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Page 1: Copyright © 2007 Consumer Electronics Association Tim Herbert Sr. Director, Market Research Consumer Electronics Association therbert@ce.org Making Sense.
Page 2: Copyright © 2007 Consumer Electronics Association Tim Herbert Sr. Director, Market Research Consumer Electronics Association therbert@ce.org Making Sense.

Copyright © 2007 Consumer Electronics Association

Tim HerbertSr. Director, Market Research

Consumer Electronics Association

[email protected]

Making Sense of Our Brave New World5 Trends in Consumer Technologies Devices

Software

Packaged Content

DRM

Distribution

DIY ContentNetworks

Platforms

Services

Page 3: Copyright © 2007 Consumer Electronics Association Tim Herbert Sr. Director, Market Research Consumer Electronics Association therbert@ce.org Making Sense.

Copyright © 2007 Consumer Electronics Association

Point A Points B, C, D…

Page 4: Copyright © 2007 Consumer Electronics Association Tim Herbert Sr. Director, Market Research Consumer Electronics Association therbert@ce.org Making Sense.

Copyright © 2007 Consumer Electronics Association

It “Goes to Eleven” Phenomenon Drives EverythingFaster, smaller, clearer, greater capacity, cheaper, etc.

1

Enriched ConnectionsNetworks (home, cloud, sneaker, or social) offer greater utility

3

Distribution Redefined New methods, ideas and models better connect consumers & content

4

More Displays, More OptionsNumber of screens in the home/out of the home continues to expand

2

Empowerment | Personalization AcceleratesDevices, tools, and information further empower consumers to work and be entertained when, where and how they want, while allowing companies to better target their audiences

5

5 Trends to Watch

Page 5: Copyright © 2007 Consumer Electronics Association Tim Herbert Sr. Director, Market Research Consumer Electronics Association therbert@ce.org Making Sense.

Copyright © 2007 Consumer Electronics Association

For a number of reasons, it is tough to predict exactly what products and services will emerge, but it is safe to assume there will be plenty of product improvements and innovations at the margin.

“It Goes to Eleven” Phenomenon

As usual, consumer electronics products will get smaller, faster, clearer, lighter, more efficient, increased capacity, longer runtime, higher resolution, more reliable and larger screens, while getting less expensive.

1

Page 6: Copyright © 2007 Consumer Electronics Association Tim Herbert Sr. Director, Market Research Consumer Electronics Association therbert@ce.org Making Sense.

Copyright © 2007 Consumer Electronics Association

A Brief History of Time

200

1

196

8

200

7

200

6

199

1

199

5

199

0

193

0

9.7 CE productsper household

25 CE productsper household

Year when product reached ~25% household penetration

Page 7: Copyright © 2007 Consumer Electronics Association Tim Herbert Sr. Director, Market Research Consumer Electronics Association therbert@ce.org Making Sense.

Copyright © 2007 Consumer Electronics Association

2%

8%

11%

31%

32%

37%

39%

43%

62%

66%

Digital photo frame

Smartphones

Portable navigation

Portable gaming device

Portable DVD player

Notebook PC

Portable MP3/DM player

Digital TV

Digital camera

Desktop PC

More Displays, More Options

45%

32%

32%

28%

5%

12%

1% all | 21% DM

10%

-3%

5%

2

Google Gas Pump Display?

Page 8: Copyright © 2007 Consumer Electronics Association Tim Herbert Sr. Director, Market Research Consumer Electronics Association therbert@ce.org Making Sense.

Copyright © 2007 Consumer Electronics Association

A Closer Look at Television

1.5 2.54.1

8.311.4

23.5

30.533.6

36.137.4 38.2

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007e 2008p 2009p 2010p 2011p

e – estimated, p - projected

LCD = 18.5 million units shipped in ‘07

Digital Displays | Millions of units

46% decline in prices

HDTV penetration rate ~32%

Page 9: Copyright © 2007 Consumer Electronics Association Tim Herbert Sr. Director, Market Research Consumer Electronics Association therbert@ce.org Making Sense.

Copyright © 2007 Consumer Electronics Association

Enriched Connections3

Broadband = 51%, but many newbies

30% have a wired or

wireless home network

Home Theater = 26%

• Wide area connections (WiMax, WiFi/Hotspots, Cell, Broadband, SlingMedia)

• Local area connections (Ethernet, WiFi, HDMI)

• Personal networks (RF, Bluetooth, OE integration)

• Connecting services (VOIP, vlogs, blogs, social networks)

Page 10: Copyright © 2007 Consumer Electronics Association Tim Herbert Sr. Director, Market Research Consumer Electronics Association therbert@ce.org Making Sense.

Copyright © 2007 Consumer Electronics Association

1%

16%

17%

20%

29%

29%

44%

46%

47%

54%

88%

91%

Other

Access PC Documents

Video Conferencing

Email

Access the Internet

Listen to PC Audio

View Digital Photos

Play Video Games

View Digital Video Files

Watch Content from DVR

Watch TV Programs

Watch DVDs

Desired Activities Using Home TV

Share

Interact

Personalize

Explore

Connect

Control

Page 11: Copyright © 2007 Consumer Electronics Association Tim Herbert Sr. Director, Market Research Consumer Electronics Association therbert@ce.org Making Sense.

Copyright © 2007 Consumer Electronics Association

Video Content Watched on a PC

6%

18%

19%

21%

28%

33%

36%

39%

49%

Other

Home movies

Sports

TV shows

Video games

Movies

Music videos

Weather

News

Page 12: Copyright © 2007 Consumer Electronics Association Tim Herbert Sr. Director, Market Research Consumer Electronics Association therbert@ce.org Making Sense.

Copyright © 2007 Consumer Electronics Association

Distribution Redefined4

Page 13: Copyright © 2007 Consumer Electronics Association Tim Herbert Sr. Director, Market Research Consumer Electronics Association therbert@ce.org Making Sense.

Copyright © 2007 Consumer Electronics Association

Sources of PC Video

3%

19%

26%

33%

47%

70%

Other

Disc based games

Online games

Digital video files

DVD

Internet streams

• 10% have ripped DVD content

– Including home videos• 16% have burned digital

videos to DVD

YouTube: 206 million unique visitors

2.9 billion downloads through iTunes

Page 14: Copyright © 2007 Consumer Electronics Association Tim Herbert Sr. Director, Market Research Consumer Electronics Association therbert@ce.org Making Sense.

Copyright © 2007 Consumer Electronics Association

Seeking a Change?

Content Distribution Method Current Preferred Difference

Physically move content 50% 25% -25%

Centrally stored content 5% 23% 18%

Place shifting device 5% 13% 8%

Movie copies of content 10% 5% -5%

Use network 9% 5% -4%

Physically move device 21% 4% -17%

Remotely stored content NA 1% NA

Other 2% 1% -1%

None 31% 24% -7%

Page 15: Copyright © 2007 Consumer Electronics Association Tim Herbert Sr. Director, Market Research Consumer Electronics Association therbert@ce.org Making Sense.

Copyright © 2007 Consumer Electronics Association

27%

29%

34%

36%

49%

52%

28%

33%

27%

37%

37%

68%

CDsDVDs

Fewer restrictions with physical media

Afraid something may happen to the digital file

Physical copy easier to share with friends/family

Minimal hassle factor

Like in-person shopping experience

Like to display collection of DVDs or CDs

Or, Does Physical Media Still Appeal?Reasons for Preferring Physical CDs or DVDs

Page 16: Copyright © 2007 Consumer Electronics Association Tim Herbert Sr. Director, Market Research Consumer Electronics Association therbert@ce.org Making Sense.

Copyright © 2007 Consumer Electronics Association

Today, Video Entertainment = Home

LocationPercent of

UsersPercent of

TimeHome 97% 75%Friends/Families Home 31% 8%Movie Theater 30% 6%Work 12% 4%In Car 9% 2%Public Transportation 8% 2%School 4% 1%At the Gym 4% 1%Walking Around 3% 1%Other 1% 0%Total 199% 100%

Page 17: Copyright © 2007 Consumer Electronics Association Tim Herbert Sr. Director, Market Research Consumer Electronics Association therbert@ce.org Making Sense.

Copyright © 2007 Consumer Electronics Association

Tomorrow, Entertainment = Home + X?

• 34% say portability of content important/very important

• 27% interested/very interested in media server for in-home distribution

• 86% say picture quality important/very important; 79% say price; 73% say ease of accessing

Page 18: Copyright © 2007 Consumer Electronics Association Tim Herbert Sr. Director, Market Research Consumer Electronics Association therbert@ce.org Making Sense.

Copyright © 2007 Consumer Electronics Association

Empowerment | Personalization5

10%25%

DVR Penetration

Mid-year 2005

Mid-year 2007

Page 19: Copyright © 2007 Consumer Electronics Association Tim Herbert Sr. Director, Market Research Consumer Electronics Association therbert@ce.org Making Sense.

Copyright © 2007 Consumer Electronics Association

8%

58%

34%

Neutral

Negative

Positive

30% of HDTV owner sports fans agree or strongly agree with the statement “companies that advertise in high-definition are more tech savvy.”

Perception of Companies That Advertise in High Definition

Page 20: Copyright © 2007 Consumer Electronics Association Tim Herbert Sr. Director, Market Research Consumer Electronics Association therbert@ce.org Making Sense.

Copyright © 2007 Consumer Electronics Association

It “Goes to Eleven” Phenomenon Drives EverythingFaster, smaller, clearer, greater capacity, cheaper, etc.

1

Enriched ConnectionsNetworks (home, cloud, sneaker, or social) offer greater utility

3

Distribution Redefined New methods, ideas and models better connect consumers & content

4

More Displays, More OptionsNumber of screens in the home/out of the home continues to expand

2

5 Trends to Watch

Empowerment | Personalization AcceleratesDevices, tools, and information further empower consumers to work and be entertained when, where and how they want, while allowing companies to better target their audiences

5

Page 21: Copyright © 2007 Consumer Electronics Association Tim Herbert Sr. Director, Market Research Consumer Electronics Association therbert@ce.org Making Sense.

Copyright © 2007 Consumer Electronics Association

Tim HerbertSr. Director, Market Research

Consumer Electronics Association

[email protected]

Thank You


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