COVID-19 Market UpdateE c o n o m i c & I n d u s t r y I n s i g h t s Te a m
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COVID-19 LOCAL IMPACT ASSESSMENT
Source: Cox Automotive 2
WEEKLY INITIAL CLAIMS TOTAL 36.6 MILLION OVER 8 WEEKS
Source: U.S. Department of Labor 3
CONSUMER SENTIMENT DECLINED SLIGHTLY LAST WEEK
Source: Morning Consult 4
Morning Consult’s Index of Consumer Sentiment on Monday was down 26% since February 29
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
1/1/20 1/8/20 1/15/20 1/22/20 1/29/20 2/5/20 2/12/20 2/19/20 2/26/20 3/4/20 3/11/20 3/18/20 3/25/20 4/1/20 4/8/20 4/15/20 4/22/20 4/29/20 5/6/20 5/13/20
ICS Value (7-Day Average)
CONSUMER SENTIMENT DECLINE AND PROGRESS VARY BY MARKET
Source: Morning Consult 5
Since February 29th Since May 11th
DELAYS COMING DOWN AND SHORTENING
Source: 2020 Cox Automotive COVID-19 Consumer Impact Study 6
Delaying Vehicle Purchase/Lease*
7%
17%
28%35% 34% 33% 34% 34% 31%
27%
Mar5-6
Mar13-14
Mar20-22
Mar27-28
Apr3-4
Apr10-11
Apr17-18
Apr24-25
May1-3
May15-16
Anticipated Delay in
Vehicle Purchase**(among those planning to delay purchase)
32%
14% 18%10% 8%
17%24%
11%
5%
11%10%
4% 5%
13% 2%
4%
32%43% 40%
36% 41%
39%37%
29%
30% 31% 33%
49% 46%
32%37%
56%
Mar20-22
Mar27-28
Apr3-4
Apr10-11
Apr17-18
Apr24-25
May1-3
May15-16
Not sure 6+ months 3-6 months Up to 2 months
*Among 6-month auto intendersQ10. Have you done, or do you think you will do any of the following because of the coronavirus? *Note: Added “have done” in Wave 4
Q17a1. How do you anticipate the coronavirus will change the timing of when you purchase or lease a vehicle, if at all?**Among 6-month auto intenders who will delay purchasing/leasing a vehicle
↑
↑
RETAIL TREND ESTIMATE - NEW
Source: Cox Automotive 7
-31.1%
-80.0%
-60.0%
-40.0%
-20.0%
0.0%
20.0%
40.0%
2/1
/20
20
2/8
/20
20
2/1
5/2
02
0
2/2
2/2
02
0
2/2
9/2
02
0
3/7
/20
20
3/1
4/2
02
0
3/2
1/2
02
0
3/2
8/2
02
0
4/4
/20
20
4/1
1/2
02
0
4/1
8/2
02
0
4/2
5/2
02
0
5/2
/20
20
5/9
/20
20
5/1
6/2
02
0
DAILY NEW RETAIL % CHG YoY vs SAME DAY OF WEEK
YoY % Chg 2019 YoY % Chg 2020
RETAIL TREND ESTIMATE - USED
Source: Cox Automotive 8
-5.8%
-80.0%
-60.0%
-40.0%
-20.0%
0.0%
20.0%
40.0%
2/1/202
0
2/8/20
20
2/15
/202
0
2/22
/202
0
2/29
/202
0
3/7/20
20
3/14
/202
0
3/21/2
02
0
3/28
/202
0
4/4/20
20
4/11
/202
0
4/18
/202
0
4/25
/202
0
5/2/20
20
5/9/202
0
5/16
/202
0
DAILY USED RETAIL % CHG YoY vs SAME DAY OF WEEK
YoY % Chg 2019 YoY % Chg 2020
MID-MAY MANHEIM INDEX SEES REBOUND FROM APRIL’S HISTORIC DROP
Source: Cox Automotive 9
-14.00%
-12.00%
-10.00%
-8.00%
-6.00%
-4.00%
-2.00%
0.00%
2.00%
4.00%
6.00%
8.00%
Jan
-97
Jul-
97
Jan
-98
Jul-
98
Jan
-99
Jul-
99
Jan
-00
Jul-
00
Jan
-01
Jul-
01
Jan
-02
Jul-
02
Jan
-03
Jul-
03
Jan
-04
Jul-
04
Jan
-05
Jul-
05
Jan
-06
Jul-
06
Jan
-07
Jul-
07
Jan
-08
Jul-
08
Jan
-09
Jul-
09
Jan
-10
Jul-
10
Jan
-11
Jul-
11
Jan
-12
Jul-
12
Jan
-13
Jul-
13
Jan
-14
Jul-
14
Jan
-15
Jul-
15
Jan
-16
Jul-
16
Jan
-17
Jul-
17
Jan
-18
Jul-
18
Jan
-19
Jul-
19
Jan
-20
Manheim Index - % Change M/M
DISCONNECT BETWEEN RETAIL AND WHOLESALE PRICES CLOSING MORE RAPIDLY
Source: Cox Automotive 10
Since peak in wholesale prices in week 11, model year 2017 wholesale prices are down 8.6% while retail prices are down only 2.2%
86%
88%
90%
92%
94%
96%
98%
100%
102%
104%
106%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51
MY 2017 Retail and Wholesale Price Indices (wk1=100)
2019 Retail Index 2020 Retail Index 2019 Wholesale Index 2020 Wholesale Index
DAYS’ SUPPLY COMING DOWN FROM HIGHS DURING CRISIS
Source: Cox Automotive 11
0.0 Days
20.0 Days
40.0 Days
60.0 Days
80.0 Days
100.0 Days
120.0 Days
140.0 Days
160.0 Days
01
/08/
20
01/1
1/2
0
01
/14/
20
01
/17/
20
01
/20/
20
01
/23/
20
01
/26/
20
01
/29/
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02
/01/
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02
/04/
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02
/07/
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02
/10/
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02
/13/
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02
/16/
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02
/19/
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02
/22/
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02
/25/
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02
/28/
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03
/02/
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/05/
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03
/08/
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03
/11/
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03
/14/
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03
/17/
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03
/20/
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03
/23/
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03
/26/
20
03
/29/
20
04
/01/
20
04
/04/
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04
/07/
20
04
/10/
20
04
/13/
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04
/16/
20
04
/19/
20
04
/22/
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04
/25/
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04
/28/
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/01/
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/04/
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/07/
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/10/
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/13/
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/16/
20
Inve
nto
ry D
ays'
Su
pp
ly
Days Supply Wholesale Inventory and Retail Inventory
Rolling 7 Day Supply Retail Rolling 7 day Supply Wholesale
COX AUTOMOTIVE LEADING INDICATORS
Source: Cox Automotive 12
Through Saturday, leads on Autotrader and Kelley Blue Book were up 35% y/y
Dealer.com continues to see both New and Used Vehicle Form Submissions outperform
Dealertrack unique credit applications on same-store basis were down 5% y/y last week,
another strong week of recovery
Xtime saw a 27% decrease y/y last week in consumers having their cars serviced, which was
another week of improvement
SALES IMPACT VARIES BY DMA AS EVIDENCED BY UNIQUE CREDIT APPS
Source: Cox Automotive 13
ZERO PERCENT FINANCING SHARE INCREASED IN NEW VEHICLE SALES
Source: Cox Automotive 14
0.00%
5.00%
10.00%
15.00%
20.00%
25.00%
Jan
-17
Feb
-17
Mar
-17
Ap
r-1
7
May
-17
Jun
-17
Jul-
17
Au
g-1
7
Sep
-17
Oct
-17
No
v-17
Dec
-17
Jan
-18
Feb
-18
Mar
-18
Ap
r-1
8
May
-18
Jun
-18
Jul-
18
Au
g-1
8
Sep
-18
Oct
-18
No
v-18
Dec
-18
Jan
-19
Feb
-19
Mar
-19
Ap
r-1
9
May
-19
Jun
-19
Jul-
19
Au
g-1
9
Sep
-19
Oct
-19
No
v-19
Dec
-19
Jan
-20
Feb
-20
Mar
-20
Ap
r-2
0
May
-20
0% APR Finance Share