Jabavu Nkomo and Calvin AtewambaACPC Presentation to AGN
13 August 2012
African Climate Policy Centre Costs and Finance of Adaptation for Africa
African Climate Policy Centre Costs and Finance of Adaptation for Africa
Study Methodology Time Period
Region Sectors Estimates (US$ billion per annum)
Figures for Africa (US$ billion per annum)
World Bank (2006)
Accounting/ project methods, analysis of official flows exposed to climate risk, costs of “climate-proofing are assumed in the analysis
Short term Developing countries
All 9-41 0.3
Stern (2007) Update, with slight modification, of the World Bank study
Short term Developing countries
All 4-37
UNEP (2007) World Bank study, plus costing of targets for adapting poverty reduction programmes and strengthening disaster response of the system
2015 Developing countries
All 86-109
Oxfam (2007) World Bank study, plus slight modifications of cost estimates from NAPAs and NGO projects
Short term Developing countries
All 50+
African Climate Policy Centre Costs and Finance of Adaptation for Africa
Study Methodology Time Period
Region Sectors Estimates (US$ billion per annum)
Figures for Africa (US$ billion per annum)
UNFCCC (2007)
Markets/sectoral methods: Disaggregating the analysis by sector and world region
2030 Developing 5- Agriculture, water, health, costal zones, infrastructure
28-67
UNFCCC (2007)
Markets/sectoral methods: Disaggregating the analysis by sector and world region
2030 Global 5- Agriculture, water, health, costal zones, infrastructure
44-166 7.2-9.9
World Bank (2010)
Markets/sectoral methods: Disaggregating the analysis by sector and world region
2050 Global Agriculture, water, social, health, costal zones, infrastructure, Extreme weather events
70-100 18
Fankhauser and Schmidt-Traub (2010)
Accounting/ project methods, climate proofing the MDGs based on previous global estimates of adaptation costs, disaggregating the analysis by sector
2020 Africa Agriculture & nutrition, nutrition & school feeding, education, health, infrastructure, statistics, additional interventions
11-21 11-21
African Climate Policy Centre Costs and Finance of Adaptation for Africa
Sectors
UNFCCC (2007) World Bank (2010)
Global
National Centre for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), wettest scenario
Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO), driest
scenario
GlobalSub-Sahara
Africa Global Sub-Sahara AfricaInfrastructure
2 - 41 27.5 3.4 13,5 1.5
Water supply and flood protection 9 14.4 6.6 19.7 7.8
Agriculture, forestry, fisheries 7 2.6 1.12* 2.5 1.09*
Human health5 2 0.8 1.5 0.6
Coastal zones5 28.5 3.2** 27.6 3.2**
Extreme weather events - 6.7 2.49 6.5 2.59
Total28-67 81.5 17.61 71.2 16.78
African Climate Policy Centre Costs and Finance of Adaptation for Africa
Studies Regions/countriesSea level rise considered
Protection level (% of coastline protected)
% GDP or GNP or Annual protection cost (US$ million)
Tol, Fankhauser et al. (1998)
African Atlantic Coast
African Indian Ocean Coast1m
89%
0.25%
0.38%
Nicholls and Tol (2006)
Mozambique
Guinea-Bissau 20-35 cm by 2080
N/A0.1-0.8 % GDP
0-0.6% GDP
SEI (2009) Kenya0.17 - 1.26 m from 1995 to
2100Total
28-56 by 2030; 80 by 2050
African Climate Policy Centre Costs and Finance of Adaptation for Africa
Studies Regions/countriesSea level rise considered
Protection level (% of coastline protected)
Annual protection cost (US$ billion)
World Bank (2010)
Sub-Sahara Africa
5.9-27.3 cm by 2050 (average); max 40.2- 126.3
cm by 2100
Total 3.2
Nicholls (2007) Africa
8.9-9.1 cm by 2030 (average); max 44.4 – 52.7
cm by 2080
N/A 0.53 – 1.32
Tol (2002)Africa 1m 80% 0.92
Deke, Hooss et al. (2001)
Sub-Sahara Africa 1m Total 0.44
7African Climate Policy Centre Costs and Finance of Adaptation for Africa
African Climate Policy Centre Costs and Finance of Adaptation for Africa
Fund’s name Type Administered Area of focus Date Operational
Adaptation Fund (AF) Multilateral Adaptation Fund Board
Adaptation 2009
GEF Trust Fund – Climate Change focal area (GEF 4)
Multilateral The Global Environment Facility (GEF)
Adaptation, Mitigation- general
2006
GEF Trust Fund – Climate Change focal area (GEF 5)
Multilateral The Global Environment Facility (GEF)
Adaptation, Mitigation- general
2010
Global Climate Change Alliance (GCCA)
Multilateral The European Commission
Adaptation, Mitigation- general, Mitigation-REDD
2008
Green Climate Fund (GCF)
Multilateral GCF to be confirmed
Adaptation, Mitigation- general, Mitigation-REDD
Not yet operational
Indonesia Climate Change Trust Fund (ICCTF)
Multilateral Indonesia’s National Development Planning Agency
Adaptation, Mitigation- general, Mitigation-REDD
2010
African Climate Policy Centre Costs and Finance of Adaptation for Africa
Fund’s name Type Administered Area of focus Date Operational
International Climate Fund (ICF)
Bilateral Government of United Kingdom
Adaptation, Mitigation- general, Mitigation-REDD
2011
International Climate Initiative (ICI)
Bilateral Government of Germany
Adaptation, Mitigation- general, Mitigation-REDD
2008
Least Developed Countries Fund (LDCF)
Multilateral The Global Environment Facility (GEF)
Adaptation 2002
MDG Achievement Fund- Environment and Climate thematic window (MDG)
Multilateral UNDP Adaptation, Mitigation- general
2007
Pilot Program for Climate Resilience
Multilateral The World Bank Adaptation 2008
Special Climate Change Fund Multilateral The Global Environment Facility (GEF)
Adaptation 2002
Strategic Climate Fund (SCF) Multilateral The World Bank Adaptation, Mitigation- general, Mitigation-REDD
2008
Strategic Priority on Adaptation (SPA)
Multilateral The Global Environment Facility (GEF)
Adaptation 2004
African Climate Policy Centre Costs and Finance of Adaptation for Africa
Fund’s nameGlobal Sub-Sahara Africa
Pledged Deposited Approved Disbursed Approved Disbursed
Adaptation Fund (AF) 115.96 115.91 109.22 16.93
GEF Trust Fund – Climate Change focal area (GEF 4)
753.74 753.74 989.69 900.53 106.88 88.24
GEF Trust Fund – Climate Change focal area (GEF 5)
1,141 1,048.10 170.49 2.95
Global Climate Change Alliance (GCCA)
226.12 224.62 296.81 130.99 52
Green Climate Fund (GCF)
International Climate Fund (ICF)
4,640 1,318.20 231.44 0
African Climate Policy Centre Costs and Finance of Adaptation for Africa
Fund’s nameGlobal Sub-Sahara Africa
Pledged Deposited Approved Disbursed Approved Disbursed
International Climate Initiative (ICI)
851.28 851.28 655.25 0
Least Developed Countries Fund (LDCF)
396.24 349.73 180.32 115.04 90 60
MDG Achievement Fund- Environment and Climate thematic window (MDG)
89.5 89.5 89.52 86.27
Pilot Program for Climate Resilience (PPCR)
514 273.8 164.56 4.30 114 27
Special Climate Change Fund (SCCF)
216.55 170.65 125.17 91.6 20
Strategic Priority on Adaptation (SPA)
0 0 47.95 47.95
Total 8,963 5,204.34 3,066.7 1,402.07
African Climate Policy Centre Costs and Finance of Adaptation for Africa
African Climate Policy Centre Costs and Finance of Adaptation for Africa
African Climate Policy Centre Costs and Finance of Adaptation for Africa
Global Adaptation Finance Africa
Pledged Deposited Approved Disbursed
Adaptation Finance Disbursed
Annual costs of Adaptation
8,947.44 5,188.78 3,066.70 1,402.07 419.05 18,000-30,000
African Climate Policy Centre Costs and Finance of Adaptation for Africa
Source: AGF (2010)
African Climate Policy Centre Costs and Finance of Adaptation for Africa