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Copyright 2009 © BAE SYSTEMS All rights reserved Copyright 2009 © BAE SYSTEMS All rights reserved
Reducing fossil fuel demand in theatreUsing simple models to assess optionsNoel Corrigan
26 ISMOR
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Copyright 2009 © BAE SYSTEMS All rights reserved Copyright 2009 © BAE SYSTEMS All rights reserved
Content
• Intro and background
• The SIT vision
• BAE Systems
• User Needs
• Available Technology
• Data gathering
• Fully Burdened Cost of Energy Model
• The study
• Findings
• Where next
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Copyright 2009 © BAE SYSTEMS All rights reserved Copyright 2009 © BAE SYSTEMS All rights reserved
Technology Development• Investment in renewable energy technologies Transactions
$100 Billion estimated in 2006, (UN, New Energy Finance)
Energy Demand Increasing• Energy demand predicted to increase more than 50%
by 2030 and may triple by 2050 • Over 70% of this growth is from developing countries –
shifting economic power to the East• Peak Oil. No increase in supply.
Climate Change Impact • CO2 emissions forecast to increase by 55% by 2030 • Climate Change is causing changes in rainfall patterns,
sea levels are rising, glaciers are retreating, arctic sea-iceis thinning and extreme weather is increasing
Security of Supply Concerns• Can the nation get enough fuel for the forces’ needs?• Long-term tightening of supply among OPEC countries • EIA predicts that Fossil fuels running out: oil –
35 yrs? natural Gas - 60 yrs? & coal - 230yrs? Peak Oil?• Is the military supply chain secure from enemy attack?
Background to the Vision - Real Demands
Driving NewEnergy
Solutions
Governments imposing regulations andincentives to utilise renewable energy
Causing prices of traditionalenergy sources to rise
....and Shared Needs Across Sectors
Co
re N
eed
sC
ore
Nee
ds
Cost implications
There is commonality of needs in the military and civil sectors– however priorities will shift depending on objectives and specific situations
Regulatory & CSR Targets
Cost
Security of Supply
(Battlefield) EffectivenessSource: EIA Source: EIA
Military
Civil
Indi
cativ
e W
eigh
ting
Indi
cativ
e W
eigh
ting
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Copyright 2009 © BAE SYSTEMS All rights reserved Copyright 2009 © BAE SYSTEMS All rights reserved
SIT Capability Vision
Reducing operational dependency on fossil fuels – establish the options for supply of future forces
Civilian market energy sources and technologies options
Alternative system design and usage
Alternative power management sources & approaches
Fuel usage & energy needs vs. likely supply issues
Mission management, training & infrastructure development
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Copyright 2009 © BAE SYSTEMS All rights reserved Copyright 2009 © BAE SYSTEMS All rights reserved
Imperative for change
Priorities
Alignment with UK Defence Technology Plan
Validated modelling and analysis
Senior level UK MoD sponsorship obtained for modelling energy supply
Hypothesis that up to 15% of Defence Budget is energy
related
Clear energy needs across Defence
Save lives
Reduce logistical ‘tail’
Save money
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Copyright 2009 © BAE SYSTEMS All rights reserved Copyright 2009 © BAE SYSTEMS All rights reserved
BAE Systems Approach
Targeted Analysis 1
Targeted Analysis 2
Targeted Analysis 3
Technology Watch
User Requirements
Data Collection
Modelling and Simulation
Funded by BAE Systems Funded by MoD
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Copyright 2009 © BAE SYSTEMS All rights reserved Copyright 2009 © BAE SYSTEMS All rights reserved
MoD Fossil Fuel use
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Copyright 2009 © BAE SYSTEMS All rights reserved Copyright 2009 © BAE SYSTEMS All rights reserved
Coherent Engagement and Support from all MoD Partners
Activity
Stakeholders
Cost CarbonSecurity of Supply Military Effectiveness
(e.g. FE@R and Wait time)
DE&SSUVIPT
DFG Defence Estates
DEC(ELS)
PJHQ
ScenarioOperational
Scenario
DoctrineOrganisation
ACDS Log Ops
LogisticsMDAL
Sources
Joint Overseas
PJHQE in C. DRLC
DE&SMPPS
IPT
DCDC
Measures
Training OperationsBuildings & Infrastructure
DE&SGSG
JF Log C
FLCs
Air Sea Land
DEC (GM)
DE&SFSCIPT
DE&SBISIIPT
SITDTIC
104 Logs Bde
Sustainable Procurement
PO
Sc Gateways
LE JSC
DCDC
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Copyright 2009 © BAE SYSTEMS All rights reserved Copyright 2009 © BAE SYSTEMS All rights reserved
Available technologies
Technology
Reduce demand Increase efficientgeneration
Recycle energyNon-fossil generation
Sustainable buildings
HEDCentral power
stationHeat pumps
CHP
Pyrolysis Plant
Anaerobic digester
WindPhotovoltaics
Nuclear
Scavenging
Smart Grid management
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Copyright 2009 © BAE SYSTEMS All rights reserved Copyright 2009 © BAE SYSTEMS All rights reserved
Fuel use on Op Herrick
Bastion
Diesel £1.00/L
Bastion
Diesel £1.00/L
FOB NowZadFOB NowZad
Fire Bse DwyerFire Bse Dwyer
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Copyright 2009 © BAE SYSTEMS All rights reserved Copyright 2009 © BAE SYSTEMS All rights reserved
Supreme Fuel Source (Pakistan)Supreme Fuel Management Plant (Kandahar)
Gereshk
Lashkagar
Bastion
FOB Edinburgh
FOB Robinson
FOB Keenan
Fire Base Dwyer
FOB Inkerman
Kandahar Airfield
FOB Gibraltar
FOB Delhi
Afghan Scenario-specific modelling
Contractor effortContractor effort Military effortMilitary effort
Scenario Specific Models e.g. simulations
Scenario Specific Models e.g. simulations
Scenario Specific Models e.g. simulations
• Day by day simulation of the overland energy supply chain
• Modelling variations in the supply chain efficiency
• Understanding effort on contractor routes
• Measuring security of supply
• Day by day simulation of the overland energy supply chain
• Modelling variations in the supply chain efficiency
• Understanding effort on contractor routes
• Measuring security of supply
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Copyright 2009 © BAE SYSTEMS All rights reserved Copyright 2009 © BAE SYSTEMS All rights reserved
Modelling the Fully Burdened Cost of Energy
• Validated by MOD Scrutineers - “validation method should be disseminated within BAE Systems as best practice”
• FBCE as a key sustainability metric - MOD Climate Change Strategy definition (analogous to use of FBCF in US)
A novel concept, a unique approach and toolset…A novel concept, a unique approach and toolset…
Training
Operations Estates
Activity Model(s)
£
£ ££
££
£
Cost Model
Fu
lly
Bu
rden
ed C
ost
of
En
erg
y M
od
el*
Output Data
• Fully Burdened Cost
• Logistical Burden
• Effectiveness
• Security of Supply
• CO2 & emissions
Input Data
Demand Data
By year
Sce
nari
o 1
Sce
nari
o 2
Sce
nari
o n
Cro
ss D
Lo
D C
ost
Dat
a
Energy Supply Chain
* UK and European Patent Pending
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Copyright 2009 © BAE SYSTEMS All rights reserved Copyright 2009 © BAE SYSTEMS All rights reserved
The Study
Generate & categorise
options
Evaluate & downselect
options
Analyse options in
detail
Report
Activity 1 Activity 2 Activity 3 Activity 4
List of options
Set of 5 packaged technology options
Final report
Develop scenario specific tools
Populate FBCE toolset
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Copyright 2009 © BAE SYSTEMS All rights reserved Copyright 2009 © BAE SYSTEMS All rights reserved
Option generation
Option Generation: Identified 100+ concepts/technologies
Option Categorisation: Scored options against a set of attributes
Evaluation & Down Selection: Reviewed/grouped options into five packages
All options to exploit smart power management and improvements to
expeditionary campaign infrastructure
Demand Reduction
Package 0
Efficient Generation
Package 1
Vehicle Improvements
Package 2
Large Scale Renewable Generation
Package 3
Small Scale Renewable Generation
Package 4
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Copyright 2009 © BAE SYSTEMS All rights reserved Copyright 2009 © BAE SYSTEMS All rights reserved
Fully burdened cost savings
These savings are from the energy supply chain alone, keeping logistic method constant. The opportunities for optimising the supply chain would bring additional cost saving benefits
Fully burdened cost saving (Per Year)
0%
50%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020Year
Sav
ing
ag
ain
st c
urr
ent
tota
l sp
end
VehicleImprovements
Near termdemandreduactionSmall Scalerenewables
Large scalerenewables
EfficientGeneration
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Copyright 2009 © BAE SYSTEMS All rights reserved Copyright 2009 © BAE SYSTEMS All rights reserved
Small Scale Renewables Package Results
Fuel savingReduction to 60% of current diesel demand in-theatre at full
implementation (57% of baseline demand at main bases,17% at FOBs)
Reduced logistic effortTo deliver this reduced volume, you would save:
• 518 jingly tanker journeys/year by Supreme • 243 close support tanker journeys/year on CLPs
(assuming current storage capacity remains at FOBs but tankers are sent only on threshold)
Cost SavingFully Burdened Cost Saving ~ £10m per year (current fully burdened spend on Diesel in theatre = £60.2m)
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Copyright 2009 © BAE SYSTEMS All rights reserved Copyright 2009 © BAE SYSTEMS All rights reserved
The Study requirement - satisfied
• Identified options for fuel savings in support of the Afghanistan Theatre.
• Conducted initial assessment of viability and benefits of options
• Detailed assessment of impact on the fully burdened cost of energy
• Recommendations made regarding technologies• that could be deployed forthwith• that could be Technology Demonstrators• that could be subject to further research; and• areas for further analysis.
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Copyright 2009 © BAE SYSTEMS All rights reserved Copyright 2009 © BAE SYSTEMS All rights reserved
• Supporting the Capability Vision - Reduced Dependence on Fossil Fuels
• Working in partnership with a pan-MOD stakeholder community
• D Scrutiny validated approach and toolset with cross-domain application:
Land – Current operations
Air – RAF Base & aircraft fleet activities
Sea – Alternative marine fuels
• Supporting Sustainable Procurement
– FBCE is a key sustainability metric referred to in the MOD Climate Change Strategy
– Opportunity for FBCE to support Future Surface Combatant Assessment Phase
A novel concept, a unique approach and toolset…A novel concept, a unique approach and toolset…
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Copyright 2009 © BAE SYSTEMS All rights reserved Copyright 2009 © BAE SYSTEMS All rights reserved
“BAE Systems work has kick started the Energy & Power Management initiative
and facilitated Paul Stein's vision”
David Wilkes, SIT Strategy
“Understanding the fully burdened cost of energy will be key to future acquisition
decision making”
Ian Brookes, Head of the Sustainable Procurement Team, DE&S
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Copyright 2009 © BAE SYSTEMS All rights reserved Copyright 2009 © BAE SYSTEMS All rights reserved
Annex A – Supporting Material
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Major Assumptions
• The figures consider only the military operated facilities in theatre at the time data were collected. These were the Main Operating Bases (MOBs): Bastion, Gereshk, Lashkagar and Kandahar Airfield; and the Forward Operating Bases (FOBs): Fire Base Dwyer, Delhi, Edinburgh, Inkerman, Now Zad, Robinson, and Sangin. As the operation has developed the size, location and names of the bases have changed.
• We have assumed that given no intervention aimed at saving energy, the annual energy demands for the lifetime of the operation will remain at 2008 levels. We have assumed that this current situation persists through the life of the Operation; that is the commitment and military strategy remain unchanged, so that energy demands remain constant. Further, we have assumed that the cost of fuel remains constant. We have assumed that the operation will last until at least 2020.
• In the analysis of Packages we have assumed that the force protection levels are independent of the quantity of fuel being carried by the Combat Logistic Patrol and so constant. We have assumed that the total cost of the force protection for the CLP is allocated to the fully burdened fuel cost.
• We have assumed that military effectiveness is not compromised provided that the bases maintain fuel stockpiles at mandated levels (that is they always have sufficient to cover immediate requirements).