Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+ More Wheels of Reincarnation Or A New PC+, www+ Era? Infinite...

Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+

More Wheels of Reincarnation Or A New PC+, www+ Era?

Infinite processing, memory, and bandwidth

@ zero cost

Gordon Bell

Bay Area Research Center

Microsoft Corporation


The Highly Probable Future c2025 83 items from J. Coates, Futurist, Vol. 84, 1994

8.4 B, english speaking, personally tagged & identified, prosthetic assisted and/or mutant, tense people who have access & control of their medical records

Everything will be smart, responsive to environment.– Sensing of everything… challenge for science & engineering!– Fast broadband network– Smart appliances & AI – Tele-all: shop, vote, meet, work, etc.– Robots do everything, but there may be conflict with labor…

A “managed”, physical and man-made world– Reliable weather reports– “Many natural disasters e.g. floods, earthquakes, will be mitigated, controlled or

prevented” Nobel prize to “economist” for “value of information” No surprises. We can see 10 years, but not 20!


IP On Everything


poochi

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CONSUMER ACCEPTANCECONSUMER ACCEPTANCE

AGRICULTURALAGRICULTURAL

INDUSTRIALINDUSTRIAL

BIOINTELLIGENCEBIOINTELLIGENCE

INFORMATION INFORMATION

R. Satava 29 July 99


PC At An Inflection Point

PCsPCsNon-PCNon-PCdevices and Internetdevices and Internet

The Dawn Of The PC-Plus Era, The Dawn Of The PC-Plus Era, NotNot The Post-PC Era… The Post-PC Era…

devices aggregate via PCs!!! devices aggregate via PCs!!!

Consumer Consumer PCsPCsTV/AVTV/AV MobileMobile

CompanionsCompanions

Household Household ManagementManagement

CommunicationsCommunications Automation Automation & Security & Security


PCTV a.k.a. MilliBillgUsing PCs to drive large screens e.g. tv sets, Plasma Panels

Copyright 1999 Microsoft Corporation

HomeCATV

Analog/digital cable distribution

PC broadcasts are mixed into home CATV in analog and/or MPEG digital

Ethernet Home network

Video capture

“milliBill”

Basic ideas:

1. PC records or plays thru video cable channels. 2. PC “broadcasts” art images, webcams, presentations,

videos, DVDs, etc.3. Ethernet not cable?

Settopbox

Another big bang? Internet to TV and audio: The Net, PC meet the TV

Images from: http://www.nextmonet.comA gallery that sells art on line

Images from: http://www.nextmonet.comA gallery that sells art on line


Voice to WEBVoice to WEBBridgeBridge

Web ServerWeb Server

TheTheWebWeb

DataBaseDataBase

PSTNPSTN

The Next ConvergencePOTS connects to the Weba.k.a. Phone-Web Gateways

PC will prevail for the next decade as the dominant platform… its COTS or COTS’ AND www! Moore’s Law increases performance; and

alternatively reduces prices PC server clusters with low cost OS beat

proprietary switches, smPs, and DSMs Home entertainment & control …

– Very large disks (1TB by 2005) to “store everything” personal

– Screens to enhance use Lack of last mile bandwidth to move pictures,

data, and interact favors home mainframes aka PCs

C = Commercial; C’ = Consumer


SNAP … c1995

Scalable Network And Platforms A View of Computing in 2000+

We all missed the impact of WWW!

Gordon Bell Jim GrayNetworkPlatform

How Will Future Computers Be Built?

Thesis: SNAP: Scalable Networks and Platforms• Upsize from desktop to world-scale computer• based on a few standard components

Because: • Moore’s law:

exponential progress• Standardization & Commoditization• Stratification and competition

When: Sooner than you think!• Massive standardization gives massive use • Economic forces are enormous

NetworkPlatform


Volume drives simple,cost to standardplatforms

MPPs1-4 processor mP

1-20 processor mP

Distributed workstations

Clustered Computers

price for high speed

interconnect

price

performance

Stand-aloneDesk tops

PCs


The economics of operating systems and databases


Inno

vatio

n

The Virtuous Economic Cycle drives the PC industry… & Beowulf

Volum

e

Competition

Standards

Utility/value

DOJ


The UNIX Trap:creating the myth of “open systems”

“Standard” has meant different!

VendorIX platforms have created the “downsizing” market that provides an apparent, cost reduction

Hardware platform vendors lock-in users with servers ofproprietary UNIX dialects and unique chipsto maintain margins for chip and UNIX development

VendorIX R & D costs $1.4 - $2 billion

Implied selling price $10 - 14 billion for $1.4 billion, or a sales tax of 1 million UNIX units of $10,000

Users hostage with client-server, database, and apps

An implicit or unconscious cartel has formed that maintains the industry status quo


SNAP Architecture----------


ComputingSNAPbuilt entirelyfrom PCs Wide & Local

Area Networksfor: terminal,

PC, workstation,& servers

Centralized& departmental

uni- & mP servers(UNIX & NT)

Legacymainframes &

minicomputersservers & terms

Wide-areaglobal

network

Legacymainframe &

minicomputerservers & terminals

Centralized& departmental

servers buit fromPCs

scalable computers

built from PCs

TC=TV+PChome ...

(CATV or ATM or satellite)

???

Portables

A space, time (bandwidth), & generation scalable environment

Person servers (PCs)

Person servers (PCs)

MobileNets


GB with NT, Compaq, & HP cluster

In a decade we can/will have: more powerful personal computers

– processing 10-100x; multiprocessors-on-a-chip– 4x resolution (2K x 2K) displays to impact paper– Large, wall-sized and watch-sized displays– low cost, storage of one terabyte for personal use

adequate networking? PCs now operate at 1 Gbps– ubiquitous access = today’s fast LANs– Competitive wireless networking

One chip, networked platforms e.g. light bulbs, cameras everywhere, & managed by PCs!

Some well-defined platforms that compete with the PC for mind (time) and market sharewatch, pocket, body implant, home

Inevitable, continued cyberization… the challenge… interfacing platforms and people.


High Performance Computing

A 60+ year view



Star Bridge


Linux super howls


Dead Supercomputer Society

Dead Supercomputer Society ACRI Alliant American Supercomputer Ametek Applied Dynamics Astronautics BBN CDC Convex Cray Computer Cray Research Culler-Harris Culler Scientific Cydrome Dana/Ardent/Stellar/Stardent Denelcor Elexsi ETA Systems Evans and Sutherland Computer Floating Point Systems Galaxy YH-1

Goodyear Aerospace MPP Gould NPL Guiltech Intel Scientific Computers International Parallel Machines Kendall Square Research Key Computer Laboratories MasPar Meiko Multiflow Myrias Numerix Prisma Tera Thinking Machines Saxpy Scientific Computer Systems (SCS) Soviet Supercomputers Supertek Supercomputer Systems Suprenum Vitesse Electronics


Steve Squires & Cray


0.0001

0.001

0.01

0.1

1

10

100

1000

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Bell Prize and Future Peak Tflops (t)

Petaflops study target

NEC

XMP NCube

CM2

*IBM


Top 10 tpc-c

Top two Compaq systems are:Top two Compaq systems are:1.1 & 1.5X faster than IBM SPs;1.1 & 1.5X faster than IBM SPs;1/3 price of IBM1/3 price of IBM1/5 price of SUN1/5 price of SUN

Courtesy of Dr. Thomas Sterling, Caltech


Contributions of Beowulf

An experiment in parallel computing systems Established vision low cost high end computing Demonstrated effectiveness of PC clusters for some (not all)

classes of applications Provided networking software Provided cluster management tools Conveyed findings to broad community Tutorials and the book GB: Provided design standard to rally community! Standards beget: books, trained people, software … virtuous

cycle



High performance architecture/program timeline

1950 . 1960 . 1970 . 1980 . 1990 . 2000Vtubes Trans. MSI(mini) Micro RISC nMicr

Sequential programming---->------------------------------(single execution stream)<SIMD Vector--//--------------- Parallelization---

Parallel programs aka Cluster Computing <---------------multicomputers <--MPP era------ultracomputers 10X in size & price! 10x MPP

“in situ” resources 100x in //sm NOW VLSCCgeographically dispersed Grid


Computer types

NetwrkedSupers…

GRIDLegionCondor Beowulf NT clusters

VPPuni

T3E SP2(mP) NOW

NEC mP

SGI DSM clusters &SGI DSM

NEC super Cray X…T(all mPv)

MainframesMultis

WSs PCs

-------- Connectivity--------

WAN/LAN SAN DSM SM

mic

ros

v

ecto

r

Clusters

Technical computer types

NetwrkedSupers…

GRID

LegionCondor Beowulf

VPPuni

SP2(mP) NOW

NEC mP

T series



MainframesMultis

WSs PCs

WAN/LAN SAN DSM SM

mic

ros

v

ecto

r

OldWorld( one

programstream)

New world: Clustered

Computing(multiple program

streams)

Technical computer types

NetwrkedSupers…

GRID

LegionCondor Beowulf

VPPuni

SP2(mP) NOW

NEC mP

T series



MainframesMultis

WSs PCs

WAN/LAN SAN DSM SM

mic

ros

v

ecto

r

VectorizeParallellelizeMPI, Linda, PVM,

Cactus, ???distributed function

Computing Parallellelize


Gaussian Parallelism


Beyond Moore’s Law …>10 yrs Just FCB (faster, cheaper, better)…

COTS will soon mean consumer off the shelf Moore’s Law and technology progress likely to continue for

another decade for: processing & memory,

storage, LANs, & WANs are really evolving System-on-a chip of interesting sizes will emerge to create 0 cost

systems No DNA, molecular, or quantum computers, or new stores Any displacement technology is unlikely

… Carver Mead’s Law c1980A technology takes 11 years to get established

On the other hand, we are on Internet time!

High Performance Computing Supers we knew are Japanese…

we have to stay the course. We actually may win! PC will continue to erode capacity need Scalability & COTS are in… but you have to roll your own else pay

VendorIX taxes Beowulf is $14K/TB ( 6 x 4 x 40 GB) IBM 4000R 1 rack: 2x42 500Mhz processors, 84 GB, 84 disks (3TB

@36GB/disk)$420K … still cheaper than the “big buys”

$10-20K/node for special purpose vs $2K for a MAC

EMC, IBM at $1 million/TB; vs $14K We should back radical experiments!


We get more of everything


Computer ops/sec x word length / $

y = 1E-248e0.2918x

1.E-06

1.E-03

1.E+00

1.E+03

1.E+06

1.E+09

1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

.=1.565^(t-1959.4)

doubles every 7.5

doubles every 2.3

doubles every 1.0


0.01

0.1

1

10

100

1000

10000

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996P

erf

orm

an

ce in

Mfl

op

/s

Micros

Supers

8087 802876881

80387

R2000

i860

RS6000/540Alpha

RS6000/590Alpha

Cray 1S

Cray X-MP

Cray 2 Cray Y-MP Cray C90Cray T90

1998

Growth of microprocessor performance

1980

1982


Albert Yu predictions ‘96

When 2000 2006

Clock (MHz) 900 4000 4.4x

MTransistors 40 350 8.75x

Mops 2400 20,000 8.3x

Die (sq. in.) 1.1 1.4 1.3x


Processor Limit: DRAM GapµProc60%/yr..

DRAM7%/yr..

1

10

100

10001980

1981

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

DRAM

CPU

1982

Processor-MemoryPerformance Gap:(grows 50% / year)

Per

form

ance

• Alpha 21264 full cache miss / instructions executed: 180 ns/1.7 ns =108 clks x 4 or 432 instructions• Caches in Pentium Pro: 64% area, 88% transistors*Taken from Patterson-Keeton Talk to SigMod

“Moore’s Law”


Sony Playstation export limiits


Things get cheaper


Exponential change of 10X per decade causes real turmoil!100000

10000

1000

100

$K 10

1

0.1

0.01 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

8 MB8 MB

1 MB1 MB

256 KB256 KB

64 KB64 KB

16 KB16 KB

Timeshared Timeshared systemssystems

Single-userSingle-usersystemssystems


VAX Planning Model 1975:I didn’t believe it

The model was very good – 1978 timeshared $250K VAXen

cost about $8K in 1997!

Costs declined > 20% – users got lots more memory than I predicted

Single user systems didn’t come down as fast, unless you consider PDAs

VAX ran out of address bits!

System-on-a-chip alternatives

FPGA Sea of un-committed gate arrays

Xylinx, Altera

Compile a system

Unique processor for every app

Tensillica

Systolic | array

Many pipelined or parallel processors

DSP | VLIW

Special purpose processors

TI

Pc & Mp.

ASICS

Gen. Purpose cores. Specialized by I/O, etc.

Intel, Lucent, IBM

Universal Micro

Multiprocessor array, programmable I/o

Cradle

Cradle: Universal Microsystemtrading Verilog & hardware for C/C++

Single part for all apps Programming @ run time via FPGA & ROM 5 quad mPs at 3 Gflops/quad = 15 Glops Single shared memory space, caches Programmable periphery including:

1 GB/s; 2.5 GipsPCI, 100 baseT, firewire

$4 per flops; 150 mW/Gflops

UMS : VLSI = microprocessor : special systemsSoftware : Hardware

MSP

MSP

MSP

M EM O R Y

MSP

MSP

MSP

MSP

M EM O R Y

MSP

MSP

MSP

MSP

M EM O R Y

C LO C KS,D EBU G

MSP

MSP

MSP

MSP

M EM O R YD R AMC O N TR O L

MSP

D R AM

PR O G I/O PR O G I/O PR

OG

I/O

PR

OG

I/O

PR

OG

I/O

PROG I/OPROG I/OPROG I/OPROG I/O

PR

OG

I/OP

RO

G I/O

PR

OG

I/O

N VM EM

UMS Architecture

Memory bandwidth scales with processing Scalable processing, software, I/O Each app runs on its own pool of processors Enables durable, portable intellectual property


Free 32 bit processor core

Linus’s Law: Linux everywhere

Software is or should be free All source code is “open” Everyone is a tester Everything proceeds a lot faster when

everyone works on one code Anyone can support and market the code for

any price Zero cost software attracts users! All the developers write lots of code


ISTORE Hardware Vision

System-on-a-chip enables computer, memory, without significantly increasing size of disk

5-7 year target:MicroDrive:1.7” x 1.4” x 0.2”

2006: ?1999: 340 MB, 5400 RPM,

5 MB/s, 15 ms seek2006: 9 GB, 50 MB/s ? (1.6X/yr capacity, 1.4X/yr BW)

Integrated IRAM processor2x height

Connected via crossbar switchgrowing like Moore’s law

16 Mbytes; ; 1.6 Gflops; 6.4 Gops10,000+ nodes in one rack! 100/board = 1 TB; 0.16 Tf


The Disk Farm? or a System On a Card?

The 500GB disc cardAn array of discsCan be used as 100 discs 1 striped disc 50 FT discs ....etcLOTS of accesses/second of bandwidth

A few disks are replaced by 10s of Gbytes of RAM and a processor to run Apps!!

14"


Nanochip.com

8

Trends: promises NEMS (Nano Electro Mechanical Systems)(http://www.nanochip.com/) also Cornell, IBM, CMU,…

• 250 Gbpsi by using tunneling electronic microscope

• Disk replacement

• Capacity: 180 GB now, 1.4 TB in 2 years

• Transfer rate: 100 MB/sec R&W

• Latency: 0.5msec

• Power: 23W active, .05W Standby

• 10k$/TB now, 2k$/TB in 2002

Disk vs TapeAt 10K$/TB disks are competitive with nearline tape.

Disk– 40 GB– 20 MBps– 5 ms seek time– 3 ms rotate latency– 7$/GB for drive

3$/GB for ctlrs/cabinet– 4 TB/rack

– 1 hour scan

Tape– 40 GB– 10 MBps– 10 sec pick time– 30-120 second seek time– 2$/GB for media

8$/GB for drive+library– 10 TB/rack

– 1 week scan

The price advantage of tape is narrowing, and the performance advantage of disk is growing

GuestimatesCern: 200 TB3480 tapes2 col = 50GBRack = 1 TB=20 drives

1988 Federal Plan for Internet

Telnet & FTP

EMAIL

WWW Audio Video

Voice!Voice!

StandardsStandards

Increase Capacity(circuits & bw)

Lower response time

Create newservice

Increased Demand

The virtuous cycle of bandwidth supply and demand


744Mbps over 5000 km to transmit 14 GB

~ 4e15 bit meters per second

4 Peta Bmps (“peta bumps”)Single Stream tcp/ip throughput

Information Sciences InstituteMicrosoft

QWestUniversity of Washington

Pacific Northwest GigapopHSCC (high speed connectivity

consortium)DARPA


Map of Gray Bell Prize resultsRedmond/Seattle, WA

San Francisco, CA

New York

Arlington, VA

5626 km10 hops

single-thread single-stream tcp/ip single-thread single-stream tcp/ip via 7 hopsvia 7 hops desktop-to-desktop …Win 2K desktop-to-desktop …Win 2K

out of the box performance*out of the box performance*


1 GBps1 GBps

Ubiquitous 10 GBps SANs in 5 years

1Gbps Ethernet are reality now.– Also FiberChannel ,MyriNet, GigaNet,

ServerNet,, ATM,…

10 Gbps x4 WDM deployed now (OC192)

– 3 Tbps WDM working in lab In 5 years, expect 10x,

wow!!

5 MBps20 MBps

40 MBps

80 MBps

120 MBps120 MBps(1Gbps)(1Gbps)


0

50

100

150

200

250

100Mbps Gbps SAN

Transmitreceivercpusender cpu

Time µs toSend 1KB

The Promise of SAN/VIA:10x in 2 years http://www.ViArch.org/

Yesterday: – 10 MBps (100 Mbps Ethernet)

– ~20 MBps tcp/ip saturates 2 cpus

– round-trip latency ~250 µs

Now– Wires are 10x faster

Myrinet, Gbps Ethernet, ServerNet,…

– Fast user-level communication

- tcp/ip ~ 100 MBps 10% cpu- round-trip latency is 15 us

1.6 Gbps demoed on a WAN

http://www.viarch.org/




Modern scalable switches … also hide a supercomputer

Scale from <1 to 120 Tbps 1 Gbps ethernet switches scale to

10s of Gbps, scaling upward SP2 scales from 1.2


Where are the challenges?

Continued development based on clusters… Scalar processors need to compete with vectors. The U.S. has cast its lot with COTS!

Explore radical alternatives. WWW is here. Now exploit it in every respect.

– Exploit OSS… though it may not be new!– Telepresence & interactive communities!!!– Grid as a prelude to:– Application Service Providers

- Prototype biologist and chemist workbenches- Labscape @ Cell laboratory, U. of WA- Sloan sky survey


Labscape1st, 2nd, 3rd, or New Paradigm for science?


Labscape


Labscape


Labscape sensors

Location tracking of people/samples– multiple resolutions – passive and active tags

Manual tasks (e.g., use of reagents, tools)

Audio/video records, vision and indexing Networked instruments (e.g., pipettes,

refrigerators, etc.)


What am I willing to predict? Processing & data can be anywhere…

– Maui… in winter. BW is the limiter!– Japan… if supers are so super else use PCs– In the disks– Application Service Providers: can we separate our data from

ourselves and businesses(ying-yang of personal versus central services)

The GRID e.g. biologist & chemist workbenches iff the IP doesn’t get in way

Collaboration ala astrophysics (high energy physics, math, earth sci. and any pure science if pure science continues!)

OSS is the big bang for supercomputing??


The End

BIO INTELLIGENCE AGET

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2000 BC2000 BC 00 2000 AD2000 AD190019001800180015001500

CONSUMER ACCEPTANCECONSUMER ACCEPTANCE

AGRICULTURALAGRICULTURAL

INDUSTRIALINDUSTRIAL

BIOINTELLIGENCEBIOINTELLIGENCE

INFORMATION INFORMATION

R. Satava 29 July 99

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