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New Horizons in Economic and Social Rights Monitoring, Madrid, 2012
Crafting Policy Regimes that Advance Economic and Social Rights
By Susan Randolph & Elizabeth Kaletski
This research is funded in part by NSF grant # 1061457
3/23/2012
New Horizons in Economic and Social Rights Monitoring, Madrid, 2012
Objectives
1. Adapt the SERF Index to take into account Structural characteristics historical policy legacy Separately for each component Right
Index.
3/23/2012
New Horizons in Economic and Social Rights Monitoring, Madrid, 2012
Objectives
2. Identify policy regimes promoting State’s compliance with their obligations of result under the ICESCR ↑policymakers’ ability to craft policy
regimes meeting commitments under the ICESCR
provide advocates with information on policies that undermine ESR
3/23/2012
New Horizons in Economic and Social Rights Monitoring, Madrid, 2012
SERF Methodology: APF Frontier
3/23/2012
Achievement Possibility Frontier for Primary School Completion Rate
Construction of the SERF Index
Indicator Performance Score 2
APF 2Indicator 2
Indicator 1 Indicator Performance Score 1
APF 1
Right IndexAverage
SERF IndexWeighted Average of Right IndicesWeighted Average of Right Indices
Wake Forest University, February 16,2012
5
New Horizons in Economic and Social Rights Monitoring, Madrid, 2012
Basic Approach
3/23/2012
Rri = α + βsSsi + γpPpi + δcCci +εi
Where Rr is a vector of r right indices, specifically, the Core
International SERF Index or one of the underlying component Right Indices (education, health, housing, food, work)
Ss is a vector of s structural characteristics Pp is a vector of p policy variables Cc is a vector of c control variables α is the intercept ,and β, γ, δ are the coefficients of S, P, and
C, respectively ε is the error term and i is an index for country
Data source Rights Indices: SERF Index Historical Trend Data
New Horizons in Economic and Social Rights Monitoring, Madrid, 2012
Factors influencing Resource Needs.
3/23/2012
Structural & Historical Policy Legacy Factors Economies of Scale in Infrastructure
provision Women’s empowerment & knowledge Income inequality Malaria Prevalence & Risk
New Horizons in Economic and Social Rights Monitoring, Madrid, 2012
Economies of Scale in Infrastructure Provision
3/23/2012
Indicator: ruralpop = rural population as a % of total population
Data Source: World Development Indicators
New Horizons in Economic and Social Rights Monitoring, Madrid, 2012
Women’s empowerment & knowledge
3/23/2012
Indicator: GenderIneqPrimary = the ratio of female to male primary enrollment (%) lagged 10 years
Range: 0 (only males in primary school) to 100 (equal % males and females enrolled) >100 (higher % females than males enrolled).
Data Source: UNESCO via World Development Indicators
New Horizons in Economic and Social Rights Monitoring, Madrid, 2012
Income Inequality
3/23/2012
Indicator: Gini = Gini Coefficient
Range: 0 (no inequality) to 100
Data Sources:
Primary: UNU-WIDER World Income Inequality Database, Version 2.0c, May 2008
Secondary: World Development Indicators
New Horizons in Economic and Social Rights Monitoring, Madrid, 2012
Malaria & HIV Prevalence & Risk
3/23/2012
Indicator Malaria Risk: popmalaria = % population living in areas with malaria
Range: 0 (none) to 1 (100% of population)
Data source: Interpolated from Gallup, John L. and Jeffrey Sachs, with Andrew Mellinger, “Geography and Economic Development
New Horizons in Economic and Social Rights Monitoring, Madrid, 2012
Impact Economies of Scale, Women’s empowerment & knowledge, Income inequality, and Malaria Risk
on Ability to Ensure ESR
3/23/2012
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)
VARIABLES serf education health housing food work ruralpop -0.180*** -0.0365 -0.159*** -0.284*** -0.273*** -0.186**
(0.0453) (0.0583) (0.0362) (0.0464) (0.0623) (0.0817)
genderineqprimary 0.254*** 0.402*** 0.405*** 0.318*** 0.204*** -0.0737(0.0513) (0.0768) (0.0451) (0.0608) (0.0747) (0.0974)
gini -0.418*** -0.788*** -0.307*** -0.592*** -0.239* -0.411**(0.0896) (0.109) (0.0670) (0.0866) (0.126) (0.162)
popmalaria -9.051*** -11.82*** -12.65*** -13.25*** -5.551* -13.57***(2.210) (3.427) (1.986) (2.725) (3.197) (4.419)
Constant 80.54*** 69.24*** 65.59*** 89.38*** 82.50*** 115.3***(6.493) (8.637) (5.136) (6.827) (9.177) (11.65)
Observations 169 308 278 319 215 230R-squared 0.507 0.417 0.670 0.599 0.274 0.154Standard errors in parentheses. ***p<0.01, **p<0.05, *p<0.10
New Horizons in Economic and Social Rights Monitoring, Madrid, 2012
Things to Note
3/23/2012
All 4 factors have statistically significant impact on SERF Index & underlying right indices
Each factor has the greatest impact on a different right Ruralpophousing GenderInequPrimaryhealth GiniEducation Popmalariawork
New Horizons in Economic and Social Rights Monitoring, Madrid, 2012
Impact Economies of Scale, Women’s empowerment & knowledge, Income inequality, and Malaria Risk on Ability to Ensure ESR
3/23/2012
Variable Serf Education
Health
Housing
Food
Work
Ruralpop (+15.65)
-2.77 -- -2.61 -4.12 -3.99
-2.72
Genderineqprimary (-21.2)
-5.34 -8.44 -8.76 -6.38 -4.16
--
Gini(+6.5)
-2.6 -4.94 -2.28 -3.27 -1.18
-2.11
Popmalaria(+0.567)
-5.14 -5.88 -7.01 -6.90 -3.12
-7.58
New Horizons in Economic and Social Rights Monitoring, Madrid, 2012
Adjusting the Benchmarks to Reflect Structural Characteristics & Historical Policy Legacy
3/23/2012
Adjustment Approach: Use the regression equations to compute countries
predicted scores
New performance index score: (Actual Score/predicted Score) 100 = %
benchmark achieved
New Horizons in Economic and Social Rights Monitoring, Madrid, 2012
Identifying Policy Regimes Promoting ESR
3/23/2012
Lessons from adjusting benchmarks to account for countries’ structural characteristics and historical legacy. policies enhancing rural productivity and
employment opportunities, policies promoting women’s empowerment and
women’s education, development strategies promoting equitable
growth, and policies focused on eradicating malaria and
HIV are indicated.
New Horizons in Economic and Social Rights Monitoring, Madrid, 2012
Identifying Policy Regimes Promoting ESR
3/23/2012
Other Issues Considered So Far Political stability Institutions
Democratic political institutions Role Government Provision
Government Expenditures Foreign Resource Flows
Foreign aid Stabilization and Structural Adjustment
Development Strategy Resource Extraction
New Horizons in Economic and Social Rights Monitoring, Madrid, 2012
Identifying Policy Regimes Promoting ESR
3/23/2012
Approach Rri = α + βsSsi + γpPpi + δcCci +εi
Where Rr is a vector of r right indices, specifically, the Core
International SERF Index or one of the underlying component Right Indices (education, health, housing, food, work)
Ss is a vector of s structural characteristics
Pp is a vector of p policy variables
Cc is a vector of c control variables α is the intercept ,and β, γ, δ are the coefficients of S, P, and C,
respectively ε is the error term and i is an index for country
Data source Rights Indices: SERF Index Historical Trend Data
New Horizons in Economic and Social Rights Monitoring, Madrid, 2012
3/23/2012
Serf Education
Health
Housing Food Work
Political Stability
ns ns ns ns ns ns
Democratic Inst.
ns + ns ns ns +
Gov. Expenditures
ns ns + ++ ++ ns
Foreign Resources
ODA ++ ns ++ ns ++ ++
World Bank Structural Adj.
++ ++ ++ ns ns ns
IMF Structural Adj.
ns -- -- - ns ns
Development Strategy
Resource Extraction
ns ns ns - ns --
New Horizons in Economic and Social Rights Monitoring, Madrid, 2012
3/23/2012
Thank you
New Horizons in Economic and Social Rights Monitoring, Madrid, 2012
Political Stability
3/23/2012
Indicators: Conflict10: dummy variable = 0 if free of major
conflict in previous 10 years Source: Uppsala Conflict Data program and Center for the Study
of Civil Wars, International Peace Research Institute, Oslo, “UCDP/PRIO Armed Conflict Dataset Codebook: Version 4-2009
Conflict5: dummy variable = 0 if free of major conflict in previous 10 years
Source same as above
Wgi_politicalstability: Worldwide Governance Indicator Political Stability and Absence of Violence/Terriorism. (Perceptions of likelihood government will be destabilized or
overthrown by unconstitutional or violent means) Higher implies more stable Source: The Worldwide Governance Indicators, 2011
New Horizons in Economic and Social Rights Monitoring, Madrid, 2012
Political Stability
3/23/2012
VARIABLES serf education health housing food work
Political Stability
wgi_politicalstability -1.589 -1.569 -0.109 0.753 0.982 1.101
(1.160) (1.527) (0.966) (1.149) (1.554) (2.248)
Observations 140 232 211 239 171 182
R-squared 0.537 0.435 0.641 0.604 0.320 0.159
R-squared 0.537 0.441 0.650 0.605 0.312 0.156Standard errors in parentheses. ***p<0.01, **p<0.05, *p<0.10
New Horizons in Economic and Social Rights Monitoring, Madrid, 2012
Democratic Political Institutions
3/23/2012
Indicators Wgi_voiceandaccountability: Worldwide
Governance Indicator Voice and Accountability (Perceptions of extent to which a country’s citizens are able to
participate in selecting their government, there is freedom of expression, association, and the media) Higher score implies greater voice Source: The Worldwide Governance Indicators, 2011
Genderinequalityparliament: % seats held by women in national parliaments,
Source: United Nations Millennium Development Goals Indicators
New Horizons in Economic and Social Rights Monitoring, Madrid, 2012
Democratic Political Institutions
3/23/2012
VARIABLES serf education health housing food workDemocratic Political Institutions
wgi_voiceandaccount -0.310 1.257 1.026 1.779 1.155 4.408*
(1.450) (1.644) (1.046) (1.246) (1.817) (2.586)
Observations 140 232 211 239 171 182
R-squared 0.530 0.434 0.643 0.607 0.320 0.171
genderinequalityparliament 0.105 0.223* -0.0314 0.106 -0.000278 -0.00183
(0.133) (0.134) (0.0887) (0.103) (0.159) (0.247)
Observations 139 229 208 236 169 179
R-squared 0.537 0.441 0.650 0.605 0.312 0.156Standard errors in parentheses. ***p<0.01, **p<0.05, *p<0.10
New Horizons in Economic and Social Rights Monitoring, Madrid, 2012
Role of Government Provision
3/23/2012
Indicators Govexpendtotal10 & Govexpendtotal5: 10 and 5 year
average, respectively, of general government current expenditures for purchases of goods and services as % of GDP. Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators
Govexpendedu10 & Govexpendhealth5: 10 and 5 year average, respectively, of total public spending on education as % of GDP. Source: UNESCO
Govexpendhealth10 & Govexpendhealth5: 10 and 5 year average, respectively of public health expenditure as % of GDP. Source: World Health Organization National health Account
database supplemented by country data via World Development Indicators.
New Horizons in Economic and Social Rights Monitoring, Madrid, 2012
Role of Government Provision
3/23/2012
VARIABLES serf education health housing food work
govexpendtotal5 0.0764 0.0793 -0.418*** 0.378** 0.515** 0.271
(0.146) (0.196) (0.110) (0.152) (0.202) (0.264)
Observations 167 301 270 308 208 224
R-squared 0.510 0.409 0.690 0.602 0.290 0.136
govexpendtotal5 0.0764 -0.0311 -0.705*** 0.378** 0.515** 0.271
(0.146) (0.395) (0.154) (0.152) (0.202) (0.264)
govexpendedu5 0.354
(1.134)
govexpendhealth5 1.049*
(0.589)
Observations 167 169 206 308 208 224
R-squared 0.510 0.396 0.681 0.602 0.290 0.136Standard errors in parentheses. ***p<0.01, **p<0.05, *p<0.10
New Horizons in Economic and Social Rights Monitoring, Madrid, 2012
Foreign Resource Flows
3/23/2012
Indicators Oda5 and oda10: five and ten year annual average of net
official development assistance (ODA) received as a % of GNI. Source: World Development indicators
Wbsap: dummy variable equal to 1 if a country received a World Bank structural adjustment loan during the 5 year period prior to the start of the decade or during the decade concerned. Source: Abouharb, M. Rodwan and David Cingranelli (2007) Human
Rights and Structural Adjustment. Cambridge: Cambridge University press.
Imfsap: dummy variable equal to 1 if a country received an IMF loan during the 5 year period prior to the start of the decade or during the decade concerned. Source: Abouharb, M. Rodwan and David Cingranelli (2007) Human
Rights and Structural Adjustment. Cambridge: Cambridge University press
New Horizons in Economic and Social Rights Monitoring, Madrid, 2012
Foreign Resource Flows
3/23/2012
VARIABLES serf education health housing food work
oda10 0.219** 0.227-
0.351*** -0.0462 0.300** 0.874***
(0.0935) (0.156) (0.0908) (0.135) (0.138) (0.189)
Observations 166 228 219 237 202 208
R-squared 0.501 0.308 0.619 0.405 0.247 0.179
wbsap 5.828** 7.324*** 4.604*** 1.274 5.067 -0.750
(2.253) (2.811) (1.737) (2.272) (3.093) (3.917)
imfsap -3.047 -9.922*** -3.930** -4.361* -5.188 5.555
(2.403) (2.934) (1.812) (2.366) (3.372) (4.397)
Observations 168 305 277 317 214 229
R-squared 0.522 0.439 0.680 0.601 0.283 0.158Standard errors in parentheses. ***p<0.01, **p<0.05, *p<0.10
New Horizons in Economic and Social Rights Monitoring, Madrid, 2012
Development Strategy: Resource Extraction
3/23/2012
Indicators Resourcerents5 and resourcerents10: Five and ten
year, respectively annual average of total natural resource rents as a % of GDP. (measured as the sum of oil, natural gas, coal, mineral and forest rents.) Source: World Bank World Development Indicators, from
World Bank “The Changing Wealth of Nations: Measuring Sustainable Development in the new Millennium.”, 2011
New Horizons in Economic and Social Rights Monitoring, Madrid, 2012
Development Strategy: Resource Extraction
3/23/2012
VARIABLES serf education health housing food work
resourcerents5 -0.0577 -0.0388 -0.0809 -0.130* -0.125 -0.398***
(0.0773) (0.0930) (0.0536) (0.0721) (0.0877) (0.135)
Observations 169 304 277 315 214 229
R-squared 0.508 0.408 0.673 0.595 0.281 0.183Standard errors in parentheses. ***p<0.01, **p<0.05, *p<0.10