Modeling Presence Only Data

Cory MerowYale University

Occurrence Models

Annual Precipitation

PresencesMaxent

Software

Predictions

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11.4

11.6

11.8

12.0

12.2

cold warm

Occ

urre

nce

cold warm

cold warm

Longitude

Latit

ude

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●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●

occu

rrenc

e pr

obab

ility

Protea punctatawet dry

Presence vs Background

PresencesMaxent

Software●

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●●●●●

11.4

11.6

11.8

12.0

12.2

Protea punctata

Background

Background Selection ●

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11.4

11.6

11.8

12.0

12.2

Maxent’s prediction

Likelihood,in case anyone asks…

Variation in Predictions for Different SettingsHigh

LowThis flexibility could be very good or very bad….

Variation in Predictions for Different Settings

This flexibility could be very good or very bad….

High

Low

Settings affect

predictions

Case Study – Mustards

InvasiveGarlic Mustard Alliaria petiolata

NativeTower MustardArabis glabra

Invasions require extrapolation

? Occurrence model

What we ‘know’ already…

Merow, et al. PNAS, 2017

Objectives

How will climate change affect invasion?

Are uninvaded regions suitable?

Merow, et al. PNAS, 2017