transport White Paper

Use of conventionally fuelled cars in urban transport- 50 % ↓

- 100 % ↓

20302050

Transport White Paper

CO2 free city logistics in major urban centres 2030 Transport White Paper

The majority of medium-distance passenger transport should go by rail

2050 Transport White Paper

EU CO2 emissions of maritime bunker fuels 40 % ↓ (versus 2005)

2050 Transport White Paper

40 % share of low carbon sustainable fuels in aviation 2050 Transport White Paper

Emisia presentation

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• Spin-off of AUTh/LAT since March 2008

• Head office in Thessaloniki; Office in Brussels

• Areas of expertise:

Who we are, what we do

Testing

• LD & HD vehicles

• PEMS

• Engine and vehicle dyno (LAT)

Assessments

• Data collection, processing and analysis

• Vehicle & Emissions Modelling & Projecting

• Policy Impact Assessment

• Vehicle Technology Evaluation

Utilities

• SIBYL

• COPERT

• COPERT Street Level

•Wiseride

• Intelair

• Triten

Interactions between the three areas

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Testing Assessments Utilities

TESTING

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• Under RDE-compliant on-road trips, diesel NOx emissions from diesel vehicles showed average levels varying from 5 to 16 times the Euro 6 limit.

• NOx emissions of diesel vehicles driven in more dynamic driving conditions increased further to reach a range from 26 to 40 times the Euro 6 limit.

Real-world emissions testing with PEMS

16 x Emission limit

40 x Emission limit

5 x Emission limit

26 x Emission limit

• HORIBA OBS ONE• LDV, HDV• THC, CO, CO2, NO or NOx, PN• Accreditation in 2019

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PEMS data infrastructure

• Data organization & retrieval

• PEMS IT System design & development

• System update & maintenance

PEMS data measurements – vehicle distribution

PEMS System web application environment

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PEMS data analysis

• Data quality (QA/QC)

• Process review & optimization

• Data processing, analysis and assessment

Altitude estimation where no spot height measurements are available

ASSESSMENTS

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Areas of interest

• Data collection, processing and analysis– PEMS Data QA/QC, Eurostat Road-Air-IWW-Rail, COPERT Uncertainty

• Vehicle Emissions Modelling & Projecting– COPERT, TRACCS

• Policy Impact Assessment– Fuel Quality Directive support

• Vehicle Technology Evaluation– EURO 7

– CO2 from vehicle energy systems

• Air Quality (through our partner AERIS Europe)– Urban

– Assessments

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CO2 emissions from the use of vehicle components

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• Calculate CO2 emissions linked to the use of selected products of a Tier 1 OEM supplier over product lifetime

• All important powertrains considered

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• Projections of real-world (total) CO2 from road transport taking into account advanced biofuel production pathways and deployment of ICT/ITS

• Projections based on baseline activity evolution to 2030, agreed in high-level EU policy related studies

Evolution of CO2 emissions from road traffic

☟

5% BEV

☟

40% PHEV

UTILITIES

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• Estimates emissions from on-road vehicle fleets• Used by 22 out of 28 MS for official submission of road emission inventories• Developed for the European Environment Agency• Free for use

• Calculates traffic emissions at street level using COPERT functions• Can be combined with traffic analysis tools• Visualization of results on GIS maps

• Provides real-time traffic and environmental information for the city of Thessaloniki• Enables smart navigation based on user selected criteria• Available on the web and as an Android application

• Includes historic and projected stock and activity data• Delivers alternative scenarios for energy and emissions• Includes advanced technologies and mobility patterns• Commercially available

• Efficient and flexible tool developed for operational air quality forecast and scenario assessment

• Uses minimal computational resources and widely available input data• Validated on small-scale urban situation

• PEMS data handling & IT infrastructure• Data analysis• Emissions modelling

Utilities

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• COPERT is the flagship of EMISIA’s tools

• Supported by the European Environment Agency

• Estimates all types of pollutants from all road vehicle types

• Hundreds of scientific and policy citations

Academic use

29%

Calculation of

emission factors -

Emissions

22%

Evaluation - Research

20%

Input to Air Quality

2%

Local inventory

4%

National inventory

5%

Other

18%

What can SIBYL do for you?

• Provide you with state-of-the-art baseline projections, established at an EU level

• Assist you in developing alternative scenarios

• Produce ready-to-use tables and graphs for your report

What can SIBYL offer?

• Coverage of all EU MS individually and EU28 as a whole

• Detailed information on vehicle stocks and activities

• Fully interactive graphs that greatly accelerate your work

• Flexible scenario creation and presentation

• Access to updates and revisions of the baseline and the model capabilities

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Technical Assistance for Developed Analytical Basis for

Formulating Strategies and Actions towards

Low Carbon Development

http://www.lowcarbonturkey.org/

Thank you for your attention!