Course wrap-upCourse wrap-up

A few last words about some of the things we hope you take away from this quarter … – Continuum of climate information– Characteristics of planning/management

situations that favor the use of climate information

– The multidimensional nature of resource issues– Causes of vulnerability in resource systems

Climate InformationClimate Information

• The past: paleoclimate and historical data• ENSO: predictions begin in June for events

occurring over the following 12 months• PDO: potential for multiyear predictions• Global warming: scenarios for future decades

and centuries

Characteristics of systems that favor the use Characteristics of systems that favor the use of climate informationof climate information

Understanding of systemUnderstanding of system• What you care about is predictable• Good understanding of causal linkages between climate

and resource response• Good match between timescale of climate variation and

resource management decisions• Well-understood systems: if action is taken on a climate

forecast, right or wrong you know the consequences (a good insurance policy)

• Predictions give more benefit than alternative actions (ex: hurricane response)

• Predictions are trusted

Characteristics of systems that favor the use Characteristics of systems that favor the use of climate information, of climate information, continued…

SensitivitySensitivity• Vulnerability is seen to be a problem by

decision-makers and stakeholders (earthquakes vs. global warming!)

• Decisions are already being based on resource forecasts (salmon harvest allocations, river runoff, reservoir inflows)

• High sensitivity to infrequent extreme events (floods, hurricanes, blizzards)

Characteristics of systems that favor the use Characteristics of systems that favor the use of climate informationof climate information, continued…

Institutional characteristicsInstitutional characteristics• System has room & flexibility for adaptation (action is

possible)• Agencies have resources to support staff and/or projects to

develop climate related decision support tools (BPA, ACOE, SPU...)

• Availability of information and technical capacity is high• There are rewards for good decisions, penalties for poor

decisions (public versus private; jurisdiction)• Requirements for justifying decisions• Risk/reward ratio for taking action is small and understood

(hedging reservoir operations in an El Niño year)

What have we missed?

• Institutional barriers? Economic barriers? Psychology of resource management?

Characteristics of Vulnerable systemsCharacteristics of Vulnerable systems

Vulnerability: related to the difference between sensitivity - adaptability

• Imposed rigidity and/or fully (to over-) allocated resources– Expectations/allocations not matched by long-

term reality in terms of resource availability … like the Colorado River Compact, the Klamath Basin

– The ratchet effect: Yakima Basin junior rights holders versus senior rights holders

– Lack of diversification

Vulnerable resource systemsVulnerable resource systems

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Vulnerable resource systemsVulnerable resource systems

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Vulnerable resource systemsVulnerable resource systems

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Expectations matterExpectations matter

SensitivitySensitivity close to fully allocated resource

AdaptabilityAdaptability rigidity, fixed expectations, the resource ratchet

Building Capacity and Delivering Action

Building Adaptive Capacity

•Addressing institutional, legal, cultural, technical, fiscal and other barriers •Activities can be taken independent of specific climate projections

Delivering Adaptive Actions

•Implementing actions to address specific climate vulnerabilities•Choice and timing of some actions may depend on specifics of the climate projections

Two-Pronged Approach:

Characteristics of Adaptation

• ongoing process (embedded examples of existing adaptations to climate)

• adaptation = both a policy response and a spontaneous adjustment

• occurs not in isolation but within complex milieu of ecological, economic, social & institutional circumstances

• not always successful– maladaptation occurs because of other social goals,

often short-term

Interconnections between PNW resource Interconnections between PNW resource systemssystems

climateclimate

hydrologyhydrology

forestsforests

fishfish

coastscoasts

X

X X X

X X

XX X

X

X

X X X

X

E - L - NE - L - N E - L - NE - L - N E - L - NE - L - N E - L - NE - L - N

Seattle’s Water Seattle’s Water SupplySupply

• With investments in conservation and fixing leaky pipes, SPU has dramatically reduced water use while increasing the number of customers

SPU’s current SPU’s current Water supply Water supply

situationsituation

• current water stress is greatest in S. Arizona, New Mexico, and eastern Colorado

La Niña?La Niña?

• Still hanging around!

ENSO IndicatorsENSO Indicators

• Ocean surface temperatures remain cold …

• But that will likely change very soon - the subsurface ocean temperatures along the equator have been warming up (top right figure)

Surface temperature index

ENSO forecasts for the next yearENSO forecasts for the next year

• Most ENSO forecast models showing an end to La Niña by summer, then a wide range of possibilities by next fall/winter

CPC Summer CPC Summer ForecastForecast

• With lingering La Niña, forecasts show increased odds for a cool/wet spring (good for skiing, summer water, salmon … maybe not so good for sun tanning or gardening)