CoreLogic Residential Land Report - CoreLogic | …...RESIDENTIAL LOT SIZES LAND VALUE RANKING OF...

HIA–CoreLogic

Residential Land Report

RESIDENTIAL

LAND SALES

MEDIAN LOT

VALUES

REGIONAL

MARKETS

RESIDENTIAL

LOT SIZES

LAND

VALUE

RANKING OF MARKETS

March 2016 Quarter

A quarterly update on the sale of residential land

HIA–CoreLogic RESIDENTIAL LAND REPORT P2

MAR 2016 QUARTER

MODEST INCREASE IN LAND PRICES AS

capitals’ supply recovers

The March 2016 edition

of the HIA-CoreLogic

Residential Land Report

shows that vacant

residential land prices

saw modest growth

during the first quarter of

the year. This was

accompanied by

increased sales turnover

in the capital city

markets, although

regional areas

experienced a reduction

in transactions.

During the March 2016 quarter, the number of

vacant residential lot sales fell by 1.3 per cent

from the previous quarter, and were down by

some 13.0 per cent compared with the same

period 12 months earlier. This was accompanied

by an increase of 1.2 per cent in the median land

lot price over the quarter, with price growth

estimated at 5.9 per cent over the previous year.

Nationally, the median lot price hit yet another new

all-time high with the weighted median price

reaching $233,340 during the March 2016 quarter.

During the March 2016 quarter, it is estimated that

a total of 14,916 residential land lots were

transacted across Australia in the markets under

review, which is the lowest since the September

2012 quarter. Despite an increase of 3.4 per cent

during the March 2016 quarter, the volume of land

transactions across Australia’s capital cities is

down by 12.3 per cent compared with a year

earlier. In regional markets, the volume of land

transactions fell by some 14.0 per cent over the

same 12-month period. Land sales in capital cities

actually peaked at almost 13,300 during the final

quarter of 2013 and have since declined quite

steadily. Regional land sales peaked at just under

7,700 during the June 2014 quarter. Nationally,

land sales are well below the 24,000 peak reached

during the September 2009 quarter.

Median residential land values

For the March 2016 quarter, Australia’s weighted

median residential lot price is estimated at

$233,340. This represents an increase of 1.2 per

cent compared with previous quarter and is 5.9

per cent higher than the same period last year.

The gap between price growth in capital cities and

regional markets has narrowed a little. During the

March 2016 quarter, capital city median prices

reached $270,708 per lot, representing a 1.2 per

cent increase during the quarter. Over the year to

the March 2016 quarter, capital city prices saw

growth of 7.3 per cent.

Of the six capital cities covered in the Residential

Land Report, the highest median lot price was in

Sydney ($399,250) during the March 2016 quarter.

The median land lot price in Sydney fell for the

first time since the June 2014 quarter. In terms of

median lot price, Perth was in a distant second

place ($270,000), followed by Brisbane ($243,000)

in third and Melbourne ($235,000) just behind in

fourth place. Adelaide ($200,000) was fifth and

with Hobart comfortably remaining the least

expensive capital city residential land

market ($172,500) in terms of median price.

Across the capital cities, price growth

varied widely over the 12 months to March

2016 quarter. Price growth was strongest in

Hobart (+15.0 per cent), followed by

Sydney (+12.5 per cent) and Melbourne

(+9.3 per cent). Price growth has been

more measured in other cities, like

Brisbane (+5.7 per cent) and Perth (+0.7

per cent) over the same period. Adelaide

was the only one of the six capital cities

reviewed to see a reduction in residential

land prices over the 12 months to March

with a 2.9 per cent reduction occurring.

This was despite the fact that dwelling

prices continue to rise modestly in the city.

During the March 2016 quarter itself,

Hobart replaced Melbourne as the market

with the fastest growing residential land

prices as was also the case in the dwelling

price stakes. The median lot price

increased by some 19.0 per cent in Hobart

during the March 2016 quarter, although

this increase partly reflects compositional

changes in the sample. During the March

2016 quarter, land price increases also

occurred in Brisbane (+5.5 per cent),

Adelaide (+2.6 per cent), Melbourne (+2.2

per cent) and Perth (+0.4 per cent). The

median lot price declined only in Sydney

during the March 2016 quarter, with a 1.9

per cent reduction being recorded. In

regional markets, the median lot price was

estimated at $173,665 during the March

2016 quarter. Lot prices in regional

Australia rose by 1.3 per cent over the

quarter and were 2.4 per cent higher than

12 months earlier.

During the March 2016 quarter, the market

for residential land showed signs of

moderating with prices rising at a very

measured pace and transaction volumes

falling slightly. There are indications that

the supply conditions in capital city markets

are improving with turnover increasing for

the first time in almost a year. More

favourable supply conditions here may

have contributed to the deceleration of

price growth during the quarter.

This publication is produced

by HIA Economics based on

information available at the

time of publishing. All

opinions, conclusions or

recommendations are

reasonably held or made as

at the time of its

compilation, but no warranty

is made as to accuracy,

reliability or completeness.

Neither HIA nor any of its

subsidiaries accept liability to

any person for loss or

damage arising from the use

of this report.

Confidential Information: This

report is confidential to the

addressee. It may not be

copied or transmitted in whole

or in part in any form,

including by photocopying,

facsimile, scanning or by

manual or electronic means.

Multiple copies can be

supplied by arrangement/for

an additional charge.

Unauthorised copying is a

breach of HIA’s copyright and

may make you liable to pay

damages.


MAR 2016 QUARTER

Residential Land Sales

Turnover in the residential land market declined slightly during the first quarter of 2016. During the March 2016 quarter, total residential land lot sales fell by 1.3 per cent and were 13.0 per cent lower than the same period 12 months earlier. A total of 14,916 lot sales are estimated to have occurred during the quarter; 9,276 sales (representing 62.2 per cent of the total) in capital city markets and the remaining 5,640 sales (37.8 per cent) in regional markets. The past two years of a relatively healthy supply of new residential lots in capital city markets appears to finally be taking some pressure off prices. Land sales rose by 3.4 per cent across the six capitals analysed but were still some 12.3 per cent lower than a year earlier. Sales volumes in regional land markets has started to drop sharply, with sales easing by just 8.1 per cent during the quarter and some 14.0 per cent lower than a year earlier.

Over the year to March 2016, a total of 66,232 residential land lots are estimated to have been sold across Australia. Nationally, land sales have been falling since mid-2014 when turnover reached a peak. Compared with the June 2014 quarter, capital city land sales were 29.9 per cent lower during the March 2016 quarter. During the six months to the end of March 2016, the only capital cities to experience increased turnover compared with a year earlier were Hobart (+7.3 per cent) and Adelaide (+4.2 per cent). Land sales fell in four of the six capitals under review, including Brisbane (-7.7 per cent), Melbourne (-14.1 per cent), Perth (-14.8 per cent) and Sydney (-53.1 per cent). Regional land market turnover has been in decline for some time and is 26.2 per cent lower than its mid-2014 peak. During the six months to March, land sales increased most strongly in Northern NSW (+39.2 per cent), Gippsland (+37.1 per cent) and Central West NSW (+22.5 per cent). Over the same period, the biggest drops in land sales affected Northern SA (-71.3 per cent), South Eastern WA (-61.1 per cent) and Illawarra (-45.7 per cent).

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

170,000

180,000

190,000

200,000

210,000

220,000

230,000

240,000

Mar

-201

1

Jun-

2011

Sep

-201

1

Dec

-201

1

Mar

-201

2

Jun-

2012

Sep

-201

2

Dec

-201

2

Mar

-201

3

Jun-

2013

Sep

-201

3

Dec

-201

3

Mar

-201

4

Jun-

2014

Sep

-201

4

Dec

-201

4

Mar

-201

5

Jun-

2015

Sep

-201

5

Dec

-201

5

Mar

-201

6

$

No. of Sales Value (LHS)

RESIDENTIAL LAND SALES & MEDIAN LOT VALUE - AUSTRALIA

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MAR 2016 QUARTER

“

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

170,000

190,000

210,000

230,000

250,000

270,000

290,000

Mar

-201

1

Jun-

2011

Sep

-201

1

Dec

-201

1

Mar

-201

2

Jun-

2012

Sep

-201

2

Dec

-201

2

Mar

-201

3

Jun-

2013

Sep

-201

3

Dec

-201

3

Mar

-201

4

Jun-

2014

Sep

-201

4

Dec

-201

4

Mar

-201

5

Jun-

2015

Sep

-201

5

Dec

-201

5

Mar

-201

6

$

No. of Sales Value (LHS)

RESIDENTIAL LAND - CAPITAL CITIES

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Rank Region% change - 6 months to Mar

'16 on 6 mnths to Mar '15

1 Northern (SA) -71.3%

2 South Eastern (WA) -61.1%

3 Illawarra (NSW) -45.7%

4 Darling Downs (QLD) -44.7%

5 Northern (QLD) -40.6%

Rank Region% change - 6 months to Mar

'16 on 6 mnths to Mar '15

1 Northern (NSW) 39.2%

2 Gippsland (VIC) 37.1%

3 Central West (NSW) 22.5%

4 Gold Coast (QLD) 20.9%

5 Southern (TAS) 20.9%

5 WEAKEST MARKETS FOR LAND SALES

5 STRONGEST MARKETS FOR LAND SALES

Source: CoreLogic, HIA Economics


Land prices reach a new all-time high during the March 2016 quarter.

”


MAR 2016 QUARTER

Residential Land Values Another all-time high was reached by residential land prices during the March 2016 quarter. The weighted national median lot price increased by 1.2 per cent to $233,340 during the quarter. This represented an increase of 5.9 per cent on the same quarter 12 months earlier.

During the March 2016 quarter, land price growth in the capital cities continued to outpace that in regional markets although the margin has narrowed a little. Across the capital cities, lot prices increased by 1.2 per cent during the quarter and were 7.3 per cent higher over the year. In regional Australia, the median lot price grew by just 1.3 per cent during the March 2016 quarter and was 2.4 per cent higher than 12 months earlier. The gap between capital city and regional land prices remains substantial: during the March 2016 quarter, the median lot price in the capital cities was $270,708 compared with $173,665 in regional areas.

Of the six capital city markets covered in the report, all but one saw land prices increase during the March 2016 quarter. The median lot price increased by some 19.0 per cent in Hobart during the quarter, although this increase partly reflects compositional changes in the sample. During the March 2016 quarter, land price increases also occurred in Brisbane (+5.5 per cent), Adelaide (+2.6 per cent), Melbourne (+2.2 per cent) and Perth (+0.4 per cent). The median lot price declined only in Sydney during the March 2016 quarter, with a 1.9 per cent reduction being recorded.

Of the ten most expensive regional markets, five are located in NSW, two each are in Queensland and WA, with one in Victoria. WA’s Kimberley region was the most expensive regional land market during the March 2016 quarter at $305,000 per lot. NSW’s Richmond-Tweed area has the next most expensive median land price ($280,000) followed by Queensland’s Sunshine Coast ($260,930). The Kimberley and Sunshine Coast regions are unique in being the only regional land markets in the country that are more expensive than their corresponding capital cities.

During the March 2016 quarter, the Northern NSW market had the lowest land lot prices in the country with a median price of just $34,000. While the Northern region in NSW is typically amongst the least expensive in the state, a median price of $34,000 is not consistent with the market’s longer term average which has been on the vicinity of $120,000 in the preceding four quarters. The $34,000 figure is likely to be an aberration caused by the sale of a relatively large number of low cost lots in the area.

Land Values per Square Metre

Median lot prices do not take account of differences in the characteristics of the lots being traded, such as their size. This means that comparing median lot prices from different geographic markets or from different time periods can be misleading. This section provides a comparison on the basis of prices per square metre (sqm) which is more appropriate for tracking land values.

Land prices increased in per sqm terms during the March 2016 quarter in all capital cities apart from Sydney. The largest increase occurred in Hobart (+$26 per sqm), followed by Adelaide (+$21 per sqm) and Brisbane (+$14 per sqm). Smaller increases occurred in Perth and Melbourne with land prices increasing by just $4 per sqm in both cities over the quarter. Sydney was the only capital city to see prices decline in per sqm terms during the March 2016 quarter, with a fall of some $40 taking place. Nonetheless, land prices in per sqm terms are still the most expensive in Sydney ($842 per sqm), followed by Perth ($720 per sqm), Adelaide ($541 per sqm), Melbourne ($518 per sqm) and Brisbane ($509 per sqm). By a very considerable margin, Hobart remains the least expensive capital city land market at $245 per sqm.

The chart below provides an overview of developments in land prices in per sqm terms in the six capital cities over the past decade. Both Perth and Melbourne have seen land prices more than double over this period, up by 122.8 per cent and 111.5 per cent, respectively. Land values per

Rank Region Median Lot Price ($)

1 Kimberley (WA) 305,000

2 Richmond-Tweed (NSW) 280,000

3 Sunshine Coast (QLD) 260,930

4 Gold Coast (QLD) 229,800

5 Illawarra (NSW) 207,500

6 Hunter (NSW) 205,000

7 South West (WA) 194,000

8 Barwon (VIC) 192,000

9 Mid-North Coast (NSW) 190,000

10 South Eastern (NSW) 177,000

10 MOST EXPENSIVE REGIONAL MARKETS


Rank Region Median Lot Price ($)

1 Northern (NSW) 34,000

2 East Gippsland (VIC) 80,000

3 Northern (SA) 80,000

4 Yorke and Lower North (SA) 82,250

5 Southern (TAS) 83,000

6 South East (SA) 83,000

7 Murray Lands (SA) 85,000

8 Mersey-Lyell (TAS) 87,000

9 Eyre (SA) 98,000

10 Mallee (VIC) 98,000

10 LEAST EXPENSIVE REGIONAL MARKETS



MAR 2016 QUARTER

sqm have almost doubled in Adelaide, up by 92.1 per cent. Hobart prices have increased by 86.6 per cent per sqm over the past ten years, ahead of Brisbane (+76.4 per cent). In contrast to the other cities, Sydney land prices have seen the weakest growth over the past decade (+60.9 per cent). In the case of Sydney, a disproportionate share of this growth has occurred over very recent years.

In per sqm terms, land prices are very diverse in the regional land markets. These are shown in the tables below. During the March 2016 quarter, Queensland’s Gold Coast remained the most expensive market for land ($551 per sqm), followed by the Sunshine Coast to the north ($433 per sqm) and Kimberley in WA ($422 per sqm). The

Gold Cost is unique in being the only regional land market where land prices per sqm are higher than in its state capital. The Northern NSW is the regional market with the least expensive land ($53 per sqm), although this result is heavily influenced by the sale of a large number of low cost residential land lots in the region during the March 2016 quarter. The next least expensive regional land markets are in Tasmania’s Mersey-Lyell ($107 per sqm) and Southern Tasmania ($110 per sqm).

Capital city median lot size data can be found in Appendix C, and a full list of land values per square metre by geographical region can be found in Appendix D.

-$40

$4

$14

$21

$4

$26

-$50

-$40

-$30

-$20

-$10

$0

$10

$20

$30

Sydney Melbourne Brisbane Adelaide Perth HobartMar-16

QUARTERLY CHANGE IN RESIDENTIAL LAND VALUE PER SQUARE METRE - CAPTIAL CITIES

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MAR 2016 QUARTER

* In view of the lagged nature of residential land data provision, preliminary lot sale data is subject to upward revision in future quarterly updates. To mitigate against misrepresentation of actual lot sale data in the most recent quarter, HIA, in consultation with CoreLogic, have for some years now employed a rolling upward adjustment of the lot sale data based on historic revisions (at a Statistical Division level). Where the historic trend is a quarterly revision of less than 5 per cent, no data adjustment was employed. The most recent quarter of residential lot sale data is the only period to have received this adjustment.

$523

$245

$289 $282

$323

$131

$842

$518 $509$541

$720

$245

$0

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

$700

$800

$900

Sydney Melbourne Brisbane Adelaide Perth Hobart

Mar-06 Mar-16

RESIDENTIAL LAND VALUE (PRICE PER SQUARE METRE) - CAPITAL CITIES

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Most Expensive ($)

Gold Coast (QLD) 551

Sunshine Coast (QLD) 433

Kimberley (WA) 422

Richmond-Tweed (NSW) 408

Barwon (VIC) 377

Least Expensive ($)

Northern (NSW) 53

Mersey-Lyell (TAS) 107

Southern (TAS) 110

Yorke and Lower North (SA) 118

South East (SA) 118

Residential Land Value ($ per sqm) - Regional Australia



MAR 2016 QUARTER

Sydney

In the March 2016 quarter, residential land sales in Sydney fell by an estimated 5.9

per cent with 1,181 lots estimated to have been transacted during the quarter.

Turnover has fallen by some 42.3 per cent over the past year.

The median lot price in Sydney has declined for the first time since mid-2014.

During the March 2016 quarter, the median lot price was $399,250 which was 1.9

per cent lower than the previous quarter but still some 12.5 per cent higher than a

year earlier.

The continued fall in Sydney residential land turnover emphasises the need for

serious reform in terms of land release and the funding of new housing

infrastructure across the city if long term requirements are to be met.

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

Mar

-200

8

Jun-

2008

Sep

-200

8

Dec

-200

8

Mar

-200

9

Jun-

2009

Sep

-200

9

Dec

-200

9

Mar

-201

0

Jun-

2010

Sep

-201

0

Dec

-201

0

Mar

-201

1

Jun-

2011

Sep

-201

1

Dec

-201

1

Mar

-201

2

Jun-

2012

Sep

-201

2

Dec

-201

2

Mar

-201

3

Jun-

2013

Sep

-201

3

Dec

-201

3

Mar

-201

4

Jun-

2014

Sep

-201

4

Dec

-201

4

Mar

-201

5

Jun-

2015

Sep

-201

5

Dec

-201

5

Mar

-201

6

$

No. of sales Value (LHS)

RESIDENTIAL LAND SALES & MEDIAN LOT VALUE - SYDNEY

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MAR 2016 QUARTER

“

Regional New South Wales

34,000

113,500

132,500

145,000

164,000

177,000

190,000

205,000

207,500

280,000

399,250

0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 400,000 450,000

Northern

Murray

Murrumbidgee

North Western

Central West

South Eastern

Mid-North Coast

Hunter

Illawarra

Richmond-Tweed

Sydney

MEDIAN RESIDENTIAL LOT VALUE

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-53%

-46%

-32%

-23%

-22%

-20%

-11%

-9%

17%

22%

39%

-60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60%

Sydney

Illawarra

Murray

Richmond-Tweed

Mid-North Coast

South Eastern

North Western

Hunter

Murrumbidgee

Central West

Northern

RESIDENTIAL LOT SALES - ANNUAL % CHANGE - 6 MTHS TO MAR 2016

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Residential land sales across regional New South Wales are estimated to have totalled 1,393 in the March 2016 quarter, a level that is some 20.9 per cent lower than in the previous quarter, and 19.4 per cent lower than a year earlier.

During the six months to March 2016, all but three of NSW’s ten regional land markets saw reductions in turnover compared with the same period a year earlier.

The only regions to record an annual increase in sales during the six months to March 2016 were the Northern NSW (+39.2 per cent), Central West (+22.5 per cent) and Murrumbidgee (+16.9 per cent) regions.

Price developments in NSW’s regional residential land markets have been mixed. In annual terms, prices fell in six of the state’s ten regional markets: Northern NSW (-69.6 per cent); Illawarra (-7.3 per cent); North Western NSW (-3.3 per cent); Murray (-2.2 per cent); Mid-North Coast (-1.6 per cent); and the Hunter region (-0.5 per cent). The remarkably large fall registered in Northern NSW needs to be interpreted with caution as it is likely due to one-off sampling effects.

Over the same period, the median lot price rose in Murrumbidgee (+10.4 per cent), Richmond-Tweed (+7.7 per cent), South Eastern NSW (+7.3 per cent) and the Central West region (+5.8 per cent).

Seven of NSW’s ten regional land markets saw reductions in turnover.

”


MAR 2016 QUARTER

Melbourne

The volume of residential land sales in Melbourne rose by an estimated 5.2 per cent

in the in the March 2016 quarter with 3,241 lots estimated to have been transacted.

This was still 6.0 per cent lower than the number of sales estimated to have

occurred a year earlier.

The volume of residential land turnover in the Melbourne market has been trending

downwards since mid-2014 and has more than halved since reaching a record high

in 2009.

Land prices continued to rise in Melbourne, with the median lot price rising by 2.2

per cent to $235,000 during the March 2016 quarter. This was 9.3 per cent higher

than a year earlier and represents a new all-time high. The increase in land prices is

matched by strong growth in the median price of established dwellings.

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

180,000

200,000

220,000

240,000

260,000

Mar

-200

8

Jun-

2008

Sep

-200

8

Dec

-200

8

Mar

-200

9

Jun-

2009

Sep

-200

9

Dec

-200

9

Mar

-201

0

Jun-

2010

Sep

-201

0

Dec

-201

0

Mar

-201

1

Jun-

2011

Sep

-201

1

Dec

-201

1

Mar

-201

2

Jun-

2012

Sep

-201

2

Dec

-201

2

Mar

-201

3

Jun-

2013

Sep

-201

3

Dec

-201

3

Mar

-201

4

Jun-

2014

Sep

-201

4

Dec

-201

4

Mar

-201

5

Jun-

2015

Sep

-201

5

Dec

-201

5

Mar

-201

6

$


RESIDENTIAL LAND SALES & MEDIAN LOT VALUE - MELBOURNE

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MAR 2016 QUARTER

“ “ “

Regional Victoria

80,000

98,000

120,500

129,500

135,850

136,000

145,000

147,500

192,000

235,000

0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000

East Gippsland

Mallee

Goulburn

Ovens-Murray

Loddon

Central Highlands

Western District

Gippsland

Barwon

Melbourne

MEDIAN RESIDENTIAL LOT VALUEMEDIAN RESIDENTIAL LOT VALUEMEDIAN RESIDENTIAL LOT VALUE

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-33%

-24%

-24%

-22%

-14%

-2%

0%

11%

12%

37%

-40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

Mallee

Ovens-Murray

Loddon

Central Highlands

Melbourne

Goulburn

Barwon

Western District

East Gippsland

Gippsland

RESIDENTIAL LOT SALES - ANNUAL % CHANGE - 6 MTHS TO SEP RESIDENTIAL LOT SALES - ANNUAL % CHANGE - 6 MTHS TO MAR 2016

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Aggregate residential lot sales in regional Victoria increased by an estimated 3.8 per cent in the March 2016 quarter, although the volumes of transactions was slightly down (-0.9 per cent) on a year earlier.

During the six months to March 2016, four of the nine of the regional markets surveyed experienced increased sales volumes compared with a year earlier.

Over this period, land market turnover increased in Gippsland (+37.1 per cent), East Gippsland (+11.8 per cent), the Western District (+11.4 per cent) and Barwon (+0.4 per cent).

Of the five regions to experience reduced land sales, the largest falls were in Mallee (-33.1 per cent), Ovens-Murray (-24.2 per cent), Loddon (-24.1 per cent) and Central Highlands (-22.2 per cent).

During the March 2016 quarter, land prices were higher in all but one of the regional markets of Victoria compared with a year earlier.

Only East Gippsland experienced a decline in the median lot price over the year to March 2016, with a 5.9 per cent decline taking the price to $80,000.

Annual land price growth was strongest in Gippsland (+13.5 per cent), the Western District (+10.5 per cent), Ovens-Murray (+8.4 per cent) and Mallee (+5.4 per cent).

Land prices were higher in all but one of Victoria’s regional markets.

”


MAR 2016 QUARTER

Brisbane

Residential lot sales in Brisbane declined by an estimated 3.4 per cent in the March

2016 quarter to reach a level that is 10.6 per cent lower than the March 2015

quarter.

The 1,574 lots sold during the March 2016 quarter is some 23 per cent lower than

the peak in sales activity estimated to have been reached during the September

2015 quarter.

Brisbane’s median lot price increased by 5.5 per cent to $243,000 during the March

2016 quarter, and was 5.7 per cent higher than a year earlier.

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

Mar

-200

8

Jun-

2008

Sep

-200

8

Dec

-200

8

Mar

-200

9

Jun-

2009

Sep

-200

9

Dec

-200

9

Mar

-201

0

Jun-

2010

Sep

-201

0

Dec

-201

0

Mar

-201

1

Jun-

2011

Sep

-201

1

Dec

-201

1

Mar

-201

2

Jun-

2012

Sep

-201

2

Dec

-201

2

Mar

-201

3

Jun-

2013

Sep

-201

3

Dec

-201

3

Mar

-201

4

Jun-

2014

Sep

-201

4

Dec

-201

4

Mar

-201

5

Jun-

2015

Sep

-201

5

Dec

-201

5

Mar

-201

6

$


RESIDENTIAL LAND SALES & MEDIAN LOT VALUE - BRISBANE

Sou

rce:

Cor

eLog

ic,

HIA

Eco

nom

ics


MAR 2016 QUARTER

“

Regional Queensland

137,500

138,000

162,500

163,000

166,500

174,500

175,000

229,800

243,000

260,930

0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000

Wide Bay-Burnett

West Moreton

Mackay

Northern

Fitzroy

Darling Downs

Far North

Gold Coast

Brisbane

Sunshine Coast

MEDIAN RESIDENTIAL LOT VALUEMEDIAN RESIDENTIAL LOT VALUE

Sou

rce:

Cor

eLog

ic,

HIA

Eco

nom

ics

-45%

-41%

-36%

-35%

-22%

-8%

0%

7%

14%

21%

-50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30%

Darling Downs

Northern

Sunshine Coast

Fitzroy

Far North

Brisbane

West Moreton

Mackay

Wide Bay

Gold Coast


Sou

rce:

Cor

eLog

ic,

HIA

Eco

nom

ics

Residential land sales across regional Queensland are estimated to have totalled 1,604 in the March 2016 quarter, a level that is 9.0 per cent lower than in the previous quarter and some 22.1 per cent lower than in the March 2015 quarter.

During the six months to March 2016 quarter, the volume of lot sales fell in five of Queensland’s nine regional markets compared with the same period a year earlier.

The lot sales increased in three Queensland regions: Gold Coast (+20.9 per cent), Wide Bay (+13.9 per cent) and Mackay (+7.5 per cent). Lot sales were unchanged in West Moreton over the same period.

The largest declines in lot sales during the six months to March 2016 affected Darling Downs (-44.7 per cent), Northern Queensland (-40.6 per cent), the Sunshine Coast (35.5 per cent) and Fitzroy (-35.2 per cent).

Price developments in Queensland’s regional residential land markets are very mixed. Compared with a year earlier, the median lot price fell in in five of the state’s nine regional markets during the March 2016 quarter. The largest decline was in Mackay (-12.2 per cent), with the biggest price increase occurring in Northern Queensland (+4.2 per cent) over the same period.

The median lot price fell in in five of the state’s nine regional markets. ”


MAR 2016 QUARTER

Adelaide

During the March 2016 quarter, land sales declined by 8.3 per cent compared with

the previous quarter, involving the transaction of 960 lots. This is some 9.9 per cent

higher than year earlier.

Since first breaking through the $200,000 level in mid-2014 the median lot price in

Adelaide has remained within a fairly tight band around this threshold. During the

March 2016 quarter, the median lot price in Adelaide rose by 2.6 per cent to

$200,000. However, this is 2.9 per cent lower than a year earlier. Adelaide is the

second cheapest capital city market for residential lots in Australia after Hobart.

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

Mar

-200

8

Jun-

2008

Sep

-200

8

Dec

-200

8

Mar

-200

9

Jun-

2009

Sep

-200

9

Dec

-200

9

Mar

-201

0

Jun-

2010

Sep

-201

0

Dec

-201

0

Mar

-201

1

Jun-

2011

Sep

-201

1

Dec

-201

1

Mar

-201

2

Jun-

2012

Sep

-201

2

Dec

-201

2

Mar

-201

3

Jun-

2013

Sep

-201

3

Dec

-201

3

Mar

-201

4

Jun-

2014

Sep

-201

4

Dec

-201

4

Mar

-201

5

Jun-

2015

Sep

-201

5

Dec

-201

5

Mar

-201

6

$


RESIDENTIAL LAND SALES & MEDIAN LOT VALUE - ADELAIDE

Sou

rce:

Cor

eLog

ic,

HIA

Eco

nom

ics


MAR 2016 QUARTER

“ “

Regional South Australia

80,000

82,250

83,000

85,000

98,000

148,000

200,000

0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000

Northern

Yorke and Lower North

South East

Murray Lands

Eyre

Outer Adelaide

Adelaide


Sou

rce:

Cor

eLog

ic,

HIA

Eco

nom

ics

-71%

-22%

-15%

-10%

4%

7%

11%

-80% -70% -60% -50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20%

Northern

Murray Lands

Eyre

Yorke and Lower North

Adelaide

South East

Outer Adelaide


Sou

rce:

Cor

eLog

ic,

HIA

Eco

nom

ics

Land market turnover in regional SA fell back during the March 2016 quarter. An estimated 382 lots were transacted, 5.8 per cent less than in the previous quarter. The volume of sales was 9.4 per cent lower than the same period a year earlier.

During the six months to March 2016, only two of SA’s six regional markets saw turnover at a higher level than 12 months previously. The strongest growth was in Outer Adelaide (+10.8 per cent) with transaction volumes also increasing in South East SA over the same period (+6.8 per cent).

Over the six months to March 2016, by far the largest annual decline in land market turnover affected Northern SA (-71.3 per cent). Substantial reductions in turnover also affected the Murray Lands (-22.3 per cent), Eyre (-14.6 per cent) and Yorke & Lower North regions (-10.4 per cent).

Three of SA’s six regional land markets experienced growth in median lot price during the March 2016 quarter compared with a year earlier. The largest price increase occurred in the Eyre region (+21.7 per cent), followed by the Murray Lands (+6.3 per cent) and Outer Adelaide (+2.1 per cent). Median dwelling prices declined in Northern SA (-18.4 per cent), Yorke & Lower North (-8.4 per cent) and South East SA (-7.8 per cent).

Land market turnover in regional SA fell back during the March 2016 quarter.

”


MAR 2016 QUARTER

Perth

After enduring a sustained trend decline in lot sales since mid-2013, lot sales in

Perth recorded the first material increase in three years. In the March 2016 quarter

there were a total of 2,220 lots sold in Perth.

The median lot price was essentially unchanged during the March 2016 quarter,

rising by only 0.4 per cent to $270,000. While the price was steady, it remained at a

record high level for Perth. In the context of the declines in the median price of

established homes in Perth over the last year, it is surprising to see vacant lot prices

resist the downward market pressure. Furthermore, while the median lot price was

steady the median lot size continued to decline measuring only 375 square meters

in the March quarter. Therefore, the land price on a per square metre basis has

actually increased during the quarter reaching a record high of $720 per square

metre. This makes Perth the most expensive capital city land market after Sydney.

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

Mar

-200

8

Jun-

2008

Sep

-200

8

Dec

-200

8

Mar

-200

9

Jun-

2009

Sep

-200

9

Dec

-200

9

Mar

-201

0

Jun-

2010

Sep

-201

0

Dec

-201

0

Mar

-201

1

Jun-

2011

Sep

-201

1

Dec

-201

1

Mar

-201

2

Jun-

2012

Sep

-201

2

Dec

-201

2

Mar

-201

3

Jun-

2013

Sep

-201

3

Dec

-201

3

Mar

-201

4

Jun-

2014

Sep

-201

4

Dec

-201

4

Mar

-201

5

Jun-

2015

Sep

-201

5

Dec

-201

5

Mar

-201

6

$


RESIDENTIAL LAND SALES & MEDIAN LOT VALUE - PERTH

Sou

rce:

Cor

eLog

ic,

HIA

Eco

nom

ics


MAR 2016 QUARTER

“

Regional Western Australia

134,000

145,000

194,000

270,000

305,000

0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000

Central

South Eastern

South West

Perth

Kimberley


Sou

rce:

Cor

eLog

ic,

HIA

Eco

nom

ics

-61%

-19%

-19%

-15%

20%

-70% -60% -50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30%

South Eastern

South West

Central

Perth

Kimberley


Sou

rce:

Cor

eLog

ic,

HIA

Eco

nom

ics

The four regional markets of Western Australia covered within the Residential Land Report all show weak numbers for lot sales. Lot sales in the six months to March 2016 were lower than the corresponding period a year earlier in the South West region (-18.8 per cent), the South Eastern region (61.1 per cent), and the Central region (-18.6 per cent).

The Kimberley region was the only regional market in WA where there were more lot sales in the six months to March 2016 than there were a year earlier (+20.4 per cent). However, with a total of only 36 lot sales in the last six months this highlights the sustained run of weak sales in the region. While the market in the Pilbara region (not covered by this report) was influenced the most by the mining boom through the key mining towns of Karratha and Port Hedland, the Kimberley region’s proximity to the boom meant it too went along for the ride. Despite the downturn in mining related investment over the last couple of years, prices indicate the Kimberley region remains amongst the most expensive non-capital city markets in the country. On a price per square metre basis, the Kimberley ranks as the third most expensive non-capital city market in the country behind only the Gold Coast and Sunshine Coast regions in Queensland.

Elsewhere in WA’s other regional markets, price growth was minimal in the quarter. Over the March 2016 quarter, the median lot price increased by 2.1 per cent in the South West region and by 1.5 per cent in the Central region, while the median lot price was unchanged in the South Eastern Region.

The Kimberley region remains amongst the most expensive non-capital city markets in the country

”


MAR 2016 QUARTER

Hobart

The number of new residential lots sold in Hobart dropped in the March quarter of

2016. The 28.4 per cent decline in the quarter is likely to be influenced by a pull

forward in activity as buyers pre-empted the reduction in the state’s first home buyer

grant from $20,000 to $10,000 which took effect at the beginning of January.

However, in May the state’s treasurer announced the grant would return to $20,000

and would be backdated to the beginning of the year.

The price of residential lots jumped by 19.0 per cent in the March 2016 quarter,

reaching a record high of $172,500. It is likely that this large jump partially reflects a

change in the composition of the market in the quarter, as we also saw a significant

jump in the median size of lots sold in Hobart, which increased from 660 square

metres to 703 square metres. This scenario is consistent with a reduction in the

number of first home buyers in the market. First home buyers are typically more

active in the market for affordable lots which tend to be smaller in size. The reduced

number of first home buyers in the market left a greater concentration of higher

value transactions which has pushed up the median lot price in the quarter.

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

180,000

200,000

Mar

-200

8

Jun-

2008

Sep

-200

8

Dec

-200

8

Mar

-200

9

Jun-

2009

Sep

-200

9

Dec

-200

9

Mar

-201

0

Jun-

2010

Sep

-201

0

Dec

-201

0

Mar

-201

1

Jun-

2011

Sep

-201

1

Dec

-201

1

Mar

-201

2

Jun-

2012

Sep

-201

2

Dec

-201

2

Mar

-201

3

Jun-

2013

Sep

-201

3

Dec

-201

3

Mar

-201

4

Jun-

2014

Sep

-201

4

Dec

-201

4

Mar

-201

5

Jun-

2015

Sep

-201

5

Dec

-201

5

Mar

-201

6

$


RESIDENTIAL LAND SALES & MEDIAN LOT VALUE - GREATER HOBART

Sou

rce:

Cor

eLog

ic,

HIA

Eco

nom

ics


MAR 2016 QUARTER

“

Regional Tasmania

83,000

87,000

122,500

172,500

0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 160,000 180,000 200,000

Southern

Mersey-Lyell

Northern

Greater Hobart


Sou

rce:

Cor

eLog

ic,

HIA

Eco

nom

ics

-4%

-3%

7%

21%

-10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%

Mersey-Lyell

Northern

Greater Hobart

Southern


Sou

rce:

Cor

eLog

ic,

HIA

Eco

nom

ics

In aggregate, the number of lot sales in regional Tasmania rose during the March 2016 quarter, with increases observed in the Southern and Mersey-Lyle regions but falling in the state’s Northern region. The Southern region posted a particularly strong quarter, where the 49 lots sold represents the highest number of sales since the March quarter of 2010.

All of Tasmania’s regional residential land markets remain amongst the least expensive nationally; with a median price of $83,000, the Southern region ranks as the least expensive region in the state narrowly ahead of the Mersey-Lyle region with a median lot price of $87,000. The median lot price in the Northern region was higher at $122,500 in the March 2016 quarter.

The Southern region ranks

as the least expensive

region in Tasmania

”


MAR 2016 QUARTER

Conclusion

Price pressures in Australia’s residential land market showed signs of

easing during the March 2016 quarter, with prices just 1.2 per cent

higher than the previous quarter but still up by 5.9 per cent compared

with a year earlier. The deceleration of price growth during the first

quarter of 2016 was helped by the fact that capital city markets saw

relatively favourable supply conditions for the two years between mid-

2013 and mid-2015. Supply appears to have tailed off over the last three

quarters although there was a modest 3.4 per cent lift in sales in the

March 2016 quarter. Regional markets have followed a fairly similar

trajectory over the last couple of years but recorded a sharp fall in

transactions of 8.1 per cent during the March 2016 quarter.

Despite the moderation of land price growth, actual price levels reached

a new all-time high during the quarter with the median land lot price

rising to $233,340. In the wider scheme of things, the release of new

land supply remains challenging with vacant residential land turnover

down by almost 40 per cent since 2009. It is only through deep-rooted

reform to land supply policies that these difficulties will be overcome and

that housing affordability can be improved.

.


MAR 2016 QUARTER

Appendix A

Quarter Sydney Melbourne Brisbane Adelaide Perth Hobart Weighted Median

Mar Qtr 11 267,000 210,000 210,000 185,000 240,500 135,000 215,672

Jun Qtr 11 265,000 213,600 201,000 177,500 233,000 128,000 213,348

Sep Qtr 11 272,500 212,000 212,250 158,000 235,000 140,000 213,894

Dec Qtr 11 276,250 210,000 215,000 184,000 230,000 127,500 215,847

Mar Qtr 12 268,500 213,200 215,000 175,000 240,000 125,000 217,665

Jun Qtr 12 263,500 207,900 209,000 170,000 234,250 140,000 213,148

Sep Qtr 12 270,000 211,000 210,000 173,500 235,000 132,000 216,242

Dec Qtr 12 275,000 212,000 209,200 174,500 235,000 120,000 217,745

Mar Qtr 13 282,500 211,000 210,000 174,000 235,000 124,000 219,033

Jun Qtr 13 284,000 209,250 203,000 172,000 237,000 132,000 218,698

Sep Qtr 13 293,750 208,000 212,900 180,000 239,000 137,500 222,863

Dec Qtr 13 299,000 209,995 215,900 193,500 248,805 120,000 229,053

Mar Qtr 14 305,000 210,000 215,000 187,500 253,000 125,000 230,981

Jun Qtr 14 304,950 210,000 219,900 185,000 255,500 125,000 232,942

Sep Qtr 14 323,125 210,000 218,000 203,000 255,000 130,000 237,935

Dec Qtr 14 335,500 209,000 219,000 192,500 265,500 115,000 242,244

Mar Qtr 15 355,000 215,000 230,000 206,000 268,000 150,000 252,281

June Qtr 15 363,500 217,500 226,500 195,000 260,000 125,000 251,760

Sep Qtr 15 386,500 218,000 235,000 200,000 260,000 145,000 258,567

Dec Qtr 15 406,875 229,950 230,250 195,000 269,000 145,000 267,567

Mar Qtr 16 399,250 235,000 243,000 200,000 270,000 172,500 270,708

% Change

previous quarter -1.9% 2.2% 5.5% 2.6% 0.4% 19.0% 1.2%

previous year 12.5% 9.3% 5.7% -2.9% 0.7% 15.0% 7.3%

Median Lot Value ($)



MAR 2016 QUARTER

Appendix B

STATE REGIONS STATE REGIONSNSW Sydney SA Adelaide

Central West Eyre

Hunter Murray Lands

Illawarra Northern

Mid-North Coast Outer Adelaide

Murray South East

Murrumbidgee Yorke and Lower North

North Western

Northern WA Perth

Richmond-Tweed Central

South Eastern Kimberley

South Eastern

VIC Melbourne South West

Barwon

Central Highlands TAS Greater Hobart

East Gippsland Mersey-Lyell

Gippsland Northern

Goulburn Southern

Loddon

Mallee

Ovens-Murray

Western District

QLD Brisbane

Darling Downs

Far North

Fitzroy

Gold Coast

Mackay

Northern

Sunshine Coast

West Moreton

Wide Bay-Burnett*Some regions have not been included in the analysis due to a high level of volatility in the time series. These regions are: Far West in New South Wales;

Wimmera in Victoria; Central West, North West and South West in Queensland; Lower Great Southern, Midlands, Pilbara and Upper Great Southern in Western

Australia


MAR 2016 QUARTER

Appendix C

474454

477

370 375

703

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

Sydney Melbourne Brisbane Adelaide Perth Hobart

Sq

ua

re M

etr

es

Sou

rce:

HIA

Eco

nom

ics,

Cor

eLog

ic, A

BS

MEDIAN LOT SIZE - CAPITAL CITIES, MARCH 2016 QUARTER

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

750

800

Mar

-01

Mar

-02

Mar

-03

Mar

-04

Mar

-05

Mar

-06

Mar

-07

Mar

-08

Mar

-09

Mar

-10

Mar

-11

Mar

-12

Mar

-13

Mar

-14

Mar

-15

Mar

-16

Squ

are

met

res

Sydney Melbourne Brisbane Adelaide Perth Greater Hobart

MEDIAN LOT SIZESSource: CoreLogic, HIA Economics

Sydney

Perth

Adelaide

Melbourne

Brisbane

Hobart


MAR 2016 QUARTER

Appendix D

New South Wales Land Value p/sqm Queensland Land Value p/sqm

Northern (NSW) 53 West Moreton (QLD) 176

Murray (NSW) 161 Wide Bay-Burnett (QLD) 178

Murrumbidgee (NSW) 172 Fitzroy (QLD) 235

North Western (NSW) 195 Mackay (QLD) 246

Central West (NSW) 205 Far North (QLD) 249

South Eastern (NSW) 271 Northern (QLD) 269

Mid-North Coast (NSW) 288 Darling Downs (QLD) 277

Illawarra (NSW) 322 Sunshine Coast (QLD) 433

Hunter (NSW) 329 Brisbane (QLD) 509

Richmond-Tweed (NSW) 408 Gold Coast (QLD) 551

Sydney (NSW) 842

Victoria Land Value p/sqm South Australia Land Value p/sqm

East Gippsland (VIC) 119 Yorke and Lower North (SA) 118

Mallee (VIC) 155 South East (SA) 118

Goulburn (VIC) 172 Murray Lands (SA) 122

Ovens-Murray (VIC) 187 Northern (SA) 127

Loddon (VIC) 212 Eyre (SA) 132

Gippsland (VIC) 215 Outer Adelaide (SA) 238

Western District (VIC) 218 Adelaide (SA) 541

Central Highlands (VIC) 244

Barwon (VIC) 377 Tasmania Land Value p/sqm

Melbourne (VIC) 518 Mersey-Lyell (TAS) 107

Southern (TAS) 110

Western Australia Land Value p/sqm Northern (TAS) 163

Central (WA) 187 Greater Hobart (TAS) 245

South Eastern (WA) 189

South West (WA) 366

Kimberley (WA) 422

Perth (WA) 720

RESIDENTIAL LAND VALUE (PER SQM) BY REGION



MAR 2016 QUARTER

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