Cornell Leadership on Sustainable

Global Poverty Reduction

Chris BarrettNovember 20, 2008

CALS Advisory CouncilIthaca, NY

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% o

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Extreme and Ultra Poverty, 1981-2004

World East Asia Sub-Saharan Africa

Bubble sizes reflect number of people living in extreme poverty (2005US$1.25/day-person) and ultra poverty ($0.54/day-person)

1.1 bn in East Asia in 1981, 0.3 bn in 2005

1.9 bn worldwide in 1981, 1.4 bn in 2005

0.2 bn in SSAfrica in 1981, 0.4 bn in 2005

Extreme poverty has fallen rapidly in east Asia and worldwide, except in Sub-Saharan Africa, where >50% still live on less than

$1.25/day.

Sources: IFPRI (2007), Chen and Ravallion (2008)

The promise

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1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2004

Middle East & North Africa

Europe & Central Asia

Latin America & the Caribbean

East Asia & Pacific

South Asia

Sub-Saharan Africa

48% African in 1990, 75% in 2004

Source: IFPRI (2007)

Ultra-poverty is especially persistent and prevalent in sub-Saharan Africa

Ultra-poor (income per capita< 2005US$0.54/day)

The challenge

Source: World Bank (2007)

Persistent poverty is closely tied to agricultural stagnation

A key driver

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Pov

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)Poverty (right axis)

Yields (left axis)

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Poverty (right axis)

Yields (left axis)

Cereal yields and extreme poverty move inversely.South Asian progress Sub-Saharan African stasis

Agricultural stagnation is a key driver of poverty and undernutrition

The consequence

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Calories/day

Per Capita Nutrient Availability (shaded areas below minima)

10.3%

2.9%16.6%

70.3%

Source: Barrett & Maxwell (2005), data: FAO food balance sheets

The WHO identifies undernutrition as the biggest risk factor for disease and death worldwide … and 30/47 SSA countries have macronutrient availability shortfalls .

Reinforcing feedback:

Low productivity causes poverty.

Poverty causes hunger and natural resource degradation.

But hunger and degraded natural resources also cause poverty and low productivity.

Hence the vicious cycle of poverty traps and resource degradation.

Poverty traps

Cornell is a global leader in research to facilitate the escape from poverty traps.

- Most persistent ultra poverty is rural.- Most of the ultra poor work in agriculture.- Human and natural resources are the main assets of the poor.- Problems are complex and multi-dimensional.

Implication: need interdisciplinary teams of disciplinary experts, a significant field presence and strong local partners in both private and public sectors. Need to integrate agricultural sciences, environmental sciences and social sciences.

Cornell has a capacity to do this that no other university in the world possesses. Led by CALS, CCSF and other units.

Cornell’s leadership

Example: Soil degradation poverty traps in Kenya

Example

Sub-Saharan Africa is losing ~$4bn/yr in soil nutrients

… plus soil degradation feeds a Striga weed problem that costs another ~$7 bn/yr in yield losses,

… and helps fuel mycotoxin contamination that poisons >25% of the food supply – and far more in tropical maize systems – leading to ill health as well as lost income.

Cornell led research has helped to identify root causes of this problem and prospective solutions :-Marginal returns to fertilizer application low on degraded soils; and poorest farmers are on the most degraded soils - Need integrated (organic + inorganic) soil fertility management: role for biochar, crop-livestock integration; targeted fertilizer subsidies; agribusiness stimulus, etc.

Cost of 1kg

nitrogen

Value of maize from 1 kg of

nitrogen

Above red line: fertilizer profitable

Below red line: fertilizer unprofitable

Kenyan rural poverty line

Example

Example

Cornell - Catholic Relief Services –University of NairobiProgram on Smallholder Market Engagement

New and proposed Cornell research on:- Identifying best entry points for combating aflatoxins

- Modeling effects of climate change on disease, pathogen and pest pressures so as to be able to identify best bet interventions

- Design and evaluation of new local and regional purchase options for emergency food assistance programs

- Development of index insurance products to help transfer famine risk into international capital markets

- Developing and evaluating improved agro-ecological approaches to boost farm productivity in low-income regions

Other Examples

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IARD 694 Course: Smallholder Market Access … some students then did a summer internship in western Kenya

Student Involvement

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Thank you for your time, comments and support!