Council of Graduate Schools PhD Completion Project: Preliminary Data Analysis Helen Frasier, Program...

July 13, 2005Council of Graduate Schools

PhD Completion Project:Preliminary Data Analysis

Helen Frasier, Program Manager, Best Practices Heath Brown, Director of Research and Policy Analysis

CGS Summer Technical WorkshopJuly 13, 2005Santa Fe, NM

July 13, 2005 Ph.D. Completion & Attrition: Preliminary Data Analysis

2

PhD Completion & Attrition

I. The CGS Database:Data Tools and Templates

& Demographic Characteristics


3

Data Tools and Templates

1. Completion Template

2. Attrition Template

3. Aggregate Demographic Completion Template (race/ethnicity, gender, citizenship)

4. Exit Survey Template

5. Pre-Project Assessment Survey


4

Completion Templates10-year and 7-year cohorts

Entering student

academic year cohort*

Number of entering doctoral students

Number of students who left program

after receving master's degree

Number of students

admitted to PhD

candidacy**

3 years

[ ≤ 3Years ]

4 years

[ > 3 ≤ 4 Years ]

5 years

[ > 4 ≤ 5 Years ]

6 years

[ > 5 ≤ 6 Years ]

7 years

[ > 6 ≤ 7 Years ]

8 years

[ > 7 ≤ 8 Years ]

9 years

[ > 8 ≤ 9 Years ]

10 years

[ > 9 ≤ 10 Years ]

1992-93

1993-94

1994-95

1995-96

1996-97

1997-98

1998-99

1999-2000

2000-01

2001-02

2002-03

2003-04

Totals

Of those admitted to PhD candidacy**:

Number who completed within given number of years after enrolling

Number who are still

enrolled after 10 years


5

Attrition Templates

After Enrollment

CohortCohort

Size

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wit

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and

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Un

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rew

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ut

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92-93

93-94

94-95

95-96

96-97

97-98

98-99

99-00

00-01

01-02

02-03

03-04

Year 1 [ ≤ 1 Year ] Year 2 [ > 1 ≤ 2 Years ] Year 3 [ > 2 ≤ 3 ] Year 4 [ > 3 ≤ 4 ] Year 5 [ > 4 ≤ 5 ]


6

Data Tools and Templates

1. Completion Template

2. Attrition Template

3. Aggregate Demographic Completion Template (race/ethnicity, gender, citizenship)

4. Exit Survey Template

5. Pre-Project Assessment Survey


7

10+ Programs

English (19) Mathematics (19) Physics (19) Chemistry (17) Psychology (17) Computer Sciences (16) History (16) Biology (12) Sociology (12) Political Science (10)


8

Entering Ph.D. Students by Broad Field1992 to 2003 Cohorts

Life Sciences15%

Phys Sci/ Math25%

Social Sciences21%

Humanities15%

Engineering24%


9

Entering Ph.D. Students by Race/Ethnicity and Citizenship1992 to 2003 Cohorts

Other, 10%

White, 40%

International, 41%

Black, 3%

AmIndian-AKNative, <1%

Hispanic, 2%

Asian American, 4%


10

Entering Ph.D. Students by Race/Ethnicity and Citizenship (SEM Fields vs. Social Sciences/Humanities)

Sciences, Engineering, and Mathematics (SEM)

White32%

Other10%

International51%

Hispanic1%

Black2%

AmIndian-AKNative<1%

Asian4%

Social Sciences and Humanities

White53%

Other10%

International26%

Hispanic3%

Black4%

Asian3%

AmIndian-AKNative1%


11

PhD Completion & Attrition

II. Preliminary Data

Trends


12

Candidacy

69.18% (193)—Default Definition “Successful completion of coursework and qualifying

examinations” 11.83% (33)—Definition “A”

“Successful completion of preliminary examinations and/or defense of the dissertation prospectus”

0.36% (1)—Definition “B” “Award of the master's degree signifies admission to doctoral

candidacy” 9.68% (27)—Definition “C”

Candidacy is not defined or granted by the institution 5.38% (15)—Definition “D”

Other


13

Master’s Requirements& Distinctions

65% (180)—Do not require a master’s 18% (49)—Require a master’s degree 18% (50)—Did not specify

4% (10)—Do not distinguish between those seeking a master's and those seeking a Ph.D.


14

Enrollment Distinctions

67% (186)—Have a continuous enrollment policy 88% (164)—Effective for all students 11% (21)—Effective for candidates <1% (1)—Did not indicate

22% (60)—Do not have a continuous enrollment policy

12% (33)—Did not specify


15

Cumulative 10-year Doctoral Completion Ratesfrom Original Cohorts by Broad Field

65.79%

46.54%

60.23%

54.65%

52.54%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year 10

Completion Year

Pe

rce

nt

Co

mp

lete

of

Ori

gin

al

Co

ho

rt

Engineering, n=94 cohorts Humanities, n=148 Life Sciences, n=134 PhysSci/Math, n=195 Social Sciences, n=154


16

Range of 10-year Ph.D. Completion Rates by Broad Field

23.33% 60.19%

26.88%

59.65%35.42%

62.83%

37.50% 77.38%

54.79% 84.52%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Percent Complete

Humanities

Social Sciences

PhySci/Math

Life Sciences

Engineering

Bro

ad F

ield

Median = 65.03%

Median = 57.87%

Median = 50.74%

Median = 55.45%

Median = 48.77%


17

Do Demographics Matter?


18

10-year Cumulative & Annual Ph.D. Completion by Racial/Ethnicity, All Fields from Cohort

59.56%

56.23%

55.81%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%


Completion Year

Per

cen

t C

om

ple

te o

f O

rig

inal

Co

ho

rt

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Annual Comp - Whites Annual Comp - All Minorities Annual Comp - UnderRep Minorities

Cumulative Comp - Whites Cumulative Comp - All Minorities Cumulative Comp - UnderRep Minorities


19

All Fields 10-year Cumulative Ph.D. Completion Original Cohort and Candidates by Sex

58.06%

55.74%

86.22%

83.31%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%


Completion Year

Per

cent

Com

plet

e

Males, Cohort, n=261 Females, Cohort, n=253 Males, Candidates, n=247 Females, Candidates, n=231


20

10-year Cumulative & Annual Ph.D. Completion U.S. vs. International, All Fields

59%

68%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%


Completion Year

Pe

rce

nt

Co

mp

lete

of

Ori

gin

al C

oh

ort

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

US Annual Completion Int'l Annual Completion US Cumulative Completion Int'l Cumulative Completion


21

Does Program Size Matter?


22

10-year Ph.D. Completion Ratesby Program Cohort Size

Cohorts: 64.97% (471) Small 26.48% (192) Medium 8.55% (62) Large

Students: 35.96% (3822) Small 37.95% (4033) Medium 26.09% (2773) Large

54.9

7%

54.4

5% 58.8

9%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%


Completion Year

Per

cen

t C

om

ple

te o

f O

rig

inal

Co

ho

rt

Small Cohort Medium Cohort Large Cohort


23

Do Early and Late Attrition

Differ By Field Area?


24

Early Ph.D. Attrition among 10-year CohortsAnnual Rates by Broad Field

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5

Attrition Year

Pe

rce

nt

Engineering, n=66 Humanities, n=114 Life Sciences, n=95 PhysSci/Math, n=133 Social Sciences, n=104


25

Late Ph.D. Attrition among 10-year CohortsAnnual Rates by Broad Field

0%

2%

4%

6%

Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year 10

Attrition Year

Pe

rce

nt

Engineering, n=66 Humanities, n=114 Life Sciences, n=95 PhysSci/Math, n=133 Social Sciences, n=104


26

Do Completion Rates

Change Over Time?


27

Life Sciences 7-yr vs. 10-yr Cumulative Completionfrom Original Cohort and Candidacy

59.31%

47.59%

85.91%

67.15%

50.09%

71.62%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%


Completion Year

Per

cent

Com

plet

e

10-yr Cohort, n=101 10-yr Candidates, n=92 7-yr Cohort, n=218 7-yr Candidates, n=199


28

III. Do Program and Policy

Interventions Matter?

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