CRAVEzero-WS @ISEC nZEB technologies and cost development
Co-funded by the Horizon 2020 Framework Programme of the European Union
Benjamin Köhler (Fraunhofer ISE)
ISEC 2018 – 4th OCT 2018
Data and Methodology Required data, data sources, method
01
Relevant technologies Active, passive, renewable
02
Cost reduction potentials Top-down
03
Discussion/ Conclusion 04
2
CRAVEzero Cost Reduction and market Acceleration for Viable nearly zero-Energy buildings
ISEC 2018 – 4th OCT 2018
Data and Methodology Required data, data sources, method
01
Relevant technologies Active, passive, renewable
02
Cost reduction potentials Top-down
03
Discussion/ Conclusion 04
3
CRAVEzero Cost Reduction and market Acceleration for Viable nearly zero-Energy buildings
ISEC 2018 – 4th OCT 2018
Data and Methodology Required data, data sources, methodology
4
• Technical parameters:
• Technical lifetime
• Installed power (kW)
• Efficiency
• Additional:
• Past market development and market forecasts
• Economic parameters:
• Absolut and specific investment cost (inflation-adjusted)
• O&M cost
• Learning rate
• Stage in lifecycle
01
Dat
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od
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01
ISEC 2018 – 4th OCT 2018
Data and Methodology Required data, data sources, methodology
•Twelve case studies are foundation
• Office, single- and multifamily buildings
• Information about HVAC and on-site renewable energy technologies
•Additional detailed literature review
Brought together in technology database (base year 2016)
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01
Dat
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od
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01
ISEC 2018 – 4th OCT 2018
Data and Methodology Required data, data sources, methodology
• Two main approaches to determine cost reduction potentials:
• Top-down
• Bottom-up
•Mainly Top-down approach applied due to data availability
• For identified critical/ very important technologies Bottom-up analysis
6
01
Dat
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eth
od
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gy
01
ISEC 2018 – 4th OCT 2018
Data and Methodology Required data, data sources, methodology
7
• Top-down
• Costs decreases in relation to increased cumulative production (learning effects)
• Learning rate describes the reduction in percent with each doubling of the cumulative volume
• Needed data: investment costs, learning rate, market forecast (EU)
• Result: cost curve for each technology
• Bottom-up
• Determine all technological cost drivers:
• Technological improvements
• Shift of manufacturing processes
• Potential pathways for future cost reductions
• Materials, Utilities, Labor, Depreciation, Maintenance
01
Dat
a an
d M
eth
od
olo
gy
01
ISEC 2018 – 4th OCT 2018
Data and Methodology Required data, data sources, method
01
Relevant technologies Active, passive, renewable
02
Cost reduction potentials Top-down
03
Discussion/ Conclusion 04
8
CRAVEzero Cost Reduction and market Acceleration for Viable nearly zero-Energy buildings
ISEC 2018 – 4th OCT 2018
Relevant technologies Active, passive, renewable
• Active:
• Heat pumps (HP; aerothermal, ground source)
• Oil and gas boiler (reference; currently widespread in buildings)
• Biomass boiler
• Air conditioning
• Ventilation (decentralized and central with heat recovery)
• Thermal storage
• Electricity storage
9
02
Re
leva
nt
tech
no
logi
es
02
ISEC 2018 – 4th OCT 2018
Relevant technologies Active, passive, renewable
• Passive:
• Insulation of building envelope
• Free ventilation
• Night cooling
• Daylight
• Shading
• Renewable:
• PV
• Solar thermal
10
02
Re
leva
nt
tech
no
logi
es
02
ISEC 2018 – 4th OCT 2018
Data and Methodology Required data, data sources, method
01
Relevant technologies Active, passive, renewable
02
Cost reduction potentials Top-down
03
Discussion/ Conclusion 04
11
CRAVEzero Cost Reduction and market Acceleration for Viable nearly zero-Energy buildings
ISEC 2018 – 4th OCT 2018
Cost reduction potentials Top-down – exemplary procedure
12
03
Co
st r
ed
uct
ion
po
ten
tial
s 0
3
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
10 100 1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000
Costs [€/kWp]
Volume [GWp]
Learning curve PV
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 2044 2048
Volume [GWp]
Year
PV marketcurve EU
ISEC 2018 – 4th OCT 2018
Cost reduction potentials Top-down – exemplary procedure
13
03
Co
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ed
uct
ion
po
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3
• Cost reduction potential of 49 %
• Costs will decrease from 1,370 €/kWp to approx. 700 €/kWp
• Range of 610 €/kWp to 810 €/kWp (-41 % to -56 %)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 2044 2048
Costs [€/kWp]
Year
Cost development PV
ISEC 2018 – 4th OCT 2018
Cost reduction potentials Top-down – exemplary procedure
14
03
Co
st r
ed
uct
ion
po
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tial
s 0
3
• Cost reduction
potentials
between 1 % and
65 %
• Stationary
batteries have
highest reduction
potential >65,4 %
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 2046
Cost reductions
Year
Cost reduction potentials 2050
Electrical storage Decentral Ventilation PV
Central ventilation Solar thermal Thermal storage
Air conditioner Aerothermal heat pump Ground source heat pump
Biomass boiler Gas boiler Oil boiler
ISEC 2018 – 4th OCT 2018
Data and Methodology Required data, data sources, method
01
Relevant technologies Active, passive, renewable
02
Cost reduction potentials Top-down
03
Discussion/ Conclusion 04
15
CRAVEzero Cost Reduction and market Acceleration for Viable nearly zero-Energy buildings
ISEC 2018 – 4th OCT 2018
Discussion/ Conclusion
16
04
Dis
cuss
ion
/ C
on
clu
sio
n
04
•Most technologies needed for nZEBs already available
• Latest and most efficient ones still have high cost reduction potential
• Probably new technologies will enter into market in coming years which ones (e.g. Fuel-cell CHP) and how fast they develop cannot be foreseen high uncertainties and therefore no cost curves developed!
• Challenge: Quantification of costs and effects of passive technologies/ strategies
ISEC 2018 – 4th OCT 2018
Discussion/ Conclusion
17
04
Dis
cuss
ion
/ C
on
clu
sio
n
04
• Top-down:
• Cost reduction potentials until 2050 between 1% to 65%
• Technologies with highest cost reduction potential: Storages, ventilation and on-site renewables
• Bottom-up:
• PV: Efficiency optimizations and lower material input
• Solar thermal systems: Less material use and switching to cheaper
• Electrical storages: Economies of scale and technological improvements
• Highly insulated building envelope and low-tech, passive strategies are essential for nZEBs
ISEC 2018 – 4th OCT 2018
Thank you for your attention! Questions?
Co-funded by the Horizon 2020 Framework Programme of the European Union
Benjamin Köhler (Fraunhofer ISE)
CRAVEzero Cost Reduction and market Acceleration for Viable nearly zero-Energy buildings