21
COVID - 19 Forecasting Model
COVID-19 Forecasting Model
Disclaimers
• The following forecast models …
• … are predicated on the persistence of current behaviors.
• … do not account for outbreaks in specific settings (e.g., nursing homes).
• … are much like weather forecasts; that is, proximate predictions are more stable
than distant predictions.
• … include the Emergency Preparedness regions with a sufficient number of
patients to produce reliable results.
Methodology
• Reported distributions of COVID deaths and cases across the globe were used to model the estimated time to peak and the shape of the distributions.
• Nonlinear regression models were applied to observed daily counts of patients for Alabama, UAB, and Emergency Preparedness districts. (Forecast models for districts with small numbers of patients are not shown due to the instability of the results.)
• The regression models were informed by global time to peak estimates and the shape of the temporal distribution of deaths/cases from geographic areas that demonstrated optimal resemblance to Alabama, UAB, and Emergency Preparedness districts.
State Emergency
Preparedness Districts
4
Alabama COVID Patient Forecast
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
2/24/2020 3/15/2020 4/4/2020 4/24/2020 5/14/2020 6/3/2020 6/23/2020 7/13/2020 8/2/2020 8/22/2020
Nu
mb
er
of
CO
VID
Pati
en
ts
Observed and Predicted Number of COVID Inpatients, Alabama Hospitals
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
Num
ber
of
Death
sDaily Number of Deaths Among COVID+ Hospitalized Patients, Alabama
UAB COVID Patient Forecast
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
3/1/2020 3/21/2020 4/10/2020 4/30/2020 5/20/2020 6/9/2020 6/29/2020 7/19/2020 8/8/2020
Num
ber
of
CO
VID
Patients
Observed and Predicted Number of COVID Inpatients, UAB Hospital
Jefferson District COVID Patient Forecast
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2/24/2020 3/15/2020 4/4/2020 4/24/2020 5/14/2020 6/3/2020 6/23/2020 7/13/2020 8/2/2020
Nu
mb
er
of
CO
VID
Pati
en
tsObserved and Predicted Number of COVID Inpatients, Jefferson County Hospitals
East Central District COVID Patient Forecast
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2/24/2020 3/15/2020 4/4/2020 4/24/2020 5/14/2020 6/3/2020 6/23/2020 7/13/2020 8/2/2020
Nu
mb
er
of
CO
VID
Pati
en
tsObserved and Predicted Number of COVID Inpatients, East Central District Hospitals
Mobile District COVID Patient Forecast
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
2/24/2020 3/15/2020 4/4/2020 4/24/2020 5/14/2020 6/3/2020 6/23/2020 7/13/2020 8/2/2020
Nu
mb
er
of
CO
VID
Pati
en
tsObserved and Predicted Number of COVID Inpatients, Mobile District Hospitals
West Central District COVID Patient Forecast
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
3/20/2020 4/9/2020 4/29/2020 5/19/2020 6/8/2020 6/28/2020 7/18/2020 8/7/2020
Nu
mb
er
of
CO
VID
Pati
en
tsObserved and Predicted Number of COVID Inpatients, West Central District Hospitals
North Alabama District COVID Patient Forecast
0
50
100
150
200
250
2/24/2020 3/15/2020 4/4/2020 4/24/2020 5/14/2020 6/3/2020 6/23/2020 7/13/2020 8/2/2020
Nu
mb
er
of
CO
VID
Pati
en
tsObserved and Predicted Number of COVID Inpatients, North Alabama District Hospitals
Other Districts COVID Patient Trajectories
20
0
50
100
150
200
2503
/24
/20
20
3/2
6/2
02
0
3/2
8/2
02
0
3/3
0/2
02
0
4/1
/20
20
4/3
/20
20
4/5
/20
20
4/7
/20
20
4/9
/20
20
4/1
1/2
02
0
4/1
3/2
02
0
4/1
5/2
02
0
4/1
7/2
02
0
4/1
9/2
02
0
4/2
1/2
02
0
4/2
3/2
02
0
4/2
5/2
02
0
4/2
7/2
02
0
4/2
9/2
02
0
5/1
/20
20
5/3
/20
20
5/5
/20
20
5/7
/20
20
5/9
/20
20
5/1
1/2
02
0
5/1
3/2
02
0
5/1
5/2
02
0
5/1
7/2
02
0
5/1
9/2
02
0
5/2
1/2
02
0
5/2
3/2
02
0
5/2
5/2
02
0
5/2
7/2
02
0
5/2
9/2
02
0
5/3
1/2
02
0
6/2
/20
20
6/4
/20
20
6/6
/20
20
6/8
/20
20
6/1
0/2
02
0
6/1
2/2
02
0
6/1
4/2
02
0
6/1
6/2
02
0
6/1
8/2
02
0
6/2
0/2
02
0
6/2
2/2
02
0
6/2
4/2
02
0
6/2
6/2
02
0
6/2
8/2
02
0
6/3
0/2
02
0
7/2
/20
20
7/4
/20
20
7/6
/20
20
7/8
/20
20
Nu
mb
er o
f C
on
firm
ed C
ases
Number of In-House COVID-19 Patients by Day and Region
North Alabama Northeastern Shoals Southeastern Southwestern West Central
