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New Product Trends 2005Non-Food

Valerie Skala Walker

VP, Analytic Product Management, IRI

valerie.walker@infores.com

March 1, 2005

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Overview Non-food

Looking back What happened to last year's Pacesetters 2003-2004 Pacesetters

Looking forward 2005 New Brands to Watch Trends

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$331

$138

$109

$77

$76

$73

$72

$70

$62

$60

Claritin

Gillette Mach 3 Turbo

Colgate Simply White

Dove Hair Care

Swiffer Wet Jet*

Pampers Easy Ups

Garnier Fructis Hair Care

Schick Xtreme 3

Tampax Pearl

Alavert

Year-One FDMx Sales ($MM)

Top 10 New Brands of 2003: Where are they now?

SOURCE: IRI InfoScan Reviews, year-one sales for the Top 10 new brands introduced between Feb ’02 and Jan ’03, compared versus CY2004 sales. * Mops category sales figures are based on a reduced Mass Merch sample.

2004

$273

$166

$29

$82

$56

$81

$136

$70

$89

$55

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Which NON-FOOD brand was #1 in year-one FDMx dollar sales?

$14

$8 $5

$18 $15

$16

$30

$11

$3

$9

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$239

$95

$55

$54

$54

$51

$49

$42

$42

$38

Prilosec OTC Antacid Tabs

Crest Whitestrips Premium

Schick Intuition

Schick Quattro

Crest Whitening Expr.

L'Oreal Dermo Expertise

Crest Night Effects

Mucinex

Olay Regenerist

Tylenol 8 Hour

Year-One FDMx Sales ($MM)

Health Remedy

Personal Appearance

Top-Selling New Non-Food Brands, 2003-04

Source: IRI InfoScan Reviews FDMx $ sales, new brands with full year post-launch as of 12/26/04

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Top 10 Non-Food Brands – Ad Spending

* Source: Nielsen Media Research, total measured media spending

Ad $MM*$71

$98

$45

$44

$49

$37

$57

$9

$55

$62Source: IRI InfoScan Reviews FDMx $ sales, new brands with full year post-launch as of 12/26/04

Year-One FDMx Sales ($MM)

$239

$95

$55

$54

$54

$51

$49

$42

$42

$38

Prilosec OTC Antacid Tabs

Crest Whitestrips Premium

Schick Intuition

Schick Quattro

Crest Whitening Expr.

L'Oreal Dermo Expertise

Crest Night Effects

Mucinex

Olay Regenerist

Tylenol 8 Hour

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$68

$59

$49

$41

$37

$33

$32

$32

$31

$133Gillette M3 Power razor

Gillette Venus Divine razor

Glad Force Flex trash bags

Brilliant Brunette hair care

Cortislim weight control tablet

Downy Simple Pleasures

Pantene Full & Thick hair care

Glade Wisp air fresh. (FD only)

Colgate Max Fresh toothpaste

Scrub'g Bubbles toilet brush

Projected Year-One FDMx Sales ($MM)

Non-Food Ones To Watch in 2005, < 1 year old

Source: IRI InfoScan Reviews, FDMx sales from each brand’s launch through 12/26/04, projected to estimate total year-one sales.

Weeks in Mrkt

40

20

48

16

16

48

24

20

32

44

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Leading Trends in Home, Health, and Beauty Care in 2003-2005

I gave at the office Vitality: feeling good, looking good

Value - on my termsConnections / Legacy

Old brands try to regenerate interest in their category with innovative delivery systems that attract consumer attention

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Bathroom Cleaning

$16mm Y1

est. Y1 $27mm

est. Y1 $31mm

Source: IRI InfoScan Reviews, actual or estimated year-one FDMx sales based on from each brand’s launch through 12/26/04.

new

Toilet Brushes: $72 mm Y1 FDMx

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Around the Kitchen and Laundry Room

Source: IRI InfoScan Reviews, actual or estimated year-one FDMx sales based on from each brand’s launch through 12/26/04.

est. Y1 $59mm

Y1 $35mmest. Y1 $21mm

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Air Freshening / Odor Neutralizing Sprays

Source: IRI InfoScan Reviews, actual Food-Drug sales from each brand’s launch date through 12/26/04. NOTE: This is a rare Reviews category for which we only report Food+Drug outlet sales, not Total FDMx.

Febreze Air Effects $12 mm CY2004

Oust#13 - $33mm Y1$65mm CY2004

Lysol Neutra-Air$26mm 2004

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Decorative and "Motion" Air Fresheners

#8 Ones to Watch est. $32mm Y1

Source: IRI InfoScan Reviews, actual Food-Drug sales from each brand’s launch date through 12/26/04. NOTE: This is a rare Reviews category for which we only report Food+Drug outlet sales, not Total FDMx.

#47 - $15mm Y1

tbd

#27 Ones to Watch est. $19mm Y1

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He's So Vain

$9mm$16mm

Source: IRI InfoScan Reviews, actual or estimated year-one FDMx sales based on each brand’s launch through 12/26/04.

#19 - $27mm Y1 #23 - $25mm Y1

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DIY Botox / Face Lift / Facial Peel

Alternative to "drastic measures" like peels,

surgery, lasers

Reduce wrinkles without Botox

injections

Like a salon facial

Microderm- abrasion

Facial Peel

Source: IRI InfoScan Reviews, actual or estimated year-one FDMx sales based on each brand’s launch through 12/26/04.

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Interesting Make-Up News from 2004

#30 on 2003-2004 Pacesetters $22mm Y1

Source: IRI InfoScan Reviews, actual or estimated year-one FDMx sales based on each brand’s launch through 12/26/04.

#72 on Brands to Watch Listest. $9mm Y1

#39 on 2003-2004 Pacesetters List$18mm Y1

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Misc. Health Remedies: Wart Removers

Cost $20 - $25, but work in one treatment

Previous products only cost $9 but took weeks of repeated treatment to work

Grew the category, now a 50% $ share of category (25% unit share)

$10mm Y1

$15mm Y1

est. $17mm Y1

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Health Care

Airborne Just came out in Q4 '04

Only in 41% of drugstores and very few supermarkets

Not yet a Pacesetter but getting good buzz

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Home Testing Kits

Self-diagnosis & health monitoring via home testing kits

The latest:

- Test your cholesterol level

- Determine if you're reaching menopause

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Next Steps If you'd like a copy of this material ASAP including this year's

dataset (for sale after this conference for $2,000): Leave your card with me here or at the Analytics booth with and I'll

email it to you Bring your JumpDrive by the Analytics booth in the Idea Exchange

exhibit hall and I'll copy it for you Email me any time at Valerie.Walker@infores.com

Visit the Idea Exchange to learn about AttitudeLink surveys of new product triers & repeaters ShopperLink in-store studies Individual User within household Attribute Drivers 3 - predict sales & incrementality for new product

concepts

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Ways to Drive Brand Growth Through Innovation

Sustaining - Established brand line extensions- Keep pace with population and market growth

Market Creating

Expansioninto adjacent categories

Disruptive Innovation within own category- Up-market march- Down shift (specialist to mass market)

Brand Growth

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$295

$214

$185

$172

$98

$83

$78

$67

$62

$51

$51

Bottled Water (excl. bulk/jug)

Natural Cheese Slices & String

Snack Nuts

Rfg Uncooked Meats

Energy Drinks

Home Air Fresheners

Rfg Milk Substitutes

Olive Oil

Frz Breakfast (excl. Waffle)

Facial Anti-Aging

All-Purpose Cleaning Cloths

Dollar Sales Change vs. YAG

2004 Growth Heroes: Health News, Vitality, Convenience(+15% and +$50 million CY2004 vs. YAG, real volume growth, still growing in Q4'04)

Source: InfoScan Reviews, Net FSP $ Sales, CY2004, FDMx (except Groc. Only for Rfg Meats, Frz Breakfast, & Air Fresh)

% Chg

..… 15%28%

………… 15%26%

………………….. 62%19%

……………………… 27%16%

……………………. 15%17%

Red Bull

Many

.........................................40%

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When category is -

ADVERTISE YOUR BRAND

to grow share and defend against lower-priced alternatives

An Important Lesson

Many