CoppellIndependentSchool District

Fall 2013Demographic

Study

Learn from Yesterday…Understand Today…Plan for the Future

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Economic Conditions

• Texas has had a job growth of 31.5 percent since 1995. Almost triple the nationwide growth of 12 percent. (City Journal – Winter 2013)

• DFW, Houston and Austin Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSA) created more than 230 thousand jobs in the last 12 months. (Metrostudy)

• The state's unemployment rate has been at or below the national rate for 81 consecutive months. (http://www.thetexaseconomy.org/economic-outlook/ )

• DFW is the 4th largest MSA in the country behind only NYC, LA and Chicago (City Journal – Winter 2013)

• Unemployment rates - Texas Labor Market Information (August 2013)- U.S. 7.6%- Texas 6.5%- DFW MSA 6.2%- Dallas County 6.4%- Coppell 5.4%

• Apartment vacancy rate is below 6% which has led to a record high average monthly rent of $861, a 3.4% increase over last year.

• DFW builders put up 5,861 new homes in the last quarter, a 27 percent increaseyear over year. (Dallas Business Journal)

Dallas/Fort Worth Job MarketAnnual Job Growth – By Sector as of August 2013

Source: Texas Workforce Commission 3

DFW Housing MarketStarts and Closings

21,013

18,855

-

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

3Q03 3Q04 3Q05 3Q06 3Q07 3Q08 3Q09 3Q10 3Q11 3Q12 3Q13

Ann

ual

Star

ts&

Clos

ing

s

Annual Starts

Annual Closings

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DFW Housing MarketMultiple Listing Service – YTD SFD Activity & Inventory

Source: Texas A&M Real Estate Center for NTREIS

Sept-13 %ChangeYTD Sales 69,256 20%Average Price 226,901 9%Median Price 174,500 10%Listings 23,422 -14%DOM 52 -25%Monthly Supply 3.2 -28%

5

6

Negative

0 - 100

100 - 250

250 - 750

750 - 1500

> 1500

Region 10 and 11 Growth 2007/08 – 2012/13

Regional Enrollment Trends

Region 11 Region 10Rank District Name

2007/08 Enrollment

2012/13 Enrollment

2007/08 ‐2012/13 Growth

1 NORTHWEST ISD 11,898 17,813 5,9152 DENTON ISD 20,892 25,782 4,8903 FORT WORTH ISD 78,857 83,491 4,6344 KELLER ISD 29,458 33,365 3,9075 EAGLE MT‐SAGINAW ISD 14,165 17,731 3,5666 MANSFIELD ISD 29,696 32,883 3,1877 LEWISVILLE ISD 49,636 52,522 2,8868 ARLINGTON ISD 62,863 65,005 2,1429 BIRDVILLE ISD 22,063 24,189 2,12610 BURLESON ISD 9,047 10,581 1,53411 HURST‐EULESS‐BEDFORD ISD 20,392 21,819 1,42712 LITTLE ELM ISD 5,409 6,399 99013 WHITE SETTLEMENT ISD 5,716 6,540 82414 EVERMAN ISD 4,746 5,401 65515 LAKE WORTH ISD 2,853 3,256 40316 CASTLEBERRY ISD 3,422 3,814 39217 KRUM ISD 1,506 1,895 38918 AUBREY ISD 1,634 2,006 37219 WEATHERFORD ISD 7,264 7,635 37120 ALEDO ISD 4,444 4,729 285

Rank District Name2007/08 

Enrollment2012/13 

Enrollment2007/08 ‐

2012/13 Growth1 FRISCO ISD 27,418 42,703 15,2852 RICHARDSON ISD 34,180 38,046 3,8663 PROSPER ISD 2,675 5,502 2,8274 ALLEN ISD 17,102 19,891 2,7895 WYLIE ISD 10,743 13,425 2,6826 MESQUITE ISD 36,640 39,128 2,4887 IRVING ISD 32,746 35,028 2,2828 MCKINNEY ISD 22,426 24,444 2,0189 GRAND PRAIRIE ISD 25,317 26,928 1,61110 FORNEY ISD 7,015 8,571 1,55611 PLANO ISD 53,683 55,188 1,50512 ROCKWALL ISD 13,064 14,483 1,41913 LOVEJOY ISD 2,501 3,650 1,14914 DALLAS ISD 157,804 158,915 1,11115 WAXAHACHIE ISD 6,561 7,652 1,09116 COPPELL ISD 9,948 10,997 1,04917 GARLAND ISD 57,169 58,056 88718 DUNCANVILLE ISD 12,467 13,271 80419 PRINCETON ISD 2,674 3,435 76120 ROYSE CITY ISD 4,144 4,905 761

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Regional Enrollment Trends2011/12-2012/13

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DFW New Home Ranking Report ISD Ranked by Annual Closings – 2Q13

Rank District Name Annual Starts Annual Closings VDL Future1 Frisco ISD 2,767 2,240 4,287 10,2682 Northwest ISD 1,193 1,133 1,619 22,6413 Denton ISD 1,172 995 2,538 14,4484 Keller ISD 869 890 1,375 3,3645 Lewisville ISD 900 797 1,499 2,0106 Prosper ISD 868 761 1,682 15,4197 Dallas ISD 880 706 2,175 7,3408 Eagle Mtn. ‐ Saginaw ISD 726 651 1,759 20,0469 Mansfield ISD 644 634 836 5,72310 Little Elm ISD 669 630 939 6,99611 McKinney ISD 732 621 1,315 3,03612 Allen ISD 631 548 1,023 1,44713 Plano ISD 398 385 925 1,38314 Rockwall ISD 529 377 1,705 8,07315 Crowley ISD 406 368 2,009 8,22916 Wylie ISD 339 350 502 4,15517 Forney ISD 403 329 1,528 11,45818 Fort Worth ISD 347 326 1,225 4,80119 Burleson ISD 373 315 838 3,70620 Anna ISD 353 303 416 3,735

38 Mesquite ISD 91 108 149 4,61239 Coppell ISD 113 105 129 1,05640 Crandall ISD 85 102 121 842

Totals 20,384 18,098 48,859 274,3289

New Housing Activity

Cypress Waters• 3 Multi-Family locations

opened in 2Q13 with 676 units

• Phase 1 of the retail development is expected to be opening in 2Q14

• Single Family locations are scheduled to begin later in the development

• Developers are estimating up to 10,000 residences when completed

10

nm

nm

nm

nm

nm

nm

nm

nm

nm

SUMMITT

TOWN CREEK

SANTA ROSA

THE ENCLAVE

CASA VALLEY

OAK PARK VILLAGE

VILLAS AT COPPELL

THE VILLAS CONDOS

WINDANCE TOWNHOMES

CAMDEN VALLEY PARK

TOWNLAKE OF COPPELL

VILLAS OF VISTA RIDGE

MEADOWRIDGE TOWNHOMES

TREE TOP VILLAS CONDOS

THE REGENCY BY THE LAKE

CREEKSIDE MOBILE HOME PARK

REFLECTIONS AT VALLEY RANCH

GOLDEN TRIANGLE MOBILE HOME PARKWILSON

AUSTIN

PINKERTON

TOWN CENTER

MOCKINGBIRD

DENTON CREEK

COTTONWOOD CREEK

Apartment and Mobile Home Yields

TOT_YLD0.129032 - 0.356436

0.356437 - 0.713542

0.713543 - 1.103093

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New Housing Activity

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80 Starts Closings Housing Inventory

Starts 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Closings 2009 2010 2011 2012 20131Q 3 16 16 27 22 1Q 26 18 11 20 152Q 30 30 43 29 25 2Q 15 30 25 24 313Q 26 24 44 46 3Q 11 32 49 264Q 29 30 5 20 4Q 30 23 41 33Total 88 100 108 122 47 Total 82 103 126 103 46

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Top 5 Subdivisions ‐ 1Q13 (Ranked by Annual Closings)Rank Subdivision

Annual Starts

Quarter Starts

Annual Closings

Quarter Closings

1 Villas at Emerald Park 17 1 39 32 Royal Oaks (Coppell) 21 0 21 13 Grand Estates at Northlake Hills 9 2 12 44 Alexander Court (Coppell) 8 0 8 15 Hemingway Court TH 30 10 7 3

TOTALS 113 21 96 15

Annual Closing Distribution 1Q13

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Vacant Developed Lots 1Q13

Top 5 Subdivisions ‐ 1Q13 (Ranked by Vacant Developed Lots)

Rank Subdivision VDL Future1 Red Hawk Villas 48 02 Main Street Coppell 19 03 Grand Estates at Northlake Hills 17 04 Willow Park (Coppell) 17 05 Hemingway Court TH 8 0

TOTALS 126 0

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Westhaven

Blackberry Farm

Future Lots 1Q13

Top 7 Subdivisions ‐ 1Q13 (Ranked by Future Inventory)

Rank Subdivision VDLFuture

1 Westhaven 0 2972 Blackberry Farm Addition 0 823 Ridgecrest Estates 0 264 Carter Addition 0 225 Bellacere Addition 0 86 Petterson Addition 0 77 Villas of Southwestern 0 7

TOTALS 84 449 15

New Housing Activity

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New Housing Activity

The Bridges atLas Colinas

415 lots

The Bridges at Las Colinas• 415 Single Family Homes• Phase 1 is under construction with 166 lots• Future phases = 260 and 625 lots• Total lots = 1,300

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260 lots

625 lots

New Housing Activity

East

have

nWesthaven

Easthaven• 58 Single Family Homes• Still in planning stages

Westhaven• 297 Single Family Homes• Still in planning stages

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New Housing Activity

Belmont Landing

Belmont Landing• 55 Single Family Homes• Lots delivered in 3Q14• Homes in the $400’s

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New Housing Activity

Old

Tow

nPh

ase

II

Old Town Phase II• 64 Single Family Homes• Patio Homes – site plan

approved July 13

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Magnolia North Addition• 28 Single Family Homes• Plan approved on June 2013• Homes in the 500’s

Denton Tap R

oad

New Housing Activity

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Enrollment History

*Yellow box = largest grade per year*Green box = second largest grade per year

Year (Oct.) EE Pre‐K K 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th TotalTotal 

GrowthTotal 

Percent2009/10 36 130 689 707 686 708 798 775 772 799 815 824 797 728 718 9,9822010/11 46 125 664 730 726 705 745 825 844 802 823 866 813 793 710 10,217 235 2.4%2011/12 53 130 761 751 776 795 751 798 881 870 852 870 834 797 757 10,676 459 4.5%2012/13 55 120 695 801 809 807 861 823 863 898 897 918 841 838 773 10,999 323 3.0%2013/14 48 137 736 787 862 843 876 901 892 871 904 921 899 865 817 11,359 360 3.3%

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• Enrollment has grown 1,377 since 2009.• Growth rate has averaged 3.3% since 2009.

Ten Year ForecastBy Grade Level

*Yellow box = largest grade per year*Green box = second largest grade per year

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Year (Oct.) EE Pre‐K K 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th TotalTotal 

GrowthTotal 

Percent2009/10 36 130 689 707 686 708 798 775 772 799 815 824 797 728 718 9,9822010/11 46 125 664 730 726 705 745 825 844 802 823 866 813 793 710 10,217 235 2.4%2011/12 53 130 761 751 776 795 751 798 881 870 852 870 834 797 757 10,676 459 4.5%2012/13 55 120 695 801 809 807 861 823 863 898 897 918 841 838 773 10,999 323 3.0%2013/14 48 137 736 787 862 843 876 901 892 871 904 921 899 865 817 11,359 360 3.3%2014/15 48 137 764 826 832 894 887 925 962 910 896 956 904 905 844 11,690 331 2.9%2015/16 48 137 767 837 869 868 928 932 994 993 931 972 936 920 883 12,015 325 2.8%2016/17 48 137 787 852 898 912 909 981 1,001 1,020 1,026 1,004 949 938 876 12,338 323 2.7%2017/18 48 137 818 875 908 932 957 959 1,052 1,028 1,053 1,086 985 957 908 12,703 365 3.0%2018/19 48 137 845 908 930 947 975 1,008 1,029 1,079 1,063 1,122 1,061 995 931 13,078 375 2.9%2019/20 48 137 868 934 963 968 992 1,023 1,086 1,055 1,115 1,128 1,098 1,073 971 13,459 381 2.9%2020/21 48 137 884 951 991 1,005 1,017 1,044 1,096 1,115 1,091 1,184 1,104 1,109 1,043 13,819 360 2.7%2021/22 48 137 907 961 1,008 1,037 1,055 1,071 1,123 1,128 1,152 1,158 1,158 1,116 1,080 14,139 320 2.3%2022/23 48 137 914 994 1,013 1,047 1,085 1,110 1,153 1,155 1,166 1,216 1,132 1,170 1,087 14,427 288 2.0%2023/24 48 137 935 999 1,054 1,062 1,099 1,143 1,189 1,187 1,194 1,230 1,190 1,144 1,139 14,750 323 2.2%

Ten Year ForecastBy Elementary Campus

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Current Fall ProjectionsCampus Name 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24Austin Elementary 586 597 590 613 630 653 666 681 688 703 721Cottonwood Creek El 534 549 578 575 581 589 594 598 605 611 618Denton Creek El 589 613 609 621 624 648 676 707 740 769 793Lakeside Elementary 602 600 597 605 599 608 614 626 637 649 658Mockingbird Elementary 654 653 634 644 645 655 660 664 674 669 661Pinkerton Elementary 413 422 454 499 550 604 670 738 806 875 940Town Center Elementary 533 557 557 573 606 611 627 629 636 634 637Valley Ranch Elementary 698 734 765 785 793 804 797 799 806 814 829Wilson Elementary 581 588 602 609 606 626 629 635 632 624 620Elementary Total 5,190 5,313 5,386 5,524 5,634 5,798 5,933 6,077 6,224 6,348 6,477Elem. Growth 219 123 73 138 110 164 135 144 147 124 129

Ten Year ForecastBy Middle School & High School Campus

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Current Fall ProjectionsCoppell Middle East 825 891 984 1,006 1,008 985 1,029 1,047 1,083 1,091 1,104Coppell Middle North 870 887 933 958 983 971 979 990 1,006 1,028 1,057Coppell Middle West 972 990 1,001 1,083 1,142 1,215 1,248 1,265 1,314 1,355 1,409Middle Total 2,667 2,768 2,918 3,047 3,133 3,171 3,256 3,302 3,403 3,474 3,570Middle Growth 9 101 150 129 86 38 85 46 101 71 96Coppell High School 3,058 3,184 3,285 3,347 3,490 3,658 3,817 3,978 4,044 4,137 4,231New Tech High School 444 425 426 420 446 451 453 462 468 468 472High School Total 3,502 3,609 3,711 3,767 3,936 4,109 4,270 4,440 4,512 4,605 4,703High School Growth 133 107 102 56 169 173 161 170 72 93 98

TOTAL 11,359 11,690 12,015 12,338 12,703 13,078 13,459 13,819 14,139 14,427 14,750Student Growth 360 331 325 323 365 375 381 360 320 288 323

Summary

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Economy• Texas economy continues to out-perform the nation with 7 of the top 10 job growth

cities in the country.• DFW #1 job growth city in the country in number of jobs created.• DFW #2 in new home starts with more than 20,426 starts over the last 12 months.• DFW market showing strong growth in sales and increasing values with the average

home value up more than 9%.

Coppell ISD• Coppell ISD new home construction positioned for strong growth with several new

developments to be delivered in the next 6-12 months.• Five year enrollment growth of 1,719 students.• Ten-Year enrollment growth 3,391 students. • Pinkerton Elementary and Coppell West Middle catching most of the growth.• Coppell West and East Middle schools over 1,000 enrollment in 2016.• High School enrollment approaching 3,500 in the year 2017.• District enrollment will likely exceed 13,000 fall 2017.