Implications of biomass strategy for communitiesand policies \
^••ÍT.rífoNÍCE: C E N T R E
Malin Falkenmark, Jan Lundqvist and Cari Widstrand
This article summarizes present knowledge of the vulnerability to water scarcity ofsemi-arid Third World countries. Their predicament is explained in terms of fourparallel modes of water scarcity, superimposed on one another, two of natural originand two human-induced. The authors conclude that long-term planning within theenvironmental constraints imposed by water scarcity is crucial, and calls for a newawareness among high-level experts and policy makers. Careful land and water useplanning based on the water-balance method is a key component, but depends onexpanding traditional water resources assessment methods developed in the temperatezone to incorporate root zone water storage, differences in groundwater recharge, andlandscape zonation in water-producing v water-consuming or evaporating areas.
A growing uneasiness is noticeable within the inter-national community about Africa's developmentproblems (Meerman and Cochrane, 1984). Its popu-lation continues to grow rapidly and is predicted toquadruple before levelling off in the next century. Landfertility continues to decline, yields of the dominantcrops remain low, and no high-yield packages are yetin view to accelerate yields for the main dryland crops,sorghum and millet. Governments are overburdenedwith tremendous financial debts and tend to turn theirbacks on poverty-prone rural areas. There is, in otherwords, a general inability to deal with the situation.
The possibility of improvement is probably stronglyaffected by the fact that different professions tend tohave very different perceptions of the core of theproblem. One dimension which has seldom beendiscussed in the past is the role of climate (Kamarck,1976). Top-level experts and policy makers havegenerally been trained in the temperate zone and arenot used to thinking of water as a constraint uponsocietal activities. Not even the World Commission onEnvironment and Development touched upon the
The authors are with the Department of Water andEnvironmental Studies, Linkõping University, S-58183Linkõping, Sweden.
problems emerging when a population grows whilewater remains scarce (WCED, 1987).
Ecologists tend to blame the problems on 'droughtsand desertification', rather than examing the manage-ment of drylands where intermittent droughts are abasic feature. Hydrologists are interested in clarifyingthe role of water scarcity in creating basic vulnera-bility. A starting point is the distinction between fourdifferent modes of scarcity (Falkenmark, Lundqvistand Widstrand, 1989), explaining the predicament ofsemi-arid Africa with the explanatory model presentedschematically in Table 1. In addition to the three modesof water scarcity shown in the table, there is a fourthtype, manifested as water stress or chronic waterscarcity and developing in areas where the populationis high in relation to the number of flow units of water(water scarcity D). An interesting observation is that acorrelation seems to exist in Ethiopia between famine-prone regional units (awrajas), earlier identified byMesfin (1984), and areas with water scarcity of type Dor type C. This confirms that difficulty of access towater by plants and by humans are both fundamentaldeterminants of famine-proneness.
The general inability to deal with the situation andthe widespread ignorance of the role played by waterscarcity in generating basic vulnerability in a region
Coping with water scarcity: Malin Falkenmark. Jan Lundqvist and Carl Widstrand
suggest an ever-increasing risk of continued faminecatastrophes. This alerted the Swedish Red Cross toconvene an international seminar in February 1989 inVadstena, Sweden, hosted by the Department forWater and Environmental Studies at LinkõpingUniversity. The aim of the seminar was to clarify theparticular vulnerability related to water scarcity insemi-arid developing countries. Special attention waspaid to Africa and South Asia. This article summarizesour present understanding of the problems, integratingthe social development potential at the village levelwith the opportunities provided by the physicalenvironment, and incorporates the main contributionsto and the basic outcome of the Vadstena seminar.
Root causes of food insecurityFamine and reduction in yields
From time to time dreadful famines haunt the peoplesof Third World countries. A few decades ago famineswere mainly of concern to people in Asian countries,but now it is primarily the African continent which isaffected (Kates et al, 1988). Apart from extreme foodshortages associated with famine for a certain period,it is essential to pay attention to the steady decrease inper capita food production in Africa. Whereas percapita food production in Asia and Latin America hasshown a steady upward trend since the beginning of the1960s, in Africa south of the Sahara it has beendeclining (Harrison, 1987). Contrary to widespreadbelief, it is not only food production for subsistencewhich has shown a falling trend in Africa; per capitaproduction of most cash crops has also shown a steepreduction (Harrison, 1987). Even costly irrigationschemes have shown poor performance (Moris, 1987).
Information about famines is, however, invariablyscanty. Sensational treatment in the media has led toneglect of the root causes and processes leading to thisextreme form of hunger.
Environmental degradation and reduced rainfallefficiency
The phenomenon of desertification, repeatedly referredto in discussions of the decreasing fertility of the semi-arid tropics, has tended to be widely misinterpreteddue to an undefined use of the concept: it has covered
everything from the spreading of sand dunes alongdesert borders to eroded slopes, crust-covered land,poorly managed irrigated land and salinization ofdrylands due to altered land cover (changing fromwoodland to pasture). 'Paradoxically, the term deserti-fication itself has, in a way, become desertified'(Nelson, 1988). The term desertification shouldpreferably be limited to dryland degradation. Therehas been a confusion between cause and symptom.Reduced land productivity is a symptom, manifestedthrough processes at work during drought years. Thecause is overexploitation of the ecosystem generated byhuman behaviour including increased populationpressure on vulnerable drylands. The inevitable resultis ecological collapse, famine and outmigration.
For farmers facing water scarcity problems thedecreases in yield and general difficulty of obtainingsafe yields are often interpreted as effects of decreasingprecipitation. However, Olsen (1987), in a study ofRayalaseema in India, showed that the climate changeso often referred to when explaining the advancingwater shortage is a myth. The real reason for waterscarcity in that area was rapidly increasing ground-water usage, drying out local wells.
In a recent study of West Africa Gornitz (1987)shows that precipitation there has not shown anyapparent secular decrease linked to vegetationclearing, as earlier suggested. The change in albedowas assessed to be only 0.5% over the past 100 years.He concluded that devegetation may have led toreductions in soil moisture, placing plants under stressand producing similar effects to climatic desiccation.In other words he identified the problem as a human-induced water scarcity (type C in our classification).Jackson (1988) also refers to the explanation that therains have become less efficacious as a result ofintensified land use with a reduction in soil organicmatter; ie the fraction of precipitation which isretained as soil moisture is being reduced. Incombination with heavy usage of available water,scarcity becomes acute.
In fact the semi-arid tropics where fertility degra-dation has developed into a major problem contain agreat versatility of hydroclimatic conditions and mustbe analysed with this in mind.
The hypothesis that crop yields fall as a result of a
Table 1. Three main water scarcity modes.
Vulnerability
Aridity, producing a limitedgrowing season
Water scarcity A
Complication
Degraded soils disturbing therecharge of the root zone
Water scarcity C
Triggering Result
Intermittent droughts Disturbed water supply of plants
Water scarcity B
30 WATER RESOURCES DEVELOPMENT Volume 6 Number 1 March 1990
Coping with water scarcity: Malin Falkenmark, Jan Lundqvist and Carl Widstrand
decline in the efficacity of rainfall is also supported bya study of the development of surface crusts in thesemi-arid zone of West Africa - evidently a maindeterminant in reducing soil moisture. Valentin andCasenave (1988) describe a multitude of structural anddepositional crusts developing both on semi-aridcroplands after tillage and on range lands. Theseverely crusted and eroded surface had increased 20-fold during a 25-year period (1960-84) in which thecultivated land had doubled and the fallow had halved.They ascribe this transformation of the landscape topopulation increase in combination with a sequence ofdrought years which forced farmers to expand theirfields to compensate for declining crop yields.
Decreasing nutrient status of the soil may alsocontribute to decreasing dryland productivity. Bremanand Uithol (1984), in a study of primary production inthe Sahelian zone of Mali, arrived at the conclusionthat soil poverty is at least as big a problem as watershortage. They found that the Sahara is not advancingto the south; the cause of decreased productivity isoverexploitation related to increased land use intensityand increasing grazing pressure. Unfortunately, thesolution is not simply to introduce nitrogen-fixingspecies because of climatic problems. Reduced fertilityin the area can be remedied only by external inputs,according to this study.
Debt burden
Deteriorating performance in terms of agriculturaloutput per capita and outbreaks of famine areevidently end results of a number of interrelatedfactors. Aside from disruptions in the ecologicalsystem, official policy is a major factor in shaping theagricultural sector. National policies are in turnaffected by international relations. The tremendousfinancial debt of Third World countries and structuraladjustments decreed by the IMF are hitting poorcountries very hard. The situation is particularly severein Africa. 'Africa's debt-servicing ratios are by farthe highest in the world. Debt-servicing flows are nowreported to run at $16 bn per year... its average debtservice ratio has more than doubled from 15% in 1980to 33% in 1987. In some countries the debt service ratioeven exceeds 100%' (Hydén, 1988, pp3-4).
In its latest annual report Unicef bluntly blamespolicies advocated by the International Bank forReconstruction and Development and the IMF andpressed upon Third World countries as a direct causeof human suffering, particularly among children. 'Thesituation has reached a point where both Africangovernments and international donors must rise abovetheir day-to-day concerns and think not only in termsof single policy interventions but also of restructuringthe whole policy and governance arena' (Hydén, 1988,p25).
WATER RESOURCES DEVELOPMENT Volume 6 Number 1 March 1990
Government aloofness from drought-prone regions
Often, prevailing policies have meant governmentsstanding aloof from the development problems of thetraditional agricultural sector. At the Vadstenaseminar Michael Stâhl pointed out that it should not betaken for granted that national governments will givepriority to semi-arid areas in their investment allo-cations. In a situation characterized by adversemacroeconomic trends, it is likely that the priorityallocation of capital resources, infrastructure and staffwill be to areas considered to have the potential forquick economic returns, ie well-watered highlands,river valleys, etc. The semi-arid areas are ¡eft tointernational charity.
Stâhl mentioned Ethiopia as an example. Althoughimpressive tree planting and terracing campaigns areunderway in the drought-prone degraded highlands,this is almost totally financed by food-for-work andother types of international aid. Government resourcesfor agricultural development are channelled to anumber of districts which have been identified as'surplus producing'. These are found on highlandplains with deep soils and adequate rainfall. Thestrategy is to maximize production of cereal cropsutilizing conventional seed-fertilizer packages. Exten-sion staff and other inputs by the Ministry ofAgriculture are concentrated there. As a consequenceof this policy the number of extension staff in thedrought-prone Wollo region has been reduced by morethan 50% over the last two years.
The inability to deal with the situation is particularlyworrisome in the face of rapid population growth. Theprospects for Africa are alarming. Its current popula-tion of 600 million (in 1987) is projected to reach 880million by the end of the century, and 1.6 billion byAD 2025 (Wahren, 1989). Apart from mountingpressure on the resource base, the high fertility ratescreate a situation where the ratio of young people toadults imposes a heavy burden upon adult males andfemales. The burden on women is particularlynoticeable, and Wahren found that there is a greatunmet need on the part of women for child-spacingmethods.
Environmental opportunities
The current trends in African development present agloomy and difficult picture. But trends are notdestiny. As pointed out in the so-called 'Kericho'document (African Academy of Sciences, 1987) thetroubled times may extend to the year 2000, when arenewal could commence. By AD 2057 per capitaincome, life expectancy and other socioeconomiccharacteristics may have improved considerably: 'itwould be as densely populated, as wealthy, healthy and
31
Coping with water scarcity: Malin Falkenmark; Jan Lundqvisi and Carl Widstrand
educated as Greece was in the early 1980s' (p5). Whatis said to be needed in the short run to achieve thismassive transformation is a change in perception tobring about and welcome 'surprises'. Such 'surprises'apparently cannot be generated through importedgoods and models. They must rather be build upon andamalgamated with the indigenous cultural and socialfabric in combination with the opportunities providedby the environment. This document is inspiring in itsoptimistic outlook. It is, however, remarkable forfailing to incorporate a natural resource perspective.
The Kericho document's optimism is rooted in atrust in sociocultural dynamics, rapid advances inbiotechnology and benefits derived from climaticchanges. For the realization of such a vision it is,however, fundamental to pay attention to whatMageed described at the seminar as the 'environmentalfabric', its relation to water scarcity and the processesby which it is naturally regulated. Soil characteristics,vegetation sequences, animal species and humansocioeconomic patterns are all related to variationsand degrees of water scarcity. Mageed also stressedthat the prolonged drought hitting sub-Saharan Africain the 1970s created panic among populations as wellas governments, and that the stage had been set for thecollapse of the ecosystem by continued soil degra-dation from overgrazing, tree felling and inadequateland use practices. The dilemma of this poverty-proneregion is magnified by the combination of acuteeconomic and financial problems with complex factorssuch as water scarcity, an increasing food gap andgeneral poverty.
Mageed emphasized how important it is that reliefand emergency efforts generated by this panic and thecollapse of the ecosystem be integrated into a long-term rehabilitation and restoration programme for theenvironmental system. Otherwise there is an evidentrisk that the supply of drought-resistant seeds, forexample, will encourage the spread of crop productioninto more marginal lands, and that emergency watersupply projects or food aid will generate dependentattitudes among local populations. He proposed thatwater scarcity be recognized as central to the crisis.Land and water use maps, based on the opportunitiesafforded by the environment, are needed and theyshould be reinforced by legal land and water useinstruments, providing effective non-structural meansto mitigate the water-scarcity-related vulnerability ofthe region.
Maximized biomass production
The most obvious way of improving the quality of lifein drought-prone areas which are far away from riversbringing exogenous water for irrigation is to make useto the largest possible degree of local rainfall (UD,
1988). The strategy should be the 'best possible use oflocal rain', involving biomass production for multiplepurposes: crop production to provide self-reliance infood, and trees and forestry to provide fodder,fuelwood and timber for sale.
At the seminar Datye argued that considerablerethinking is actually taking place in India in thisdirection. In the past, sustainabilily of livelihood inhydrologically vulnerable drought-prone regions wasthought to be mainly dependent on exogenous waterentering from distant catchment areas, and this oftenled to favouring cash income generated throughmarket-oriented crop production. The new focus onproduction based on local rainfall has raised thequestion of the sustainability of a system where treecrops are integrated with seasonal crops for food andcash.
In areas where water is the scarcer resource,maximum biomass production per unit of water is amore evident goal than maximum production per unitof land, capital or other factor of production. Afundamental challenge in such areas is the simple factthat biomass production is equivalent to the returningof a large amount of water to the atmosphere. Studiesof natural ecosystems indicate these overall 'losses' toamount to 1000 mVton of biomass (Falkenmark,1986).
Water balance components
In hydrologically marginal regions where a major partof the rain input to the area is returned to theatmosphere in a complex evapotranspiration process,only very limited amounts remain for the recharge ofterrestrial water systems in rivers and aquifers. This isequivalent to competition for water between the returnflow to the atmosphere, on the one hand, and humanwater demands on the other.
Figure 1 a illustrates a simple water flow analysis of aland unit in a rainfed upstream landscape where theonly source of water is local rainfall. The tremendousdifference between the huge amount of water returningto the atmosphere and the minor amount remaining torecharge local water systems, typical in the semi-aridtropics, is clearly illustrated.
The return flow to the atmosphere has twocomponents (Falkenmark, 1986): a productive parttied to the plant production process, and an unpro-ductive part tied to evaporation from moist surfaces inthe landscape. In order to minimize the latter,vegetation has to be as dense as possible under thecircumstances. In addition, however, the foliage has tobe as small as possible_to minimize interception lossesof rain adhering to leaf surfaces during rainfall andrapidly evaporating again after the rain. Moreover,there is an interception loss from the litter layer
32 WATER RESOURCES DEVELOPMENT Volume 6 Number 1 March 1990
Coping with water scarcity: Malin Falkenmark, Jan Lundqvist and Cart Widstrand
Dry savanna
1000
mm/yr
130
870
Desert savanna
300
20
282
Precipitation Legend
Runoff
Evopotranspiration
Sohelkjn rongekinds, Mali 1976-1981
100%
2 5 %
60% 15%
Figure 1. Water flow analysis of some typical semi-arid environments.
The upper figure (a) shows the relationship between return flow to the atmosphere andrecharge of terrestrial water systems. Numbers indicate water flow in mm. Source:Lvovich (1979).The lower figure (b) shows the relative proportions (%) between the productive part(striped) and non-productive part of the return flow. Source: Breman and Uithol(1984).
accumulating on the ground which has to be balancedagainst the need for mulching in order to avoidunnecessary erosion.
In order to achieve the best results, infiltrationshould be facilitated so that rainwater may rapidlyenter the soil and recharge root zone water storage.Other measures to maximize productivity wouldinclude maximizing the amount of water that can bestored in the root zone. The water-holding capacitycould be increased by adding organic material fromcrop residues to compensate for the rapid breakdownof such material characteristic of a tropical climate.
A typical water balance for the Sahelian rangelands(100-600 mm annual rainfall) is illustrated in Figure
lb, based on data from Breman and Uithol (1984).Under present conditions only 10-20% of the precipi-tation was productive in terms of plant production,whereas another 60% returned to the atmosphere asunproductive evaporation from the soil surface. Theirstudy indicates that by improving access to nutrientsthe productive 'losses' could be increased to 50% of therainfall, ie water used by vegetation could be morethan doubled.
Practical solutions
Water scarcity modes
It was evident from the Vadstena seminar that there is
WATER RESOURCES DEVELOPMENT Volume 6 Number 1 March 1990 33
Coping with water scarcity: Malin Falkenmark, Jan Lundqvist and Carl Widstrand
ample information available on the various technicalarrangements to mitigate different problems related towater scarcity, land degradation and risks of cropfailure. Indian scientists have been particularly activein this area and energetic action is being taken in manyof the Indian states to reduce vulnerability, based onan awareness of the constraints produced by limitedwater availability and related land managementproblems. Sivanappan gave a comprehensive overviewof various techniques developed and increasinglybrought into use in different restoration and landdevelopment projects in India in the last few decades.Table 2 presents an overview of the principalmitigation methods, related to the respective modes ofwater scarcity. Table 3 relates these different tech-niques to their basic scope as seen from a hydrologicalperspective and to the main water scarcity modeaddressed, distinguishing between soil and waterconservation techniques on the one hand andagronomic techniques on the other.
Various means for water harvesting have beenidentified as a way to mitigate poor conditions forplant production generated by low and erratic rainfallwith particular reference to sub-Saharan Africa (Reij,Mulder and Begemann, 19Í58). Knowledge of indi-genous systems in the region is scanty, however, andthe acceptance of donor-supported techniques is low.Not surprisingly, the low or slow rates of adoptionresult from omitting to consider social factors and
the way communities are organized. Techniques aimedat harvesting water in large watersheds make itdifficult for individual farmers to identify their roleand position, and the implications with regard totenurial structure are not properly attended to.
Allocation of different water componentsBecause of the large interannual fluctuations inrainfall, the reliability of the rainfall and thefluctuations in water availability in terrestrial systemshave to be taken into account. In ongoing experimentsin Maharashtra in India aimed at developing realisticprinciples for achieving sustainable and stable incomewith the help of assured water and minimal use ofexternal and cash inputs, Datye has developed amethodology based on compartmentalization of thelocal water into an assured and a variable component.
The assured component would have to be estimatedfrom a baseline rainfall that could be available with ahigh degree of dependability, say 80%. Part of thiswater could be provided by water harvesting ofrainwater over nearby non-cropped areas, storing itand making it accessible for protective irrigation of theland devoted to food security. Over and above theassured supply, a variable component would beavailable in many years with better-than-averagerainfall. This water could be used for tree establishmentand yield augmentation in tree plots or food plots, butalso for commercial crops in good years. Obviously the
Table 2. Main measures for mitigating water scarcity.
Waterscarcitymode General «cope
A Get best out ofshort growingseason
B Preparedness fordrought years
Renovation ofdegraded land,restoration of ground-^water availability
D Optimum allocationof available water
crop selectionincreased water use efficiencysupply extra water(irrigation)
early warningcrop storage from good yearsdrought-resilient cropsincreased water use efficiencysupply extra wateroveryear water storage
- improve infiltration ;
- land use policies-groundwater policies* improve water-holding
capacity
storage of wet season flowwater use prioritiesadministrative coordinationsequential reuse-renovateurban sewage for irrigation
Measures
-soil conserv —-afforestation
agroforestrymanure
' clay
facilitate infiltrationpercol pondsagrie technfarm pondsweed control
'facilitate infiltration-percol ponds- agrie techn• farm ponds-weed control
'bunding-terracing
Principal measure
•water conservation
•tree crops
•use water efficiencyeven during goodyears•avoid wastage
assessment of assured water and requirements forbasic needs has to be site-specific.
Datye suggested that the assured water be treated asa scarce resource, ie distributed equitably to attain asustainable livelihood and food security for the localfarming communities in vulnerable areas. The variablesurplus, on the other hand, could be distributed as afree market good or a private priority right to beutilized for water-intensive commercial crops.
An agro-silvicultural strategy for livelihood security
Datye also reported on the approach and practicalresults of the ongoing experiments. The basic idea is tocombine watershed management and development forthe best possible use of local rainfall with sustainablebiomass production providing stable agriculturalyields and general livelihood security. Basically afamily holding should be divided into two parts: asmall part providing food security for the family, andthe rest assigned to multiuse tree crop systems. Therole of trees is thus multiple: to provide economic gainsand security, and to contribute to the improvement ofproductivity in the area (see also Chambers and Leach,1989). The silvicultural part should also providebiomass material to be used as organic input on theagricultural land to improve the water-holding capacityof the soil.
The immediate results have not necessarily beenvery dramatic. After the first two years of the five-yearexperiment period the results indicate that from a
rainfall of 500 mm, of which 300 mm could be utilizedfor productive purposes, an overall production of 20tons/ha of dry matter could be achieved in the forestrypart and 3 tons/ha in the crop production part. Rootzone water security was achieved by two or threeprotective waterings to fill interspell water shortages,in all 150 mm. Organic input was achieved from onecartload of dung per 100 m2 of cropped area. Datyeconcluded that, with 5 tons/ha as a realistic yield goalfor the coming years, 0.3 ha would be enough toprovide one family with the 1.2-1.5 tons of grainsneeded annually for their food security.
Securing long-term productivity
In order to conserve the long-term fertility of the soil,nutrients have to be continuously added to compensatefor the nutrient removed with the harvested biomass.But organic matter also has to be added intermittentlyto secure an adequate water-holding capacity over theyears. At the seminar Lional Weerakoon reported oncurrent experiments in the dry zone of Sri Lanka whichaddress sustainable agriculture by developing astrategy aiming at concurrent production and conser-vation. A key component is the avoidance ofunnecessary depletion of fertile soils by erosion.Therefore, no-tillage systems should be preferred, andthe tillage benefits lost should be compensated for bycrop residue mulches. The system has a number ofcomponents aimed at meeting a set of major criteria,notably soil fertility maintenance, biomass production,
WATER RESOURCES DEVELOPMENT Volume 6 Number 1 March 1990 35
Coping with water scarcity: Malin Falkenmark, Jan Lundqvist and Carl Widstrand
control of weeds and other pests, meeting firewoodand fodder needs, avoiding high cost inputs, achievingfarmer acceptance and compatibility with farmingsystems in the area (Weerakoon and Schall, 1987).
Implementation in the landscapeIn Weerakoon's experiments landscape zonation playsan important role. The sustainable land use must besuited to different categories of land in what he calls a'catenary sequence'. Components are a multi-storeyhome garden with nitrogen-fixing trees, erosioncontrol barriers of hedgerows along the contour linesin the landscape, contour bunds on slopes, grassplanted in buffer strips to minimize erosion andprovide fodder for cattle, intercropping legumes withcereal crops instead of monocropping, in the lowlandsline or double hedgerow planting or rice bunds forfertility maintenance, and plant mixtures for greenmanure purposes with fast biomass production(Weerakoon and Schall, 1987).
Constructed soil conservation measures such asconventional earth bunding systems are obviouslyexpensive for the small farmer, but there are cheap do-it-yourself alternatives. Grimshaw (1987) describes ina World Bank pamphlet the use of vegetable systemsfor soil and moisture conservation. Suitable plantssuch as Vétiver grass are planted to form hedges alongthe contour lines. The result is both a yield increase andincreased groundwater recharge as an effect of holdingup the surface runoff.
In India, Sivanappan has already urged similarlandscape arrangements in a number of papers(Sivanappan and Panchanatan, 1985; Sivanappan,1989). Figure 2 provides a sketch of how to coordinateuphill, slope and downhill land use and the techno-logical measures needed to support such land use (cfTable 3). The basic idea is to restore the forests in theupper catchments for resource purposes, for protec-tion against soil erosion and to facilitate infiltration ofrainwater, and therefore also to recharge groundwateraquifers, transporting surplus water to lower inhabitedareas. The basic measures in uphill areas and hillslopesare contour trenching and contour walls or bunds toprevent erosion and to obstruct runoff; check dams tostop the silt in the streams; and afforestation to restorethe forests. In the foothills in situ moisture conservationmay be implemented by contour cultivation, furrows,broad-based ridges and furrows, and tie ridges, andlocal runoff can be stored in farm ponds to supplywater for protective irrigation during critical vegetationperiods. In the lowlands runoff arriving from upperparts of the catchments may be stored in tanks anddesilted to improve their storage capacity. Water-saving irrigation techniques such as drip irrigationwould increase productivity per unit of water.
Implementing concurrent production andconservation
Building on local knowledge and abilities
Not only are the poor people in rural communities thevictims of rural stagnation and environmental disrup-tion, but they also form the backbone of theircountries' economies. A paternalistic attitude towardsthe rural poor is, however, noticeable. In the'conventional wisdom' approach to the developmentof Third World countries, their needs and lacks havebeen highlighted rather than their potential. At theVadstena seminar Peter Warshall described thesituation with the help of a metaphor. There are twodifferent ways to describe a cup which is half filled: wecan look at it as half empty or as half full. The ruralpoor are conventionally looked upon from a 'halfempty' perspective. The metaphor can be furthertapped for symbolic significance. It is the bottom of thecup, not the top, which first and last has a content, andit is through the top that the craving for the contents atthe bottom of the cup is expressed.
At the seminar there was unanimous support for theidea that a better future must to a much largerdegree than is currently the case build upon theresources and abilities of local communities. Theknowledge of the environment that can be found inlocal communities must be recognized, mobilized,supported, upgraded and put to use. Datyeemphasizedthat identification and implementation of the biomassstrategy discussed above was largely done with andthrough people in the communities concerned.
In a number of articles and books Robert Chambershas elaborated on the need for and benefits desirablefrom accomodating the experience and abilities of themillions of resource-poor farmers in efforts to improvelivelihood security in rural areas in Third Worldcountries (Chambers and Ghidyal, 1985; Chambersand Jiggens, 1986). The challenge is basically toidentify practices which fit the total environment,social and ecological, rather than trying to makefarmers adopt 'miracles'. 'Scientists project "first"values - industrial, capital intensive, dependent oncash inputs- into "last" environments- impoverished,labour intensive, dependent on local inputs - wherethey often make no sense or are otherwise un-adoptable' by resource-poor farmers (Chambersand Jiggens, 1986, p20).
This has nothing to do with a romantic image of therole that people in rural communities can play. 'Asentimental belief in "trad values" and a gut feelingthat the "people know best" without knowing why andunder what circumstances, will be unhelpful anddamaging to the prospects of rural development in thelong run' (Richards, 1980, quoted in Niamir, 1989, p 2).
36 WATER RESOURCES DEVELOPMENT Volume 6 Number 1 March 1990
Coping with water scarcity: Malin Falkenmark, Jan Lundqvist and Carl Widstmnd
Top
Mountain
Eco restoration
Slope
Assetbuilding Foothills-
Forest boundary
Dry landroinfed
(degraded)
Interfaceforestry
Forest dept-
Cereals andcommercial
crops
tank and wellirrigation
Delta flotlond
Poddy
irrigated bycanals
Sea
Privóte
f 3
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Legend
1. In situ conservationContour cultivationBasin/furrow farmingTie ridgingBroad bed furrows
2. Contour bunds
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Check dams and gully pluggingForm ponds
Percolation pondsIrrigation tonk
Sand storoge dams. Subsurface dams
Wells*• Watershed boundary
Figure 2. Landscape zonation of soil and water conservation measures.
The upper Figure shows vertical, the lower figure horizontal arrangements.Source: After Sivanappan (1989).
WATER RESOURCES DEVELOPMENT Volume 6 Number 1 March 1990
Coping with water scarcity: Malin Falkenmark, Jan Lundqvist and Carl Widstrand
Adaptability a key component
Historically people in Africa and in Asia have provedto be able to adapt well to an adverse environment withlarge variations in climate. A diversified croppingpattern and an ability to adjust the commencement ofthe growing season to rainfall pattern have beenimportant principles in making use of the potential ofsemi-arid areas. This adaptability reflects considerabledynamics and resilience in traditional societies whichare often missed in current interpretations of thecontext in which rural development occurs. Accordingto popular belief, perceptions and knowledge prevailingin traditional local communities are static and'fossilized'; but there are noteworthy refutations of thismyth. Niamir (1989) gives ample evidence of the greatspectrum of 'indigenous technical knowledge ofnatural resource management'. He stresses its func-tional and utilitarian values and notes that 'althoughlacking a regional/national outlook, it makes up bybeing rich on local details and historical trends'.However, its functional relevance and attachment tolocal conditions means that it is easily eroded if notused. The extension service and perhaps also formaleducation are obviously faced with a big challenge tomaintain and upgrade traditional technical knowledge.
The professional knowledge informing many de-velopment efforts is accumulated and tested accordingto criteria quite different from the knowledge of localcommunities. In contrast to 'laboratory-tested'attempts to boost development, local communitieshave acquired a truly holistic insight into thébehaviour and potential of the integrated human-environmental system through a 'time-and-field-testedapproach' (Madduma Bandara, 1985). It is throughcombining knowledge and preferences from the localcommunities with formal scientific knowledge thatefficient and sustainable development may provepossible (Niamir, 1989).
Project design in development assistance certainlyrequires changes in communication with peopleresiding in local communities. At the seminar JõranFries expressed the change of approach as follows.Some time ago development assistance was typicallyprescribed; it was the approach of a veterinarian whodid not ask the 'patient' nor did he expect the 'patient'to have any ideas about how to treat the problem. Thencame the approach of the house doctor who examinesand talks to his 'patient', but hardly discusses hisproposals with him. What is aimed at now is theapproach of a waiter in a restaurant. After apresentation of the menu, the waiter and the clientwould discuss the options, and the good waiter wouldleave the decisions to his client.
The idea that people in local communities shouldthemselves be the basis for development has achieved
wide acceptance. However, in spite of all the talk aboutcommunity participation it seems that developmentefforts are rather based in communities than uponcommunity preferences and capabilities, that is theyare not of the community but placed in it by someexternal agency. Such a situation leads to local lack ofinterest, non-cooperation and dependency on govern-ment or outside agencies for the simplest projects. Thisis probably the best way to create a society of 'aidjunkies'.
The question of replicability
An efficient strategy ¡slacking. In the literature it is easyto find examples of successful resource managementpractices which have increased production, boostedincome and contributed to a halt in outmigration. Towhat extent they are successful, for whom and howlasting the successes will be, can no doubt be debated.But perhaps the most important question is to whatextent the promising examples can be replicated on alarger scale. In view of the rapidly degradingenvironment, a growing population and escalatingpressure on the resource base, there is a very great needto spread successful management practices fromisolated examples so that we will not end up saying that'Individual battles have been won, but we are losingthe war' (Shaik et al, 1988, pp42-43).
In a detailed search and analysis of successfulnatural resources management projects in the Sahel,Shaik et al collated observations from 70 successfulinitiatives in four countries (pp 42-43). They concludedthat 'initiatives are not successful on their own terms,but show considerable promise of being replicable inother contexts' (p22). An efficient strategy forspreading successful practices is obviously lacking,however. The spreading of techniques is often a futileexercise, particularly when they are costly or compli-cated. Nevertheless, sound principles of resourcemanagement with respect to socioeconomic andenvironmental conditions that can be replicated areurgently needed.
Strengthen intercommunity contacts. Conventionaldevelopment assistance typically disregards intervillagenetworks of communication. A vital and functionalway to stimulate the spread of information aboutsuccessful methods to meet droughts, to economize onhuman effort and to identify acceptable ways ofincreasing food production and other outputs is sadlymissing. In principle and in practice, informationand good examples in bilateral aid projects and innational development programmes are primarilyspread in a hierarchical manner. Target groups ortarget areas are delineated in order to facilitate and to
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speed up the channelling of resources to the mostneedy segments of the population or the most urgentcases. Such a principle also serves accountingpurposes.
But quite often the target groups are missed andvarious 'spillover effects' are noticeable. A certaintechnology which has been designed for a specificobjective and given to a community may be used forsome quite different reason than originally intended. Astove programme launched with the intention ofsaving forests in Mali was adopted by the womenbecause it helped them to save time (Shaikh etal, 1988,pp 43-44). A household water supply scheme inMalawi had a noticeble positive effect on householdsthat did not belong to the target group; meanwhilenot all of the intended beneficiaries were reached(Lindskog and Lundqvist, 1989).
Without denying the need to support site-specificprojects, it is nevertheless of vital importance tostrengthen intercommunity contacts, to increasecontacts between the actual and potential 'doers' ofdevelopment. The dynamics within communities andespecially intercommunity contacts are often neglectedin research. By focusing on individual interviews thedynamics of groups are hard to grasp and evaluate. Aresearch methodology which incorporates interactionswithin groups looks very promising, however(Chambers and Jiggens, 1986). Organized contacts ormeetings between farmers from various villages to dis-cuss common problems and alternative approacheswould similarly hold considerable promise as a meansof estimating the potentials and limitations of variousresource management strategies, including their repli-cability.
Adopting the principles ofNGOs. About three decadesof development efforts have left a legacy of distrust andmisconceptions among farmers and other groups inThird World countries, whereas their supposed lack ofresponsiveness has nourished reciprocal cynicalattitudes on the part of development agents andnational governments. Given the psychological andinstitutional drawbacks of formal organizations inthis connection, it is obvious that non-governmentalorganizations (NGOs) may play a significant role:'agencies and governments, to avoid past errors, areeither going to have to work more through NGOs andsmall local organizations, or work more like them - ormaybe do both' (Timberlake, 1985, p217).
The role of NGOs in mobilizing, supporting andspreading viable resource management practices isincreasingly being recognized. At the seminar CamillaToulmin provided information about the range oforganizations engaged in efforts to improve thesituation in the drylands of the world. She emphasized
the importance of having a clearing house forstimulating contacts between the various organizationsand individual researchers engaged in dryland issues.Similarly, stimulating the spread of information to andfrom development practitioners working at local levelis crucial. Among the objectives of the InternationalInstitute for Environment and Development in thisregard is to bridge the communication barrier betweenEnglish- and French-speaking Africa (see IIED, 1988).
National policy for sound developmentShort-term v long-term challenges
It has to be realized that the problems of poverty-prone, semi-arid regions suffering from land degra-dation and the threat of famine look quite differentwhen seen in a short-term as opposed to a long-termperspective.
In the short term the main challenge is ruraldevelopment and finding a way out of the presentvicious circle and the threatening ecological collapse ofentire regions. This includes finding ways to adapt tothe effects of hydroclimatic (endemic) water scarcity(modes A and B), and to mitigate and remedy theeffects related to water scarcity C. It has been shownearlier in this overview that there are ways out of thepresent dilemma. The main actors are local farmers.What is demanded from national government ismainly interest in supporting such rural development,even of the poverty-prone and most backward regionsof the country. What is needed at the policy-makinglevel is the incentives necessary to make the effortsworthwhile as seen from the perspective of theindividual farmer.
In the long term the problem looks entirely different(Falkenmark, 1988). The challenge is then to acceleratebiomass production even further so as to meet thedemands of a rapidly growing population. If 3 tons/haare achievable in the short-term development of low-input crop production, as indicated by Datye'sexperiments, it would be necessary to double theseyields in a time perspective of only around two decadesin order to feed twice as many people. This mightinvolve difficulties due to a reduced per capita amountof water available for protective irrigation. Whetherthe root zone water security essential for securing suchyield levels is achieved by facilitating increased infil-tration of local rainfall which would otherwise formrunoff in local streams, or by regular irrigation withstream water, the effect will be a decreased amount ofwater available in streams or aquifers for otherpurposes (Figure 3). Improved root zone water securitywill therefore have to compete with other humanneeds for water (municipal water, rural water supply,local industry, irrigated cash crop production).
WATER RESOURCES DEVELOPMENT Volume 6 Number 1 March 1990 39
Coping with water scarcity: Malin Falkenmark, Jan Lundqvist and Carl Widstrand
Surfacerunoff
Groundwoter
Irrigation
Figure 3. Principal relations between freshwater supply and human water uses at the country or catchment scale.
Source: Falkenmark (1989).
Experience from other regions indicates that this mightinvolve big problems when the number of people perflow unit of water available from the water cycleincreases (water scarcity D).
Population policies and water futuresSuccessful population policies are necessary to avoidwater starvation, which will inevitably mean migrationout of the area. As has been shown by Falkenmark,Lundqvist and Widstrand (1989), population growthwill soon be forcing many African countries into asituation where a water amount of no more than say 5H (H being the amount needed simply for householdneeds, assumed to be 1001/person/day) would beavailable to support all water needs. For comparison,this amount is what Sweden is using for municipalwater supply only. The amount is also dramaticallyless than typical water demands in semi-arid irrigatedcountries. 5 H should be compared to what is usedtoday in irrigated developing countries (20-100 H) andwhat is used in most irrigated industrialized countries(75-200 H). However, the most water-conserving ofthese countries need no more than 12 H.
It is easy to understand from this discussion that awater scarcity of type D constitutes an extremelysevere constraint, which must be avoided by all means.The earlier the population can be stabilized, the betterquality of life will it be possible to achieve in water-
scarce rural areas and the more water will there be tosupport crop production and socioeconomic develop-ment. Rapid population growth in regions where wateravailability is finite but also scarce is equivalent tofutures forgone in terms of life quality. The less waterthere is per capita, the more famine-prone willconditions be when there is insufficient extra water tomitigate droughts and crop failures.
Long-term planning within environmental constraintsIt is evident that water scarcity will call for dramaticchanges in the approach to water. The relevantquestion is not the traditional one, inherited fromconsultants with temperate zone training andexperience: how much water do we need and where dowe get it? but rather: how much water is there and howshould we best benefit from it? (Falkenmark, Lundqvistand Widstrand, 1989). In other words, the challenge isto promote a strategy which aims at propermanagement of water demand rather than supply-oriented water resources management.
There is consequently an urgent need for a newawareness among politicians and high-level decisionmakers that problems that seem to be related to landmay in fact be caused by water penury. What has to beaimed for is best use criteria, basically irt line with theideas brought forward by the Brundtland Commission(WCED, 1987), ie to delineate broad land categories
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Coping with water scarcity: Malin Falkenmark, Jan Lundqvist and Carl Widstrand
and identify land according to best use criteria, basedon inventories of land capabilities and descriptions of acountry's fundamental natural resources.
At the same time it is vital that the new approachesneeded to develop sound methods for land husbandryand nature management pay due attention to the roleof water scarcity in the various life-supporting systems.This importance of water scarcity in fact escaped mostobservers even in the recent past, including both theBrundtland Commission and the recent internationalcongress on Nature Management and SustainableDevelopment (cf Ganning and Kessler, 1989). Thatcongress in fact concentrated on natural parks andprotected land areas in their discussion of the semi-aridtropical grasslands!
What is most urgently called for is the developmentof new methods of assessment of the carrying capacityand land use potential of semi-arid lands as a basis forsound forms of land husbandry.
Water-balance-based planning
At the Vadstena seminar the need to further developtraditional methods of water resources assessment wasstressed by Abdulay Diawara from Mali. Only whensuch an assessment has been made does there exist abasis for long-term planning of land use with dueregard to water limitations.
It is, however, necessary to go beyond temperatezone practices, which are mainly applicable toconditions of humid climate, concentrating on water inthe horizontal branch of the water cycle (rivers andgroundwater). Arid areas pose completely differentwater resource assessment problems. For one thing it isnecessary to include water in the vertical branch of thewater cycle, ie in particular soil moisture, the criticalresource that defines biomass production potential.What is needed is methods for the assessment of therecharge and water-holding capacity of the root zone,but also the recharge of groundwater aquifers in anarid climate. Furthermore, it has to be recalled thatgroundwater recharge takes place in different waysunder humid and arid conditions (Falkenmark andChapman, 1989). A humid climate allows regionalgroundwater recharge, whereas in arid regions ground-water may only be recharged in mountain areas andrecharge is otherwise limited to river bottoms duringflash floods and inundated banks along floodedstretches of major rivers.
It is also necessary to introduce a distinctionbetween water-producing areas in the landscape, whereterrestrial water systems are being recharged fromlocal rainfall, and water-consuming or evaporatingareas where emerging groundwater seepage and riverflow evaporate, leaving salt crusts behind andreducing the flow along the river. Margat (1982)
suggests we distinguish between river basins whendiscussing water-producing parts of the landscape, and'anti-basins' when discussing evaporating areas.Examples of the latter are the Jonglei region along theWhite Nile, and all the numerous sebkhas and chottsaround the arid regions.
Obviously, because of the marginal conditions andthe scarcity of water, both agriculture and forestryin water-producing areas should be carefully basedon water-balance planning on a catchment basis.It was reported at the seminar that in India bothfederal and state governments have now agreed inprinciple to this concept.
Conclusions
The current situation in semi-arid regions gives agloomy impression of a series of parallel problems(land degradation, rapid population growth, tremen-dous debt burdens, official detachment from poverty-prone areas, etc), which is a strong reason for veryserious concern (see Figure 4a). The gravity of thesituation is reinforced by misconceptions about theproper and effective ways to deal with the situation. Acharacteristic of conventional approaches to theproblem is a focus on lacks and needs rather than thepotential that exists to improve the situation. Theposibility of tackling the situation is also hampered bya dominant technical bias when dealing with the mostscarce resource of semi-arid regions, ie water. Theconventional approach has typically been to ask howmuch water we need and where we can get it, ratherthan how much water there is and what can best beproduced from that available amount of water.
The impression from the Vadstena seminar is thatknowledge of how to cope with water scarcity andmitigate fertility degradation is most advanced in SouthAsia, although efforts are underway in many partsof Africa as well. One main problem seems to be thereplicability in other environments of successfulresource management practices. It is of paramountimportance that development should start fromavailable resources and that land use should make thebest possible use of local rain. This would meanmaximizing the productive part of the return flow tothe atmosphere and minimizing unproductive losses.Such efforts to maximize biomass production per unitof water will also have implications in terms of soilconservation.
Typical additional components of a biomass strategyare diversification, allocation of assured water to foodcrops to achieve food security, intercropping of treeswith seasonal crops, etc. The biomass strategy bynecessity leads to diversified production which it ispossible to implement at the level of the village
WATER RESOURCES DEVELOPMENT Volume 6 Number 1 March 1990 41
Cqping with water scarcity: Malin Falkenmark, Jan Lundqvist and Carl Widstrand
Populationgrowth
Environmental
opportunitésLand fertility
Fertilitydegradation
National policy
Debt burden
Detachment
Lack of incentives
Decreasingper capita
yieldsFamine
Ecologicalcollapse Out migration
Population Biomoss needs
Environmentalopportunities
Water availability
Soils
Localknowledge
Adaptedtechnologies
Biomassproductionstrategy
Implementationreplicability
Food security
Employment
Income
National policy
Fertility restoration
Child spacing
Water-balance basedplanning
Incentives
Figure 4. Systems view of factors influencing rural food security.
The upper figure shows the present predicament, the lower figure conclusions from the Vadstena seminar.
community without expensive inputs from the outsideand manageable within the community context. Thispresumes active participation by local communities(see Figure 4b).
There are a multitude of isolated success stories allaround the semi-arid tropics. A fundamental issue tobe addressed by careful interdisciplinary research is thecriteria for replicability. This is a major challenge fordonor support and includes supporting networks ofcommunity contacts rather than individual projects.
The long-term prognosis for many semi-aridcountries with rapid population growth remainsgloomy unless governments can respond to thedemand for access to methods of child spacing. Thisdemand comes from women and is manifested in amassive number of abortions, estimated to be in theorder of 50 million in Africa alone. In short, the optionis either access to sizeable amounts of water per capitato support the socioeconomic development which islargely dependent on water, or access to extremelylimited amounts per capita, given the projectedpopulation growth before stabilization. The result will
be continued poverty, environmental stress andprobably outmigration from the most severely hitareas.
References
African Academy of Sciences (1987). 'Beyond hunger.An African vision of the 21st century', executive summaryof a workshop held at the Tea Hotel, Kericho, Kenya, 1-5June 1987 (mimeo).
Breman, H., and P. W. J. Uithol (1984). The PrimaryProduction in the Sahel(PPS) Project-A Birds-Eye View,Centre for Agrobiological Research (CABO), Wageningen,the Netherlands.
Chambers, R., and B. P. Ghidyal (1985). 'Agriculturalresearch for resource-poor farmers: the farmer-first-and-last model', Agricultural Administration, Vol 20,pp 1-30.
Chambers, R., and J. Jiggens (1986). Agricultural Researchfor Resource Poor Farmers: A Parsimonious Paradigm,Discussion Paper 220, IDS, Sussex, UK.
Chambers, R., and M. Leach (1989). 'Trees as savings andsecurity for the rural poor', World Development, Vol 17,No 3, pp 329-342.
Falkenmark, M. (1986). 'Fresh water-time for a modified
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