Corporate presentation - nbg.gr · CET1 ratio CRD IV FL 16.5% 6.7% 6.6% 5.8% RWAs (€bn) 36.2 37.3...

Corporate presentation

June 2018

1 Corporate Presentation – June 2018

No representation or warranty, express or implied, is or will be made in relation to, and no responsibility is or will be accepted

by National Bank of Greece (the Group) as to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained in this presentation

and nothing in this presentation shall be deemed to constitute such a representation or warranty.

Although the statements of fact and certain industry, market and competitive data in this presentation have been obtained from

and are based upon sources that are believed to be reliable, their accuracy is not guaranteed and any such information may be

incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates included in this presentation are subject to change without notice. The

Group is under no obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein.

In addition, certain of these data come from the Group’s own internal research and estimates based on knowledge and

experience of management in the market in which it operates. Such research and estimates and their underlying methodology

have not been verified by any independent source for accuracy or completeness. Accordingly, you should not place undue

reliance on them.

Certain statements in this presentation constitute forward-looking statements. Such forward looking statements are subject to

risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially. These risks and uncertainties include, among other

factors, changing economic, financial, business or other market conditions. As a result, you are cautioned not to place any

reliance on such forward-looking statements. Nothing in this presentation should be construed as a profit forecast and no

representation is made that any of these statement or forecasts will come to pass. Persons receiving this presentation should

not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements and are advised to make their own independent analysis and

determination with respect to the forecast periods, which reflect the Group’s view only as of the date hereof.

Legal

Important Notice – Forward Looking Information

Table of Contents

1 Overview

2 Financial Highlights

3 Profitability

4 Asset Quality

5 Liquidity

6 Macro

7 Appendix I

Appendix II: Financials

Overview

1


Comprehensive strategy to tap the Greek recovery potential

Utilize high coverage to work through NPLs

Deploy liquidity to support the recovery of the Greek economy

Improve profitability to allow for strong organic capital

generation

Overview


Successfully completed all major strategic objectives since the 2015 recapitalization

Completed divestments of FB,

Astir & PE funds in line with

the restructuring plan

Increased loan loss coverage

to the highest levels among

peers

Set the basis for OPEX

reduction

Optimized collateral and

liquidity management

Significantly improved

financial performance across

key metrics

Exceeded NPE and NPL

reduction targets

2016

FY.17 Group cPPI increases by

+4% yoy

FY.17 Group OpEx declines by

6% yoy

Exceeded 2017 NPE reduction

targets by more than €0.83 b

Divestments of UBB & Vojvo

enhance further capital and

liquidity position

ELA elimination

€1.5b loan disbursements to

corporates

2017

Consistently delivering on all strategic objectives

2015

Recapitalization

following the AQR

results

Restructuring plan

approval by EC

Revised strategy and

changed leadership

Overview

Successful ST result on the

back of high CET

Return to profitability on the

back of substantially lower

CoR vs high levels of 2017

Liquidity to be channeled

towards healthy corporates,

c€2.5b in new corporate

disbursements

Enhancing outperformance

buffer on NPE reduction

Complete divestments of

Insurance business and SEE

subs

2018E


Positioning to take advantage of gradual economic recovery in the following years

- Satisfy healthy corporate credit

demand induced by a growing

economic environment, benefiting

NIM through mix improvement

and NII through levering up

- Capitalize on leading debit card

position to increase POS fees as

well as e-banking transaction fees

and lending related fees

- Further staff cost reduction to

improve efficiency

- Utilize high coverage to work

through NPE reduction over and

above the targets agreed with the

SSM

- Achieve all asset quality KPIs

agreed with SSM

- Increase restructuring efforts,

containing re-defaults

- Utilize closure measures to allow

for effective signaling towards

strategic defaulters

- Establish a sizable and recurring

presence in the primary wholesale

funding markets

- Capitalize on leading brand name

to attract deposit inflows

Aid pre provision income growthA

Improve asset qualityB

Normalize the liquidity positionC

Medium Term Strategic objectives

Overview


Remaining NPE reduction at €3.4b (€ b)

2017 NPE operational performance ahead of targets Bank NPE reduction targets (SSM perimeter) (€ b)

21.5

-5.0

-3.413.1

FY15 Done Remaining FY19

NPEs decline for 8 straight quarters adding up to a reduction of €5b; 1Q18 NPE stock €0.9b lower vs SSM target

Overview

• Operational targets submitted to the SSM commit to a reduction

of NPLs and NPEs by €7.5b and €8.4b over the period 2016-

2019, equal to a reduction of c.50% and c.40% respectively

• Upon achieving these targets in 2019, NPL and NPE ratios will

have been reduced by c.15ppts, with NPE coverage above 50%

• Reduction of €5.0b to date, is in part due to negative NPE

formation (-€1.8b) and due to write offs (-€3.2b)

15.2 15.3 15.0 15.0

14.0 13.913.6 13.6

12.711.9

10.6

7.7

6.4 0.0 6-0.9 5.6

-1.04.7

-0.94.7

-0.2 4-0.3 -0.2

-0.7-0.8 4.6

-3.4

21.5 21.5

20.6

19.618.7 18.5 18.2 18.0

17.316.5

16.0

13.1

FY15 1

1Q

16 2

2Q

16 3

3Q

16 4

4Q

16 5

1Q

17 6

2Q

17 7

3Q

17 8

4Q

17 9

1Q

18

10

FY18

11

FY19

-8.4

NPLs

NPEs

NPE reduction target

Total targeted:

-€8.4b

1Q.18 target

exceeded by €0.9b


1. Latest available data, including IFRS9 impact

2. Texas ratio=Net NPLs/TBV

Overview

NBG stands out in asset quality

Coverage

ratio

90dpd

ratio

Texas

ratio2

TBV (€b)

Unprovided

NPLs (€b)

83%

80%

73%

71%

31%

36% 35%

33%

NBG Peer 1 Peer 2 Peer 3

Peer Group1: 90dpd & Coverage (Group) Peer Group1: NPE & Coverage (Group)

60% 51%50%

56%

43%

56%

52%

42%


Coverage

ratio

NPE ratio

5.0 5.4

7.9

4.8

-2.3-4.1

-5.2 -4.6


0.45x 0.77x 0.66x 0.96x

Peer Group1: net NPLs/TBV (Group)


NBG Bank NPE stock vs P/TBV | 4Q16-1Q18

*Mkt prices as at July 9th, 2018

P/TBV vs unprovided NPLs / TBV | latest*

18.7 18.518.2 18.0

17.3

16.5

4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2

-€0.2b

-€0.3b-€0.2b

0.28

0.32

0.42

0.47

0.52

0.56

4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18

NBG

Piraeus

AlphaEurobank

Unprovided NPLs/TBV

P/T

BV

NPE

stock

(€ b)

P/TBV (x)

Asset quality developments correlate with valuations

-€0.7b

Overview

-€0.8b

10 Corporate Presentation – June 2018Overview

CET1 ratio at 16.5%, comfortably above regulatory requirements

17.0%16.5%

9.375%

4Q17 1Q18 2018 Regulatory

Requirement

RWAs

(€ bn)37.3 36.2

CET1:

€6.0bn

CET1:

9.375%

OCR:

12.875%

CET 1 ratio

CET1:

€6.3bn

IFRS 9 CET1 evolution

DTC:

€4.7b

17.0%

(0.5%)(0.2%)

16.3%

0.2%

16.5%

13.0%

4Q17CET1

IFRS9impact 2018

1.1.18CRR FL

4Q17 CET1pf

1Q18 CET1evolution

CET11Q18

CET1 FL1Q18


Corporate loans market shares | 1Q18

Domestic L:D ratio (%) |1Q18

Total & Core deposit market shares | 1Q18

ELA exposure (€ b) latest available

Superior liquidity gives NBG the opportunity to reclaim profitable market share in the corporate segment

18.9%

35.0%

25.5%

20.6%23.0%

28.3%25.8%

22.9%

NBG Piraeus Alpha Eurobank

87

75

118

96

136

118

140

117

1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18

Alpha

Eurobank

Piraeus

NBG

1.0

3.03.9

-1.5


Current

cash buffer

Overview

Performing

LoansGross

Loans

28.3%30.5%

22.3%

19.0%

31.2% 30.8%

21.0%

17.1%


Core

deposits Total

deposits

Financial Highlights

2


NBG NPE reduction €0.9 ahead of the 1Q SSM target; imminent loan sale will accelerate performance

Liquidity, Asset Quality & Capital Highlights Key Ratios - Group

1Q18 FY17 9M17 1Q17

Liquidity

Loans-to-Deposits ratio1 76% 77% 83% 87%

ELA exposure (€ b) 0 0 2.3 5.6

Profitability

NIM (bps) 287 312 301 306

Cost-to-income 61% 58% 58% 49%

Asset quality

NPE ratio 42.7% 43.7% 45.2% 45.0%

NPE coverage ratio 60.2% 61.2% 55.7% 55.9%

Cost of Risk (bps) 156 243 238 279

Capital

CET1 ratio CRD IV FL 16.5% 16.7% 16.6% 15.8%

RWAs (€ bn) 36.2 37.3 38.5 41.3

Highlights

Domestic NPE stock reduction continues for 8 straight quarters

• NPE reduction continues in 1Q, with the stock reduced by €0.8b, reflecting negative

formation of €0.1b and write offs of €0.7b, fully provided

• Net NPE reduction achieved since end-2015 at €5.0b, exceeds FY.17 SSM target by

€0.9b; reduction is attributable to negative NPE formation of -€1.8b, with the

remainder realized from write offs

• NPE and NPL coverage at sector leading levels of 60% and 84%, combined with the

lowest NPL and NPE levels in Greece

ELA has been safely eliminated

• Domestic deposits stabilized in 1Q despite a seasonally strong 4Q17, when deposits

had increased by €1.7b

• Superior liquidity position and lowest funding cost among local peers, put NBG in an

advantageous position to satisfy accelerating corporate credit demand in 2018 as

corporate disbursements exceeded €0.5b per quarter in 4Q17 and 1Q18, a post crisis

record

CET1 ratio at 16.5%

• IFRS9 CET1 at 16.5% incorporating IFRS9 phase in impact of 50bps and the CRD IV

FL impact of 16bps

• CET1 ratio factors in BROM and Albania capital losses

1. FY17 restated for IFRS9 FTA


€ m 1Q18 1Q17 YoY 4Q17 QoQ

NII 289 366 -21% 324 -11%

Net Fees & Commissions 62 60 +5% 65 -5%

Core Income 351 426 -18% 389 -10%

Trading & other income 25 39 -37% 21 +19%

Income 376 465 -19% 410 -8%

Operating Expenses (231) (228) +1% (248) -7%

Core PPI 120 198 -39% 141 -15%

PPI 145 237 -39% 162 -10%

Provisions (120) (233) -49% (200) -40%

Operating Profit 25 4 >100% (38) n/m

Other impairments 1 (7) n/m (19) n/m

PBT 26 (3) n/m (57) n/m

Taxes (6) (6) -9% (4) +66%

PAT (cont. ops) 20 (9) n/m (60) n/m

PAT (discont. ops) 24 31 -24% (200) n/m

Minorities (10) (9) +11% (5) >100%

PAT 34 13 >100% (265) n/m

P&L Highlights

NBG is back in the black: 1Q18 PAT from continued operations at €20m

Highlights

Group P&L

1Q18 group PAT from continued operations at €20m vs losses of

€60m in 4Q17, reflects:

• A reduction in group core income (-10% qoq) driven by lower NII

(-11% qoq) and Fees (-5%); NII drop is due to the once off impact of

IFRS9 FTA, additional restructurings and sustained deleveraging on

the retail book, with corporate balances remaining stable

• Non core income stood at €25m vs €21m in Q4.17 adjusted for the

Titlos reclassification

• Lower group OpEx aided by seasonality in 4Q17 (-7% qoq or +1%

yoy)

• Credit risk charges dropping by 40% qoq, translating into a CoR

ratio of 156bps vs 249bps in 4Q; a level expected to be reduced

further going forward

Profitability

3


Group NII & NIM (€ m)

Group PPI by region (€ m)

1. First time adoption

2. PPI margin & CoR are calculated over net loans

Despite NII pressure from IFRS9 FTA1, 1Q18 operating profit reaches €25m, driven by normalizing credit risk charges

Profitability

Group Operating margin2 (bps)

Group PPI bridge (€ m)

162

-35-3

4 +17 145

4Q17 ΔNII Δfees Δnon core

income

ΔOpEx 1Q18

NII drop reflects

IFRS9 FTA,

deleveraging and

restructuring impacts

-10.4%

202 189

-249 -156

4Q17 1Q18

Group PPI

margin (bps)

Group

CoR (bps)

Group

operating

margin (bps)

366 362 334 324289

306 315 310 319

287

1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18

NII (€m) NIM (bps)

153134

9

11

162

145

4Q17 1Q18

-12.3%

-10.4%

QoQ

-47 33

SEE

Greece

Group Operating

Profit (€m)25-38


Evolution of domestic net loans (€ b)

Greece

IFRS9 FTA adjust NII and NIM to lower levels; continued deleveraging in 1Q adds to the pressure

Profitability

Domestic NII evolution (€ m)

Domestic NII breakdown

343 338 310 302269

304314 308

320

287

1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18

NII (€m) NIM (bps)

30.3

-0.7 -0.4 -0.3 -0.1

28.9

4Q17 Mortgages Consumer SBLs Corporate 1Q18

reduction of

€1.1b in eop

net balances,

due to IFRS9

FTA and

€0.3b due to

retail book

deleveraging

1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18

Loans 370 352 339 330 298

Deposits -37 -37 -36 -39 -39

Bonds 40 47 31 31 26

Eurosystem &

wholesale-21 -20 -15 -14 -14

Subs & other -9 -5 -8 -6 -3

Total 343 338 310 302 269

302

-22 -11 -5

0 3269

4Q17 Loans Unwind Bonds Eur/stem &

wholesale

Subs &

other

1Q18


17.8 17.9 18.1 18.5 18.4

7.0 7.2 7.58.8 7.7

11.3 11.1 11.111.0 12.2

36.1 36.2 36.738.4 38.4

1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18

Time

Sight &

other

Savings

+6.5% yoy

Greek deposit yields (bps)

17 1714

18 17

89 89 90

86 87

41 40 39 40 40

1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18

Domestic deposits remain flat qoq, despite positive seasonality in 4Q (+€1.7b qoq)

Profitability

Greek deposits evolution (€ b)

Time

Total

69% 69% 70% 71% 68% Core deposits/total

Market share at

36%

Core


Greek lending yields1 (bps)

255 256 254 253 247

932 934 935922 915

631 627 625 619605

404 398 390 389 382

1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18

1: Calculated on performing loans including FNPEs<90dpd

Encouraging signs of corporate credit demand picking up, lead to disbursements of €1.1 in 4Q.17 and 1Q.18

Profitability

Greek loan evolution (€ b)

11.2 11.0 10.9 10.8 10.6

2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.1

1.4 1.4 1.3 1.4 1.3

13.0 12.8 12.5 12.8 12.8

27.8 27.4 26.9 27.2 26.9

1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18

Corporate

SBL

Consumer

Mortgages

Consumer

SBLs

Corporate

Mortgages

Lending yield (bps)

-1.1% qoq

31.3 30.8 30.3 30.3 28.9 Net loans

Performing loans

395 393 388 385 377


27 25 25

21 23 22

1012

10

58

61

57

1Q17 4Q17 1Q18

Fund mgm,

Brokerage &

other

Wholesale

Banking Fees

Retail

Banking Fees

5460

57

6

66

60

6562

1Q17 4Q17 1Q18

Group fee income by region incl. ELA fees (€ m)

1Q18 domestic fee income up by +5% yoy, driven by Pillar II savings

Profitability

Domestic fees excl. ELA fees (€ m)

Fees/Assets1

Total

SEE &

Other

0.38%

Greece

0.44% 0.43%

+4.8%

YoY

-8%

+4.5%

1: Excluding assets held for sale

ELA cost 4 1 0


58% 60% 61%

FY17 4Q17 1Q18

Domestic OpEx evolution (€ m)

Group OpEx by category (€ m)

1Q18 domestic costs +1% yoy / -7% qoq; Greek headcount at 9.8K vs 15.0K pre crisis

Profitability

Headcount evolution (‘000)

Domestic cost-to-income evolution

Greece Group

1Q18 1Q17 yoy 1Q18 1Q17 yoy

Personnel 134 131 +2.2% 145 142 +2.0%

G&As 58 57 +2.3% 64 63 +1.6%

Depreciation 21 22 -5.4% 22 23 -5.2%

Total 213 210 +1.4% 231 228 +1.1%

131 132 136 138 134

79 79 83 90 79

210 211 219 228213

1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18

15.012.2 12.0

9.9 9.9 9.8 9.8 9.8 9.8

10.1

7.9 7.8

1.6 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.6

25.1

20.1 19.8

11.5 11.5 11.5 11.5 11.5 11.5

FY09 1 FY14 FY15 FY16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18

G&A &

other

Staff

SEE &

Other

Greece

1. Excludes Ethniki Insurance, UBB, BROM, Vojvo & NBG Albania employees

111 1 1 1

Asset quality

4


Domestic NPE stock evolution (€ b)

Domestic NPE stock per category – 1Q18 (€ b)

Consistently negative NPE formation, pre write offs

Asset quality

NPE* flows (€ m, SSM perimeter)

Domestic NPE stock movement (€ b)

16.8

12.0

5.5

1.31.9

3.4

1.6

0.30.3

2.5

7.1

1.62.2

5.8

Mortgages Consumer SBL Corporate

FNPE & other

impaired

90dpd

14.3 13.9 13.9 12.8 12.0

4.7 4.8 4.64.8 4.7

19.0 18.7 18.5 17.6 16.8

1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18

FNPEs & other

impaired

90dpd

45.1% 45.2% 45.3% 44.1% 43.1%NPE ratio1

22.0

-1.6-1.2

19.2 0.0

-0.2

19.0 0.0

-0.3

18.7

-0.1-0.1

18.5

-0.2-0.7

17.7

-0.1-0.1-0.7

16.8

631

410 391321 351

-531

-337-416

-305 -323

3 -61-101 -67

-119

1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18

NPE inflows

NPE outflows

Recoveries,

liquidations

& other

12 -126 -51 -9138

1 FY17 restated for IFRS9


Mortgages (€ m)

* SSM perimeter

Asset quality

Negative NPE formation (pre write offs) continues in all books except mortgages

Consumer (€ m) NPE formation* (€ m)

SBLs (€ m) Corporate (€ m)

64 53 30 27 69

1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18

-42 -38 -20-5

-7

1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18

9 9

-12

-48

-12

1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18

7

-12

-124

-25

-140

1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18

38

12

-126

-51

-91

1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18


Mortgages (€ m)

Asset quality

Negative 90dpd formation in 1Q is driven by corporates

Consumer (€ m) Domestic 90dpd formation (€ m)

SBLs (€ m) Corporate (€ m)

145

25

-18

-95

22

1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18

9

-7

11

-20

13

1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18

7 17

-6-35

-8

1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18

-24-87

79

-161-84

1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18

137

-52

66

-311

-57

1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18


Domestic NPE ratios and coverage

Domestic 90dpd ratios

1. Cash provisions incorporate additional haircuts on the market value of collateral to account for the prospect of distressed sale; all numbers bank level

Lowest 90dpd and NPE ratios in Greece, combine with the highest cash coverage especially following IFRS9 FTA

Asset quality

Domestic forborne stock (€ bn)

Domestic 90dpd – NPE bridge (€ bn)

Cash

coverage

Cash

coverage

18% 44% 53% 25% 26%LLAs/

Gross loans

12.0

3.2 1.1 0.4 16.8

90dpd FNPE <30 FNPE 31-90 Other impaired NPEs

53%

115%

91%

119% 84.0% 82.9%

34%

38%

59%

21%30.9% 31.0%

Mortgages Consumer SBL Corporate Total GRE Group

41%

94%

78%

68% 60.4% 60.2%

44% 47%

68%

36%43.1% 42.7%

Mortgages Consumer SBL Corporate Total GRE Group

FNPE<30 dpd

3.2

FNPE 31-90dpd

1.1

FNPE >90dpd

2.9

FPE 2.8

10.0

Collateral

coverage175% 12% 57% 53% 59%

SEE & other:

90dpd ratio: 32%

Coverage: 63%

SEE & other:

NPE ratio: 35%

Coverage: 57%

Collateral

coverage173% 11% 55% 51% 57%


S2 ratios and coverage (%)

Loan staging and evolution (€ b)

S3 loan exposure lower by €0.9b qoq, coverage at 55.8% (Group)

Asset quality

Total NPE (%)

S3 ratios and coverage (%)

16.07 15.44

7.59 8.01

18.29 17.43

01.01.18 31.03.18

S3

S2

S1

+0.42

-0.63

Δ

-0.86

7.1% 7.1%

18.1%19.6%

01.01.18 31.03.18

57.7% 55.8%

43.6% 42.6%

01.01.18 31.03.18

61.2% 60.2%

43.7% 42.7%

01.01.18 31.03.18

Ratio

Coverage

Ratio

Coverage

Ratio

Coverage

Liquidity

5

29 Corporate Presentation – June 2018Liquidity

10.0 10.012.5 11.8

8.9 8.26.7

4.6 4.62.8 2.8 2.8

17.615.6 11.5

11.0

6.1 5.1

5.6

5.6 3.8

0.9

4.0

3.84.7

5.2

4.4

3.4 2.9 3.4

27.6

25.6

24 23.7

19

17.1 17

15.4

12.8

6.1 5.76.2

Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17

ECB

ELA

Interbank

Eurosystem and Interbank funding evolution (all amounts in €bn and cash equivalents)

Waiver

Reinstatement

Pillars

cancellation

Collateral

optimization

Interbank funding

-4,0bn Eurosystem

exposureSinepia

+0,3bn cash

Correlated assets

repos

-1,2bn Eurosystem

exposure

Jun-17Sep-15Jun-15

Increase of

correlated assets

repos

May-18

Total Eurosystem exposure reduced by c. €20b; ELA reduced by c. €16b; on the back of the divestment plan,

interbank access and deleveraging

Key drivers of ELA elimination:

• Market access through interbank repos transactions (€3.0b) & bond issuance (€0.75b)

• Divestments proceeds (€3.5b)

• Deposit inflows (€2.4b)

• Loan deleveraging (€3.3b)

Jun-17

Mar-18Dec-17


Peer group analysis: liquidity position (Group)

1: Excl. EFSF & ESM bonds

2: Estimated based on latest available funding balances & yields

3: Peer average data excluding NBG, based on latest available data

Best in class liquidity and lowest cost of funding place NBG at an advantageous position vs peers to satisfy demand

for credit from healthy corporates

Liquidity

NBG domestic deposit flows per quarter (€ b)

Peer Group: Domestic funding cost2

0.49%0.54%

0.70% 0.69%


91% 91% 89%86% 87% 85%

83%79% 75%

141% 138%134% 131% 131%

128%124%

119%

110%

1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18

Peer domestic

L:D ratio3

NBG Greece

L/D ratio

provides

upside for

selective

credit

growth

Domestic L:D ratio evolution

0.01.0

3.03.9


0% 7%5%2%ELA/

Assets1

-2.2

-4.8-3.6

0.3 0.8

-0.9

0.0 0.3 0.9

-0.8

0.2 0.51.7

0.0

4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18

-€10.6 b +€3.0 b

Macro

6


Sources: EL.STAT., EU Commission & PMI Markit

-80

-70

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

-45

-30

-15

0

15

30

Aug

-13

No

v-13

Feb

-14

May-14

Aug

-14

No

v-14

Feb

-15

May-15

Aug

-15

No

v-15

Feb

-16

May-16

Aug

-16

No

v-16

Feb

-17

May-17

Aug

-17

No

v-17

Feb

-18

May-18

Industrial (left axis) Services (left axis)

Retail (left axis) Construction (right axis)

Index

Greece: Business confidence indicators

Activity is gaining strength in the run-up to the completion of the 3rd programme

Retail sales & consumer confidence

PMI & Capacity utilizationEconomic sentiment & real GDP growth

60

62

64

66

68

70

72

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

Jul-

13

Oct

-13

Jan-1

4

Apr-

14

Jul-

14

Oct

-14

Jan-1

5

Apr-

15

Jul-

15

Oct

-15

Jan-1

6

Apr-

16

Jul-

16

Oct

-16

Jan-1

7

Apr-

17

Jul-

17

Oct

-17

Jan-1

8

Apr-

18

PMI, deviat. from 50 (left axis) Capacity utilization (right axis)

Index%

Macro

-100

-90

-80

-70

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

Sep

-12

Jan-1

3

May-13

Sep

-13

Jan-1

4

May-14

Sep

-14

Jan-1

5

May-15

Sep

-15

Jan-1

6

May-16

Sep

-16

Jan-1

7

May-17

Sep

-17

Jan-1

8

May-18

Retail sales (volume, y-o-y, left axis)

Consumer confidence (index, right axis)

y-o-y index

70

80

90

100

110

120

-12

-7

-2

3

8

200

6:Q

1

200

6:Q

4

200

7:Q

3

200

8:Q

2

200

9:Q

1

200

9:Q

4

201

0:Q

3

201

1:Q

2

201

2:Q

1

201

2:Q

4

201

3:Q

3

201

4:Q

2

201

5:Q

1

201

5:Q

4

201

6:Q

3

201

7:Q

2

201

8:Q

1

GDP growth (left axis)

EC Economic sentiment indicator (right axis)

y-o-y index

May-18


2

4

6

8

10

12

1000

1500

2000

2500

No

v-15

Jan-1

6

Mar-

16

May-16

Jul-

16

Sep

-16

No

v-16

Jan-1

7

Mar-

17

May-17

Jul-

17

Sep

-17

No

v-17

Jan-1

8

Mar-

18

May-18*

FTSE/ATHEX Large Cap (left axis)

10yr Greek Government bond yield (right axis)

Greek non-financial corp. bond yield (BoG Composite Index, right axis)

Index %

*as of May 30, 2018

Fiscal overperformance continues, albeit financial market volatility increased

Greece: Gen. Gov. Primary balance (as % of GDP) State budget Primary balance (as % of GDP)

Greek Sovereign, corporate bond yields & stock market

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

2013* 2014* 2015*

2016* 2017* 2018*

% GDP

surplus

deficit

*excluding SMP &

ANFA revenue

-16

-12

-8

-4

0

4

-16

-12

-8

-4

0

4

200

9

201

0

201

1

201

2

201

3

201

4

201

5

201

6

201

7e

201

8f

Gen.Gov. total balance Gen.Gov. primary balance

Primary balance (Programme target) Primary balance (Budget 2018)

% GDP

Greek Government bond yields

Sources: EL.STAT., Greek MinFin, Bloomberg, PDMA, EU Commission & NBG estimates

Macro

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

22/11/1

7

1/1

2/1

7

10/12/1

7

19/12/1

7

28/12/1

7

6/1

/18

15/1/1

8

24/1/1

8

2/2

/18

11/2/1

8

20/2/1

8

1/3

/18

10/3/1

8

19/3/1

8

28/3/1

8

6/4

/18

15/4/1

8

24/4/1

8

3/5

/18

12/5/1

8

21/5/1

8

30/5/1

8

6m T-bill 5yr GGB 7yr GGB 10yr GGB 10yr Italian GB

%

Italy


LFS Employment & ERGANI net flows

-16

-12

-8

-4

0

4

-16

-12

-8

-4

0

4

H2

:2009

H1

:2010

H2

:2010

H1

:2011

H2

:2011

H1

:2012

H2

:2012

H1

:2013

H2

:2013

H1

:2014

H2

:2014

H1

:2015

H2

:2015

H1

:2016

H2

:2016

H1

:2017

H2

:2017

Office prices (Athens, y-o-y)

Retail prices (Athens, y-o-y)

House prices (total, y-o-y)

y-o-y

2017 Q4: -0.3% y-o-y

Sources: EL.STAT., Greek Ministry of Labour, EU Commission, Bank of Greece & NBG estimates

Trade of goods and services

Macro

The labor market and export activity entered 2018 in high gear and the real estate market is stabilizing

Real estate prices (y-o-y)

3,60

3,65

3,70

3,75

3,80

-18

-13

-8

-3

2

7

12

Dec-

16

Jan-1

7

Feb

-17

Mar-

17

Apr-

17

May-

17

Jun

-17

Jul-

17

Aug

-17

Sep

-17

Oct

-17

No

v-17

Dec-

17

Jan-1

8

Feb

-18

Mar-

18

Apr-

18

Χιλ

ιάδ

ες

Χιλ

ιάδ

ες

Net hiring (ERGANI data, s.a., annual flow, thsnd persons, 3m m.a., left axis)

Employment (LFS s.a. data, thsnd persons, 3m m.a., right axis)

annual flow, thsnd persons

thousand

persons

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

Mar-

14

Jun

-14

Sep

-14

Dec-

14

Mar-

15

Jun

-15

Sep

-15

Dec-

15

Mar-

16

Jun

-16

Sep

-16

Dec-

16

Mar-

17

Jun

-17

Sep

-17

Dec-

17

Mar-

18

Exports of goods (excl. oil & ships, 12m m.a., left axis)

Imports of goods (excl. oil & ships, 12m m.a., left axis)

Total services receipts (12m m.a., right axis)

y-o-y,

12m m.a.

y-o-y, 12m m.a.

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

200

9

201

0

201

1

201

2

201

3

201

4

201

5

201

6

201

7

201

8Q

1

Tourist arrivals (excl. cruises, y-o-y)

Tourism receipts (excl. cruises, y-o-y)

y-o-y y-o-y

Tourism: Arrivals & Revenue (excluding cruises)

Appendix I

7


C) Efficiency Improvement

A) Funding Cost Improvement

1. 2Q15 figures include the Ethniki Insurance Company

2. Down due to restructuring impact

3. Excludes the Ethniki Insurance company agreed to be sold

4. Expected NBG inflows in the 2 years following the imposition of capital controls at c.€3-4b, actual experienced at €3.0b

NBG delivery of medium term targets envisaged in the 2015 capital raise

Appendix I

D) CoR Evolution

B) Business Mix Optimization & Income growth

Greece

2Q15 1Q18 Δ

Time deposits repricing (bps) 185 87 -98

Reduction of ELA (€ b) 17.6 0.0 -17.6

Elimination of Pillar bonds (€ b) 8.7 0.0 -8.7

Deposit inflows (€ b)4 3-4 3.0

Greece

2Q151 1Q183 Δ

Gross Corporate loans / Total

loans (%)39.7 41.4 +170bps ●

Lending yield2 (bps) 411 377 -34 ●

Net Interest Income (€ m) 379 269 -110

Net Interest Margin (bps) 249 287 +38

Fee Income / Assets (bps) 30 43 +13 ●

Greece

2Q151 1Q183 Δ

# of employees (in 000s) 12.4 9.8 -2.6

Employee wage bill (€ m, ann.) 664 536 -128

Greece

FY14A FY17A 1Q18A

CoR (bps) 270 249 167

P&L charge (€ m, annualized) 1,000 771 484


Capital controls framework

• 100% of cash deposited after 22.07.16 can be withdrawn

• €840 equivalent per fortnight per customer (applicable up to

31.08.2017)

• €1.800 equivalent per month per customer (applicable from

1.09.2017)


1.03.2018


04.06.2018

• Allowed for existing (as of 11.03.16) customers

• Subject to specific criteria, e.g. primary payroll account, for new

customers

• Private individuals can transfer up to €1,000 per month

• Allowed

• Allowed

• Allowed

• Proceeds can be re-invested

• Prohibited when changing to foreign custodian

• Allowed

• < €350k approval at bank level

• Weekly limit for bank-level committee at €112mn

• > €350k approval by the Banking Transactions Approval

Committee

Cash

withdrawal

limit

New account

opening

• Allowed for existing (as of 11.03.16) customers

• Prohibited for new customers

Additional

account

beneficiary

• 100% of incoming funds can be re-transferred abroad

• 10% of incoming funds received before 22.07.16 can be withdrawn

• 30% of incoming funds received between 22.07.16 and 31.08.17

can be withdrawn

• 50% of incoming funds received after 01.09.2017 can be withdrawn

Transfers from

abroad

Outgoing wire

transfers

abroad

Time deposit

break

Purchase of

Greek mutual

funds

Greek capital

market

instruments

Foreign

investments

liquidation

Change of

Custodian Bank

Trade related

payments

Early loan

repayment

Appendix I


Evolution of RWAs (€ b)

Appendix I

RWA Evolution | Asset-liability mix

Asset mix (€ b) Liability mix (€ b)

Other,

12.7

DTA, 4.9

SEE & Other net

loans, 1.7

Domestic net

loans; 28.9

EFSF/ESM

bonds; 1.1

Securities;

7.0

Interbank

placements; 1.9Cash; 3.3

61.6

Assets

Total equity and

minorities; 5.2

Other Liabil;

7.3

Debt

securities; 1.2

SEE & Other

deposits; 1.9

Time &

Other; 12.2

Current &

Sight; 7.7

Savings; 18.4

ECB, 2.8

Interbank liabil,

4.8

61.6

Liabilities

Domestic

deposits 38.4

61.8

-20.7

41.1

-3.8

37.3

-1.1

36.2

-3.8

RWAs

2015

RWAs

2016

RWAs

2017

1Q18

Planned

Divestments

39 Corporate Presentation – June 2018Appendix I

NBG Shareholder structure as at July 2018

HFSF 40.4%

Domestic private &

public entitieslegal

entities 1.2%

Int'l Institutionals 49.1%

Domestic pension funds &

other 0.3%

Domestic retail

investors 6.9%

Domestic inst.

investors 2.1%

Domestic investors: 10.5%

Appendix II: Financials


Balance Sheet | Group

Group Balance Sheet & P&L

P&L | Group

€ m 1Q18 4Q17 3Q17 2Q17 1Q17

Cash & Reserves 3 314 1 778 1 175 1 200 1 185

Interbank placements 1 915 1 736 1 861 1 999 1 944

Securities 8 130 9 221 11 996 15 322 16 634

Loans (Gross) 41 024 42 103 42 972 43 545 44 275

Provisions (10 439) (11 135) (10 868) (10 937) (11 144)

Goodwill & intangibles 131 132 122 122 115

Tangible assets 1 071 1 086 1 074 1 084 1 113

DTA 4 916 4 916 4 916 4 917 4 917

Other assets 6 495 6 570 6 499 6 647 6 768

Assets held for sale 4 996 4 996 6 096 5 974 9 750

Total assets 61 554 61 404 65 843 69 873 75 557

Interbank liabilities 7 531 7 341 9 850 13 942 16 521

Due to customers 40 311 40 265 38 568 38 098 37 904

Debt securities 1 232 1 197 461 523 550

Other liabilities 3 093 3 257 5 180 5 556 5 856

Hybrids - - - - -

Liabilities held for sale 3 535 3 511 4 356 4 332 7 124

Minorities 693 683 669 660 689

Equity 5 159 5 149 6 757 6 762 6 913

Total liabilities and

equity61 554 61 404 65 843 69 873 75 557

Appendix II

€ m 1Q18 4Q17 3Q17 2Q17 1Q17

NII 289 324 334 362 366

Net fees 62 65 56 59 60

Core Income 351 389 390 420 426

Trading & other income 25 21 (39) (29) 39

Income 376 410 351 391 465

Operating Expenses (231) (248) (237) (229) (228)

Core Pre-Provision Income 120 141 153 191 198

Pre-Provision Income 145 162 113 162 237

Provisions (120) (200) (155) (200) (233)

Operating Profit 25 (38) (42) (38) 4

Other impairments 1 (19) 3 (1) (7)

PBT 26 (57) (39) (39) (3)

Taxes (6) (4) (6) (10) (6)

PAT (cont. ops) 20 (60) (44) (49) (9)

PAT (discount. ops) 24 (200) 20 (100) 31

Minorities (10) (5) (10) (7) (9)

PAT 34 (265) (35) (156) 13


Greece

Regional P&L: Greece, SEE & other

Appendix II

SEE & Other

€ m 1Q18 4Q17 3Q17 2Q17 1Q17

NII 269 302 310 338 343

Net fees 57 60 51 53 54

Core Income 325 362 361 391 397

Trading & other income 22 20 (39) (29) 41

Income 347 381 322 362 438




Provisions (121) (189) (151) (199) (232)

Operating Profit 13 (36) (48) (48) (5)

Other impairments 1 (16) 4 (1) (7)

PBT 14 (52) (44) (49) (11)

Taxes (4) (3) (4) (8) (5)

PAT (cont. ops) 10 (55) (49) (57) (16)

PAT (discount. ops) 25 17 18 21 13

Minorities (9) (4) (10) (7) (9)

PAT 26 (43) (40) (42) 12

€ m 1Q18 4Q17 3Q17 2Q17 1Q17

NII 20 22 24 23 24

Net fees 6 6 6 5 6

Core Income 26 27 29 29 29

Trading & other income 3 2 0 1 (1)

Income 29 29 29 30 28




Provisions 1 (11) (4) (0) (1)

Operating Profit 12 (2) 6 11 9

Other impairments (0) (3) (0) (1) (0)

PBT 12 (5) 6 10 9

Taxes (1) (0) (1) (2) (2)

PAT (cont. ops) 11 (5) 4 8 7

.


Name Abbreviation Definition

Common Equity / Book Value BVEquity attributable to NBG shareholders less minorities (non-controlling interests) and contingent convertible

securities (CoCos)

Common Equity Tier 1 Ratio Fully

LoadedCET1 ratio, CRD IV FL

CET1 capital as defined by Regulation No 575/2013, with the application of the regulatory transitional

arrangements for IFRS9 impact (for 1Q.18) over RWAs

Core Deposits - Consists of current, sight and other deposits, as well as savings accounts, and exclude repos and time deposits

Core Income CI Net Interest Income (“NII”) + Net fee and commission income + Earned premia net of claims and commissions

Core Operating Result (Profit / (Loss)) - Core income less operating expenses and provisions (credit provisions and other impairment charges)

Core Operating Margin - Core operating profit / (loss) annualized over average net loans

Core Pre-Provision Income Core PPI Core Income less operating expenses, before provisions (credit provisions and other impairment charges)

Core Pre-Provision Margin Core PPI margin Core PPI annualized over average net loans

Cost of Risk / Provisioning Rate CoR Credit provisions of the period annualized over average net loans

Cost-to-Core Income Ratio C:CI Operating expenses over core Income

Cost-to-Income Ratio C:I Operating expenses over total income

Deposit Yields - Annualized interest expense on deposits over deposit balances

Forborne -Exposures for which forbearance measures have been extended according to EBA ITS technical standards on

Forbearance and Non-Performing Exposures

Forborne Non-Performing Exposures FNPEsExposures with forbearance measures that meet the criteria to be considered as non performing according to EBA

ITS technical standards on Forbearance and Non-Performing Exposures

Forborne Performing Exposures FPEs

Exposures with forbearance measures that do not meet the criteria to be considered as non performing according

to EBA ITS technical standards on Forbearance and Non-Performing Exposures and forborne exposures under

probation period

Funding cost/Cost of funding -The blended cost of deposits, ECB refinancing, repo transactions, ELA funding (until late November 2017), as well

as covered bonds and securitization transactions

Gross Loans - Loans and advances to customers before allowance for impairment

Loan Yield - Annualized loan interest income over gross performing loan balances

Loans-to-Deposits Ratio L:D Net loans over total deposits, period end

Appendix II

Definition of financial data & ratios used


Name Abbreviation DefinitionNet Interest Margin NIM NII annualized over average interest earning assets

Net Loans - Loans and advances to customers

Net Profit / (Loss) - Profit / (loss) for the period attributable to NBG equity shareholders

Non-Performing Exposures NPEs

Non-performing exposures are defined according to EBA ITS technical standards on Forbearance and Non-

Performing Exposures as exposures that satisfy either or both of the following criteria:

a) Material exposures which are more than 90 days past due

b) The debtor is assessed as unlikely to pay its credit obligations in full without realization of collateral, regardless

of the existence of any past due amount or of the number of days past due.

Non-Performing Exposures Coverage Ratio NPE coverage Stock of provisions (allowance for impairment for loans and advances to customers) over non-performing

exposures, excluding loans mandatorily classified as FVTPL,period end

Non-Performing Exposures Ratio NPE ratio Non-performing exposures over gross loans, period end

Non-Performing Loans NPLs Loans and advances to customers in arrears for 90 days or more

90 Days Past Due Coverage Ratio 90dpd coverage Stock of provisions over loans and advances to customers in arrears for 90 days or more excluding loans

mandatorily classified as FVTPL, period end

90 Days Past Due Formation 90dpd formationNet increase / (decrease) of loans and advances to customers in arrears for 90 days or more, before write-offs and

after restructurings

90 Days Past Due Ratio 90dpd ratio Loans and advances to customers in arrears for 90 days or more over gross loans, period end

Operating Expenses OpEx, costsPersonnel expenses + General, administrative and other operating expenses (“G&As”) + Depreciation and

amortisation on investment property, property & equipment and software & other intangible assets

Operating Profit / (Loss) - Total income less operating expenses and provisions (credit provisions and other impairment charges)

Pre-Provision Income PPI Total income less operating expenses, before provisions (credit provisions and other impairment charges)

Profit / (loss) after tax PAT (cont. ops) Profit / (loss) for the period from continuing operations

Risk Weighted Assets RWAsAssets and off-balance-sheet exposures, weighted according to risk factors based on Regulation (EU) No

575/2013

Tangible Equity / Book Value TBV Common equity less goodwill & intangibles (goodwill, software and other intangible assets)

Total deposits - Due to customers

Appendix II

Definition of financial data & ratios used

This presentation is not an offer to buy or sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security or instrument or to participate in any trading strategy. No part of

this presentation may be construed as constituting investment advice or recommendation to enter into any transaction. No representation or warranty is given with

respect to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained in this presentation, and no claim is made that any future to transact any securities will

conform to any terms that may be contained herein. Before entering into any transaction, investors should determine any economic risks and benefits, as well as

any legal, tax, accounting consequences of doing so, as well as their ability to assume such risks, without reliance on the information contained in this presentation.

Paul Mylonas

Acting CEO

+30210 334 1521

[email protected]

Greg Papagrigoris

Head of IR

+30210 334 2310

[email protected]

Ioannis Kyriakopoulos

Group CFO

+30210 334 3051

[email protected]

Maria Kanellopoulou

Investor Relations

+30210 334 1537

[email protected]

[email protected]

Ilias Katsikalis

Investor Relations

+30210 334 1401

[email protected]

[email protected]

mailto:[email protected]







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