1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
COVID-19 in New Mexico: Epidemiologic and Modeling
UpdateJune 9, 2020
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
Prevalence: COVID-19 cases per 100,000 by U.S. states
As of June 9, 2020
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
Prevalence Rate: Number of COVID-19 cases per 100,000 population
Source: Infectious Disease Epidemiology Bureau, Epidemiology and Response Division 6.07.2020, New Mexico Department of Health. Population estimates, UNM Geospatial and Population Studies Program.
1896.3
89.6237.0
66.2206.4
365.8
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
May 31, 2020
2132.6
99.5253.9
77.5
340.3425.4
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
June 7, 2020
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
03/0
9/20
03/1
1/20
03/1
3/20
03/1
5/20
03/1
7/20
03/1
9/20
03/2
1/20
03/2
3/20
03/2
5/20
03/2
7/20
03/2
9/20
03/3
1/20
04/0
2/20
04/0
4/20
04/0
6/20
04/0
8/20
04/1
0/20
04/1
2/20
04/1
4/20
04/1
6/20
04/1
8/20
04/2
0/20
04/2
2/20
04/2
4/20
04/2
6/20
04/2
8/20
04/3
0/20
05/0
2/20
05/0
4/20
05/0
6/20
05/0
8/20
05/1
0/20
05/1
2/20
05/1
4/20
05/1
6/20
05/1
8/20
05/2
0/20
05/2
2/20
05/2
4/20
05/2
6/20
05/2
8/20
05/3
0/20
06/0
1/20
06/0
3/20
06/0
5/20
06/0
7/20
New Mexico COVID-19 Cases by Date of Specimen Collection – 6/9/20
Positive samples collected during this time may not yet be reported.
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
Northeast R_effective1.10 ↑
Central R_effective1.05 ↓
Southeast R_effective 1.13 ↓
SouthwestR_effective 1.09 ↓
NorthwestR_effective 1.08 ↓ Low Level Endemic
1-1.1
Approaching Low Level Endemic1.11-1.15
Requiring further mitigation >1.15
Key
As of May 26, 2020
Due to a technical issue, regional R-effective measures have not been updated for this week.
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
Projected Doubling Timeby Health Region, New Mexico
Metro, 10.9
Northeast, 14.14
Northwest, 8.3
Southeast, 14.09
Southwest, 11.2
New Mexico, 9.2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
165/
10/2
020
5/11
/202
05/
12/2
020
5/13
/202
05/
14/2
020
5/15
/202
05/
16/2
020
5/17
/202
05/
18/2
020
5/19
/202
05/
20/2
020
5/21
/202
05/
22/2
020
5/23
/202
05/
24/2
020
5/25
/202
05/
26/2
020
5/27
/202
05/
28/2
020
5/29
/202
05/
30/2
020
5/31
/202
06/
1/20
206/
2/20
206/
3/20
206/
4/20
20
Num
ber o
f Day
s fo
r Cas
e Co
unt t
o Do
uble
Projected Doubling Time Based on Date of Test Specimen Collection and Cumulative Average Rate of Increase.Source: Infectious Disease Epidemiology Bureau, Epidemiology and Response Division 6.9.2020, New Mexico Department of Health.
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
In the past week, 7-day rolling average of reported case rates has increased in the Southwest and Northwest.
7-day rolling average of reported cases per 100,000 population by date and region
Courtesy of Presbyterian Healthcare Services – June 8, 2020.
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
20003
/09/
2003
/11/
2003
/13/
2003
/15/
2003
/17/
2003
/19/
2003
/21/
2003
/23/
2003
/25/
2003
/27/
2003
/29/
2003
/31/
2004
/02/
2004
/04/
2004
/06/
2004
/08/
2004
/10/
2004
/12/
2004
/14/
2004
/16/
2004
/18/
2004
/20/
2004
/22/
2004
/24/
2004
/26/
2004
/28/
2004
/30/
2005
/02/
2005
/04/
2005
/06/
2005
/08/
2005
/10/
2005
/12/
2005
/14/
2005
/16/
2005
/18/
2005
/20/
2005
/22/
2005
/24/
2005
/26/
2005
/28/
2005
/30/
2006
/01/
2006
/03/
2006
/05/
2006
/07/
20
Northwest Region Case Count by Collection Date with 7 Day Moving Average –June 9, 2020
Positive samples collected during this time may not yet be reported.
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
0
50
100
150
200
250
03/0
9/20
03/1
1/20
03/1
3/20
03/1
5/20
03/1
7/20
03/1
9/20
03/2
1/20
03/2
3/20
03/2
5/20
03/2
7/20
03/2
9/20
03/3
1/20
04/0
2/20
04/0
4/20
04/0
6/20
04/0
8/20
04/1
0/20
04/1
2/20
04/1
4/20
04/1
6/20
04/1
8/20
04/2
0/20
04/2
2/20
04/2
4/20
04/2
6/20
04/2
8/20
04/3
0/20
05/0
2/20
05/0
4/20
05/0
6/20
05/0
8/20
05/1
0/20
05/1
2/20
05/1
4/20
05/1
6/20
05/1
8/20
05/2
0/20
05/2
2/20
05/2
4/20
05/2
6/20
05/2
8/20
05/3
0/20
06/0
1/20
06/0
3/20
06/0
5/20
06/0
7/20
Southwest Region Case Count by Collection Date with 7 Day Moving Average –June 9, 2020
Positive samples collected during this time may not yet be reported.
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
0
50
100
150
200
25003
/09/
2003
/11/
2003
/13/
2003
/15/
2003
/17/
2003
/19/
2003
/21/
2003
/23/
2003
/25/
2003
/27/
2003
/29/
2003
/31/
2004
/02/
2004
/04/
2004
/06/
2004
/08/
2004
/10/
2004
/12/
2004
/14/
2004
/16/
2004
/18/
2004
/20/
2004
/22/
2004
/24/
2004
/26/
2004
/28/
2004
/30/
2005
/02/
2005
/04/
2005
/06/
2005
/08/
2005
/10/
2005
/12/
2005
/14/
2005
/16/
2005
/18/
2005
/20/
2005
/22/
2005
/24/
2005
/26/
2005
/28/
2005
/30/
2006
/01/
2006
/03/
2006
/05/
2006
/07/
20
Southwest Case Count by Collection Date - 6/9/2020
Without Detention Centers Detention Center
Positive samples collected during this time may not yet be reported.
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
Hospitalization Rate: Number of COVID-19 cases per 100,000 population
Source: Infectious Disease Epidemiology Bureau, Epidemiology and Response Division 6.8.2020, New Mexico Department of Health. Population estimates, UNM Geospatial and Population Studies Program.
368.4
14.3 26.26.5 18.2
58.0
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
June 1, 2020408.6
14.6 27.86.8
22.3
64.0
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
June 8, 2020
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
COVID-19 hospitalizations and ventilator use
As of June 5, 2020
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
COVID-19 daily new hospitalizations
As of June 5, 2020
NM-EDSS on 6/5/2020 at 2:17 PM
New hospitalizations during this time may not yet be reported
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
COVID-19 daily new hospitalizations by Regions
As of June 5, 2020
NM-EDSS on 6/5/2020 at 2:17 PM
New hospitalizations during this time may not yet be reported
New hospitalizations during this time may not yet be reported
Metro Region Northwest Region
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
COVID-19 daily new hospitalizations by Regions
As of June 5, 2020
NM-EDSS on 6/5/2020 at 2:17 PM
Northeast Region Southwest RegionNew hospitalizations during this time may not yet be reported
New hospitalizations during this time may not yet be reported
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
COVID-19 daily new hospitalizations by Regions
As of June 5, 2020
NM-EDSS on 6/5/2020 at 2:17 PM
Southeast Region
New hospitalizations during this time may not yet be reported
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
New COVID-19 hospitalizations each weekNM-EDSS on 6/5/2020 at 2:17 PM
New hospitalizations during this time may not yet be reported
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
Hospitalizations and ventilators seem to have plateaued.
Courtesy of Presbyterian Healthcare Services – June 8, 2020.
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
On a county level, most counties have decreasing hospitalizations.
Courtesy of LANL – June 4, 2020.
Hospital Beds + ICU
Date (2/23 – 6/7)
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
Mortality Rate: Number of COVID-19 deaths per100,000 population
Rates have been age-adjusted to the U.S. 2000 standard population.Source: Bureau of Vital Records and Health Statistics and Infectious Disease Epidemiology Bureau, Epidemiology and Response Division 6.7.2020, New Mexico Department of Health. Population estimates, UNM Geospatial and Population Studies Program.
59.8
0.74.9
0.52.8
15.3
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Northwest Northeast Metro Southeast Southwest New Mexico
Dea
ths
per 1
00,0
00 P
opul
atio
n (a
ge-a
djus
ted)
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
1 1 1
2
1 1 1
2
1 1
2
1
4
2
4
5
1
6
3
7 7
4
5
1
5
9 9
7
6 6
9
10
7
5
10
11
14
10
5
8
9
11
13
8 8
11
10
7
8
6
7
5
2
4
6
8
10
7
3
5
4 4
6
9
2
5
4
5
3
1 1
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Num
ber o
f Dea
ths
COVID-19 Deaths by Date of Death, New Mexico
10 per. Mov. Avg. (Deaths)
Reporting through 6/8/2020
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
2
9
19
33
43
6664
57
43
35
27
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Num
ber o
f Dea
ths
COVID-19 Deaths by Week of Death, New Mexico
Reporting through 6/6/2020
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
11.1
42.1
51.5
62.8
69.773.4
68.4
74.4
80.0
88.9
88.9
52.6
42.4
34.9
21.2
26.624.6 23.3
14.3
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
3/29
- 4/
4
4/5
- 4/1
1
4/12
- 4/
18
4/19
- 4/
25
4/26
- 5/
2
5/3
- 5/9
5/10
- 5/
16
5/17
- 5/
23
5/24
- 5/
30
5/31
- 6/
6
Perc
ent o
f Tot
al N
ew D
eath
s Ea
ch W
eek
Week of Death
New COVID-19 Deaths by Week and Region
Northwest
Northeast
Metro
Southeast
Southwest
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
11.1
21.1
42.4
55.8
62.1
51.6
63.2
74.4
82.9 81.5
33.3
68.4
30.332.6
24.2
28.1
22.8
16.3
5.77.4
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
3/29
- 4/
4
4/5
- 4/1
1
4/12
- 4/
18
4/19
- 4/
25
4/26
- 5/
2
5/3
- 5/9
5/10
- 5/
16
5/17
- 5/
23
5/24
- 5/
30
5/31
- 6/
6
Perc
ent o
f Tot
al N
ew D
eath
s Ea
ch W
eek
Week of Death
New COVID-19 Deaths by Week and Race/Ethnicity
AIAN
Asian
Black
Hispanic
White
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
33.3
57.9
42.4
51.2 53.0 51.6
43.939.5
14.3
7.4
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
3/29
- 4/
4
4/5
- 4/1
1
4/12
- 4/
18
4/19
- 4/
25
4/26
- 5/
2
5/3
- 5/9
5/10
- 5/
16
5/17
- 5/
23
5/24
- 5/
30
5/31
- 6/
6
Perc
ent o
f Tot
al N
ew D
eath
s Ea
ch W
eek
Week of Death
New COVID-19 Deaths by Week and Long Term Care Residence
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
Case Fatality Rate: Percentage of COVID-19 cases resulting in death
Rates have been age-adjusted to U.S. COVID-19 cases.Source: Bureau of Vital Records and Health Statistics and Infectious Disease Epidemiology Bureau, Epidemiology and Response Division, reporting through 6.5.2020, New Mexico Department of Health.
7.0%
1.4%
5.9%
2.5% 2.5%
5.9% 5.8%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
Northwest Northeast Metro Southeast Southwest New Mexico U.S.
Case
Fat
ality
Rat
e (a
ge-a
djus
ted)
New Mexico Health Region
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
3.2%
4.1%
3.9%
4.5%4.6% 4.6%
4.4%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
Perc
ent o
f Cas
es th
at D
ied
Cumulative Case Fatality
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
Supplementary Slides
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
Modeling Assumptions
Variable Measured Value Value as of 6.8.20
R_Effective Actual Measured Daily Value by key county
R_eff=1.07
Positive Test Multiplier Calculated by LANL 4.4
Hospitalization and Mortality Actual rolling value / estimated number of total infected
Medical 0.3% ICU 0.3%Vent Rate 69.8% of ICUCrude Case Fatality Rate 4.4%
Length of Stay Actual rolling value / estimated number of total infected
Medical 5 daysICU 14 days ICU on Vent 14 days