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Corine land cover, Land accounts and scenario development
An introduction
Jean-Louis Weber & Ferràn Paramo
26 February 2003
Why accounting for Land?
• Produce synthetic assessments, keeping track of the geographic differences
• Analyse the relation between the changes of land cover and land use, in physical and monetary terms
and contribute to the development of scenarios…
First, avoiding this…
Net intensification of land use by Sea Catchments
Net intensification of land use by Country
Net intensification of land use by Biogeographic regions Net intensification of land use by Watershed
and this…
Changes in Tourism intensity, 1980-85 to 1990-95, by NUTS2
The concept of stock & flow accounts
Stock at
Time 1
Stock at
Time 2
Do gains compensate for losses? Do gains compensate for losses?
Stock at
Time 1
Stock at
Time 2
Do gains compensate for losses? Do gains compensate for losses?
Which are the processes in question?
Does quality of stock carried over change?
Gains
Losses
The aggregation issue
• From many land cover units to regions & to landscape types
• From many land cover changes to flows of consumption of cover and formation of cover
From many land cover units to regions & to landscape types
CLC 1990
Landscape Types of Europe used for LEAC
wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww
Landscape Types of the « 4 countries » used for LEAC, dominant character
Landscape Types of the « 4 countries » used for LEAC, Upland vs Lowland
Dominant landscape type of the European coast
Dominant landscape type of the European coast
8%
12%
11%
21%7%
21%
20%
Urban dense areas
Dirspersed urban areas
Broad pattern intensive agriculture
Composite rural landscape
Forested landscape
Open semi-natural or natural landscape
Landscape with no dominance
Land Accounting Units/ Coastal Units
Land Accounting Units/ Coastal Units
Land Accounting Units/ Coastal Units
From many land cover changes to flows of consumption of cover and formation of cover
CORRESPONDANCE BETWEEN LAND COVER CHANGES (CLC LEVEL 3) AND THE LAND COVER FLOWS
132 133 141 142 211 212 213 221 222 223
Dump sites Construction
sites Green urban
areas
Sport and leisure
facilities
Non-irrigated arable land
Permanently irrigated land
Rice fields Vineyards Fruit trees and berry
plantations Olive groves
243 Land principally occupied by agriculture w ith significant areas of natural vegetation
Extension of dumpsites
ConstructionDevelopment of green urban areas
Extension of sport and leisure facilities
Intensive conversion of marginal land to agriculture
Intensive conversion of marginal land to agriculture
Intensive conversion of marginal land to agriculture
Intensive conversion of marginal land to agriculture
Intensive conversion of marginal land to agriculture
Intensive conversion of marginal land to agriculture
244 Agro-forestry areasExtension of dumpsites
ConstructionDevelopment of green urban areas
Extension of sport and leisure facilities
Intensif ication of agriculture
Intensif ication of agriculture
Intensif ication of agriculture
Planting of vineyards, fruit and olive trees over arable & pasture
Planting of vineyards, fruit and olive trees over arable & pasture
Planting of vineyards, fruit and olive trees over arable & pasture
311 Broad-leaved forestExtension of dumpsites
ConstructionDevelopment of green urban areas
Extension of sport and leisure facilities
Intensive conversion of forest to agriculture
Intensive conversion of forest to agriculture
Intensive conversion of forest to agriculture
Intensive conversion of forest to agriculture
Intensive conversion of forest to agriculture
Intensive conversion of forest to agriculture
312 Coniferous forestExtension of dumpsites
ConstructionDevelopment of green urban areas
Extension of sport and leisure facilities
Intensive conversion of forest to agriculture
Intensive conversion of forest to agriculture
Intensive conversion of forest to agriculture
Intensive conversion of forest to agriculture
Intensive conversion of forest to agriculture
Intensive conversion of forest to agriculture
313 Mixed forestExtension of dumpsites
ConstructionDevelopment of green urban areas
Extension of sport and leisure facilities
Intensive conversion of forest to agriculture
Intensive conversion of forest to agriculture
Intensive conversion of forest to agriculture
Intensive conversion of forest to agriculture
Intensive conversion of forest to agriculture
Intensive conversion of forest to agriculture
321 Natural grasslandExtension of dumpsites
ConstructionDevelopment of green urban areas
Extension of sport and leisure facilities
Intensive conversion of marginal land to agriculture
Intensive conversion of marginal land to agriculture
Intensive conversion of marginal land to agriculture
Intensive conversion of marginal land to agriculture
Intensive conversion of marginal land to agriculture
Intensive conversion of marginal land to agriculture
322 Moors and heathlandExtension of dumpsites
ConstructionDevelopment of green urban areas
Extension of sport and leisure facilities
Intensive conversion of marginal land to agriculture
Intensive conversion of marginal land to agriculture
Intensive conversion of marginal land to agriculture
Intensive conversion of marginal land to agriculture
Intensive conversion of marginal land to agriculture
Intensive conversion of marginal land to agriculture
Nomenclature of Land Cover Flows (Level 1)
LCF1 Urban land management
LCF2 Urban sprawl
LCF3 Extension of economic sites and infrastructures
LCF4 Agricultural rotation and intensification
LCF5 Conversion of land to agriculture
LCF6 Forests creation and management
LCF7 Water body creation and management
LCF8 Changes of land cover due to natural and multiple causes
Detailed Nomenclatures of Land Cover Flows 1/3
LCF1 Urban land managementLCF11 Urban development/ infillingLCF12 Developed land recyclingLCF13 Development of green urban areas
LCF2 Urban sprawlLCF21 Urban continuous sprawlLCF22 Urban diffuse sprawl
LCF3 Extension of economic sites and infrastructuresLCF31 Extension of industrial & commercial sitesLCF32 Extension of transport networksLCF33 Extension of harboursLCF34 Extension of airportsLCF35 Extension of mines and quarrying areasLCF36 Extension of dumpsitesLCF37 ConstructionLCF38 Extension of sport and leisure facilities
Detailed Nomenclatures of Land Cover Flows 2/3
• LCF4 Agricultural rotation and intensification
LCF41 Recent extension of pasture, fallow land, set aside
LCF42 Planting of vineyards, fruit and olive trees over arable & pasture
LCF43 Rotation of annual crops
LCF44 Rotation of permanent crops
LCF45 Intensification of agriculture
• LCF5 Conversion of land to agriculture
LCF51 Intensive conversion of forest to agriculture
LCF52 Intensive conversion of marginal land to agriculture
LCF53 Diffuse conversion of forest to agriculture
LCF54 Diffuse conversion of marginal land to agriculture
LCF55 Conversion of wetlands to agriculture
LCF56 Conversion of developed areas to agriculture
Detailed Nomenclatures of Land Cover Flows 3/3
LCF6 Forests creation and managementLCF61 Forests creationLCF62 Forests rotationLCF63 Recent felling and transition
LCF7 Water body creation and managementLCF71 Water body creationLCF72 Water body management
LCF8 Changes of land cover due to natural and multiple causes
LCF81 Semi-natural creation LCF82 Semi-natural rotation
LCF83 Farmland abandonment without significant woodland creation
LCF84 Farmland abandonment with woodland creationLCF85 Other land abandonment (other than farmland)LCF86 Forests and shrubs firesLCF87 Coastal erosionLCF88 Impacts of storms, floods…LCF89 Other changes and unknown
Example of basic LEAC
Land cover of the European coast, 1990
Coastal Land Cover 1990
Artif icial areas6%
Arable Land+Permanent
crops28%
Pasture + Heterogeneous
agricultural areas27%
Forests11%
Shrub and other natural & semi-natural areas
18%
Wetlands6%
Water4%
Urban extension compared to Farmland (Net Change), European coast, 1975-1990, hectares
Artif icial surfaces
Arable Land+Permanent CropsPasture+Mixed agricultural areas-80000
-60000
-40000
-20000
0
20000
40000
60000
Urban extension compared to Farmland (Net Change), European coast, 1975-1990, ha
Main land cover flows on European coast, 1975-1990 - hectares
Main land cover flows on European coast, 1975-1990 - ha
191860
103151
323569
160692
190425
415126
203852
121485
0 50000 100000 150000 200000 250000 300000 350000 400000 450000
Coastal erosion
Farmland abandonment
Recent extension of pasture, fallowland, set aside
Forests creation
Conversion of marginal land toagriculture
Intensification of agriculture
Planting of vineyards, fruit and olivetrees over arable & pasture
Urban sprawl+Extension of economicsites and infrastructures
Urban extension 1975-1990 on the European coast, hectares
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
90000
100000
Urban extension 1975-1990 on the European coast, ha
Urban continuous spraw l
Extension of economic sites and infrastructures
Urban diffuse spraw l
Extension & intensification of agriculture on the European coast, 1975-90, hectares
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
Extension & intensification of agriculture on European coast, 1975-90, ha
Planting of vineyards, fruit and olive trees overarable & pasture
Conversion of land to agriculture
Intensification of agriculture
Trends in marginal land on European coast,1975-1990, hectares
0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000
Urban dense areas
Dirspersed urban areas
Broad pattern intensive agriculture
Composite rural landscape
Forested landscape
Open semi-natural or naturallandscape
Landscape with no dominance
Trends in marginal land on European coast,1975-90, ha
Farmland abandonment Conversion of marginal land to agriculture
Examples of indicators calculated from Land Accounts, maps
(a) Urban sprawl + Extension of infrastructures
(b) Intensification of Agriculture + Conversion of land to Agriculture
(c) Farmland abandonment
(d) Net Intensification of Land Use = (a)+(b)- (c)
N.B. Indicators can be computed by Land Units, by Regions (NUTS, Basins) or/and by Landscape Types
(a) Urban sprawl + Extension of infrastructures, European coast, 1975-1990, NUTS3
(b) Intensification of Agriculture + Conversion of land to Agriculture,
European coast, 1975-1990, NUTS3
(c) Farmland abandonment, European coast, 1975-1990, NUTS3
+
- =
(d) Net Intensification of Land Use,
European coast, 1975-90, NUTS3
Possible scenario analysis based on CLC and LEAC
1. Overlay of CLC with existing land use scenario: CAP, TEN/TINA, Urban Polycentric development (ESPON/CRPM) … and calculate impact (e.g. with a buffer)
2. Overlay of CORILIS with the same and calculate impact on the potentials = no need of a buffer
3. Implement coefficients on CORILIS and assess the impacts on the transitions between classes (impacts by landscape types)
4. Assess zones at risk of… by physical modelling of geographic characteristics (e.g. farmland abandonment)
5. Combine « local » models with the LEAC infrastructure (Landscape types, Stock & Flow accounts), in order to have a basis for extrpolation.
e.g. Assessment of the strategic impact of the TEN by the
EEA
Fragmentation of regions which boundaries are existing major transport networks. Value based on the size weighted by land cover (CLC 3, 4 & 5) and by the presence of protected areas
Overlay of CLC with existing land use scenarios
Scenarios to be overlaid to
CLC or CORILIS
Methodology of assessment of the competitiveness/attractiveness of the peripheral regions
Current assessment
Scenario 1: « straight-line development »
Scenario 2: polycentric
development
Questions:
What about the environment?
Is one scenario better than the other?
Why? Which impacts?
Overlay of CORILIS with the same scenarios as before, and calculate
impact on the potentials = no need of a buffer, direct
calculations…
Intensity of land cover in and in the surroundings of Regional ParksTendances dans le voisinage (TdV)
VercorsQueyras
Luberon
Chartreuse
Armorique
Ballons des Vosges
Nord-Pas-de-Calais
Brenne
Brière
BrotonneMarais du Cotentin et du Bessin
Camargue
Corse
Foret d'Orient
Grands Causses
Haut-Jura
Haut-Languedoc
Haute vallée de la Chevreuse
Landes de Gascogne
Livradois-Forez
LorraineMontagne de Reims
Morvan
Normandie-Maine
PilatVolcans d'Auvergne
Vosges du NordVexin
Massif des Bauges
Loire-Anjou-Touraine
Verdon
Perche
Perigord-Limousin
AvesnoisScarpe-Escaut
SSoouurrccee :: UUEE –– IIffeenn // CCOORRIINNEE LLaanndd ccoovveerr vv..11 11999966 –– MMNNHHNN [[IIEEGGBB –– SSPPNN]] 11999988 -- LLiissssaaggee àà 2200 kkiilloommèèttrreess
Forêt
67 - 9150 - 6737 - 5025 - 37
Semi naturel
58 - 8932 - 5816 - 328 - 16
Artificiel
13 - 416 - 135 - 63 - 5
Grandes cultures
52 - 8439 - 5231 - 3926 - 31
Cultures diverses
69 - 9755 - 6944 - 5535 - 44
CORILIS
CORILIS
CORILIS
CORILIS
CORILIS
Landscape diversity indices based on CLC/CORILIS
Implement coefficients on CORILIS and assess the impacts on the transitions
between classes (impacts by landscape types)
Normalised index Mixed Agriculture/ Forests
Indice normaliséCult. variées / Forêt
0,8 - 10,6 - 0,80,4 - 0,60,2 - 0,40,1 - 0,20 - 0,1
-0,1 - 0-0,2 - -0,1-0,4 - -0,2-0,6 - -0,4-0,8 - -0,6-1 - -0,8
Assess zones at risk of… by physical modelling of
geographic characteristics (e.g. farmland abandonment)
Assessment of the risk of Farmland abandonment in Franche-Comté
The risk is high when:
CLC class is 243 & 244
+ Land close to a forest
+ Land is on a slope
+ Land far from a main road
Combine « local » models with the LEAC infrastructure (Landscape types, Stock &
Flow accounts), in order to have a basis for extrpolation.