against terror”. His term of office asPresident pressure expires inNovember, but there are constitutionaland political obstacles to his seeking re-election which he has already an-nounced he will do. The threat of streetunrest looms large with the expectedreturn of exiled former prime ministerNawaz Sharif on September 10. Thecurrent pro-Musharraf Parliament’stenure also expires in November andthere is no clarity about what kind ofassemblies fresh elections will throwup. Finally, there is immensepressure—domestic and international—on the General to hang up his armyuniform. But he realises that may re-duce him to a figurehead without thearmy’s clout at his command.

One can almost sense the tension inthe air as the critical dates get nearer.News channels and the newspapersare full of speculative stories about thepossible permutations being consid-ered by Musharraf’s advisers as well asleaked intelligence assessments of thestrength of the various parties. Hourlyupdates about “breakthroughs” andthe conflicting statements of variouspoliticians are considerably muddyingup the atmosphere as well. Even asSharif vows to return “to rid the coun-try of dictatorship because my countryneeds me”, news breaks about theSaudi Government allegedly askingSharif not to return to Pakistan. Butmatters are still so fluid that no twopeople are able to agree on what the fu-ture holds in store. In Islamabad, stillreeling under the aftermath of the po-larising Lal Masjid showdown and asubsequent militant campaign of sui-cide bombings, the mood of anticipa-tion about “something big about tohappen” is so great that some are seri-ously asking the question whetherPakistan stands at a crossroad similarto Iran before the revolution in 1979.

For most observers, this is the be-ginning of the end for Musharraf. Hisaides have been engaged in desperatenegotiations to hammer out some sortof a deal with former premier BenazirBhutto that might stave off the chal-lenges to his rule. In itself, the very fact

32 INDIA TODAY u SEPTEMBER 17, 2007 SEPTEMBER 17, 2007 u INDIA TODAY 33

END GAMEGENERAL MUSHARRAFFIGHTS FOR SURVIVAL ASHIS POPULARITY DWINDLES,HIS EXILED POLITICALRIVALS READY TO RETURN,THE JUDICIARY SEEMSUNCOMPROMISING ANDRELIGIOUS EXTREMISMRISES. IS IT TIME UP FORTHE PAKISTAN PRESIDENT?

In his memoir In the Line of Fire published last year,Pakistan’s soldier-President had waxed eloquent on thebenefits of his exacting commando training. “It taughtme that enduring extreme hardship has more to do with mental resilience than physical stamina,” he wrote. President General Pervez Musharraf will be

hoping that the lessons he had learnt on the frontlines of thearmy will stand him in good stead in the coming days.Because one way or the other, they are likely to be the mostcritical days for him.

At stake for General Musharraf is not only his continuedrole at the helm of affairs in Pakistan but perhaps his verysurvival. He is faced with a resurgent political oppositionthat is riding on the back of a popular lawyers’ movementagainst him and an assertive superior judiciary that seemsin no mood to compromise. All the recent Supreme Courtdecisions have gone against him and his Government, andfurther such decisions are expected. His popularity hasplummeted since his futile attempt to sack Chief JusticeIftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry in March and since Pakistanicasualties have mounted in the American-mandated “war

n By Hasan Zaidi in Karachi

Musharraf wants to be re-elected president and remain the army chief, but with his position considerably weakened he cannot be both.

CORNERED: Musharraf is makingdesperate attempts to retain power

REUTERS REUTERS

AP

BhuttoSharif

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that Musharraf has beenforced—through circumstances andfrom western allies who would like tosee the forging of a ‘liberal front’ inPakistan to take on the religious hard-liners—to consider a compromise withBhutto, is a strong indicator of theweakened position he finds himself in.Musharraf had made no attempt in thepast eight years to hide his revulsion forthe self-exiled leader and her allegedinvolvement in corruption cases. Onher part, Bhutto has her own compul-sions in dealing with Musharraf, andthey are obviously strong enough forher to brave the disenchantment of herparty’s generally anti-military rankand file. But whether the deal materi-alises or not—indications are that itprobably will and negotiations were onin Dubai even as this issue was going toprint—the end result is likely to be aweaker Musharraf.

“One cannot say exactly when theend will come,” says an Islamabad-based western diplomat, “it could be afew months or stretch out for anotherone or two years, but all indications arethat things are moving in that direc-

tion.” For the first time, the businesscommunity, which has long equatedprosperity and stability with Musharrafbeing at the top of affairs, is also willingto look beyond him. “We would still liketo see General sahib in place for thecoming years,” says a leading stockmarket broker who requestedanonymity, “but I think we are in a po-sition now that even if he is no longerthere, we would survive. I don’t thinkanyone new is going to fundamentallychange his policies.”

The personal crisis that Musharraffaces has many dimensions and anumber of unpredictable stake-holders that make hazarding

predictions a very risky matter. FromBhutto and Sharif to disgruntled alliessuch as PML(Q)’s Chaudhry Shujaat, theincensed mullah lobby of the MuttahedaMajlis-e-Amal (MMA), the SupremeCourt and the army itself, each playercould influence the outcome of events(see box). A new, still nascent, factor isthe public mood exhibited to a tellingeffect during the judicial crisis. Thereare a number of possibilities the

General may attempt in his bid to holdon to power. But perhaps none is asdangerous or unpredictable for him ashis own ego.

There is widespread consensus inPakistan that had he not made the mis-take of alienating the chief justice—and with him almost the entire supe-rior judiciary—Musharraf may havesailed through with his re-election.Certainly, the political opposition wasnowhere near as potent then as it nowseems. “The problem is that I am notsure Musharraf recognises that theworld has changed,” says a senior jour-nalist who has attended various confi-dential briefings at the Presidency. “Heseems still to be negotiating to retainthe maximum amount of power butshould be looking at things as a matterof survival. It’s just not the samePakistan it was even earlier this year.”

Other analysts are even more blunt.“Two choices stand before him,” writespolitical commentator Ayaz Amir inDawn about Musharraf's prospects.“He can resist change and in theprocess emulate the undignified exits of(generals) Ayub Khan and Yahya Khan.Or he can become the bridge from thisorder to the next and still write somekind of an honourable name for himselfin this country’s troubled history.”

Since Musharraf is unlikely to sim-ply step down, as Amir advocates, whatare the options in front of him? His firstorder of priority is to get himself re-elected as President. His term of officeexpires in November and, legally, thepresidential elections must take placebetween September 15 and October15. However, not only is there stiff op-position to him standing for re-electionas a uniformed President—the present

Parliament had allowed him to con-tinue to hold the position of army chieftill the end of his current term—he alsofaces constitutional hurdles even if hewere to step down from the army.Under current law pertaining to gov-ernment employees—which he is oneof as army chief—he may not be able tostand for election for two years of leav-ing government service. As such, hewould require a constitutional amend-ment or risk the Supreme Court strik-ing down his candidacy.

There is also the moral issue, raisedby many critics, of Musharraf being re-elected from a parliament at the end ofits own term, a peculiar situation thathas arisen because Musharraf assumedthe office of President through a refer-endum—later ratified—before the cur-rent parliament came into being. Henow faces a presidential poll the way it

GENERAL IN THE LABYRINTHNAWAZ SHARIFThe PML(N) chief isunwilling to countenanceMusharraf in any positionbecause of personalhistory and a high waveof public support. Maybenefit in polls if hereturns but may also facejail back home and incurthe displeasure of theSaudi Government whichhosted him in exile.

GENERAL EHSANUL HAQThe joint chief of armystaff committee backsMusharraf for now butmay step in if the situa-tion becomes dire andMusharraf begins to beconsidered a liability.Already feeling the heatfor fighting what many inPakistan and within thearmy consider US’s waron Pakistan’s own people.

IFTIKHARCHAUDHRYEnjoying public adulationsince his restoration asthe chief justice. Seemsunhesitant to invoke suomoto powers. Has alreadyset alarm bells ringingwith judgements on disap-peared persons andSharif’s right to return.May give adverse rulingabout Musharraf’s abilityto be re-elected president.

GEORGE BUSHThe US President wantsto forge a secular, liberalalliance against religiousforces to bolster America’swar against Al Qaeda inPakistan and Afghanistan.Has been pushing hard fora deal between Musharrafand Bhutto. But may beoblivious of the long-termconsequences of suchpolarisation.

MUSHARRAF HAS THE AMERICANS’ SUPPORT BUT BACK HOME IS FACED WITH CHALLENGES FROM ARESURGENT OPPOSITION, A CIVIL SOCIETY MOVEMENT, RELIGIOUS EXTREMISM AND JUDICIAL ACTIVISM

FAZLUR RAHMANAmong the mullahs, theJUI leader stands to losethe most in a face-offbetween Musharraf andreligious forces. Controlsthe NWFP Governmentand a part of the rulingcoalition in Balochistan.Willing to deal with any-one but does not want tobe seen as having sold outthe religious cause.

BENAZIRBHUTTOThe PPP leader is willingto support Musharraf as aweakened president oncehe steps out of uniform.Stands to gain a share ofpower and also benefitfrom the ending of cor-ruption cases against her,but may lose credibilityand votes for bailing outa military dictator onAmerican prompting.

CHAUDHRYSHUJAATThe PML(Q) leader fearsfree polls in the face ofresurgence of Sharif andBhutto. Tried to sabotageBhutto-Musharraf dealand keep the General de-pendent on him andcousin Pervez Elahi, thePunjab CM. Willing tohobnob with religiouslobby. Stands to loseground in every scenario.

REU

TERS

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is stipulated in the Constitution,through a weighted electoral college ofthe federal and provincial parliaments.While he has the strength to carrythrough his election in the current as-semblies, there is a serious risk at-tached to entrusting the presidentialpolls to a fresh parliament after generalelections, since he may not have thenumbers in it for a smooth sail.

On the other hand, his political ad-versaries, such as MMA, have threat-ened to resign from the assembliesshould he attempt to get elected fromthe present parliament. Since the MMA

also runs the government in the fron-tier province (NWFP) and is part of thecoalition in Balochistan, this threatcould also mean the dissolution ofthose assemblies, destroying the elec-toral college. The danger of agitationfrom Sharif’s PML(N), which may nothave the numbers in parliament butcould prove a formidable foe on the

streets, must also be considered.In this context, the favoured option

at the moment is the deal with Bhutto’sPakistan Peoples Party (PPP). Undersuch a deal, the PPP’s support—or atleast lack of opposition—would helpblunt the Opposition’s movementagainst Musharraf since it remains thelargest opposition party. In the wordsof a government insider, “NawazSharif would then become Bhutto’sproblem more than Musharraf’s”. ThePPP’s support in a constitutionalamendment could also help overcomea possible Supreme Court challenge toMusharraf’s candidacy. With PPP’s sup-port and its 81 seats in the NationalAssembly, the ruling coalition—whichcommands just over 170 seats in a342-member National Assembly—could attain the two-thirds majority re-quired for such an amendment.

In return, Bhutto would have thecorruption cases against her quashedand a free hand to run her party’s elec-toral campaign during the generalelections. She is desperate to see an endto the corruption cases—most of whichwere initiated during Sharif’s lasttenure—and which continue to hanglike the sword of Damocles over herhead and tarnish her internationalimage, especially with proceedings ininternational courts in Switzerland andSpain. A substantial amount of moneyallegedly siphoned abroad is also atstake. The cases are the prime reasonshe went in self-imposed exile evenbefore Musharraf came to power.

Despite losing some ground be-cause of the public perception of com-promising with an unpopular militaryruler, Bhutto’s party is expected to dowell in the upcoming polls, especiallywith good prospects of being able toform the next government. From all in-

cover story PAKISTAN

WAR ON TERROR: Religious extrem-ists being flushed out of Lal Masjid

AP

After the Lal Masjid showdown, fundamentalists have been strident in their opposition to Musharraf.

dications, General Musharraf hasmade up his mind to step down as armychief by the end of this year, whichBhutto could also take credit for as a re-sult of her negotiations.

She has defended her deal withMusharraf as “not with an individual”but a part of her struggle for “peacefultransition to democracy”. “This is crit-ical for the other war—the war of mod-eration against extremism—tosucceed,” she wrote on the conserva-tive US website The Huffington Post. “Ihad a choice. Engage in dialogue, orturn toward the streets. I knew thatstreet protests against Musharraf dic-tatorship could lead to the deaths ofhundreds. I thought about the choice

before me very carefully. I chose dia-logue; I chose negotiation.”

The sticking points in the deal haveto do with the future division of powersbetween Musharraf and the newprime minister, and with the fears ofthe President’s current allies in parlia-ment. Musharraf is unwilling to let goof presidential powers under Article58(2)b to dissolve assemblies, whichgive him, in effect, a discretionarypower over parliament. Bhutto hassuffered twice as prime minister be-cause of the same article and has de-manded it be revoked as part of herbargain. It is unlikely that Musharraf

would accept this since it would turnhim into a completely toothlessPresident but he may agree to subjecthis powers to oversight from theSupreme Court before using them. Ontheir part, Musharraf’s coalition—es-pecially the King’s Party PML(Q)—areapprehensive of being marginalisedshould a genuinely popular party suchas PPP come on board with Musharraf.Having lost ground because ofMusharraf’s plummeting approval rat-ings and Sharif’s resurgence, they donot want any such perception to fur-ther ruin their chances in the elections.

Bhutto would also like Musharraf’sban on prime ministers serving morethan two terms to go, which wouldallow her—and Sharif—to contend forthe top government slot again. This issomething the ruling PML(Q) findsanathema, in particular, since it would

send out the message that it has beendumped for PPP, a scary prospect for itin the elections. PML(Q) leader ChaudhryShujaat was quoted grumbling that hisparty “should not be made a sacrificiallamb”. It has also opposed Bhutto’s de-mands for immunity for all elected gov-ernments from 1988 to 1999.

To counter Musharraf’s attemptsto court Bhutto, Shujaat launchedhis own efforts to win overMaulana Fazlur Rahman, a key

component of MMA. There is already avisible split within MMA betweenRahman’s Jamiat-e-Ulema-Islam (JUI)and Qazi Hussain Ahmed’s Jamaat-e-Islami. Rahman, who, for all his fire-brand rhetoric, is a practical politicianat heart, has the most of all MMA lead-ers to lose from political chaos since hehas the largest number of parliamen-tarians in the assemblies from MMA aswell as control of NWFP and Balochistangovernments. While Rahman has saidpublicly that he would not supportMusharraf’s re-election, there are con-tinuing rumours of Shujaat offeringhim sweeteners including premiershipto soften his stance. It is unlikely, how-ever, that Musharraf would be willingto be seen to be cozying up to anIslamist ‘hardliner’ in the face ofAmerican pressure. And whileRahman served as chairman of the

38 INDIA TODAY u SEPTEMBER 17, 2007

cover story PAKISTAN

Musharraf’s popularity plummeted following his futile attempt to sack the chief justice in March.

PRESSURE GROUPS: Chaudhry(top); resistance in frontier province

AFP

AFP

Foreign Relations Committee duringBhutto’s earlier stint in power, she toohas been averse to accepting anarrangement with any religious partythis time round, another sign ofAmerican influence in the Musharraf-Bhutto deal brokering.

In fact, Bhutto has indicated that thestumbling blocks in her talks withMusharraf have been primarily hispolitical allies “who support the

Talibanisation of Pakistan”, a sarcasticreference to Shujaat who had also ad-vocated negotiations with the LalMasjid extremists. Should the dealwith Bhutto not work out, however, forwhatever reason, Musharraf will beleft with very few options. One possiblescenario could be to dissolve the as-semblies immediately and order earlyelections. While that may buyMusharraf a little more time as Presi-dent—at least until a new electoral col-lege is established—and also temperthe opposition against his standing forre-election as president from the cur-rent parliament, it is a strategy fraughtwith uncertainties. There is no guar-antee then for Musharraf being able towin re-election.

Sharif's arrival on the scene with-

out a deal in place is also likely to causemuch unrest in the current charged at-mosphere. Having gone into exile inSaudi Arabia under a purported dealto escape a 10-year jail-term for “hi-jacking” and endangering a commer-cial flight on which Musharraf wastravelling back to Pakistan—the inci-dent that triggered the army coupagainst him—he had been margin-alised from Pakistani politics for thelast seven-and-a-half years. But thelawyers’ agitation against Musharrafchanged ground realities and he foundthe resolve to announce a date oncethe Supreme Court dismissed theGovernment’s pleas of a deal as irrele-vant to Sharif’s fundamental rights.The Government’s options in dealingwith him are limited by the SupremeCourt’s direction that he not be pre-vented from returning to Pakistan. Inthe most likely scenario, if Sharif doeslive up to his promise of returning—and despite reported Saudi Govern-ment pleas for him to honour hisagreement, it is now a political neces-sity for him to return— he would mostlikely be thrown into jail to serve outthe conviction to circumvent which hehad agreed to go into exile in SaudiArabia. However, such a scenario is

also likely to lead to street protestsfrom his party.

In the worst case, a deterioratingpolitical situation may actually causethe army to step in and ask Musharrafto step down. There is precedent forsuch an action, in the case of ‘FieldMarshal’ President Ayub Khan, whowas asked to step aside in 1969 tomake way for General Yahya Khanafter civil unrest all over Pakistan andthe growing insurgency in then EastPakistan. In such a drastic situation,the army high command may decidethat Musharraf’s person is a liabilitythey would be better off without. A newgeneral at the top would also not bebound by Musharraf’s promises—made to stem persistent domestic ru-mours and international jitters—not toimpose martial law or an emergency.

Most insiders do not see any indi-cation of such a worst-case scenario

unfolding at the present time. But it isalso true that questions are alreadybeing raised about the morale withinthe armed forces after some 300 sol-diers were captured by militants inSouth Waziristan without a shot beingfired. The involvement of the PakistanArmy in the fight against alleged AlQaeda and Taliban militants on thePakistan side of the Afghan border hasexacted a heavy toll and is increasinglybeing seen as Musharraf’s fight at thebehest of the US. The latest bombings,on September 4 near army GHQ inRawalpindi, particularly of an un-marked bus carrying Inter-ServicesIntelligence personnel, has furthershaken the confidence of the armedforces. In a dire political situation, it isnot inconceivable that Musharraf losesthe confidence of his army colleagues.

Beyond his commando training,Musharraf also referred in In the Lineof Fire to his sense of being blessed be-cause of his many narrow escapesfrom death, both during his militaryduty and the assassination attempts onhim as President. If General Musharrafmanages to emerge intact from hiscurrent predicament, he could wellconsider it another very lucky escapefrom political death. n

SEPTEMBER 17, 2007 u INDIA TODAY 39

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Should the deal with Bhutto not work out, Musharraf may even be pushed out of power by the army.

COMEBACK PLATFORM: Bhutto’ssupporters vouch for their leader

AFP