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I LATIN AMERICANWORLD MODEL

I PROCEEDINGS OF THEI SECOND NASA

SYMPOSIUM ONGLOBAL MODELLINGG E R H A R T B R U C K M A N N EDITOROCTOBER 7 1 0 7 9 7 C P - 7 6 - 8

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LATIN AMERICANWORLD MODELPROCEEDINGS OF THESECOND IlASASYMPOSIUM O NGLOBAL MODELLING

GERHART BRUC KMA NN EDITOR

OCTOBER7 1 0 7 9 7 4

Views expressed herein are those of the contributors and not neces-sarily those o f the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis.

The Institute assumes full responsibility for minor editorial changes,

and trusts that these modifications have not abused the sense of the writers

ideas.

Internat iona l Inst i tu te for Applied Sy stem s Analysis

236Laxenburg Austria

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PREFACE

The mathem atical m odel presented here is normative; the concern is no t with predict-

ing what w ll occur if th e contem porary tendencies of m ankind continue, but rather with

sketching a way of arriving at the final goal of a world liberated from backwardness and

misery.

Any lo ng-term forecast about the development of m ankind is based o n a view of th e

world rooted in a particular value system. By assuming that the s tructure of the contempo-

rary world and the set of values which sustains it may be linearly projected toward the

future, we are in fact taking a position. In this sense, the difference which is usually made

betwee n a projective an d normative model is essentially fallacious.

The idea of constructing this model springs from a meeting held in 197 0 in Rio de

Janeiro sponsored jointly by the Club of Rome and the Instituto Universitario de

Pesquisas do Rio de Janeiro. The meeting analyzed and discussed the results of th e World

Model which was constructed by the group headed by Meadows at the Sloan School of

Management of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT). As a result of the dis-cusion of th e basic assum ptions of th e World Model 111, a group of L atin Americans att end ing

the m eeting decided to assign the Fundacion Bariloche of A rgentina the work of con struct-

ing a world model th at enc orporated t he views expressed at th e meeting.

A Committee was formed composed of Helio Jaguaribe, Carlos A. Mallmann, Enrique

Oteiza, Jorge S aba to, Osvaldo Sunkel, Victor Urquidi, an d Amilcar Herrera, which in

Septem ber 1 97 1 issued a paper giving in general terms the fundam ental hypothese s and

variables t o be used in the Bariloche Model. This preliminary project was su bm itt ed to the

annual meeting of the Consejo Latinoamericano de Ciencias Sociales (CLACSO), held in

Buenos Aires in December 197 1.

In m id-1971, a meeting was held at the Fund acion Bariloche, atten ded by t he majorityof th e members of th e Com mittee as well as by som e of those wh o would later be involved

as authors in the project. T he meeting defined the essential features of th e Model to b e

developed. The Co mm ittee appo inted a Project Director, an d entru sted him with the task of

forming the group of specialis ts who would construct the model. In the final phase of the

project Hugo Scolnik was appointe d Co-Director of th e project.

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While an individual au thor has repor ted on the m ain task assigned him, this in n o way

reflects the real participation t hat each ha d in the work. The hyp otheses and basic ph ilosophy

of the mod el were the product of a long a nd difficult collective task, and it is almost impos-

sible t o distinguish the individual contribution s.

The initial group which gave rise to the project constituted itself the reafter int o a

Consulting Com mittee, with the mission of periodically carrying o ut a critical analysis of the

progress of the work. Its criticisms and suggestions were a valuable cont ribut ion to the task

performed. I t is appropriate t o point o ut th at f inal responsibility for the ideas contained

in the model is wi th the authors .

An initial contribu tion was received from th e Club of Ro me t o carry out a s tudy onthe project s feasibility. Thereafter, th e execu tion of the project was financed in full by the

International D evelopment R esearch Centre (IDRC), Ottawa, C anada. The autho rs wish to

express their gratitude t o both institutio ns for the to tal academic freedom given them.

Amilcar Herrera

Buenos Aires, August, 1974

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T a b l e o f C o n t e n t s

P r e f a c e

Opening RemarksT j a l l i n g K o o p m a n s

P a r t I P a p e r s P r e s e n t e d a nd D i s c u s s i o n s

I n t r o d u c t i o n a n d B a s i c A s su m pt io n s

o f t h e Model

A m i l c a r H e r r e r a

D i s c u s s i o n

P e t e r S i n t R a pp o rt eu r

T he F u n c t i o n i n g o f t h e M odel a n dt h e Demographic Model

ugo S c o l n i k L u i s T a l a v e r a

U r b a n i z a t i o n a n d H ou si ng

Diana Mossovich

D i s c u s s i o nO l i v e r B e r n a r d i n i R a p p or t e ur

Non-Renewable N at ur a l Re so urc esa nd P o l l u t i o n M e th od sA m i l c a r H e r r e r a

T he Long-Term E v o l u t i o n o f t h e P r i c e sof EnergyC a r l o s E S u 6 r e z

D i s c u s s i o nP e t e r F l e i s s n e r R ap po rt eu r

The Food Se c t o rG i l b e r t o G a l l o p i n

L a t i n Amer ican World Model :

T h e o r e t i c a l S t r u c t u r e an dEconomic Sec to rG r a c i e l e C h i c h i l n is k y

D i s c u s s i o n

W o lf ga ng B l a a s R a p p o r t e u r

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I n f o r m a l D i s c u s s i o n E v en in g S e s s i o n )F e r e n c R a b a r , R a p p o r t e u r 3 7

T he E d u c a t i o n S e c t o rG i l d a Romero B r e s t 4 1

S p e c i a l R e p o r t o f A l t e r n a t i v e R unsG r a c i e l e C h i c h i l n i s k y a n d Hugo S c o l n i k 5 5

A s R e p o r t e d b y G. Bruckmann)

D i s c u s s i o n

W.D. Nordhaus , R ap por t e u r 57

P a r t : R e p o rt o n O t h e r M o d e l li n g E f f o r t s

P r o j e c t C R I S I S

R . C . C u r n o w . 61

F o r e c a s t i n g Work a t t h e S c i e n c e P o l i c y

R e s e a r c h U n i tJ o h n A - C l a r k 63

G l o b al M o d e ll in g i n R e l a t i o n t o t h eD e v e lo p i ng C o u n t r i e sM.S. Iy en ga r 167

Non-Economic and Economic F a c t o r s

i n S o c i e t a l D ev el op me nt : T heG e n e r a l P r o d u c t i o n F u n c t i o n

h r i s t o f G a s p a r i a n d J o h an n M i l l e n d o r f e r 175

M o d e l l i n g R e s o u r c e P r o bl e m s

.C . R o be r t s 189

IRADES

E l e on o r a B a r b i e r i M a s i ni 97

R e a l l o c a t i o n o f t h e World I n d u s t r yY. Kaya and M. I s h i k a w a 9 9

On a Mult i - Nat io n-Lin k Economic Model

A k i r a O n i s h i 49

A H e a l t h C a r e D e l i v e r y S ys te m- -o f t h e P e o p l e , b y t h e

P e o p le , f o r t h e P eo p l e

, I r w i n M. J a r e t t , A s s i s t e d by G a b r i e l l e M D 8 E l i a ) 2 7 1

A N ew Approach t o C i t i z e n I n vo lv e m en t i n E d u c a t i o n a nd

H e a l t h C a r e D e l i v e r y

H e l e n M. P e t e r s e n , G a b r i e l l e M. D 8 E l i a ,

i c h a e l J S c h u s s e l e , a n d I r w i n M. J a r e t t 291

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Problems of Population Doubling: The WorldFood ProblemHans Linnemann 5

Contribution to the General Discussion on Wednesday9 October 1 9 7 4 on the Latin American WorldModel Developed by the Fundaci6n BarilocheArgentinaManfred H Siebker 1 1

A Comparison of Models and an Ecological ModelSamir I Ghabbour 3 1 3

AppendixA Agenda. 3 2 1

ppendix B List of Participants and Observers 3 2 5

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Opening Remarks

T j a l l in g Koopmans

Le t me welcome you on beh al f of Pr of es so r Howard Ra if fawho r e g r e t s t h a t u n ex p ec t ed an d i m p e r a t i v e IIASA b u s i n e s s h a spreven ted h im f rom a t t e nd in g t h e Conference . However, h e haso f f e r e d u s some w r i t t e n s u g g e s t io n s a s t o t h e n a t u r e of t h eC o n fe r en c e . w an t t o welcome a l l who h a ve com e, i n t h e f i r s tp l a c e , P r o f e s s o r H e r r e r a a nd h i s c o l l e a g u e s f ro m t h e Fu n da ci 6nB a r i l o c h e who h av e made t h e i r i d e a s a v a i l a b l e f o r d i s c u s s i o na t t h i s C o nf er en c e. S e co n dl y, s h o u l d l i k e t o welcome t h ep a r t i c i p an t s f ro m many r e s ea r c h g r o u p s i n many co u n t r i e s whoa r e i n t e r e s t e d i n g l o b a l m o d e ll in g pr ob le m s. F i n a l l y , a word

o f w elcom e t o t h e IIASA s t a f f mem bers p r e se n t and t o t h o sewho w l l a t t e n d o r p a r t i c i p a t e i n t h e v a r i o us d i s c u ss i o ns .

The c ha i rm e n o f t h e s e s s i o n s w l l be IIASA s t a f f members;a t f i v e o f t h e s e s s i o n s we w l l d i s c u s s v a r i o u s p a p e r sp r e s e n t e d a n d t h e w ork o f t h e F un d ac id n B a r i l o c h e . P r o f e s s o rBruckmann i s r e s p o n s i b l e a t IIASA f o r t h e work o n g l o b a lmodel l ing , and w l l c h a i r t h e l a s t t h r e e me et in gs which w l l

sum mari ze t h e i n f o r m a t i o n p r e s en t ed and a s sem b l e r e se a r chg r o u p s f o r v a r i o u s w ork o n g l o b a l m o d e l li n g .

would l i k e t o r e a d t h e s t a t e m e n t o f P r o f e s s or R a i f f aon t h e n a t u r e o f IIA SA 's i n t e r e s t , i n v o lv e m en t , a nd s u p p o r to f t h e s e r i e s of c o n f e re n c e s o n g l o b a l m o d e ll in g o f w h ic ht h i s i s t h e s ec on d. t r u s t t h a t many o f you w er e p r e s e n t a tt h e f i r s t c o n f er e n c e d e v ot e d t o t h e work o f P r o f e s s o r s M es ar ov icand P e s t e l . P r o f e s s o r Ra if f a s s t a t e m e n t i n d i c a t e s I I A S A ' si n t e r e s t i n s u p p o r ti n g and f a c i l i t a t i n g t h e work of manyr e s e a r c h g r o u p s i n g l o b a l m o d e ll in g .

T h i s i s t h e s ec on d g l o b a l m o d e l l in g c o n f e r e n c e h o s t e d byIIASA. Whi le g lo b a l mo del l ing i s n o t on e o f o u r m a j or p r o j e c t s ,it i s s om e th in g we want t o mo ni to r a nd c u l t i v a t e t o s e r v e t h es c i e n t i f i c co mm unity . IIASA i s p r o v i d i n g a f or um , c o n c e n t r a t i n gon t h e meth odo log ica l a sp ec t s o f g l o b a l model s . Among ou r owns c i e n t i s t s a nd s u pp or ti ng i n s t i t u t i o n s t h e r e i s a g r e a td i f f e r e n c e o f o p i n i o n a bo u t t h e m e r i t s o f l a r g e - s c a l e g l o b a l

m o d e l l i n g ;it

r a ng e s f rom e c s t a t i c s u p p o r t t o n e g a t i ve s k e p t i ci s m

The c on ce rn i n a l l t h e s e g l o b a l m o de ll in g e f f o r t s i s f o rp ro bl em s o f m ankind i n t h e d i s t a n t f u t u r e , a nd t h o s e c o n c e r n sa r e co n ce r n s o f ev e r yb o d y. They f o cu s o n a s p e c t s o f f o o d ,a g r i c u l t u r e , and t h e q u a l i t y o f l i f e ; t h e r e a r e t h e no-growthand t h e f u l l - g r o w t h ad v o c a t e s , and we f e e l we sh o u l d n o t i g n o r et h i s f i e l d o f e nd ea vo r. We d o n o t w an t t o f a v o r p r em a t ur e ly

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one group over another. That is why we want to review in a

series of symposia various points of view, those of thedeveloped, the developing, the socialist, and the non-socialist

countries; we want to hear what the arguments are and to learn

about the various models. We want to obtain here the best

documentation of these modelling efforts so that advocates of

different points of view can come to understand other models.

The tendency is for too much rhetoric and not enough scientific

substance, and we are therefore trying to bolster the scientific

side by having clear documentation readily accessible. This

documentation, including computer software, will be made

available to all who are interested in the developed and

developing countries, in organizations, and so forth.

We are already working on segments of these problems from

the bottom up, for example our work in the fields of energyand water. Other attempts are being made from the top down.

We do not know how much top-down modelling we will do at IIASA

in the future. The present position is to find out what is

being done in the field and what has to be done in order to

ascertain what can be done here [at IIASA].

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PART I: PAPERS PRESENTED AND DISCUSSIONS

Introduction and Basic Assumptions of the Model

Amilcar Herrera

When tne complex characteristics of the contemporary world

are analyzed, it can be seen that almost two thirds of mankind

live in misery and scarcity. Only recently has the minority

begun to perceive the negative effects of over-consumption

produced by increasing economic growth that is destroying the

human and natural environment. This inequality, which has

divided the world into developed and undeveloped countries,does not recognize rigid political boundaries. Some privileged

minorities of Third World countries enjoy consumption levels

equivalent to those of the upper classes of the developed

countries, while considerable sectors of the population of the

developed countries have not yet reached the full satisfaction

of their most basic material and cultural needs.

The world is experiencing exponential population growth

and consumption and an accelerated increase in environmental

pollution, the two latter phenomena being produced mainly in

the industrialized countries. For the first time in history,

we are faced with global problems which can be solved only by

action on a global scale.

As a result of this new global approach, some of the ideas

of the classic economists such as Ricardo and Malthus are again

current; according to Malthus the scarcity of natural resources

would lead eventually to a decreasing social return of the

economic effort, with the consequent delay and eventual halt

of growth. He also predicted that the growth of the population

and consumption (which have reached unprecedented levels) will

exhaust the earth s natural resources; according to him this

will probably occur in the near future. Although the natural

resources may not be exhausted before a historically significative

time period, pollution and the progressive deterioration of the

environment will provoke the collapse of the ecosystem. In

both cases, the result would be the same: catastrophic haltof growth, a massive increase in the rate of mortality of the

population and the general lowering of the average standard of

life to conditions existing prior to the industrial revolution.

These ideas caused various reactions, which in general

terms might be divided into two types. On the one hand, there

is the conviction that only a solidarious effort of all mankind

can successfully confront the dual problems of increasing the

living standards of the disposesed masses, and generating

forms of progress and value systems to halt the deterioration

of the human and natural environment. The second reaction,

found mainly in the developed countries, makes population growth

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t h e f u n d am e n t al c a u s e o f wo r ld p r ob l em s . They b e l i e v e t h a tt h e c o n t r o l o f t h i s g ro w t h i s a n i n d i s p e n s a b l e p r e r e q u i s i t e f o ra v o i d in g t h e c a t a s t r o p h e . The c o n t r o l o f p o l l u t i o n , t h e r a t i o n a l

u s e o f t h e r e s o u r c e s , a nd t h e l i k e a r e o n l y c om ple men ta ryc o r r e c t i v e m ea su re s .

Those who s h a r e t h i s p o s i t i o n d o n o t d o ub t t h e c e n t r a lv a l u e s o f t h e d e v e lo p e d w o rl d . T h e i r m ai n c o n t e n t i o n so me ti me s

c l e a r l y s t a t e d i s t h a t t h e r e a r e n a t u r a l b a r r i e r s t o economic

g ro wt h an d t h e s e g i v e l i t t l e h op e t o t h e b ack wa rd c o u n t r i e s o f

r e a c h i n g t h e l e v e l s o f w e l f a r e e nj o ye d by t h e ad va nc ed c o u n t r i e s .

T he se f a t a l i s t i c s t a t e m e n t s c o n t a i n a fu nd am en ta l f a l l a c y .

W h e r e t h e r e i s a g l o b a l s e t o f p ro bl em s, t h e r e e x i s t s s u f f i c i e n t

d e g r e es o f f re edo m t h a t make p o s s i b l e d i f f e r e n t a l t e r n a t i v es o l u t i o n s . The s o l u t i o n c h os e n i s a l w a y s d e t e r m i n e d by t h eeconomic a nd p o l i t i c a l c o n d i t i o n s o f t h o s e i n v o lv e d i n t h ed e c i s i o n p r oc e s s .

When M al th us s t a t e d h i s t h e o r y o f s c a r c i t y ( wh ic h h a s a

s c i e n t i f i c b a s e t h a t i s n e i t h e r b e t t e r n o r w or se t h a n t h e on eon wh ich t h e c u r r e n t c a t a s t r o p h i s t i c p o s i t i o n s a r e f o un de d) ,

t h e s o l u t i o n h e p o s t u la t e d was n o t t h e o n l y p o s s i b l e o ne a sh i s t o r y l a t e r d e m o n st r a t es . H i s t o r y a l s o showed t h a t M a rx 's

r e f u t a t i o n , w hi ch com es a b o u t a f ew d e c a d e s a f t e r M al t h us , wasn o t v a l i d . Viewing t h e s i t u a t i o n w i t h h i s t o r i c a l pe r s p ec t i v e ,

we now see t h a t M a l t hu s ' p o s i t i o n w as a d va nt ag eo us t o t h e

i n t e r e s t s o f t h e B r i t i s h d om in an t c l a s s e s . M ar x' s r e f u t a t i o nd e r i v e s n o t s o much f rom a d i f f e r e n t a p p r e c i a t i o n o f r e a l i t y( wh ic h d i d n o t g o b ey ond a t h e o r y w i t h scarce e m p i r i c a l

f o u n da t i o n) b u t r a t h e r f ro m a d i f f e r e n t c o n c ep t io n o f t h e f o r c e s

t h a t d e t e r m i n e t h e d e ve l op m en t o f m an ki nd .

M a lt hu s ' t h e o ry was i m p l i c i t l y o r e x p l i c i t l y u s ed by t h ed om in an t c l a s s e s o f h i s t i m e a n d t i n f l u e n c e d s a l a r y an d

s o c i a l p o l i c i e s du r i n g most o f t h e n i n e t e e n t h c e n t u r y . t sf i n a l g o a l was t h e m ai nt en an ce o f t h e s t a t u s q uo .

T he f o r m u l a t i o n o f a l t e r n a t i v e s o l u t i o n s stemmed f ro m

a n i d e o l o g i c a l c l im a t e s t i m u la t e d by t h e s t r u g g l e o f s o c i a l

c l a s s e s a nd g r ou ps w i l l i n g t o r e j e c t a n o r d e r w h i ch k e p t t he m

a t subhum an l i f e l e v e l s . T he a c kn ow l ed g me n t t h a t m i s e r y Was ac on se qu en ce o f t h e p r e v a i l i n g s o c i a l o r g a n i z a t i o n , r a t h e r t h a n

a p r o d u c t o f a u n m o d i f i a b l e n a t u r a l l a w , b ec om es a d yn am ice l e m e n t o f c h an g e s i n c e t e m er g es a t a h i s t o r i c a l moment whent h e o pp r es s ed s o c i a l s e c t o r s become a war e o f t h e i r s t r e n g t ha n d o b j e c t i v e s . They a r e t h e o n e s who, a f t e r a n u n c e a si n g

s t r u g g l e , w i l l b e a b l e t o m od if y some o f t h e n e g a t i v e t r a i t so f t h e s o c i e t y g e ne r a t e d by t h e i n d u s t r i a l r e v o l u t i on .

I n many r e s p e c t s t h e c o nt em po ra ry s i t u a t i o n i s s i m i l a r .

E ven t h o u gh o n e may a ss um e t h a t t h e c u r r e n t c o u r s e o f m an ki nd

p r e s e n t s t h e d an ge r of a c o l l a p s e o r s e r i o u s l a c k s o f e q u i l i b r i u m

i n t h e n a t u r a l e co sy st em , t h i s do e s n o t i mp ly t h a t t h e r e i s as i n g l e s o l u t i o n t o a v o i d t h i s . The enormous c om pl ex it y o f t h e

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s o c i a l o r g a n i z a t i o n , t o g e t h e r w i t h t h e p r o g re s s o f s c i e n c e andt e c h n o lo g y , m eans t h a t t h e d e g r e e o f f re ed om p o s s i b l e f o r t h ehuman system i s a t p r e s e n t much g r e a t e r t h a n a t t h e b e g in n in g

o f t h e n i n e t e e n t h c e n t u r y .

T he s o l u t i o n s now b e i n g p r o p o s ed b y t h e a dv an ce d c o u n t r i e sa r e c o n d i t i o n e d , a s i n ~ a l t h u s ' i m e s by t h e ne ed t o p u t them

i n t o a p a r t i c u l a r so cio -e co no mic a nd p o l i t i c a l c o n t e x t . Theyr es po nd t o t h e i n t e r e s t s of t h e d e ve lo pe d c o u n t r i e s an d, o n l ya s a f u n c t i o n o f t h e s e i n t e r e s t s , a r e th e y po sed a s u n iq u e an dp r e d e t er m i n e d . Even t h e i r h u m a n i s t i c v e r s i o n ( t h a t w hi chp o s t u l a t e s a r e t u r n t o na t u re , w i t h t h e r e j e c t i o n o f t h e

s o p h i s t ic a t e d and m as si ve t e ch n o lo g i es a s i n t r i n s i c a l l yh a r mf u l) e x p r e s s e s t h e vi ew p oi n t of c o u n t r i e s a nd c e r t a i n s o c i a l

s e c t o r s w i t h i n them w hich a r e now p e r c e i v i n g t h e n e g a t i v e e f f e c t so f o v e r - co n s um p t io n a n d t h e p o t e n t i a l d a n g er o f l a r g e m a s se so f u nd er de ve lo pe d c o u n t r i e s g a i n i n g a c c e s s t o l e v e l s of w e l f a r e .However , t h e dan ge r i s n o t i n t h e c o n t i n u a t i o n o f t e c h n o l o g i c a lp r o g re s s b u t r a t h e r i n i t s s o c i a l u s e .

The B a r i l o ch e Model s t a r t s f ro m t h e a s s um p ti o n t h a t a tl e a s t f o r t h e f o r e s ee a b le f u t u r e , t h e main o b s t ac l e s t o t h eh ar m on io u s d ev el op m en t o f m an kind a r e n o t p h y s i c a l ; r a t h e r t h e ya r e s o c i a l and p o l i t i c a l i n n a t u r e and depend on t h e p r e s e n td i s t r i b u t i o n o f p ower b o th a t an i n t e r n a t i o n a l and n a t i o n a ll e v e l . T h i s i s m a n i f e s te d i n t h e g ro wi ng i n e q u a l i t y w o rl dw id e

an d w i t h i n e a ch c o u n t r y , p a r t i c u l a r l y w i t h i n t h e u n de rd ev el op edc o u n t r i e s . T h i s i n no way i g no r e s t h e f a c t t h a t i f t h e c u r r e n t

t e n d e n c i e s o f m ankind c o n t i n u e, t h e d e t e r i o r a t i o n o f t h e p h y s i c a lenvi ronment might become a prob lem of g r e a t magni tude . t w i l l

p r o ba b l y n o t a p p e a r i n t h e f or m o f a n a b s o l u t e e x h a u s t i o n o fno n-renew able n a t u r a l r e s o u r c e s , o r o f a l e t h a l i n c r e a s e i np o l l u t i o n . However, t h e g e n e r a l d e t e r i o r a t i o n of t h e n a t u r a lhuman en v i ro n m en t g e n e r a t e d b y a c i v i l i z a t i o n , w h ic h h a s a so n e o f i t s m ain t a r g e t s t o i n c r e a s e t h e co ns um pt io n o f m a t e r i a lg ood s up t o i r r a t i o n a l l i m i t s may c r e a t e l i v i n g c o n d i t i o n sa lm o st a s c a t a s t r o p h i c a s t h e Ma lt hu si an s c a r c i t y .

e m ust a c c ep t t h e f a c t t h a t ma nk in d' s e f f e c t o n t h ep h y s i c a l e n vi ro n me n t d ep en ds b a s i c a l l y o n t h e s o c i a l o r g a n i za -t i o n a l s t r u c t u r e s a d o pt e d, an d on t h e a c c e p te d v a l u e s s ys te m .

Much of t h e v a lu e s o f t h e p r e s e n t wo rl d a r e i n t r i n s i c a l l yd e s t r u c t i v e t o t h e e co sys t e m , j u s t a s t h ey a r e d e s t r u c t i v e t oman himself who i s o ver wh elm ed by a n e v e r i n c r e a s i n g a l i e n a t i o n .

M ankind a nd t h e phy s i c a l e nv i r onm e n t ( w her e t i s i n s e r t e d )c o n s t i t u t e a s i n g l e s ys te m , w hich c a n o n l y b e d e s c r i b e d u s i n gs o ci o -e c on o m ic a n d p h y s i c a l v a r i a b l e s .

Th e u n d er d e ve l op e d c o u n t r i e s , w hi ch a r e t h e main v i c t i m s

o f t h e s ys te m, f i n d t h em s el ve s i n a h i s t o r i c a l s i t u a t i o n w hichco mp el s them t o f o r m u l at e s o l u t i o n s t h a t t a k e i n t o a cc ou n t t h ep o s s i b l e d e g r e e s o f f re ed om ; t i s t h e s e c o u n t r i e s whosei n t e r e s t s c o i n c i d e w i th t h e n eed f o r c ha ng in g a s o c i a l s t r u c t u r ew h ic h o b j e c t i v e l y h i n d e r s t h e d e v el o p me n t o f m a nk in d.

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The following sections of the Report sketch a possibleworld in which there are new ways for human development. The

main objective is to initiate discussions which take into account

some of the most important factors involved in the global

problems faced by mankind.

BASIC ASSUMPTIONS

The proposals contained in the Model to overcome the

obstacles to the development of mankind start from the following

main premises:

a) The catastrophies predicted by some current models

whether mathematical or not) constitute an everydayreality for a great part of mankind. Starvation,

illiteracy, premature death, lack of adequate housing

miserable living conditions are the common fate of

the major part of the inhabitants of the under-developed

countries. We should not wait 80 or 100 years until

an eventual exhaustion of the natural resources, or

pollution make the great centers of the developed

countries feel their effects. Thus the priority goal

should be to avoid these catastrophies. The less

advanced societies cannot progress by copying the

patterns of the developed countries because socio-

political conditions can not be duplicated and these

patterns are not desirable.

b) destructive value system has produced the detrimental

and irrational use of natural resources and the

deterioration of the environment, both characteristics

mainly derived from the growth of consumption of the

developed nations and of the privileged minorities

of the developing countries. Thus solutions to these

problems cannot be found by applying corrective measures,

but rather by creating a society intrinsically compatible

with its environment.

C) NO policy for the preservation of the ecosystem or for

the reduction of consumption of natural resources can

be effectively carried out at the world level untileach human being has reached an acceptable level of

life. This does not mean that no action is needed

until this level has been reached; it does mean that

policies might be successful only in the transitional

stage, and to the extent that they form an integral

part of those measures aimed at improving the cultural

and material conditions of the submerged masses of

mankind.

d) The privileged sectors of mankind -essentially those

of the developed countries- must reduce their rate of

economic growth in order to decrease their misuse of

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n a t u r a l r e s o u r c e s a nd t h e en vi ro n me nt , and a l s o t o

c o u n t e ra c t t h e a l i e n a t i n g e f f e c t s of e x c es s i v econsumpt ion .

e ) The d ev el op ed c o u n t r i e s sh o ul d a l l o c a t e p a r t of t h ee co no mic s u r p l u s t o a i d T h i r d W orld c o u n t r i e s i no ve rc om in g t h e i r c u r r e n t s t a g n a t i o n ow in g i n p a r tt o p a s t a nd i n some c a s e s c u r r e n t , e x p l o i t a t i o n o ft h e s e c o u n t r i e s .

f ) The m ost r a t i o n a l method t o c o n t r o l t h e a c c e l e r a t e dg ro wt h of t h e p o p u l a t i o n i n t h e u n de rd e ve lo pe d c o u n t r i e si s t o i mprove t h e g e n e r a l l i v i n g c o n d i t i o n s .

The m od el h a s b ee n b u i l t a ro un d f o u r b a s i c a s s u m p ti o n s:

a ) The f i n a l g o a l p ur su e d i s a n e g a l i t a r i a n wo rld s o c i e t y ,b o th s o c i a l l y and i n t e r n a t i o n a l l y . The b a s i c p r i n c i p l ei s t h e acknowledgment t h a t each human be i ng , by t h emere f a c t of e x i s t e n c e ha s i n a l i e n a b le r i g h t s t o t h es a t i s f a c t i o n of a l l b a s i c n eeds- e . g . , f oo d , h e a l t h ,h o u s in g , e d u c a t i o n . T he se n e e ds a r e c o n s i d e r e d b a s i cb e ca u se w i t h o u t an a d eq u a te l e v e l of s a t i s f a c t i o n o fe ac h , a d i g n i f i e d a nd a c t i v e p a r t i c i p a t i o n i n t h ehuman r a c e b ecom es i m p o s s i b l e ; t h e y a r e a l s oc o n s id e r e d i n v a r i a n t , a s t h e y a p p l y t o e a c h human b e i n gi nd e pe n de nt of h i s b e lo n g in g t o a g iv e n c u l t u r e , h i so r i g i n , r a c e , s e x , and s o f o r t h .

b ) W hile t h e r e a r e many o t h e r a s p i r a t i o n s and ne e d s, t h e yd i f f e r q u a l i t a t i v e l y from t h e s e b a s i c n ee d s. TheModel does no t fo rm al i ze them, s i nc e th e mode o fs a t i s f a c t i o n of many of t h e s e v a r i e s w i t h ea ch s o c i e t y

a nd w i t h t i m e ; a l s o t h e Model d o e s n o t w i s h t o d e t e r m i n ethem.

C ) Each human be in g p a r t i c i p a t e s i n f u l l i n a l l s o c i a ld e c i s i o n s . T h i s i s a n e s s e n t i a l c o n d i t i o n t h a t p r e ve n tse q u a l i t y f ro m b ec om in g a m ere m a t e r i a l l e v e l i n g .

d ) The s o c i e t y i n t h e Model i s a n o n- con s um i st s o c i e t y ,t h a t i s a s o c i e t y i n w h ic h c on su m pt io n i s n o t a v a l u e

i n i t s e l f .

The l e v e l s o f s a t i s f a c t i o n o f t h e b a s i c ne ed s d e s c r ib e d i ne a c h of t h e v a r i o u s s e c t o r s of t h e Model s h o u l d n o t b e c o n s i d e r e dt h e d e s i d er a t u m f o r t h e f u t u r e of m ankind; t h e y r e p r e s e n t o n l ya re a s o n a b le g o a l , i n a c c or d w i t h p r e s e n t p o s s i b i l i t i e s . Once

t h e p r o po se d l e v e l s a r e a c h i e v ed , w ha t h ap pe ns t o t h e e c on om ics u r p l u s o r how t h e s u r p l u s w l l be used w l l d e p e n d o n t h ed e c i s i o n s t a k e n by a s o c i e t y a l r e a d y l i b e r a t e d f ro m b ac kw ar dn es sand m i s e ry . The Model d o e s n o t a t t e m p t t o p r e d i c t t h e s e

d e c i s i o n s , b u t t i s l i k e l y t h a t t h e y i nc l ud e su ch c u l t u r a lo p t i o n s a s i n c r e a si n g t h e l e i s u r e t i m e, r a t h e r t h a n an i n c r e as e

i n t h e c o ns um pt io n o f m a t e r i a l g oo ds .

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In summary the Model assumes that the egalitarian

satisfactions of the basic needs and the participation of allindividuals in the social decisions are indispensableprerequisites for full access to all higher forms of humanactivity. It aims at a mobilizing goal; it does not attemptto formulate a complete theory which defines either system ofsocial organizations or a plan pre-established for thesepurposes. Such a claim would be illusory dangerous and probablyimpossible to substantiate. All historical progresssimultaneously solves problems and generates new ones; thusposing new possibilities and challenges.

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8/21/2019 CP-76-008


8/21/2019 CP-76-008


8/21/2019 CP-76-008


8/21/2019 CP-76-008


Date post:	07-Aug-2018
Category:	Documents
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CP-76-008

Documents