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COUNTRY MONITOR PAKISTAN

09 January Volume 11 Issue 01

Overview 2014 - Outlook 2015

Country Monitor Pakistan is intended for clients and authorised subscribers use only. Any forwarding of this docu-ment, or parts of this document, to recipients outside the subscriber organization will constitute a copyright infringe-

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2014 in Pakistan experienced an uneven and complex atmosphere from political and security

perspectives. From the day one, 2014 was a year of political uncer-tainty and unbridled terrorism that not only kept the incumbent gov-ernment led by Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N), distracted from other yet vital challenges like energy crisis, melting economy and thinning relationship with the neighboring countries but also bred for it widespread criticism on several occasions. While the political environment during second half of 2014 remained highly charged due to anti-government campaigns launched by Paki-stan Tehrik-e-Insaf (PTI) and Pakistan Awami Tehrik (PAT), the first half of 2014 began with hide and seek over the trial of former army chief Pervez Musharraf which almost brought the civil-military rela-tionship to a complete halt. The PTI chief Imran Khan certainly domi-nated the political scene for almost six months but it has been the role of the Army Chief General Raheel Sharif which emerged as the key, both as political savior in the post August 14 political turmoil and also due to the success in full scale military operation “Zarb-e-Azb” in North Waziristan. His complete resolve in the post-Peshawar incident developments has deepened the optimism, as the whole nation stands united against terrorism and extremism in the after-math of carnage at the Army Public School in Peshawar. Similarly from security point of view, the first half of 2014 witnessed calm due to initiation of peace dialogue between the government and the outlawed Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) but the terror attack at Karachi airport (Jun 08) changed the entire scenario and provided solid grounds for immediate suspension of dialogue

40 including 6 security men 8 criminals 2 militants killed in Karachi…..4

KP/ FATA: 84 militants killed in air and drone opera-tions…..5

Skirmishes Flare on India-Pakistan Bor-der…..8

Key dates, events and risks in the coming weeks….9

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(from front page) Overview 2014 - Outlook 2015

Country Monitor Pakistan is intended for clients and authorised subscribers use only. Any forwarding of this docu-ment, or parts of this document, to recipients outside the subscriber organization will constitute a copyright infringe-

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process and launching of operation Zarb-e-Azb which to date is ongoing. Another alarming security concern that surfaced in Pakistan during 2014 is the growing footprints of Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS). Although no evidence of ISIS involvement in any terrorist activi-ty is available thus far but it seems to be making headways as several militant groups and com-manders especially those fleeing the military oper-ations have announced support to the rapidly emerging threat.

Outlook 2015: 2015 will certainly determine the

future political outlook of the country. The Paki-stan Tehreek-i-Insaf is now in negotiations with the ruling party on its demand of setting up a judicial commission to probe the allegations of rigging in the 2013 elections. The talks do not at the moment seem to be heading towards a settlement. It will be important how these actually conclude in coming days. The PTI chief may not let his movement die down as he has already giv-en a deadline (Jan 18) for the formation of judicial com-mission. If the talks fail he is likely to announce the ‘Plan D’ which is unknown yet but obviously will be a pressure building move. For the prime minister and his team, it would be a test to make 2015 the year of political stability but may turn out to be disaster if the situation is mishan-dled. Also, the pressure for holding the local bodies elections will be greater than before which the government has been evading under one pretext or the other. Local government polls will be one of the defining issues of 2015's national politics. The security situation may provide yet another excuse, but it may not hold for too long. Externally, whatever transpires in the battlefields and around negotiation tables in Afghanistan is

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(from front page) Overview 2014 - Outlook 2015

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crucial for Pakistan. It can translate into a lasting peace opening a new door for regional coopera-tion and economic progress, but at the same time can cast more trouble should the things go in wrong directions. The campaign against terrorism is likely to bring to fore new issues and change the national political agendas towards the second half of 2015. In terms of security, the existential internal security challenges that are threatening the country’s social, economic and political fabric are likely to continue affecting security landscape of the country during 2015. One of the most formidable national security threats faced by Pakistan to-day is its ongoing fight against terrorism and expected massive military action that is likely to take place any time soon that will certainly trigger unrest as militants retaliatory strikes may reverber-ate across the country. Given the Taliban’s strong collaboration with other militant and sectarian groups, terrorist violence has undergone a dangerous transformation. An intensifying and collec-tive network of militant outfits with political and religious ties has led the organization for execu-tion of premeditated violence to inflict maximum damage to Pakistan’s security forces, civilian population and society at large. Although, the recent military action has significantly weakened Taliban but the coming spring will all but disclose the real size of the Taliban as a fighting force. Chief among other security threats are the ethnic aggressiveness in Karachi, an ongoing ethno-nationalist insurgency in Baluchistan and the rapidly growing influence of Islamic radicalism that manifests itself through the activities of militant sectarian organizations and the Taliban.

To sum up, Pakistan is facing a variety of unusually challenging security threats today. As the is-sues of internal security and activities of foreign sponsored networks of militants has grown, Pa-kistan’s ability to improvise and make decisions that benefits Pakistan’s territorial integrity and stability appears to be tempered by the regional powers. To eliminate the terrorism menace, Na-tional Action Plan is already on the big screen but the potential security vacuum in the post-2014 largely depends upon the developments after US withdrawal from Afghanistan because fear of collapse after withdrawal would create further insecurity in the region and for all the key players alike.

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Incidents Mapping

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ISLAMABAD Security forces in multiple search operations rounded over five hundred suspects. PUNJAB: Lahore On Sun (Jan 04), security forces arrested 35 suspects who allegedly attacked candlelight ceremo-ny of assassinated governor Salman Taseer at Liberty Chowk area. On Fri (Jan 02), security forces killed 4 dacoits in exchange of fire in Manwan. SINDH: Karachi On Wed (Jan 07), six including three policemen, an AWSJ activist and a gangster were shot dead across the city. On Tue (Jan 06), militants attack security personnel conducting raids in Landhi ar-ea killing two soldiers. On Sun (Jan 04), eight people were shot dead. On Sat (Jan 03), four crimi-nals were killed in shootout with security forces near Lyari Town area. On Fri (Jan 02), grenade and gun attack in Lyari Town area killed four and injured two others. Separately, a suspected kid-napper was killed in police encounter in Lyari Town area. On Thu (Jan 01), three persons were killed and another injured in separate incidents of gun violence. On Wed (Dec 31), armed attack killed a local leader of Jamaat-e-Islami (JI) and injured his colleague in Gulshan-e-Maymar area. On Tue (Dec 30), two persons were killed. On Mon (Dec 29), security forces safely recover an ab-ducted trader after arresting four of his captors in Bin Qasim Town area. Separately, security forc-es killed a gangster and a dacoit in separate encounters. On Sun (Dec 28), senior police official narrowly escaped armed attack in Clifton area while security forces shot dead two suspected ter-rorists in Orangi Town area. On the same day, three including a policeman was killed in different areas of the city. On Sat (Dec 27), gunmen shot dead one person in Nazimabad area while a gre-nade attack injured a policeman near Jail Chowrangi area. Meanwhile security forces in multiple search operations rounded up over 61 culprits. KHYBERPAKHTUNKHAW: Peshawar On Wed (Dec 31), personal enmity claimed two fatalities near Nasir Bagh area. Meanwhile securi-ty forces conducted raids in different areas and arrested over 490 suspects. Charsadda On Tue (Dec 30), bombing near residence of a trader in Gandheri area triggered panic but no cas-ualty was reported. Hangu On Fri (Jan 02), militants attacked military check post in Doaba area injuring a soldier. Buner On Wed (Dec 31), dead bodies of three policemen were recovered from Elum Mountain areas. Bannu On Sun (Dec 28), a militant was killed in exchange of fire with security forces in Janikhel area.

Weekly Summary - Contd

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FATA: Bajaur Agency On Fri (Jan 02), security forces demolished three houses of militants in Shanrai area. On Sun (Dec 28), landmine explosion killed a woman in Mamond Tehsil area. On Mon (Dec 29), pro govern-ment tribal elder narrowly escaped a roadside bombing in Tangi area. Mohmand Agency On Tue (Dec 30), in two separate incidents of bombings, at least one soldier was killed and two others sustained injures. Kurram Agency On Tue (Dec 30), militants linked to Taliban set on fire two stat run school in Kurram Agency. Khyber Agency Security forces aerial strikes on Sat (Jan 03) killed 31 suspected militants. On Wed (Dec 31), mili-tants attacked security forces check post in Ghundi area triggering retaliation and ensuing clash killed one militant. Orakzai Agency On Sun (Jan 04), bombing in a playground near Kadda Bazaar area killed five and injured 10 per-sons. On Sat (Dec 27), 20 militants were killed while 18 militants and four soldiers were injured in separate clashes reported in Sherin Dara and Khazana Kandao. North Waziristan Agency Military action killed 25 militants while a drone attack at suspected militants hideouts killed eight and injured two others. Baluchistan On Thu (Jan 08), three separate incidents of bomb, grenade and gun attack killed two and injured four in Quetta. On Fri (Jan 02), four militants and a soldier were killed in clash reported in Khuz-dar. On Thu (Jan 01), exchange of fire between soldiers and militants in Murgha Kibzai area of Zhob killed one militant. On the same day, bombing near military vehicle in Sibi killed one soldier and injured five others. On Wed (Dec 31), armed attack at a private car on Sariab Road, Quetta killed two. On Tue (Dec 30), three bullet riddled bodies were found in Mand area of Turbat while insurgent blew up a railway track in Bolan. On Mon (Dec 29), seven persons were injured in cross border rocket attacks in Ketch. On the same day, security forces arrested 14 suspects from East-ern Bypass areas, Quetta. On Sun (Dec 28), security forces recovered and defused a high intensity bomb from Browery Road area while four terrorists were arrested from Sariab area of Quetta. On Sat (Dec 27), militants attacked security forces patrolling party in Sui area of Dera Bugti killing a soldier and injuring two others. After the incident security forces attacked militants hideout kill-ing eight militants and injuring 11 others. Separately, a suspected militant was killed and another blew himself up when security forces launched operation in Gawal Ismailzai area of Zhob.

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Security General Despite countrywide threat of militants reprisal strikes, the past week remained relevantly peaceful with no major terror attack being reported. However, considering the ongoing targeted operations against militants in major cities and massive crackdown ar-resting several militants across the country as well as impending National Action Plan against terrorism, the threat of militants’ terror strikes remains immi-nent. Over the coming days, security forces are expected to intensify their attacks against militants in different areas of FATA and military actions which are current-ly underway in Khyber and North Waziristan Agencies may be extended to other area of FATA. Further threats against any mobilization of troops into the region will spark a spate of militancy. Reports suggest that TTP militants will use their renewed campaign to target security forces, government facilities and high profile officials in a bid to pressurize government au-thorities. There is a possibility that militants may con-duct strikes in major cities in addition to their current resistance in KP. As militants have repeatedly shown their capability in the past for attacking the state, a lull period of no terror activity should be considered as tactical stance and not a total collapse of militant’s operational network. Asides, the recent military action against TTP on Afghan side of the border is likely to trigger un-rest in areas bordering Afghanistan while spill over impact may be seen in other parts of FATA where militants may escape to take shelter. In addition to persistent risk of political ethnic and sectarian violence in Karachi, the violence in connection to growing incidents of hand grenade attacks linked with extortion mafia has further exacerbated the situation wherein threat to business community would remain elevated. At least 27 high profile doctors severing in various government and private hospitals received

Outlook for the week ahead

Reported risk levels are averaged across all risk cate-gories are indicative only. The risk levels presented are not client or individual risk specific. For specific risk assessments contact:

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threatening calls from extortionists and as such risk of extortion violence in the city remains high. Asides, sporadic attacks in Layri Town area which is rife with gangsters has the potential to exac-erbate localized security environment but unlikely to have any spill over impact in remainder parts of the city. Considering earlier reports on infiltration of potential suicide bombers in Lahore and other parts of the southern Punjab Province, security outlook for the region remains detrimental with poten-tial threat of terror attacks against state-run and military installations, high-profile/ sensitive lo-cales, unsecured pubic areas and religious sites/ events. While armed campaigns by several Baloch separatist groups movement continue to occupy the center-stage in the broader Baloch conflict, the militants linked to ban sectarian outfit are pursu-ing their own parallel agendas and both have the potential to deteriorate security landscape of the region with little or no warning. As such, attacks against outside settlers, government infra-structure, security personnel and members of ban sectarian out-fits are expected to continue in week ahead. Additionally, threat of militants’ reprisal strikes against security forces and their linked entities is likely to remain particularly elevated in the backdrop of recent military actions in different parts of the region. Protests Over the coming week, unannounced protests stemming from various political and socio-economic issues are likely to continue affecting local security environment in different parts of the country. In Punjab Province, the suspension of gas supplies to domestic and commercial con-sumers has triggered widespread protest demonstrations and further such protests are likely as issue remains unresolved. In Karachi and Sindh Province, the provision of gas to CNG stations has created deadlock between association of CNG owners and government authorities which may translate into protest demonstrations. However, all such protests, if held, are generally conclude without incident with travel disruption in and around protest venue.

Outlook for the week ahead

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Security / General Jan 08: Pakistan President formalises military courts. Read More Jan 07: The Year in Drones. Read More Jan 03: Pakistan issues orders to hang seven more militants: Read

More Jan 02: Pakistani boat laden with explosives blows up off Indian

coast, India says. Read More Dec 31: Pakistan executes Musharraf death-plot convict. Read

More Dec 31: Skirmishes Flare on India-Pakistan Border. Read More Dec 31: Pakistani crime boss arrested in Dubai by Interpol. Read

More Dec 30: Market fire kills 13 in Pakistan. Read More Dec 29: Pakistan Overturns Detention of Alleged 2008 Mumbai

Attacks Leader. Read More

Media Monitor

For media monitoring of specific organisations,

industries or other items contact

Business & Investment

Jan 08: Pakistan may issue 1,461.55MW generation licenses. Read More

Jan 05: Pakistan high growth to boost UAE business ties. Read More

Jan 03: Pakistan for enhanced energy ties with Iran. Read More Jan 02: Construction sector expected to grow in 2015. Read More Jan 01: Oil price plunge gives Pakistan breathing space. Read

More Jan 01: No improvement in energy despite positive economic in-

dicators in 2014. Read More Dec 31: Prices of medicines in Pakistan to remain frozen at 2013

levels. Read More Dec 30: Pak to soon get USD 532 mn in American assistance: en-

voy. Read More

Provide security & risk related support services throughout

Pakistan.

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Feb 05: Kashmir Day

Government and private sectors remain closed due to National Holiday, peaceful demonstra-tions are organized across the country by all sectors including political, social and human rights groups.

Risk: Potential for small scale sporadic outbreaks from fringe groups.

Key Dates