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Corporate Financing and the Six Lessons of Market Efficiency
Principles of Corporate Finance
Sixth Edition
Richard A. Brealey
Stewart C. Myers
Lu Yurong
Chapter 13
McGraw Hill/Irwin
13- 2
McGraw Hill/Irwin Copyright © 2003 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved
Topics Covered
We Always Come Back to NPV What is an Efficient Market?
Random Walk
Efficient Market Theory The Evidence on Market Efficiency Six Lessons of Market Efficiency
13- 3
McGraw Hill/Irwin Copyright © 2003 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved
Return to NPV
NPV employs discount rates These discount rates are risk adjusted The risk adjustment is a byproduct of market
established prices Adjustable discount rates change asset values
13- 4
McGraw Hill/Irwin Copyright © 2003 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved
Return to NPV
Example
The government is lending you $100,000 for 10 years at 3% and only requiring interest payments prior to maturity. Since 3% is obviously below market, what is the value of the below market rate loan?
repayment loan of PV-
pmtsinterest of PV- borrowedamount NPV
13- 5
McGraw Hill/Irwin Copyright © 2003 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved
Return to NPV
Example
The government is lending you $100,000 for 10 years at 3% and only requiring interest payments prior to maturity. Since 3% is obviously below market, what is the value of the below market rate loan?
Assume the market return on equivalent risk projects is 10%.
012,43$
988,56000,100
)10.1(
000,100
)10.1(
000,3000,001NPV
10
10
1
tt
13- 6
McGraw Hill/Irwin Copyright © 2003 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved
Random Walk Theory
The movement of stock prices from day to day DO NOT reflect any pattern.
Statistically speaking, the movement of stock prices is random (skewed positive over the long term).
13- 7
McGraw Hill/Irwin Copyright © 2003 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved
Random Walk Theory
$103.00
$100.00
$106.09
$100.43
$97.50
$100.43
$95.06
Coin Toss Game
Heads
Heads
Heads
Tails
Tails
Tails
13- 8
McGraw Hill/Irwin Copyright © 2003 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved
Random Walk Theory
S&P 500 Five Year Trend?or
5 yrs of the Coin Toss Game?
80
130
180
Month
Le
ve
l
13- 9
McGraw Hill/Irwin Copyright © 2003 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved
Random Walk Theory
S&P 500 Five Year Trend?or
5 yrs of the Coin Toss Game?
80
130
180
230
Month
Le
ve
l
13- 10
McGraw Hill/Irwin Copyright © 2003 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved
Random Walk Theory
13- 11
McGraw Hill/Irwin Copyright © 2003 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved
Random Walk Theory
13- 12
McGraw Hill/Irwin Copyright © 2003 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved
Random Walk Theory
13- 13
McGraw Hill/Irwin Copyright © 2003 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved
Random Walk Theory
13- 14
McGraw Hill/Irwin Copyright © 2003 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved
Random Walk Theory
13- 15
McGraw Hill/Irwin Copyright © 2003 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved
Efficient Market Theory
Weak Form Efficiency Market prices reflect all historical information
Semi-Strong Form Efficiency Market prices reflect all publicly available
information
Strong Form Efficiency Market prices reflect all information, both public
and private
13- 16
McGraw Hill/Irwin Copyright © 2003 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved
Efficient Market Theory
Fundamental Analysts Research the value of stocks using NPV and other
measurements of cash flow
13- 17
McGraw Hill/Irwin Copyright © 2003 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved
Efficient Market Theory
Technical Analysts Forecast stock prices based on the watching the
fluctuations in historical prices (thus “wiggle wiggle watcherswatchers”)
13- 18
McGraw Hill/Irwin Copyright © 2003 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved
Efficient Market Theory
Last Month
This Month
Next Month
$90
70
50
Microsoft Stock Price
Cycles disappear
once identified
13- 19
McGraw Hill/Irwin Copyright © 2003 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved
Efficient Market Theory
-16
-11
-6
-1
4
9
14
19
24
29
34
39
Days Relative to annoncement date
Cu
mu
lati
ve
Ab
no
rma
l Re
turn
(%
)
Announcement Date
13- 20
McGraw Hill/Irwin Copyright © 2003 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved
Efficient Market Theory
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
1962
1977
1992
Re
turn
(%
)
FundsMarket
Average Annual Return on 1493 Mutual Funds and the Market Index
13- 21
McGraw Hill/Irwin Copyright © 2003 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved
Efficient Market Theory
0
5
10
15
20
First Second Third Fourth Fifth
Av
era
ge
Re
turn
(%
)
IPO
Matched Stocks
IPO Non-Excess Returns
Year After Offering
13- 22
McGraw Hill/Irwin Copyright © 2003 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved
Efficient Market Theory
1987 Stock Market Crash
119310.114.
7.16)( crash pre
gr
DivindexPV
13- 23
McGraw Hill/Irwin Copyright © 2003 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved
Efficient Market Theory
1987 Stock Market Crash
119310.114.
7.16)( crash pre
gr
DivindexPV
928096.114.
7.16)( crashpost
gr
DivindexPV
13- 24
McGraw Hill/Irwin Copyright © 2003 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved
Lessons of Market Efficiency
Markets have no memoryTrust market pricesRead the entrailsThere are no financial illusionsThe do it yourself alternativeSeen one stock, seen them all
13- 25
McGraw Hill/Irwin Copyright © 2003 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved
Example: How stock splits affect value
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Month relative to split
Cumulative abnormal return %
-29 0 30
Source: Fama, Fisher, Jensen & Roll
13- 26
McGraw Hill/Irwin Copyright © 2003 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved
Preparation for Next Class
Please read:
BM Chapter 14 , P383-400