Country Briefing:Japan
Yardeni Research, Inc.
July 20, 2021
Dr. Edward Yardeni516-972-7683
Debbie Johnson480-664-1333
Please visit our sites atwww.yardeni.comblog.yardeni.com
thinking outside the box
Table Of Contents Table Of ContentsTable Of Contents
July 20, 2021 / Japan www.yardeni.com
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Real vs. Nominal GDP 1Real GDP 2-3Industrial Production 4-5Key Machinery Orders 6Merchandise Trade 7-9Share of Japanese Exports 10Housing Starts 11Unemployment 12Wages 13Household Spending & Consumer Confidence 14Consumer Prices 15-16Monetary Policy 17Money 18-19Government Deficit & Debt 20National Debt 21Stocks 22Forex 23International Reserves 24US Capital Inflows: Japan 25Japan vs. US GDP & Yield 26-27Consumer Confidence 28Japan 29-30
82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 2460
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
JAPAN: GDP(trillion yen, saar)
Q1
GDPRealNominal
Source: Haver Analytics.
yardeni.com
Figure 1.
82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
Q1
JAPAN: GDP(yearly percent change)
Real (-1.5)Nominal (-1.6)
Source: Haver Analytics.
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Figure 2.
Real vs. Nominal GDP
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Figure 3.
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-30-25-20-15-10-505101520253035
-30-25-20-15-10-505
101520253035
Q1
REAL GDP: JAPAN(quarterly percent change, saar)
Total (-3.9)
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-22-19-16-13-10-7-4-125811
-22-19-16-13-10-7-4-1258
11
Q1
Domestic Demand (-3.1)
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-36-32-28-24-20-16-12-8-404812162024
-36-32-28-24-20-16-12-8-4048
12162024
Q1PrivateConsumption (-5.8)
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
Q1
Gross FixedCapital Formation (-2.7)
Source: Cabinet Office and Haver Analytics.
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Real GDP
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Figure 4.
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
Q1
REAL GDP: JAPAN(quarterly percent change, saar)
Private NonresidentialInvestment (-4.6)
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-100
-50
0
50
100
-100
-50
0
50
100
Q1
Exports of Goods& Services (9.2)
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
Q1
Imports of Goods& Services (16.5)
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24-10-8-6-4-202468101214161820
-10-8-6-4-202468
101214161820
Q1
GovernmentConsumption (-4.5)
Source: Cabinet Office and Haver Analytics.
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Real GDP
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2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 202270
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
Jul
JAPAN: INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION(2010=100)
Source: Ministry of Economy, Trade & Industry.
yardeni.com
Figure 5.
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 202070
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
Sep
JAPAN: INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION(2010=100)
Investment GoodsConsumer Goods
Source: Ministry of Economy, Trade & Industry.
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Figure 6.
Industrial Production
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2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 202050
75
100
125
150
175
50
75
100
125
150
175
Sep
JAPAN: INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION(2010=100)
Investment Goods:Capital Goods
Capital GoodsEx TransportationConstruction
Source: Ministry of Economy, Trade & Industry.
yardeni.com
Figure 7.
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 202050
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
Sep
JAPAN: INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION(2010=100)
Consumer Goods:Durable GoodsNondurable Goods
Source: Ministry of Economy, Trade & Industry.
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Figure 8.
Industrial Production
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95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24550
650
750
850
950
1050
1150
1250
1350
550
650
750
850
950
1050
1150
1250
1350
May
JAPAN: KEY PRIVATE MACHINE ORDERS*(billion yen, sa)
yardeni.com
* Excludes volatile ships and electric power (headline series).Source: Cabinet Office.
Figure 9.
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
May
JAPAN: KEY PRIVATE MACHINE ORDERS*(yearly percent change)
yardeni.com
* Excludes volatile ships and electric power (headline series).Source: Cabinet Office.
Figure 10.
Key Machinery Orders
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Figure 11.
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
May
JAPAN: MERCHANDISE TRADE BALANCE(trillion yen, saar)
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 202430
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Jun
(trillion yen, saar)
ExportsImports
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
Jun
Source: Ministry of Finance and Japan Tariff Association.
yardeni.com
(yearly percent change)
ExportsImports
Merchandise Trade
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2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 202412
18
24
30
36
42
48
12
18
24
30
36
42
48
MayJAPAN: MERCHANDISE TRADE WITH ASIA(trillion yen, annualized, 6-ma, nsa)
Exports ToImports From
Source: Ministry of Finance/Japan Tariff Association.
yardeni.com
Figure 12.
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 20242
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
May
May
JAPAN: MERCHANDISE TRADE WITH CHINA(trillion yen, annualized, 6-ma, nsa)
Exports ToImports From
Source: Ministry of Finance/Japan Tariff Association.
yardeni.com
Figure 13.
Merchandise Trade
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2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 20244
6
8
10
12
14
4
6
8
10
12
14
May
JAPAN: MERCHANDISE TRADE WITH EU(trillion yen, annualized, 6-ma, nsa)
Exports ToImports From
Source: Ministry of Finance/Japan Tariff Association.
yardeni.com
Figure 14.
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 20245
7
9
11
13
15
17
19
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
19
May
JAPAN: MERCHANDISE TRADE WITH US(trillion yen, annualized, 6-ma, nsa)
Exports ToImports From
Source: Ministry of Finance/Japan Tariff Association.
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Figure 15.
Merchandise Trade
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90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 240
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
May
SHARE OF JAPANESE EXPORTS(percent based on 12-month sum)
United States (18.2)China (22.5)
Western Europe (11.0)
Source: Ministry of Finance/Japan Tariff Association.
yardeni.com
Figure 16.
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 2442
44
46
48
50
52
54
56
42
44
46
48
50
52
54
56
May
SHARE OF JAPANESE EXPORTS(percent based on 12-month sum)
Rest of World*
* Total less China, US, and Western Europe.Source: Ministry of Finance and Japan Tariff Association.
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Figure 17.
Share of Japanese Exports
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2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024.6
.7
.8
.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
.6
.7
.8
.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
May
JAPAN: HOUSING STARTS(million units, saar)
Source: Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, and Transport.
yardeni.com
Figure 18.
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024-50
-25
0
25
50
75
-50
-25
0
25
50
75
May
JAPAN: HOUSING STARTS(yearly percent change)
Source: Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, and Transport.
yardeni.com
Figure 19.
Housing Starts
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90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 241.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
May
JAPAN: UNEMPLOYMENT RATE(percent)
Source: Haver Analytics.
yardeni.com
Figure 20.
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 241.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
May
JAPAN: UNEMPLOYMENT(millions, sa)
Source: Haver Analytics.
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Figure 21.
Unemployment
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95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24250
255
260
265
270
275
280
285
290
295
300
305
250
255
260
265
270
275
280
285
290
295
300
305
May
JAPAN: REAL CONTRACTUAL EARNINGSPER EMPLOYEE PER MONTH(thousand yen)
NominalReal*
yardeni.com
* Deflated by CPI.Source: Ministry of Health, Labour & Welfare.
Figure 22.
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24-4.0
-3.5
-3.0
-2.5
-2.0
-1.5
-1.0
-.5
.0
.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
-4.0
-3.5
-3.0
-2.5
-2.0
-1.5
-1.0
-.5
.0
.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
May
JAPAN: REAL CONTRACTUAL EARNINGSPER EMPLOYEE PER MONTH(yearly percent change) Nominal (1.9)
Real* (1.9)
yardeni.com
* Deflated by CPI.Source: Ministry of Health, Labour & Welfare.
Figure 23.
Wages
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2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025-20
-10
0
10
20
-20
-10
0
10
20
May
JAPAN: HOUSEHOLD SPENDING*(yearly percent change)
Total (11.6)
yardeni.com
* Family Income & Expenditure Survey: Average living expenditure per household (including agricutural, forestry, and fisheries households).Source: Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications.
Figure 24.
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 202410
20
30
40
50
60
10
20
30
40
50
60
Jun
JAPAN: CONSUMER CONFIDENCE(50 + better, sa)
Total (37.4)OverallLivelihood (38.6)Income Growth (37.6)Employment (35.0)Willingness to BuyDurable Goods (38.4)
yardeni.com
Source: Cabinet Office of Japan.
Figure 25.
Household Spending & Consumer Confidence
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Figure 26.
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
Jun
JAPAN: CONSUMER PRICE INDEX(yearly percent change)
Total (0.2)Excluding Food & Energy (-0.3)
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-4
-2
0
2
4
6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
Jun
Food & Beverages (0.1)
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-.75
-.50
-.25
.00
.25
.50
.75
1.00
-.75
-.50
-.25
.00
.25
.50
.75
1.00
JunHousing (0.7)
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-10
-5
0
5
10
-10
-5
0
5
10
Jun
Fuel, Light,and Water Charges (0.6)
Source: Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications.
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Consumer Prices
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Figure 27.
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
Jun
JAPAN: CONSUMER PRICE INDEX(yearly percent change)
Furniture & HouseholdUtensils (1.6)
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
Jun
Clothes &Footwear (0.4)
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-2
0
2
4
6
-2
0
2
4
6
Jun
Medical Care (-0.2)
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-8
-4
0
4
8
-8
-4
0
4
8
Jun
Transportation &Communication (-1.7)
Source: Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications.
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Consumer Prices
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89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
Z
7/16
JAPAN: INTEREST RATES(percent, weekly)
10/2
10-YearGovernmentBond Yield (0.02)
Call Rate: UncollateralizedOvernight (-0.06)
Z = Zero Interest Rate Policy.Source: Bank of Japan.
yardeni.com
Figure 28.
89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 221.95
101.95
201.95
301.95
401.95501.95
1.95
101.95
201.95
301.95
401.95501.95
Z
Jun
Note: Blue shade is Quantitative Easing Policy.Z = Zero Interest Rate Policy.
JAPAN: RESERVEBALANCES AT BOJ(trillion yen, reserve adjusted,ratio scale)
yard
eni.c
om
Source: Bank of Japan.
Figure 29.
Monetary Policy
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89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 2230
90
150
210
270
330
390
450
510
570
630
690
30
90
150
210
270
330
390
450
510
570
630
690
Z
JAPAN: MONETARY BASE*(trillion yen, sa, average outstanding)
Jun
* Adjusted for change in reserve requirements.
Source: Bank of Japan.Note: Blue shade is Quantitative Easing Policy.Z = Zero Interest Rate Policy.
yardeni.com
Figure 30.
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022650
700
750
800
850
900
950
1000
1050
1100
1150
1200
1250
650
700
750
800
850
900
950
1000
1050
1100
1150
1200
1250
Jun
JAPAN: NEW M2*(trillion yen, sa)
* New M2 excludes: cash and deposits held by securities companies and Tanshi companies, nonresident deposits, and cash held by the Japan Post Bank.Source: Bank of Japan.
yardeni.com
Figure 31.
Money
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89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Z
Jun
JAPAN: M2 PLUS CDs*(yearly percent change)
M2 Plus CDS (5.9)
* In yen.Note: Blue shade is Quantitative Easing Policy.
Z = Zero Interest Rate Policy.
Source: Bank of Japan.
yardeni.com
Figure 32.
89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 223.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
Jun
Z
Note: Blue shade is Quantitative Easing Policy.Z = Zero Interest Rate Policy
JAPAN: AVERAGE LOANSOUTSTANDING ATTOTAL DOMESTIC BANKS(trillion yen)
yardeni.com
Source: Haver Analytics.
Figure 33.
Money
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80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 2450
250
450
650
850
1050
12501450
50
250
450
650
850
1050
12501450
JAPAN: TOTAL NATIONAL GOVERNMENT DEBT(trillion yen, ratio scale)
May
Source: Bank of Japan.
yard
eni.c
om
Figure 34.
80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 240
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
225
250
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
225
250
JAPAN: TOTAL NATIONAL GOVERNMENT DEBT(as a percent of nominal GDP) Q1
Source: Bank of Japan.
yard
eni.c
om
Figure 35.
Government Deficit & Debt
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80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-50
0
50
100
150
-50
0
50
100
150
May
JAPAN: TOTAL NATIONAL GOVERNMENT DEBT(yearly change, trillion yen)
Source: Bank of Japan.
yardeni.com
Figure 36.
87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-5
0
5
10
15
20
-5
0
5
10
15
20
May
JAPAN: TOTAL NATIONAL GOVERNMENT DEBTTIMES GOVERNMENT BOND YIELD/100(trillion yen)
Source: Bank of Japan.
yardeni.com
Figure 37.
National Debt
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89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 215000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
7/20
Z
Blue shade is Quantitative Easing Policy.Z = Zero Interest Rate Policy
JAPAN: NIKKEISTOCK PRICE INDEX
Source: Reuters America, Inc.
yardeni.com
Figure 38.
89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 210
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
7/16
ZJAPAN: TOKYO BANK STOCKPRICE INDEX(1992=1000)
Source: Haver Analytics.Blue shade is Quantitative Easing Policy.Z = Zero Interest Rate Policy
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Figure 39.
Stocks
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89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21160
150
140
130
120
110
100
90
80
70
60
160
150
140
130
120
110
100
90
80
70
60
7/20
ZJAPAN: YEN/US DOLLAR(inverted scale)
Source: Bank of Japan.
yardeni.com
Blue shade is Quantitative Easing Policy.Z = Zero Interest Rate Policy
Figure 40.
89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21180
160
140
120
100
80
180
160
140
120
100
80
7/16
ZYEN/EURO EXCHANGE RATE(inverted scale)
Source: Federal Reserve Board.Blue shade is Quantitative Easing Policy.Z = Zero Interest Rate Policy
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Figure 41.
Forex
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95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 220
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
NovJAPAN: INTERNATIONAL RESERVES(billion dollars, nsa)
Nongold Reserves (IMF)Holdings of US Treasury Securities*
* Includes held by private and official accounts.Source: US Department of the Treasury, Office of International Affairs and International Monetary Fund.
yardeni.com
Figure 42.
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Nov
JAPAN: INTERNATIONAL RESERVES(billion dollars, yearly change)
Nongold Reserves (IMF)Holdings ofUS Treasury Securities*
* Includes held by private and official accounts.Source: US Department of the Treasury, Office of International Affairs and International Monetary Fund.
yardeni.com
Figure 43.
International Reserves
Page 24 / July 20, 2021 / Japan www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Figure 44.
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-300
-100
100
300
500
700
900
-300
-100
100
300
500
700
900
May
JAPAN: NET SECURITIES PURCHASES BY FOREIGNERS FROM US RESIDENTS(billion dollars) Grand Total*
12-month sum (118.1)3-month sum annual rate (107.9)
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
May
US Corporate Stocks12-month sum (7.7)3-month sum annual rate (35.9)
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
May
US Treasury Bonds & Notes12-month sum (-60.5)3-month sum annual rate (-81.7)
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-100
0
100
200
300
-100
0
100
200
300
May
US Government Agency Bonds12-month sum (131.0)3-month sum annual rate (95.2)
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-50
0
50
100
-50
0
50
100
May
US Corporate Bonds12-month sum (5.2)3-month sum annual rate (5.8)
* Includes Treasury bonds and notes, government agency bonds, US corporate bonds, US corporate stocks, foreign bonds, and foreign stocks. Source: US Treasury International Capital System.
yardeni.com
US Capital Inflows: Japan
Page 25 / July 20, 2021 / Japan www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Q1
JAPAN & US: NOMINAL GDP(yearly percent change)
United StatesJapan
Source: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis and Haver Analytics.
yardeni.com
Figure 45.
86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
Jun
JAPAN & US: 10-YEAR GOVERNMENT BOND YIELDS(percent)
United States
Japan
Source: Federal Reserve Board of Governors and Financial Times.
yardeni.com
Figure 46.
Japan vs. US GDP & Yield
Page 26 / July 20, 2021 / Japan www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
53 55 57 59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Jun
US TREASURY BOND YIELD & NOMINAL GDP GROWTH
Q1
Nominal GDP(yearly percent change) (2.3)
US Treasury 10-YearBond Yield(percent) (1.5)
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Federal Reserve Board.
yardeni.com
Figure 47.
86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Q1
JAPAN: BOND YIELD & NOMINAL GDP
10-Year GovernmentBond Yield(percent)Nominal GDP(yearly percent change)
Source: Haver Analytics.
yardeni.com
Figure 48.
Japan vs. US GDP & Yield
Page 27 / July 20, 2021 / Japan www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 202110
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
Jun
Jun
JAPAN: CONSUMER CONFIDENCE & MANUFACTURING PURCHASING MANAGERS INDEX
Consumer Confidence (50 + better, sa) (37.4)Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (52.4)
yardeni.com
Source: Cabinet Office of Japan, Nikkei/Markit, and Haver Analytics..
Figure 49.
Consumer Confidence
Page 28 / July 20, 2021 / Japan www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22160
150
140
130
120
110
100
90
80
70
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
7/20
7/20
NIKKEI & YEN(stock index in local currency)
Nikkei
Yen/US Dollar(inverted scale)
Source: Haver Analytics.
yardeni.com
Figure 50.
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
JAPAN: CONSUMER PRICE INDEX(yearly percent change)
Jun
BOJ’s Inflation TargetJapan CPI
Headline (0.2)Core* (0.2)
yardeni.com
* Excluding fresh food.Source: Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications.
Figure 51.
Japan
Page 29 / July 20, 2021 / Japan www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 202270
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
Jul
JAPAN: INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION(2010=100)
Source: Ministry of Economy, Trade & Industry.
yardeni.com
Figure 52.
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 220
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
NovJAPAN: INTERNATIONAL RESERVES(billion dollars, nsa)
Nongold Reserves (IMF)Holdings of US Treasury Securities*
* Includes held by private and official accounts.Source: US Department of the Treasury, Office of International Affairs and International Monetary Fund.
yardeni.com
Figure 53.
Japan
Page 30 / July 20, 2021 / Japan www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
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