BRAZIL
UNITED STATES
MEXICO
ALGERIA
RUSSIA
KAZAKHSTAN
CHINA
AUSTRALIA
SAUDIARABIA
INDIA
ARGENTINA
PERU
BOLIVIA
VENEZUELA
MONGOLIA
TURKEY
LIBYA
ICELAND
EGYPT
JAPAN
SUDAN
PAKISTAN
OMAN
YEMEN
MADAGASCAR
INDONESIA
PHILIPPINES
ECUADOR
NIGER
CENTRAL AFRICAN REPUBLIC
KENYA
ETHIOPIA
ZAIRE(DRC)
TANZANIA
SOUTH AFRICA
LESOTHO
ANGOLA
MOROCCO
MAURITANIA
NAMIBIA
ZAMBIA
MOZAMBIQUE
GABON
IRAK
SRI LAKA
BANGLADESH
MYNMAR
VIETNAM
PAPUA NEW GUINEA
TIMOR-LESTE
NEW ZEALAND
SOUTH KOREA
CAMBODIA
LAOS
MALAYSIA
IRAN
NIGERIA
CHAD
MALI
TUNISIAISRAEL
JORDAN
SYRIALEBANON
DJIBOUTI
KUWAIT
TAIWAN
COLOMBIA
COSTA RICA
FRENCHGUIANA
PANAMA
DOMINICANREPUBLIC
HAITI
CUBA
GUATEMALAEL SALVADOR
NICARAGUA
HONDURAS
JAMAICA
FRENCHANTILLES
GUINEA
IVORY COASTSIERRA LEONE
LIBERIA GHANA TOGO
SAO TOME& PRINCIPE
GUIANASURINAM
RWANDABURUNDI
CYPRUS
BAHRAINQATAR
UNITEDARABEMIRATES
FRENCHPOYNESIA
PALESTINE
MALDIVES
HONG KONG
SINGAPORE
MAURITIUS
ILE DE LA RÉUNION
GROENLAND(DENMARK)
ERITREA
CAMEROON
UGANDA
BENIN
BURKINAFASO
CONGO
MALAWI
ZIMBABWE
SENEGAL
BOTSWANA
NEPAL
UZBEKISTAN
KYRGYZSTAN
TAJIKISTANTURKMENISTAN
GEORGIA
ARMENIA AZERBAIJAN
THAILAND
PARAGUAY
CHILE
URUGUAY
AFGHANISTAN
TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO
CAP VERT
HUNGARY
ITALY
SPAINPORTUGAL
FRANCE
GERMANYPOLAND
ROMANIA
BULGARIA
BOSNIE
GRÈCE
AUSTRIA
SLOVENIA
CZECHREPUBLIC
SLOVAKIA
SWITZERLAND
NORWAY
SWEDEN
FINLAND
UKRAINE
LITHUANIA
LATVIA
ESTONIA
BELARUS
CANADAIRELAND
UNITED KINGDOM
BELGIUM
BELIZE
160 COUNTRIES UNDER THE MAGNIFYING GLASS
COUNTRY RISK ASSESSMENT MAP • 2nd QUARTER 2016
A UNIQUE METHODOLOGY• Macroeconomic expertise in assessing country risk
• Comprehension of the business environment
• Microeconomic data collected over 70 years of payment experience
UPGRADES DOWNGRADES
RISK OF BUSINESSES DEFAULTING A1 A2 A3 A4 B C DVERY LOW LOW QUITE ACCEPTABLE ACCEPTABLE SIGNIFICANT HIGH VERY HIGH
TURKEY
GERMANY
FRANCE
ITALY
SPAIN
UNITED KINGDOM
FINLAND
SWEDEN
DENMARK
PORTUGAL
ICELAND
IRELAND
RUSSIA
LITHUANIA
LATVIA
ROMANIA
POLAND
UKRAINE
BULGARIA
HUNGARY
SLOVAKIA
CZECHREPUBLIC
GREECE
ALBANIA
MONTENEGRO
BOSNIA
CROATIA
SERBIA
NETHERLANDS
LUXEMBOURG
ESTONIA
BELARUS
MALTA
CYPRUS
MOLDOVA
BELGIUM
NORWAY
SLOVENIA
MACEDONIA
SWITZERLANDAUSTRIA
• Decrease in business insolvencies: -3.2% expected in 2016
• Higher corporate margins in 2016, supported by the growth in activity and government business support initiatives (CICE)
• First quarter showed the highest level of non-financial private investment since 2012
FRANCE
• Activity is expected to strengthen in 2016 and 2017, mainly driven by private consumption
• Investments are expected to strengthen
• Insolvencies decreasing since 2015
A3ITALYA2
A2
A2
A3
A3
A3
A3
C
B
D
DA4
D
B
A4
B
A4A3
A3A3
A4
A4
A3
A3
A3
A3
EXTREME
E
• Negative effects of the decline in oil prices
• Fiscal deficit is increasing. Public deposits have slackened, weakening the banking system
BSAUDI ARABIABCHINA
• The post-crisis turning point has been reached, resulting in a rise in business insolvencies for the first time since 2010
• Business profitability is eroding
• Investment is slowing
UNITED STATES A2
• High probability of default on sovereign debt
• Investors lack confidence in the solidity of the government and its ability to manage its debt issues
• The IMF and World Bank have temporarily suspended financial aid, due to an undisclosed debt of USD 1.4bn
MOZAMBIQUE D
• High dependence on the oil and gas sector
• Growth is expected to slow in 2016, due to fiscal consolidation
• FDI inflows remain weak, at 1% of GDP
CALGERIA
• The effectiveness of stimulus measures is being hindered by overcapacity and excessive corporate indebtedness
• South Korea, Hong Kong, Singapore, Taiwan A3 and Malaysia A4 have been hit by a shock wave. Exports, tourism and investments have been particularly affected