Corridor Characteristics Socio-Economics Technical Memorandum

FINALI‐15 Corridor System Characteristics:

Socioeconomics

March 2012

F i n a l T e c h n i c a l M e m o r a n d u m

I-15 Corridor System Master Plan

Corridor System Characteristics: Socioeconomics

Prepared for:

I-15 Mobility Alliance March 2012

Prepared By:

Jennifer Daigre, PE

Contributors:

Candice Hein Dan Andersen

Loren Bloomberg, PE Bardia Nezhati, PE, PTOE

Robert E. Lang, Ph.D. Barry Banks- WSA David Hurst- WSA

Alex Barnum- WSA

Table of Contents

I-15 Corridor ......................................................................................................................................... 1

I-15 Mobility Alliance and Corridor System Master Plan ................................................ 2 Study Area ............................................................................................................................... 2 Corridor System Characteristics Technical Memoranda .................................................. 4

Socioeconomic Characteristics ........................................................................................................... 5 San Diego Region ................................................................................................................... 7 Southern California Region ................................................................................................. 11 Las Vegas Region .................................................................................................................. 13 Phoenix Region ..................................................................................................................... 14 Salt Lake Region ................................................................................................................... 16 Economic Development (Future Growth Trends, Goods Movement) ......................... 21

List of Acronyms ............................................................................................................................... 24 Works Cited ........................................................................................................................................ 28

List of Exhibits Exhibit 1: Corridors of the Future ..................................................................................................... 1 Exhibit 2: Study Area .......................................................................................................................... 3 Exhibit 3: Population by Mega-Region, 2009 and 2050 .................................................................. 7 Exhibit 4: Employment by Mega-Region, 2009 and 2050 ............................................................... 7 Exhibit 5: San Diego Region Population and Employment Growth ............................................ 8 Exhibit 6: San Diego Population Growth Rate ................................................................................ 8 Exhibit 7: San Diego Region 2050 Population Densities ................................................................ 9 Exhibit 8: San Diego Region 2050 Employment Densities ........................................................... 10 Exhibit 9: Southern California Region Population and Employment ........................................ 11 Exhibit 10: Southern California Region Population Increase, 2003 - 2035 ................................. 12 Exhibit 11: Southern California Region Employment Increase, 2003 - 2035 ............................. 12 Exhibit 12: Southern Nevada Population and Employment Growth ........................................ 13 Exhibit 13: Clark County Population and Employment Growth ............................................... 14 Exhibit 14: Maricopa County Population and Employment Growth ........................................ 15 Exhibit 15: Maricopa County Population Density 2050 ............................................................... 15 Exhibit 16: Maricopa County Employment Density 2050 ............................................................ 16 Exhibit 17: Wasatch Front Region Population and Employment ............................................... 17 Exhibit 18: Utah Population by Multi-County District ................................................................ 17 Exhibit 19: Wasatch Front Urban Area 2030 .................................................................................. 19 Exhibit 20: Wasatch Front Urban Area 2030 .................................................................................. 19 Exhibit 21: Washington County Population and Employment Growth .................................... 20 Exhibit 22: Unemployment Rates for California, Nevada, Arizona and Utah ......................... 22 Exhibit 23: San Pedro Bay Ports Yearly Container Totals in TEUs ............................................. 23

List of Tables

Table 1: Population along I-15 Corridor ........................................................................................... 6 Table 2: U.S. Economic Indicators ................................................................................................... 21

I-15CSMP_CORRCHAR_SOCIO-ECONOMICS 1

I-15 Corridor Interstate 15 (I-15) is a major transcontinental north-south highway in the western United States that extends more than 1,470 miles through the states of California, Nevada, Arizona, Utah, Idaho, and Montana. It is the principal artery linking coastal ports to inland population centers and connects with the nation’s three transcontinental east-west highways: I-10, I-80, and I-90. The I-15 transportation corridor links the San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos Metropolitan area with the Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario Metropolitan area, and several other suburban communities between them. Due to rapid population growth in recent years in the California Mojave Desert region, I-15 has become a heavily traveled commuter route between metropolitan Southern California and the communities of Victorville, Barstow, Hesperia, Apple Valley and Adelanto. It is also the primary access route between Southern California and Las Vegas with more than 8 million people driving this corridor annually. In Nevada, I-15 is the single most important tourism corridor and is essential for southern Nevada’s economy. More than 80 percent of southern Nevada’s goods movement is served by I-15. In Utah, I-15 is the primary transportation corridor, connecting the major population centers and serving the majority of the residents.

I-15 was designated a Corridor of the Future in 2007 between the southern terminus in San Diego, California to Northern Utah because of its regional significance for transportation of goods and people (see Exhibit 1).

Exhibit 1: Corridors of the Future

Source: FHWA, US Department of Transportation - Corridors of the Future Program


I-15 Mobility Alliance and Corridor System Master Plan The Departments of Transportation (DOTs) in California, Nevada, Arizona, and Utah have formed a cooperative alliance (I-15 Mobility Alliance) to develop a long-range multimodal transportation system master plan that will address current and future mobility needs along the I-15 corridor from Southern California to Northern Utah. This is an alliance of public and private agencies and users of the I-15 corridor working together to enhance the movement of people, freight and other commodities for decades to come.

The I-15 Corridor System Master Plan (Master Plan) contains multimodal solutions to mobility challenges within the corridor including moving more people and goods via rail, air, and transit in addition to potential highway and local/regional road network improvements. This Master Plan will also consider sustainable transportation solutions that integrate energy, data, and communications within the corridor.

Study Area The I-15 Corridor System Master Plan study includes involvement from the DOTs in California, Nevada, Arizona, and Utah as well as key stakeholders along the corridor. The study area includes the I-15 corridor from the southern terminus in San Diego, California to the Utah/Idaho border. This portion of the facility covers approximately 840 miles: 290 miles in California, 120 miles in Nevada, 30 miles in Arizona, and 400 miles in Utah. The route segment runs through several major metropolitan areas including San Diego, the Inland Empire, Las Vegas, and Salt Lake City, and connects with I-5, I-8, I-10, and I-40 in California, and I-70, I-80, and I-84 in Utah—all major interstates. Exhibit 2 is a map of the study area.

Mission Statement The I-15 Mobility Alliance transcends traditional transportation thinking by advancing innovation, long-range planning, investment and implementation of multimodal systems; including not only increased mobility of people and goods through highways, freight rail, transit and high speed passenger rail, but also forward-looking technologies for the transport of energy, data and communications.

The I-15 Corridor is a vital linkage in the economy not only of the western US but of the entire nation. Projected increases in commodity flows from the western US and Mexican ports and population growth will result in expanded segments of I-15 experiencing severe congestion thus impeding commerce, hindering mobility, and degrading the quality-of-life of the people served by the corridor.

The mission of the Alliance and its members is to develop, in partnership with public and private sectors, a comprehensive, multimodal Master Plan for the I-15 Corridor, to prioritize projects and policies of inter-regional significance, to seek financial and other resources necessary for the implementation of the Master Plan, and to devise appropriate governance mechanisms for the on-going efficient and effective construction, operations, and maintenance of the Corridor on a more sustainable basis.

Vision Statement I-15 Mobility Alliance is a strategic partnership that brings together government, business and community stakeholders in a shared vision to plan, develop, finance, construct and manage a safer, more efficient and reliable multimodal transportation corridor.


Exhibit 2: Study Area


Corridor System Characteristics Technical Memoranda These technical memoranda provide an overview of the regional and corridor characteristics, including details of the mega-regions along the corridor (San Diego, Southern California, Las Vegas, Phoenix and Salt Lake) and how they are interconnected. They also provide descriptions of the existing and future conditions of various modes along the corridor. There are six sections including:

Socioeconomic Characteristics – provides a detailed discussion of the population and employment growth for each mega-region.

Highways – includes a description of existing and future I-15 corridor characteristics such as average daily traffic (ADT) volumes, number of lanes, posted speeds, major interchanges, safety and ITS elements.

Passenger Rail – provides a description of existing and future passenger rail systems including information on future high speed rail projects.

Aviation - contains information on the airports affecting I-15 in each mega-region along the corridor.

ITS – provides an overview of existing ITS elements and potential future highway technologies applicable to the I-15 corridor.

Bicycling – provides an overview of existing and future bicycle route systems including the United States Bicycle Route System (USBRS).


Socioeconomic Characteristics The I-15 Corridor traverses through some of the most densely populated and fastest growing counties in the United States (US), including the urban and/or suburban areas of San Diego, Los Angeles, Las Vegas, Salt Lake City. According to the US Census Bureau, the total population of the counties located within 100 miles of the I-15 Corridor was roughly 24 million in 2009, which represents a 13 percent increase from the 2000 census. During this period, total US population increased by about 9 percent. Population in the counties that are located within 100 miles of the I-15 Corridor accounted for about 7.7 percent of total US population in 2009.

According to the US Census Bureau, Nevada, Arizona and Utah were the fastest growing states in the US with population increases of 25 to 32 percent from the 2000 census. Based on forecast data, it is anticipated that these states within the I-15 Corridor will continue to grow at relatively high rates as shown in Table 1. In particular, Clark County’s population reached 1.9 million in 2009 and is expected to more than double by 2050. Table 1-1 includes counties that are within 100 miles of I-15. Population in the counties located within 100 miles of the I-15 Corridor is projected to account for over 10% of the total US population in 2050 with over 43 million people.

Five mega-regions were evaluated along the I-15 Corridor between Southern California and Northern Utah. These mega-regions include the San Diego, Southern California, Las Vegas, Phoenix and Salt Lake regions. Population and employment characteristics of the five mega-regions are identified in this section. Future population and employment estimates are also provided based on projections developed by each region.

Estimates of the existing population and employment in the study area were based on 2009 data from the United States Census Bureau and the United States Bureau of Labor Statistics. Future 2050 projections were based on data from various sources available for each mega-region. Exhibit 3 and Exhibit 4 provide a summary of existing 2009 and future 2050 projections of population and employment in each mega-region. A detailed discussion of the population and employment growth for each mega-region is provided in the subsections below.


Table 1: Population along I‐15 Corridor

Population

2000 2009 2050

California

San Diego 2,813,833 3,185,642 4,384,867

Riverside 1,545,387 2,125,440 4,730,922

San Bernardino 1,709,434 2,017,673 3,662,193

Los Angeles 9,519,331 9,848,011 12,920,082

Orange 2,846,297 3,026,786 3,788,186

Ventura 753,186 802,983 1,067,227

Kern 661,645 807,407 2,106,024

Imperial 142,361 166,874 357,579

Inyo* 17,945 17,293 17,616

Nevada

Clark 1,375,765 1,902,834 3,925,800

Lincoln* 4,165 4,794 9,480*

Nye* 32,485 44,234 222,490*

Arizona

Mohave 155,032 194,825 400,695

Coconino 116,318 129,849 198,149

Utah

Washington 90,354 137,473 709,674

Iron 33,779 45,280 137,240

Beaver 6,005 6,267 21,971

Millard 12,405 12,276 28,538

Juab 8,238 10,244 29,728

Utah 368,536 545,307 1,261,653

Salt Lake 898,387 1,034,989 1,853,891

Davis 238,994 300,827 424,318

Weber 196,533 231,834 429,628

Box Elder 42,745 49,902 102,910

Kane 6,046 6,601 14,267

Garfield 4,735 4,625 8,738

Piute 1,435 1,431 2,035

Sevier 18,842 19,976 29,828

Sanpete 22,763 25,946 45,624

Wasatch 15,215 21,600 86,393

Summit 29,736 36,969 131,594

Morgan 7,129 8,908 48,662

Rich 1,961 2,160 3,473

Cache 91,391 115,269 274,527

Tooele 40,735 58,335 192,007

Duchesne 14,371 17,948 24,586

Carbon 20,425 19,989 28,275

Emery 10,962 10,629 13,313

Total I-15 Corridor 23,838,256 26,950,402 43,462,213

Total US 281,421,906 307,006,550 419,853,587 % I-15 Corridor/US 8.5% 8.8% 10.4%

* Calculated 2050 population based on annual growth rate from 2000 to 2009 census data for Inyo, Lincoln & Nye Counties Sources: US Census Bureau, SANDAG, CA Department of Finance, Kern COG, UNLV Center for Business and Economic Research, AZ Department of Economic Security, and Utah Governor’s Office of Planning and Budget


Exhibit 3: Population by Mega‐Region, 2009 and 2050

Sources: US Census Bureau, SANDAG, SCAG, Kern COG, UNLV, MAG, and Utah Governor’s Office of Planning and Budget

Exhibit 4: Employment by Mega‐Region, 2009 and 2050

Sources: Existing data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, SCAG, SANDAG, Kern COG, UNLV, MAG, and Utah Governor’s Office of Planning and Budget

San Diego Region

Population/Employment The San Diego region includes San Diego County, which is the second most populated county in the state of California after Los Angeles (US Census Bureau 2009). The San Diego Association of Governments (SANDAG) 2050 Regional Growth Forecast projects that between 2009 and 2030, the region will add about 680,000 more people and roughly half a million new jobs. Between 2009 and 2050 there will be approximately 1.2 million more people and approximately 670,000 new jobs (see Exhibit 5).

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Exhibit 5: San Diego Region Population and Employment Growth

Sources: US Bureau of Labor Statistics and SANDAG 2050 Regional Growth Forecast

The growth rate in the San Diego region is slowing, and that trend is expected to continue. Between 2000 and 2004 population growth in the region averaged about 46,000 persons per year. During the late 1980s the region was adding as many as 90,000 persons per year, an annual growth rate of three percent (SANDAG 2030). By the early-2020s, the annual growth rate is expected to fall below one percent. Surrounding counties are all growing at faster rates than San Diego. Growth along the I-15 Corridor from Escondido to Riverside County is expected to be higher than the San Diego regional average. By the year 2030, population growth and employment growth in the areas surrounding the I-15 Corridor are expected to reach 31% and 25%, respectively (Caltrans 2009). Exhibit 6 compares the SANDAG region’s historic and future growth rates to those of the nation. The growth rate reduced significantly during the recession years in the early 1990s and again in 2008 and 2009 during the most recent recession. Exhibit 7 and Exhibit 8 show the population and employment densities for the San Diego region in 2050.

Exhibit 6: San Diego Population Growth Rate

Source: SANDAG

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Exhibit 7: San Diego Region 2050 Population Densities

Source: SANDAG 2050 Regional Transportation Plan Draft, 2011


Exhibit 8: San Diego Region 2050 Employment Densities

Source: SANDAG 2050 Regional Transportation Plan Draft, 2011


Southern California Region

Population/Employment The Southern California region includes five counties: Kern, Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside, and San Bernardino Counties. Nearly half of all California residents live in this region and it is the second most populated area in the country. According to the US Census Bureau, in 2009 the region’s population had reached almost 18 million residents, having grown by 1.6 million residents (10 percent) from 16.2 million people in 2000. Kern Council of Governments (COG) is the metropolitan planning organization (MPO) for Kern County. Southern California Association of Governments (SCAG) MPO represents six counties including Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside and San Bernardino.

Based on the (SCAG 2008 Regional Transportation Plan, Los Angeles County accounted for 41 percent of the region’s growth between 2000 and 2007, adding 813,000 residents, while Riverside and San Bernardino Counties together added 804,000 residents. In terms of relative growth, the desert communities (Riverside and San Bernardino counties) are the fastest-growing areas in the region. Riverside County grew by 38 percent and San Bernardino County by 18 percent from 2000 to 2009 (US Census Bureau 2009). In 2050, the region is projected to grow by 7.4 million residents from 2009 with over 3.7 million new jobs. Los Angeles County is projected to add over 3 million people and 1.5 million new jobs and Riverside and San Bernardino Counties will add roughly 3.6 million people and 1.7 million new jobs combined. The projected population and employment growth by county between 2009 and 2050 is summarized in Exhibit 9.

Exhibit 9: Southern California Region Population and Employment Growth by County, 2009 – 2050

Source: US Census Bureau, US Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2008 SCAG RTP, SCAG, Kern Council of Governments RTP

According to SCAG, based on baseline data from 2008, the region will add 4 million people to reach over 21 million people by 2035. Supporting this population in 2035 will be a total of 9 million jobs with the addition of 1.7 million new jobs. Exhibit 10 and Exhibit 11 illustrate the projected increases in population and employment between 2003 and 2035 in the SCAG region.

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Exhibit 10: Southern California Region Population Increase, 2003 ‐ 2035

Source: 2008 SCAG RTP

Exhibit 11: Southern California Region Employment Increase, 2003 ‐ 2035

Source: 2008 SCAG RTP


Kern County According to the Kern Council of Governments’ 2011 Regional Transportation Plan, Kern County was one of the top six fastest growing counties in California between 2008 and 2009 and is California’s thirteenth most populated of 58 counties. The most recently adopted growth forecast from October 2009 projects population to increase by approximately 500,000 by 2035, and doubling to 1.7 million by 2050.

Kern County is one of the prime agricultural regions in the nation, linking goods to other counties and regions. Kern County is a leading agricultural producer, and a prominent producer of oil and other minerals which all rely heavily on bulk movement by truck, rail and pipeline. There is an increasing demand for freight transportation and trucking is the dominant mode of freight transport, accounting for 87 percent of outbound tonnage and 81 percent of inbound tonnage. The San Joaquin Valley is one of the largest generators of truck freight in the western US and these trucks use SR 58 and US 395 to access I-15.

Las Vegas Region

Population/Employment The Las Vegas region is located in southern Nevada and includes Clark County. From 1990 to 2006, Nevada had the fastest population growth rate in the nation. Even with the recent economic downturn, Las Vegas continues to be listed as one of the top 100 fastest growing areas in the country (US Census Bureau 2010). According to US Census Bureau 2009 data, Clark County has a population close to 2 million with a statewide population of approximately 2.7 million. Based on information from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Clark County had over 800,000 jobs in 2009. It is also one of the world’s most popular tourist destinations with 39 million visitors a year (NDOT 2008).

Exhibit 12 shows the population and employment history of Southern Nevada between 1990 and 2007 and projects population through 2035. The downturn between 2001 and 2003 was a function of the events of September 11, 2001 and the subsequent slowing down of the national economy (RTC 2009).

Exhibit 12: Southern Nevada Population and Employment Growth

Source: Southern Nevada RTC Regional Transportation Plan 2009-2030


Population forecasts from the University of Nevada, Las Vegas Center for Business and Economic Research (CBER) indicate that by 2050, the population and employment will be almost double what they are now for Clark County (see Exhibit 13).

Exhibit 13: Clark County Population and Employment Growth

Sources: US Census Bureau, US Bureau of Labor Statistics, UNLV CBER

Phoenix Region

Population/Employment A critical interstate connection is missing between Phoenix and Las Vegas. These two regions are the largest proximate metropolitan areas in the US not directly linked by an interstate. Phoenix was included as one of the mega-regions because the proposed future interstate will connect I-10 in Phoenix and I-15 in Las Vegas. In addition to passenger traffic, this highway would help move the enormous flow of goods expected from Mexican ports. A critical part of the proposed future interstate project, the Mike O’Callaghan – Pat Tillman Memorial Bridge (Colorado River Bridge), was completed in October 2010. (Lang, forthcoming)

Maricopa County is Arizona’s most heavily populated county and includes the City of Phoenix. Maricopa County has grown from a population of 1.5 million persons in 1980, to a population of 4 million in 2009 (US Census Bureau 2010). By 2030, Maricopa County is projected to double in population over the 2000 base population, with an anticipated total of 6.1 million people. This means that the region will experience a growth of approximately one million people during each decade. Maricopa County is projected to more than double its reported 2000 employment total with nearly 3.2 million new jobs in 2030 (MAG 2010). Between 2009 and 2050 there will be over 3.6 million more people and approximately 2.6 million new jobs (see Exhibit 14).

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Exhibit 14: Maricopa County Population and Employment Growth

Sources: US Census Bureau, US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Maricopa Association of Governments (MAG)

Exhibit 15 and Exhibit 16 illustrate the population and employment densities in Maricopa County in 2050.

Exhibit 15: Maricopa County Population Density 2050

Source: MAG 2007

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Exhibit 16: Maricopa County Employment Density 2050

Source: MAG 2007

Salt Lake Region

Population/Employment The Salt Lake region, also referred to as the Wasatch Front, is located along the Wasatch Mountain Range and includes four counties, Davis, Salt Lake, Utah and Weber. The Utah Governor’s Office of Planning and Budget (GOPB) projects the Salt Lake region will reach a population of nearly 4 million people in 2050, growing by 1.9 million people from 2009. Of the 2 million new jobs projected for the state from 2000 to 2050, 72.4%, or a total of 1.5 million jobs, are expected to be within Salt Lake, Utah, Davis, and Weber counties. The growth in Utah County is forecasted to be more robust than the other counties along the Wasatch Front with an annual average rate of increase of 2.3%. When compared to the total population for Weber, Davis, Salt Lake, and Utah counties, Utah County’s share increases from 26% in 2009 to 32% in 2050 and its share of total employment increases from 18% in 2009 to 28% in 2050 (see Exhibit 17).


Exhibit 17: Wasatch Front Region Population and Employment Growth by County, 2009‐2050

Sources: US Census Bureau, US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Utah Governor’s Office of Planning and Budget

Exhibit 18 shows the population history of Utah by multi-county district between 1940 and 2010 and projects population through 2060. The projected combined population of the Salt Lake region is expected to grow to approximately 4.4 million, 64% of the state total, by 2060.

Exhibit 18: Utah Population by Multi‐County District

Source: Utah Governor’s Office of Planning and Budget, 2008 Baseline Projections

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The Wasatch Front Urban Area is located in the northern part of Utah and encompasses the developed regions of Salt Lake, Davis and Weber Counties. The state Governor’s Office of Planning and Budget projects the combined population of this area to grow to over 2 million by 2030. Much of the growth is projected to occur in western Salt Lake County, northern Davis County, and western Weber County as shown in Exhibit 19. Due to limited land supply in Salt Lake and Davis Counties, the “build out” population may be reached by 2030 (WFRC 2007). Exhibit 20 shows the projected 2030 employment density for the Wasatch Front Urban Area.


Exhibit 19: Wasatch Front Urban Area 2030 Population Density

Source: Wasatch Front Regional Transportation Plan, 2007-2030

Exhibit 20: Wasatch Front Urban Area 2030 Employment Density

Source: Wasatch Front Regional Transportation Plan, 2007-2030


Washington County Although Washington County is not part of the Salt Lake region, it is the fifth largest county in the state of Utah, and has the highest projected annual growth rate in the state at 3.8% over the next 50 years (GOPB 2010). It is located on I-15 in the southwest corner of Utah, six miles from the Arizona state line. St. George is the largest city in the county which attracts over 2.5 million visitors annually (Dixie 2007). Washington County is projected to more than double its reported 2009 population total with over 400,000 people in 2030 (GOPB 2010). Between 2009 and 2050 there will be almost 600,000 more people and nearly 300,000 new jobs (see Exhibit 21).

Exhibit 21: Washington County Population and Employment Growth

Source: US Census Bureau, US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Utah Governor’s Office of Planning and Budget

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Economic Development (Future Growth Trends, Goods Movement) The U.S. economy experienced a deep recession beginning in 2008 through 2009. Employment has been falling for over two years and about 8.4 million nonfarm jobs have been lost, a new record. The nation’s unemployment rate rose to 10% in late 2009. However, there are several signs of an economic recovery starting in 2010 though some sectors will recover slower than others. Table 2 provides national economic indicators from 2004 through 2011 showing the deep recession as well as the recent projected upturn. (LAEDC 2010) The Los Angeles Economic Development Corporation (LAEDC) projects the nation’s unemployment rate, currently around 10%, will decline slowly, reaching the low-to-mid 9’s by the end of 2011.

Table 2: U.S. Economic Indicators

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009e 2010f 2011f

Real GDP 3.6 3.1 2.7 2.1 0.4 -2.4 2.6 3.1

Nonfarm Employment 1.1 1.7 1.8 1.1 -0.6 -4.3 -0.9 1

Unemployment Rate (%) 5.5 5.1 4.6 4.6 5.8 9.2 9.9 9.4

Consumer Price Index 2.7 3.4 3.2 2.9 3.8 -0.3 2.5 2.5

Federal Budget Balance (FY, $billions) -413 -318 -248 -162 -455 -1414 -1500 -1300

Note: Annual % change except where noted e = estimate f = forecast

Sources: US Bureau of Economic Analysis, US Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Office of Management and Budget; forecasts by LAEDC

In early 2010, California’s economy appeared to be improving, but employment continued to decline across the state, falling -4.5% in 2009 and the unemployment rate averaged 7.2%. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, over 2.2 million people were unemployed at the end of 2010 when the unemployment rate reached 12.5%, the second highest in the nation (BLS 2010). Only a few industries are starting to grow, but further improvement is expected in 2011 (LAEDC 2010).

Employment fell by -5.1% in Nevada during 2009 and the unemployment rate averaged 11.8%. At the end of 2010, nearly 200,000 people were unemployed in Nevada with an unemployment rate of 14.9%, the highest in the nation (BLS 2010). According to the Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation (DETR), over 190,000 people were unemployed in the state on average in 2010, with 73% of them in the Las Vegas area.

Arizona’s employment fell -3.2% in 2009 with the unemployment rate reaching 9.1%. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, about 300,000 people were unemployed at the end of 2010 with an unemployment rate of 9.6% (BLS 2010).

Utah had the lowest unemployment rate of the four states along the I-15 Corridor. Employment declined -4.9% in 2009 and the unemployment rate almost doubled, from 3.4% in 2008 to 6.5% in 2009. At the end of 2010, the unemployment rate was 7.5%, 2.1% lower than the US unemployment rate of 9.6%, with about 102,000 people unemployed (BLS 2010). According to the GOPB, there was an average of 102,300 unemployed people in the state of Utah in 2010. However, Utah’s economy is expected to gradually strengthen (GOPB 2010).


Unemployment rates from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics for California, Nevada, Arizona and Utah are shown in Exhibit 22.

Exhibit 22: Unemployment Rates for California, Nevada, Arizona and Utah

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

Employment Impacts of Transportation Projects

The economic impact of transportation investment is measured by the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) by the number of jobs supported per one billion dollars of federal investment. The impacts often assume that every one billion dollars of federal investment is combined with a twenty percent state investment to determine the total impact of the transportation investment. The term jobs supported is different than jobs created because in addition to the construction jobs created, there are indirect impacts on the materials suppliers and induced employment impacts with the increase in personal and private spending (CEA 2009). These factors are combined to determine the total number of jobs supported by federal transportation investment. The FHWA analysis methods have updated over time to refine the employment estimates and account for changes in the economic conditions. The most recent published estimation is from FHWA in 2007 which indicates that one billion dollars of federal investment would support 27,800 jobs. FHWA is in the process of developing an estimate for 2011, and based on the decreasing trend over the past several years and more recent economic data, it is anticipated that the 2011 estimate will be considerably lower than 2007 (FHWA 2011).

Goods Movement Due to a decline in global demand, world trade flows collapsed near the end of 2008 and then worsened over the first half of 2009. The Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach (POLA/POLB) were severely affected by this deterioration in global commerce. The number of loaded import containers handled at these two ports fell -17.6% and loaded export containers dropped -14.8%

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in 2009. The ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach maintained their top two rankings during 2009 based on the number of containers handled. The port of Los Angeles also remained the top port in the nation in 2009, with regards to total two-way trade valued at $197.2 billion, while the port of Long Beach was still ranked #9 with a value of $68.6 billion (LAEDC 2010).

Global trade will help lead the global economic recovery. Total container traffic at the San Pedro Bay ports increased by 2.3 million twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs) in 2010. Port shipping terminals moved a total of 14.1 million twenty-foot equivalent containers in 2010, a nearly 20 percent increase over 2009 as shown in Exhibit 23. This almost recovered the losses between 2008 and 2009 when the ports containerized cargo decreased by 2.5 million TEUs (POLB/POLA 2010). The developing nations of Asia will lead the overall recovery and will see the largest export and import growth. The advanced economies will also contribute to the overall recovery in trade as manufacturers and retailers restock inventories, which will lead to a renewal of Asian exports. The anticipated improvement in trade will positively impact both the Port of Long Beach and the Port of Los Angeles (LAEDC 2010).

Exhibit 23: San Pedro Bay Ports Yearly Container Totals in TEUs

Sources: Port of Long Beach and Port of Los Angeles

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List of Acronyms AADT Average Annual Daily Traffic

AADTT Average Annual Daily Truck Traffic

AAR American Association of Railroads

AASHTO American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials

ACI Airports Council International

ADT Average Daily Traffic

ADOT Arizona Department of Transportation

AFB Air Force Base

ARRA American Recovery and Reinvestment Act

ATM Active Traffic Management

ATRI American Transportation Research Institute

AVC Automated Vehicle Classification

AVI Automated Vehicle Identification

AZ Arizona

BNSF Burlington Northern Santa Fe

BTS Bureau of Transportation Statistics

BUR Bob Hope/ Burbank Airport

C2C Center to Center

CA California

CAD Computer Aided Dispatch

CALNEV Pipeline from Los Angeles to Las Vegas

Caltrans California Department of Transportation

CBER Center for Business and Economic Research

CCDOA Clark County Department of Aviation

CCTV Closed Circuit Television

CHP California Highway Patrol

CNSSTC California-Nevada Super Speed Train Commission

COG Council of Governments

CSX Class I Railroad Corporation

CVISN Commercial Vehicle Information Systems and Networks

CVO Commercial Vehicle Operations


DEIS Draft Environmental Impact Statement

DETR Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation

DMS Dynamic Message Sign

DOT Department of Transportation

DHL International Express Mail Service Company

DSRC Dedicated Short-Range Communications

ETC Electronic Toll Collection

EV Electronic Vehicle

FAA Federal Aviation Administration

FAF Freight Analysis Framework

FARS Fatality Analysis Reporting System

FAST Freeway and Arterial System of Transportation

FHWA Federal Highway Administration

FMCSA Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration

FRA Federal Railroad Administration

GAP Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacifico

GDP Gross Domestic Product

GOPB Governor’s Office of Planning and Budget

GVW Gross Vehicle Weight

HAR Highway Advisory Radio

HELP Heavy Vehicle Electronic License Plate

HNTB Architecture and Engineering Consulting Firm

HOS Hours of Service

HOT High-Occupancy Toll

HOV High-Occupancy Vehicle

HPMS Highway Performance Monitoring System

ITRP Integrated Transportation Reliability Program

ITS Intelligent Transportation System

LAEDC Los Angeles Economic Development Corporation

LAS Las Vegas McCarran International Airport

LAX Los Angeles International Airport

LCV Longer Combination Vehicle

LED Light-Emitting Diode


LGB Long Beach Airport

LNG Liquid Natural Gas

LOS Level of Service

LTL Less than truckload

MAG Maricopa Association of Governments

Maglev Magnetic Levitation

MIP March Inland Port Airport

MPO Metropolitan Planning Organization

MVMT Million Vehicle Miles Traveled

NDOT Nevada Department of Transportation

NextGen Next Generation Air Transportation System

NHPN National Highway Planning Network

NHTSA National Highway Traffic Safety Administration

NSTPRC National Surface Transportation Policy and Revenue Commission

NV Nevada

ONT Ontario International Airport

PHX Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport

PM Particulate matter

PMD Palmdale Regional Airport

POE Port of Entry

POLA Port of Los Angeles

POLB Port of Long Beach

PRWG Passenger Rail Working Group

PSP Palm Springs Airport

RFID Radio Frequency Identification

RITA Research and Innovative Technology Administration

RTC Regional Transportation Commission of Southern Nevada

RTP Regional Transportation Plan

RWIS Road Weather Information System

SAN San Diego International Airport

SANBAG San Bernardino Associated Governments

SANDAG San Diego Association of Governments

SBD San Bernardino International Airport


SDCRAA San Diego County Regional Airport Authority

SCAG Southern California Association of Governments

SCLA Southern California Logistics Airport

SLC Salt Lake City International Airport

SLCIA Salt Lake City International Airport

SLCDA Salt Lake City Department of Airports

SNA John Wayne/ Orange County Airport

SR State Route

TAF Terminal Area Forecast

TEA-21 Transportation Equity Act of the 21st Century

TEU Twenty-foot Equivalent Unit

TIM Traffic Incident Management

TL Truckload

TMC Traffic Management Center

TOC Traffic Operations Center

TTI Texas Transportation Institute

UDOT Utah Department of Transportation

UNEV Pipeline serving Southern Utah and Las Vegas

UNLV University of Nevada, Las Vegas

UP Union Pacific

UPS United Parcel Service

US United States

USBR United States Bicycle Route

USBRS United States Bicycle Route System

USDOE United States Department of Energy

USDOT United States Department of Transportation

UT Utah

UTA Utah Transit Authority

WFRC Wasatch Front Regional Council

WIM Weigh-In-Motion

WSA Wilbur Smith and Associates


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